Energy & Materials Sector

• Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
• Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
• The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

• Occidental’s USD 9.7 billion OxyChem divestment fast-tracks debt reduction but removes a steady earnings buffer, leaving the company more exposed to volatile oil market cycles.
• The sale strengthens Occidental’s balance sheet and strategic focus on upstream operations but sacrifices diversification, as the chemicals unit provided resilient cash flows during oil downturns.
• Executing the divestment amid a chemical sector downcycle appears poorly timed. Occidental will sell a profitable asset at a discount while crude prices remain subdued.

• Fresnillo plc’s latest half-year financial report reflects a mix of strategic moves and operational performance outcomes that define the company’s current standing and future outlook in the precious metals market.
• The company’s underlying strengths are seen through its robust production capabilities, strategic asset management, and responses to market conditions.
• However, there are also significant challenges and considerations that investors need to be mindful of.

• Crude oil futures were under pressure again Tuesday despite an easing of tensions between the US and China, with benchmarks unable to hold early-week gains.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.53/b (2005 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $63.32/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.84/b against a previous close of $59.49/b.
• Prices were again testing multi-month lows, as short-term volatility persisted amid tariffs, sanctions and OPEC+ policy.

• Equity Metals Corporation offers a compelling investment profile as a junior explorer with a high-grade flagship asset, strong financial discipline, and multiple near-term catalysts.
• The company is advancing its Silver Queen silver-gold project in British Columbia while expanding its portfolio through strategic acquisitions like the Arlington gold-copper-silver property.
• With a proven track record of resource growth, efficient capital deployment, and diversified commodity exposure, Equity Metals is well-positioned to deliver shareholder value in a rising metals market.

• Equity Metals Corporation offers a compelling investment profile as a junior explorer with a high-grade flagship asset, strong financial discipline, and multiple near-term catalysts.
• The company is advancing its Silver Queen silver-gold project in British Columbia while expanding its portfolio through strategic acquisitions like the Arlington gold-copper-silver property.
• With a proven track record of resource growth, efficient capital deployment, and diversified commodity exposure, Equity Metals is well-positioned to deliver shareholder value in a rising metals market.

• TransAtantic Petroleum is acquiring 50% WI in the West Thrace Production and Exploration Licences, currently held 63% by Valeura and 37% by Pinnacle.
• In exchange, TransAtlantic will fund the re-entry of the Devepinar-1 well—including hydraulic stimulation and testing of the Kesan zones (4.7–4.8 km depth)—for up to US$2 mm.
• Operations could commence in 4Q25.

• Viper Energy Partners LP is a leading mineral and royalty company with a strategic focus on the oil-rich Permian Basin, positioning it for continued growth through targeted acquisitions and organic development from its operators.
• The company operates under a capital-light business model, acquiring and managing mineral interests in oil and natural gas properties. This approach eliminates direct exposure to drilling and operating costs and risks, allowing for scalable growth and financial flexibility.
• Recent strategic acquisitions, notably the merger with Sitio Royalties, are expected to significantly enhance cash distributions, increase production, and solidify Viper’s position as a leading unconventional royalty company.

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• The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November. 
• China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
• Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.

• Shares of fertilizer giant Mosaic Co. have been under significant pressure as the company grapples with dual setbacks — unplanned phosphate plant outages and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds tied to U.S. trade tariffs.
• On October 10, the company disclosed a meaningful production shortfall in its phosphate segment for Q3 2025, citing mechanical issues and utility interruptions that pushed preliminary volumes down to just 1.7 million tons, well below expectations.
• This comes on top of a challenging landscape in which U.S. tariffs have eroded the competitiveness of American fertilizer exports.

• US base oils demand could be steadier amid rangebound prices and signs of more muted pressure from any surplus supply.
• US base oils demand typically rises in month of October from September, before falling in month of November.
• Demand could be lower than usual as buyers and distributors work down stocks built up as buffer against weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK)’s share price has surged by 92% to reach HK$137.4 per share since its IPO price of HK$71.59 per share.
• Zijin Gold now trades at a 61% premium to the comps’ average EV/EBITDA valuation multiple in 2026. 
• One could argue that this excessive valuation multiple is a bit too aggressive despite higher growth prospects. Therefore, on a relative valuation basis, we would not chase after Zijin Gold. 

• Viper Energy is sharpening its strategic lens on the Permian Basin as it evaluates potential sales of non-core, non-Permian assets.
• Following its recent drop-down transaction with Diamondback and the pending merger with Sitio Royalties, management has signaled a clear intent to focus on concentrated royalty acreage in the Permian, which offers both operational alignment and long-term production visibility.
• The Sitio deal—expected to close imminently—will significantly expand Viper’s inventory depth and increase its scale, but it also introduces assets outside the Permian footprint.

• Pilbara shipments are tracking the lower end of guidance, with cyclone recovery hinging on a strong Q4.
• Simandou shipments stay on schedule, adding supply pressure amid weak Chinese steel demand and negative margins.
• China’s diversification and RMB trade shift threaten Rio’s pricing power, demanding agility and strategic adaptation.

• Crude oil futures opened the week slightly firmer as benchmarks recovered some of Friday’s steep losses, but markets are set to remain volatile amid renewed tariff threats between the US and China.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.32/b (1415 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $62.73/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.67/b against a previous close of $58.90/b.
• Crude prices plunged on Friday as part of a broad-based financial selloff following renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing after US President Trump threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods, citing “hostile” export controls on critical minerals.

• What you need to know: • Capitan announced high-grade assay results at the Cruz de Plata silver-gold project in Durango, Mexico.
• • The highlight high-grade silver intercept was reported of 1,541 g/t AgEq over 1.5m within a broader interval of 202 g/t AgEq over 18.3m.
• • A new key target was identified, known as the Peñoles Fault.

• Asia’s base oils demand could stay more cautious as signs of healthy stocks and rising supplies curb urgency to buy.
• Any need to move surplus supplies to markets beyond Asia could put pressure on adjustment in prices to make those shipments more feasible.
• Any such moves, and the subsequent prospect of additional price-pressure, could add to attraction of procuring smaller volumes more frequently.

• Deutsche Rohstoff AG is a German-based holding company with a primary focus on the exploration and production of oil and gas in the United States, which constitutes the core of its revenue generation.
• The company exhibits a strong long-term growth trajectory in revenue and net income, however, it is coupled with high volatility and consistently negative free cash flow due to significant capital expenditures in its U.S. oil and gas operations.
• Valuation appears attractive with low multiples compared to peers, but this is balanced by the inherent risks of commodity price fluctuations, declining margins from their 2022 peak, and the capital-intensive nature of its E&P activities.

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• Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
• The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
• China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.

• The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
• The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
• There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.

• Tether has bought significant amounts of gold, acquiring 19 tonnes in the first half of the year
• Gold prices have surged, surpassing $4000 an ounce and hitting $6000 Australian dollars per ounce
• The market is seeing a shift towards gold as a safe haven asset amidst ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties

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• Gold and bitcoin are both scarce assets that are gaining renewed attention as investors seek resilience in their portfolios
• Gold has a long history as a store of value and tends to come into focus during uncertain times, while bitcoin is a newer digital asset with evolving investor access
• Factors such as economic growth, geopolitical risks, and interest rates can impact the attractiveness of gold and other non-yielding assets in a portfolio

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• Crude oil futures were sharply lower Friday, extending the previous session’s losses as oversupply fears and tariffs returned, while the Gaza ceasefire was seen eroding the risk premium.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.71/b (2003 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $65.02/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.81/b against a previous close of $61.51/b.
• Thursday’s selloff had already wiped out most of the week’s steady gains amid a growing chorus flagging concerns over a significant oil surplus for this quarter and beyond, while additional losses Friday dragged benchmarks down to fresh four-month lows.

• Rays Power Infra (1638839D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Anand Rathi and Pantomath Capital.
• Rays Power Infra (RPI) is a renewable energy company that provides utility-scale, end-to-end solar energy solutions. 
• Its operations are structured around two primary business models – EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) and Co-Development.

• BHP shares retesting the August low, then rallying to a recent high suggests the stock is poised to move higher, Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable reports.

• Sidara’s 30p firm offer remains live but hinges on three gates — the 23 Oct GM, a clean FY24 audit, and A&E execution — all non-waivable and binary.
• Borrowing-Limit approval has become a pre-audit chokepoint; failure would block the “going-concern” opinion and terminate the scheme before the formal Exceptional Conditions are tested.
• Suspension limits trading but not lending: existing borrows persist in CREST, with recall and fee spikes expected around October–December catalysts as counterparties rebalance exposure.

• Forrestania Resources is a junior exploration company with a diversified portfolio of gold, lithium, nickel, and copper projects strategically located in the well-endowed mineral belts of Western Australia.
• The company is actively advancing its key projects through exploration drilling, resource definition, and strategic acquisitions, with a recent focus on consolidating gold assets in the Forrestania and Southern Cross regions.
• As a pre-revenue exploration company, Forrestania is reliant on capital markets to fund its activities, making its financial performance and future prospects intrinsically linked to exploration success and commodity market sentiment.

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• The first investment under the US$100 mm Zephyr Hawk partnership has been approved, comprising a US$2.5 mm commitment fully funded by Zephyr’s partner.
• The investment secures a share in a work programme targeting up to 13 wells.
• Zephyr estimates life-of-well undiscounted cashflows of ~US$1.8 mm, net to its interest.

• Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
• The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
• There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.
• Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.
• Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.

• Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Australian market closed, but several ASX-listed companies were swept up in the decline through dual listings or U.S.-traded ADRs.
• This Insight looks at the impact on prominent S&P/ASX 200 constituents — including BHP, CSL, and major banks. While some companies showed limited movement, others, such as BHP, experienced sharper declines.
• Why Read: Understand where the Australian market might be headed when trading resumes after the weekend.

• EQ Resources is repositioning itself as a key Western tungsten producer by restarting and expanding its flagship Mt Carbine mine in Queensland, Australia, aiming to capitalize on a tightening global market.
• The company is currently in a high-growth, high-spend phase, evidenced by significant revenue increases from a low base, alongside substantial net losses and negative operating cash flows as it invests in ramping up production.
• Favorable market dynamics, including strong demand from the aerospace, defense, and electronics sectors and China’s dominance and export restrictions on tungsten, provide a strong tailwind for EQR’s strategy to become a reliable ex-China supplier.

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• Johnson Matthey is undergoing a significant strategic transformation, sharpening its focus on the core, high-margin businesses of Clean Air and PGM Services by divesting its Catalyst Technologies arm.
• The company is a global leader in platinum group metals (PGM) chemistry, which underpins its competitive advantage in automotive catalysts and PGM refining and recycling, positioning it for growth in the hydrogen economy.
• While facing headwinds from the long-term decline of internal combustion engines, the company’s strategy emphasizes enhanced cash generation, cost savings, and increased shareholder returns, signaling a shift towards a leaner, more agile operational model.

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• IsoEnergy is a diversified uranium exploration and development company with a world-class, high-grade asset in Canada’s Athabasca Basin, complemented by a portfolio of permitted, past-producing mines in the United States, offering a compelling combination of long-term growth potential and near-term production optionality.
• The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the positive fundamentals of the uranium market, which is experiencing a resurgence driven by the global push for clean, secure, and reliable nuclear energy, leading to a potential supply deficit and higher uranium prices.
• With a strong balance sheet, strategic backing from major shareholder NexGen Energy, and a portfolio of assets in top-tier mining jurisdictions, IsoEnergy is poised to advance its projects towards production and create significant shareholder value.

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• Trade call: Long the 2028 SLB for a likely step-up from at latest May 22, 2026, hedge duration, exit post vendor field updates in May 2026.
• Probability of rate step-up: Single KPI miss and step-up path most likely, with intensity tight and engagement near threshold, optionality crystallizes into tactical carry, not credit stress.
• Catalyst path: Step-up mechanics, assurance, and vendor field updates create a defined trading window, see uplifted coupon count and cash cost below.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!
• We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.

• Iron ore futures rallied as Chinese steel mills restocked post-Golden Week holiday, despite weak margins and persisting trade policy uncertainty.
• Managed money participants expanded net long positions, signalling sustained bullish conviction.
• The 65%-62% spread fell sharply while the 62%-58% spread surged, marking pronounced divergence in grade spreads following the post-holiday sessions. 

• Exports plunge 43% from February peak, hitting mid-year lows  
• Trump tariffs, weak Chinese demand deepen pressure on shipments  
• Thailand players, well-prepared for EUDR, upset over the recent update from the EU 

• On the latest WTR Small-Cap Spotlight, we were joined by Bruce Fleming, Chief Executive Officer of Montana Renewables and our host, Tim Gerdeman, WTR’s Vice- Chair & Co-Founder, and Chief Marketing Officer.
• Montana Renewables (MR) is an unrestricted subsidiary (private JV) of Calumet (NASDAQ: CLMT) and the first large-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producer in the US.

• Fleming described MR as Montana’s largest agricultural investment. 

• Evolution’s business strategy is built upon three key pillars, including growing the asset base through accretive producing property acquisitions and low-risk organic development, distributing cash to shareholders through common stock dividends, and maintaining a conservative balance sheet.
• Our FY26 free cash flow estimate implies a dividend coverage ratio of 1.3x.
• On September 30, 2025, Evolution paid its 48th consecutive quarterly dividend in the amount of $0.12 per share. 

• Tender tailwinds are beginning to push NESR toward its goal of reaching an annual revenue threshold of $2 billion.
• The tailwinds include recent awards and a backlog of new business opportunities. For reference, our current FY25 revenue estimate is ~$1.3 billion.
• Since April 2025, NESR has announced contract awards totaling more than $600 million.

• Institutions net bought S$481.3 million in Singapore stocks, with Marco Polo Marine and Frencken Group leading in net buying.
• Marco Polo Marine secured S$100 million in ship chartering contracts and expanded its fleet with new vessels.
• Frencken Group focuses on sustainable expansion with new manufacturing facilities and aims to boost semiconductor competitiveness by 2027.

• Capstone Copper (CSC AU) is looking to raise around US$453m from a secondary placement.
• This is a large deal to digest, representing 63.6 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 6.0% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) recently announced a 10% buyback, reaffirming our bullish stance on the company. With 67% of its market capitalization in cash, it can be easily accomplished. 
• The company can also maintain its 65% payout ratio, which equates to an 8% yield on net profits of $180-200 million USD for FY25. 
• We now look to November 3rd, 2025, as the next catalyst, when the shareholder meeting (GMS) will be held to vote on the buyback, among other decisions.

• With oil prices expected to remain under pressure from a persistent supply glut, investors and dealmakers are turning cautious and prioritising capital efficiency.
• Private equity-led consolidation in midstream signals growing demand for yield resilience amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.
• MLPX ETF inflows in 2025 highlight investor preference for dependable midstream returns over cyclical energy exposure.

• Crude oil futures Thursday were drifting lower with the market looking for direction, although concerns over a supply glut remain the dominant factor.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.01/b (2025 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $66.25/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.31/b against a previous close of $62.55/b.
• Analysts are increasingly moving towards the supply glut scenario, particularly after OPEC+ made its intension clear with a further quota increase for November among the eight members taking part in voluntary cuts.

• • 3Q25 production averaged ~23 mbbl/d (above 2Q25 production of 21.4 mbbl/d), exiting the quarter at 24.8 mbbl/d.
• • Ten wells were drilled at Nong Yao, of which seven are now producing.
• Field output has increased from ~8 mbbl/d to ~11.6 mbbl/d as of end-September.

• Highlights    • Market shift from premium to mid-tier brands   • Profit vs volume strategy hurting premium brands   • Mid-Tier brands expanding globally There is a lot of uncertainty around the ongoing tire demand and supply situation.
• The first thing to note is that while demand is growing slightly, the distribution of sales between premium tire makers and less well-known brands is changing.
• The transfer of market share away from the premium tire makers is rapid and appears to be accelerating.

• PowerBank reported fourth quarter results that were significantly below our expectations, primarily as a result of several projects that slipped from Q4 into FY2026.
• We anticipate that the US solar market will face increased urgency to begin construction by July 2026 due to the accelerated elimination of the solar investment tax credit.
• The company’s Battery Energy Storage System business has built a substantial backlog in a very short time period, which is encouraging, but the transition of the company’s business model from “build and sell” to becoming an independent power producer will require some investor patience.

Key points (machine generated)

• Aker BP, led by CEO Karl Johnny Hersvik since 2014, has achieved a 22% annualized return and focuses on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
• The company was formed through significant mergers, including the 2016 merger of Det norske and BP Norge, and the 2022 acquisition of Lundin Energy for $14 billion.
• Aker BP has a breakeven oil price below $35 per barrel, competitive production costs of approximately $6 per barrel of oil equivalent, and 10.6 years of proven reserves.

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• T&L Co Ltd is a rapidly growing manufacturer of advanced wound care and orthopedic products, capitalizing on its specialized polymer technology. The company has demonstrated exceptional financial performance, with revenue and net income growing at a 3-year CAGR of 34.5% and 33.3%, respectively.
• Despite strong fundamentals, the company’s valuation is under pressure due to significant external risks, primarily the threat of potential U.S. tariffs which could impact profitability. This has led to a recent 29% decline in share price and significant net selling by foreign investors.
• Future growth is contingent on the successful execution of its strategic initiatives, which include aggressive expansion into European markets and diversification into new, high-growth product areas like microneedle and cannabis patches.

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• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Bukit Makmur Mandiri
• UST yields fell 2-4 bps across the curve yesterday, on the back of a strong auction of 3Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 2 bps to 3.56%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 3 bps at 4.12%.
• Equities retreated from record-high levels, weighed down by tech stocks. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4% to 6,715 and the Nasdaq slumped 0.7% to 22,788.

• Crude oil futures were trading at one-week highs Wednesday with Q4 balances under scrutiny, holding on to gains even after US crude stocks were seen higher for a second week.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $66.15/b (2038 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $65.45/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $62.43/b against a previous close of $61.73/b.
• The more upbeat tone prevailed even after US crude stocks were seen 3.72 million barrels higher, buoyed by more imports.

• Q3 copper production came in at 14.6Mbs, below our 16.6Mlbs estimate, due to a 10-day suspension of fresh tailing following the El Teniente accident, which lowered fresh tailing throughput through August.
• Management has decreased annual guidance by 2-5% and maintained its cash cost guidance of $1.93/lb.
• Amerigo remains on track to eliminate its debt by year-end.

• Operational issues with the flare system at the Triton FPSO have resulted in a temporary suspension of production.
• Production is likely to restart shortly at very low rates until the root cause is identified and resolved.
• In the absence of further clarity, we conservatively assume that Triton production will be constrained until the scheduled Bittern pipeline shutdown in November.

Key points (machine generated)

• The Sprott Physical Copper Trust offers a unique investment opportunity with a market cap of around $80 million and average daily liquidity of $95,000.
• The investment is based on a structural bull market in copper and a significant 20% discount to net asset value (NAV).
• This closed-end trust provides direct exposure to physical copper, holding over 10,000 metric tons, and is managed by the reputable Sprott custodian.

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• Arrow Exploration Corp 11.75p £38.59m (AXL.L) The high-growth operator with a portfolio of assets across key Colombian hydrocarbon basins updates on drilling at Mateguafa Oeste-1, on the Tapir Block in the Llanos Basin where Arrow holds a 50% interest.
• The exploration well was spudded on September 21 and reached target depth on September 26.
• The primary targets were the sands of the Ubaque formation which have been prolific producing reservoirs in the nearby Carrizales Norte field. 

• KRX may preemptively adjust KOSPI 200 screening, switching from full market cap to market cap excluding treasury shares for index inclusion.
• With treasury-share cancellation likely this quarter, KRX may act before June ’26. For December KOSPI 200, we should run both full-cap and ex-treasury screens; flows could behave unusually.
• Focusing on Hanssem (009240 KS) and Taekwang (003240 KS); borderline, high treasury shares, potential KOSPI 200 exclusion, making them key flow-sensitive setups for December reshuffle.

• The Gaza conflict introduces a geopolitical risk premium to Brent crude prices, counteracting bearish market fundamentals driven by oversupply and downward demand revisions.
• Immediate price movements, such as this summer following an escalation of conflict, demonstrate the market’s sensitivity to regional tensions and the integration of a risk premium.
• Ongoing indirect negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release represent a potential turning point; a comprehensive resolution could diminish the geopolitical premium, allowing crude prices to adjust lower.

• Corteva plans to spin-off its Seeds business in to a separate publicly liated company. Parent will retain the Crop Protection business
• The separation enables sharper focus and capital allocation between two fundamentally different businesses.
• The seed / trait business is viewed as the higher growth, higher innovation leg (gene editing, trait licensing, intellectual property). These attributes tend to attract premium multiples.

• U.S. tire shipments projected at a record 340.2 million units in 2025  
•  Dynamics shift, with Chinese tire imports falling and SE Asian imports rising  
• Top players pursue expansion, innovation, and portfolio revamp  

• Asia’s base oils price-premiums to gasoil recover amid lower crude oil prices.
• Firmer margins, and signs of crude prices mostly holding in lower range, curb pressure on refiners to adjust base oils output.
• Rise in Asia’s base oils supply coincides with more muted demand in China and southeast Asia and more complicated arbitrage to move heavy grades to India.

• Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) is one of the world’s largest and most efficient producers of downstream oil products and low-carbon transport fuels and among the best-positioned refiners for the changing energy landscape.
• Its diversified low-carbon fuels business offers multiple future pathways for growth and its low-cost oil refining operations lead the North American refining industry on margins.
• Operations include complex oil refining capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day in the US, Canada, and the UK, 1.2 billion gallons per year of renewable diesel (RD) and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF) capacity (joint venture [JV] with Darling Ingredients, Inc. [NYSE: DAR]), and corn ethanol capacity of 1.7 billion gallons per year in the Midwest. 

Key points (machine generated)

• Chemtrade is undervalued at a 5x EBITDA multiple with an 11% yield from dividends and buybacks.
• The company operates in Canada, the US, and Brazil, focusing on specialty chemicals with a stable base business.
• With strong management and improved fundamentals, Chemtrade is projected to reach $15 per share in two years, with potential upside to $20.

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• US base oils demand likely to stay muted.
• Buyers could cover more of any seasonal pick-up in demand at start of Q4 with unused stocks.
• Lack of weather-related supply disruptions in recent months likely leaves those stocks at higher-than-expected levels.

• US Group II base oils prices edge up versus vacuum gasoil (VGO) as crude prices correct lower.
• Firm, rangebound base oils margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain high output.
• High output in Oct 2025 would help to cushion impact of scheduled plant-maintenance.

• Crude oil futures Tuesday were largely consolidating early-week gains after OPEC+ agreed to a production increase at the low end of expectations, although markets continued to face mixed signals.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.68/b (2006 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $65.47/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.96/b against a previous close of $61.69/b.
• The producer group said on Sunday it would raise quotas by 137,000 bpd in November, a move SocGen described as “a sign that markets priced in an expectation of a greater hike and, perhaps more importantly, a growing consensus that spare capacity is quite limited.”

• KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX). It’s popular.
• 87% of the reference period for the December 2025 rebal is complete. We see up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs. Obvious ADD vs Downweight trades have not worked recently.
• Of the “1.5 pairs” I liked last time which worked fundamentally, both are down hard. Trades here are rotated. 

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.
• Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.
• For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.

• Step-up confirmed, lag observed. Legal certainty of a 25bp step-up preceded market recognition by 3 business days, creating a clean pricing-latency window in an Asian SLB.
• Likely cause, vendor latency. Manual data vendor updates for sukuk profit-rate and SLB step-up fields likely delayed screens, as previously referenced.
• Valuation uplift, observed move. At a 5% discount rate, the 25bp step-up was worth about 36bps, the market acted slowly and repriced higher with a 49bp reaction.

• Fermi (FRMI US) went public on 1 October with a free float of ~5% and closed at $28.60 on 3 October, resulting in a company valuation of $17bn.
• The security is expected to be added to US-R 1000 in December 2025.
• Inclusion in other US and Global indices is anticipated in 2026 following lock-up expiry that increases the free float above minimum thresholds.

• After the remarkable bull market in frozen orange juice concentrate futures (OJ) between 2022 and 2024, the market topped out during the early days of 2025.
• Since then, the market corrected 60% from its highs. But for the most part of 2025 the market is actually in a consolidation phase.
• From a chart perspective, the market offers now an interesting setup

• The BHP-China dispute seeks to revert to pre-2010 contractual norms, but we believe BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)  has the advantage, given its market position and strategic leverage.
• Investigations into the accident at Simandou are underway, and the mine remains shut with no progress on construction until the issue is resolved. 
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are bullish on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again. 

• Crude oil futures opened the week higher after OPEC+ over the weekend announced a relatively modest output increase for November, coming in at the low end of expectations.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.47/b (2011 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $64.53/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.68/b against a previous close of $60.88/b.
• The production group agreed to add 137,000 bpd to quotas in November, citing “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” for what is now an eighth consecutive monthly rise.

Key points (machine generated)

• Metals X’s share price increased from AUD 0.22 in July 2021 to AUD 0.54, peaking at AUD 0.75 in April 2022 due to rising tin prices.
• As one of only two listed tin miners in a Western jurisdiction, Metals X presents a unique investment opportunity despite facing challenges like a complex corporate structure and reliance on a single mine.
• Recent share price changes and corporate actions suggest a potential for re-rating, making Metals X an attractive investment despite existing risks.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• RPM International’s fiscal 2026 first quarter results exhibit notable strengths and some challenges.
• On the positive side, the company achieved record quarterly sales across all segments, with each segment generating growth of 6% or more despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
• This performance marked the 14th time in 15 quarters that RPM has recorded a record adjusted EBIT, showcasing the effective execution of its growth strategy.

• Coro Energy 0.43p £3.91m (CORO.L)* The South East Asian renewable energy developer announces its unaudited interim results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2025.
• The Company added a further 2.2MW of commercial and industrial (C&I) rooftop solar capacity with Mobile World Group (MWG) bringing the Group’s total aggregate operational capacity in Vietnam to 6.4MW with estimated run-rate annual cash flows of approximately US$720,000.
• The Company is in advanced negotiations with an industrial customer for a new 10MW project across several factory locations in Vietnam.