Category

Financials

Daily Brief Financials: WealthNavi, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bajaj Finance Ltd, GDS Holdings (ADR) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • WealthNavi (7342 JP): MUFG (8306 JP)’s Opportunistic Tender Offer
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Ultra Attractive
  • Bajaj Finance (BAF): Mixed Q2 But Growth Remains Robust
  • MUFG Launches a TOB to Take Out Robo-Advisor WealthNavi (7342) – The 81.4% Premium Is Light
  • GDS: The Leading Data Center Provider in China, Riding the AI Mega Trend – BUY


WealthNavi (7342 JP): MUFG (8306 JP)’s Opportunistic Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • In response to a Nikkei article, WealthNavi (7342 JP) disclosed Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)’s tender offer at JPY1,950 per share, an 84.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The high premium reflects WealthNavi’s steep 46% YTD share price decline, i.e., the timing is opportunistic. The offer is below the Board’s requested price.
  • While the irrevocable has a competing offer clause, a competing proposal is unlikely due to MUFG’s stake. However, a bump is possible if activist(s) take around a 15% stake. 

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Ultra Attractive

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia should have a stronger finish to the year with stable credit costs and continuing growth in micro recoveries driving fee income growth, with NIMs remaining stable 
  • Loan growth will increase in 4Q2024 but may see a slowdown in 2025 but the bank should see stable credit costs and a rebound in earnings with lower provisions. 
  • Foreign ownership and vaulations are back to 2015 lows apart from the pandemic at 2.1x PBV is also a 10-year ex-pandemic low of 1.8x, and trades on 9.6x PER. 

Bajaj Finance (BAF): Mixed Q2 But Growth Remains Robust

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Q2FY25 performance was mixed with good growth in AUM and volumes, however, loan losses were elevated. AUM growth came in at 29% YoY and 5.5%+ QoQ in Q2.
  • Asset quality deteriorated led by retail and SME segments. GNPA worsened to 1.06% in Q2FY25 vs 0.86% QoQ. Credit cost has been around 2.1% vs 1.75%-1.85% guided.
  • BAF successfully listed its housing finance subsidiary, BHFL, on Sep 16 2024. Its shareholding in BHFL is down to 88.75% from 100%.

MUFG Launches a TOB to Take Out Robo-Advisor WealthNavi (7342) – The 81.4% Premium Is Light

By Travis Lundy

  • MUFG (8306) bought 15.5% of WealthNavi (7342 JP) in February at ¥1,718/share – zero premium. The shares fell. Now they are bidding for the rest 13.5% higher.
  • WealthNavi forecasts fantastic growth. Dec29 OP is specifically estimated at ¥13.822bn. Everyone agrees there are synergies, but they’re not “valued” because they “cannot be specifically estimated at this moment.” 
  • I believe investors should start demanding Synergy CVRs of acquirors when synergies are not included in the fair value calculations. 

GDS: The Leading Data Center Provider in China, Riding the AI Mega Trend – BUY

By Jacob Cheng

  • GDS is the leader in China’s data center market.  GDS is well positioned to capture growing demand from generative AI cloud growth
  • GDS consists of GDSH (China) and GDSI (international), both businesses are delivering growth and operational excellence
  • GDS US share price has rallied 100% YTD, we believe there is further room to grow due to capital flows and attractive valuation

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Daily Brief Financials: WealthNavi, Dollar Index, Indusind Bank, USD Coin, Shui On Land, Foxtons, Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/F, Princess Private Equity Holdin, Ethereum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342)
  • Global FX Volatility Outlook 2025
  • Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance – A Rocky Road Head
  • Crypto Moves #54 – While Everyone Looks at Donald Trump, No One Considers the EU’s MiCA
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Foxtons Group – Deals’ benefits matched by tax rise
  • Tetragon Financial Group – Termination of coverage
  • Partners Group Private Equity – Seeing good demand for several of its assets
  • Exploring Base’s Role in the Growing Onchain Economy


Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342)

By Travis Lundy

  • Early this morning, a Nikkei article said Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) would buy out the remaining 85% of WealthNavi (7342 JP). Expected to be completed by March.
  • MUFJ Bank and WealthNavi signed a Business Alliance in February. WealthNavi issued 9.11mm new shares to MUFJ at ¥1,718/share. That was a discount to market and shares are down ~40%.
  • WealthNavi’s AUM is growing (¥1.3trln at end-Oct) and the goal is to launch a money advisory platform by FY2026. Now they need to decide on the premium.

Global FX Volatility Outlook 2025

By At Any Rate

  • DXY strength through 1Q25 predicted with positive volatility
  • Dollar correlations expected to remain firm, with potential pockets of soft cross correlations
  • Systematic FX adoptions models highlight opportunities in FX carry via options, short volume strategy, volume reversal model, and volcurve model for 2025

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance – A Rocky Road Head

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. 
  • Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.
  • Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.

Crypto Moves #54 – While Everyone Looks at Donald Trump, No One Considers the EU’s MiCA

By Mads Eberhardt

  • President-elect Donald Trump has become a prominent figure with the cryptocurrency market, primarily because of his ambitious vision to transform the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.” This outlook is undoubtedly positive, as the United States holds the title of the largest capital market globally and wields significant influence on the international stage.
  • However, many in the crypto market appear to overlook another highly encouraging regulatory development.
  • This involves the European Union’s comprehensive Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework, which will be fully implemented across EU member states on December 30th.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Shui On Land
  • The US market was closed for Thanksgiving yesterday.
  • The Biden administration is weighing additional curbs on the sale of semiconductor and AI memory chips to China, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Foxtons Group – Deals’ benefits matched by tax rise

By Edison Investment Research

Foxtons Group’s recent acquisition of estate agents in two London commuter towns highlights the outer-London potential for low-risk, value-added expansion. Furthermore, it adds to the developing success of the company’s strategic vision and implies that medium-term targets are now coming into focus. We have updated our forecasts for the deals, but additional profit from the acquisitions is broadly matched by the increase in employer’s National Insurance costs, hence we retain our valuation of 134p/share and believe that falling interest rates and property market stability are contributing to a buoyant sales market.


Tetragon Financial Group – Termination of coverage

By Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Tetragon Financial Group (TFG). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.


Partners Group Private Equity – Seeing good demand for several of its assets

By Edison Investment Research

Partners Group Private Equity’s (PGPE’s) recent portfolio realisation efforts (supported by the gradual pick-up in M&A activity and an opening IPO window) included, most notably, the sale of SRS Distribution earlier this year (see our September 2024 note for details) and more recently Techem (3.8% of end-Q324 NAV, sold to a trade buyer in October 2024), as well as the successful IPO pricing of Galderma in March and KinderCare in October. The positive valuation effects from these activities (21% weighted average uplift to latest published NAV) were coupled with a 5.1pp contribution to portfolio performance in 9M24 from earnings growth (average 11% increase in last 12-month EBITDA across top 20 holdings) and a slight 1.2pp tailwind from peer multiples. This was partly offset by an increase in portfolio net debt amid several debt package refinancings at a lower spread to strengthen capital structures and in turn support growth. Moreover, the Q324 return was affected by a weakening US dollar, which makes up c 40% of the portfolio’s exposure by currency (although these FX headwinds have more than reversed so far in Q424). As a result, the company posted a moderate 3.1% NAV total return (TR) in 9M24.


Exploring Base’s Role in the Growing Onchain Economy

By Delphi Digital

  • The onchain economy has experienced unprecedented growth in 2024, with a 70% increase in total value locked (TVL) across major networks, surpassing $70 billion.
  • Key drivers include the adoption of stablecoins, Layer 2 solutions, gaming, collectibles, and institutional interest.
  • Base, an Ethereum Layer 2 incubated by Coinbase, stands out with 1,600% growth in daily transactions and a 470% rise in TVL since January.

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Daily Brief Financials: SBI Sumishin Net Bank , Avjennings Ltd, CNY, KB Financial, Resona Holdings, Bank Central Asia, Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A, Travelers Cos, Wr Berkley Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • NTT (9432 JP) And SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163 JP)? Maybe. Maybe Not. Seven Bank A Better Idea
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Indicative Offer at A$0.67 (103% Premium)
  • China Watch: Forget About the BRICS Currency – China Wants to Impact the USD from Within
  • KB Financial – NPLs from KRW2.1tr to KRW3.1tr YoY Vs +6% Loans. Substandard Loans: Big Issue
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Done Deal
  • Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Tempering 2025 Expectations
  • Best of: Berkshire after Warren Buffett
  • Travelers Companies: Will Its Strategic Investments & Mergers Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor? – Major Drivers
  • W.R. Berkley Corporation: It’s Efforts Towards Investment Strategy & Yield Optimization & Other Major Drivers


NTT (9432 JP) And SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163 JP)? Maybe. Maybe Not. Seven Bank A Better Idea

By Travis Lundy

  • An article in Japanese weekly magazine Bunshun this morning sent shares inSBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) limit up +17% with a headline that NTT Docomo was interested to buy.
  • Without access to the article, I can’t go deep, but the base concept is that NTT Docomo is “worried” about KDDI (which has a bank, as does Softbank Corp)
  • It is not clear how serious it is, SBI Sumishin is super-expensive, and buying a bank isn’t the same as buying a company. Hmmm…

AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Indicative Offer at A$0.67 (103% Premium)

By Arun George

  • Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from AVID at A$0.67 per share, a 103.0% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The proposal is subject to due diligence (till 31 January 2025), entry into a scheme implementation deed, and shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO).
  • The largest shareholder supports the offer, which represents a 20-year high. AVID has completed initial due diligence, lending confidence that a binding proposal will materialise.

China Watch: Forget About the BRICS Currency – China Wants to Impact the USD from Within

By Andreas Steno

  • Last week, we missed an intriguing story that several clients have asked us to explore.
  • China issued $2 billion worth of USD-denominated bonds, which might not seem groundbreaking at first glance—it’s not uncommon for China to issue bonds in dollars.
  • However, two aspects of this issuance stand out:The Venue: These bonds weren’t issued in the typical financial hubs like New York or Shanghai but in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia—a first of its kind.

KB Financial – NPLs from KRW2.1tr to KRW3.1tr YoY Vs +6% Loans. Substandard Loans: Big Issue

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Headline NPL figures at KB Financial (105560 KS) are already of major concern rising by 49% in the past year to 3Q24
  • Granular loan classification data is of even greater concern, where substandard loans are up from KRW1,153bn to KRW1,715bn over the same period
  • This more benign bucket of NPLs well overshadows loss loans, can migration can mean a substantial rise in credit costs

AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Done Deal

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 28th November, AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU), a widely recognised home builder in Australia/New Zealand, entered into a deed granting the AVID consortium exclusive confirmatory due diligence.
  • AVID, comprising Proprium Capital Partners and AVID Property Group, have pitched an NBIO (by way of a Scheme) of A$0.67/share, in cash, a punchy 103% premium to last close. 
  • Apart from entering a SIA after DD (expected end-Jan completion), the Offer requires FIRB and OIO to sign off. AVJ’s board, controlled by Singapore’s SC Global (54.5% shareholder) is supportive.

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Shizuoka (5831 JP) Upgraded to Buy, Chiba (8331 JP) To Neutral from Buy

By Victor Galliano

  • Market expectations that the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting will raise benchmark interest rates in December are reflected in the rising JGB yields, and in the domestic lending rate trends
  • We reiterate our core recommendations of Resona and Mizuho for their leverage to higher interest rates, their low LDRs and their high share of strategic holdings relative to market capitalisation
  • We reduce Chiba to neutral from buy, keep our buy on Concordia; we add Shizuoka for its gearing to higher interest rates and very high share of strategic shareholdings

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Tempering 2025 Expectations

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A company visit with Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) in Jakarta revealed a more cautious view on loan growth looking into 2025, with expectations for high-single-digit YoY growth.
  • There is increasing caution amongst customers around the soft economy and the risk of more aggressive tax collection in 2025, reflected in strong growth in holdings of government bonds.
  • A company visit with Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) in Jakarta revealed a more cautious view on loan growth looking into 2025, with expectations for high-single-digit YoY growth.

Best of: Berkshire after Warren Buffett

By Behind the Money

  • Warren Buffett’s house in Omaha attracts fans from around the world, reflecting his legendary status as an investor
  • Succession planning at Berkshire Hathaway raises questions about the future leadership and challenges facing the company after Buffett’s tenure.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Travelers Companies: Will Its Strategic Investments & Mergers Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Travelers Companies, Inc. reported strong financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, demonstrating a balanced strategy of growth, profitability, and prudent risk management, though not without its challenges.
  • Key positives from the earnings call include a significant rise in core income, reaching over $1.2 billion or $5.24 per diluted share, which represents stellar results amidst complex market conditions.
  • This increase was driven by a combination of factors such as a 73% surge in underlying underwriting income compared to the prior year, derived notably from net earned premiums at a record $10.7 billion, marking a 10% increase, and a marked improvement in the underlying combined ratio to 85.6%, down by 5 points year-over-year.

W.R. Berkley Corporation: It’s Efforts Towards Investment Strategy & Yield Optimization & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • W.
  • R.
  • Berkley Corporation demonstrated solid financial performance in its third quarter of 2024, despite sector-wide challenges, notably from natural catastrophes.

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Daily Brief Financials: Hulic Co Ltd, Samsung KODEX 200 ETF, S&P 500 INDEX, KGI Financial Holding, Ally Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HULIC (3003 JP) – Crossholders Show Up with a BIG (Relative) Secondary Offering
  • Digging into the Year-End Divvy Arbitrage Game in Korea’s Market
  • Hulic (3033 JP): A US$800 Million Secondary Offering
  • Hulic Co Placement – US$780m Cross-Shareholding Unwind Is a Large One for the Stock to Digest
  • Hulic Co (3003 JP) Placement: One Big Price Drop Could Lead to Another
  • EQD | Flash: S&P500 – State Of The Odds DAILY (Overbought!)
  • kopi-C with APAC Realty’s CEO: ‘The property industry still needs agents’
  • Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) – Wednesday, Aug 28, 2024


HULIC (3003 JP) – Crossholders Show Up with a BIG (Relative) Secondary Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) announced a large secondary offering where about a quarter of the crossholdings will sell down holdings. Some exit entirely. Some partially. 
  • After this selldown, there is a fair bit more to go later, but more of that will be corporate. It’s a BIG offering: 55d of ADV and 55% of MRWF. 
  • It is “only” about $800mm and retail gets 80% of it. The high div yield will be a selling point but there is a lot of debt.

Digging into the Year-End Divvy Arbitrage Game in Korea’s Market

By Sanghyun Park

  • For March KOSPI 200 futures, expect a 0.95% to 1% yield for spot-futures arbitrage, with contango depending on year-end ex-div trends and passive inflows.
  • Passive inflows into the value-up index in January and spillover effects into K200 futures, potentially fueling year-end contango due to overlap with KOSPI 200.
  • Prop trader dynamics are cooling off: Tax-driven buying in December, selling in January likely to ease, reducing the past backwardation. Without it, expect higher volatility in K200 futures.

Hulic (3033 JP): A US$800 Million Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.4 million shares (98.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$800 million (US$920 million including overallotment).
  • Unlike the 2021 offer, this is a pure secondary offering. It is smaller in terms of outstanding shares and 1-year ADV. The shares are hovering around all-time highs.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 12 December (likely 10 December).

Hulic Co Placement – US$780m Cross-Shareholding Unwind Is a Large One for the Stock to Digest

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of domestic financial institutions are looking to raise US$775m from trimming their stakes in Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP).
  • The deal will be a large one to digest at 48 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 11% of its shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Hulic Co (3003 JP) Placement: One Big Price Drop Could Lead to Another

By Brian Freitas

  • Overnight, Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) announced a placement of 85.37m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 12.8m shares.
  • There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the number of shares offered is a very large percentage of real float of the stock.
  • A price drop of 20% or more puts Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) at risk of deletion from a global index and could lead to a further price drop.

EQD | Flash: S&P500 – State Of The Odds DAILY (Overbought!)

By Nico Rosti

  • Quick trading idea:  S&P 500 INDEX DAILY is overbought. Has been closing up for 7 days in a row, soon there will be a DAILY reversal (lasting => 1 day).
  • The ideal area to go short is the price area above yesterday’s Close (6021.63).
  • Alternatively go SHORT today at the Close. The interactive chart for the SPX DAILY can be freely accessed here.

kopi-C with APAC Realty’s CEO: ‘The property industry still needs agents’

By Geoff Howie

  • With 42 years under its belt, ERA Asia Pacific, a wholly owned subsidiary by APAC Realty, embraces technology to empower agents in delivering elevated services with a personal touch.
  • In recent years, APAC Realty – which operates a real estate brokerage in Singapore under the ERA brand – has embraced technology, viewing digital tools not as threats but assets to support its agents and enhance their work.
  • Together, agents from ERA Asia Pacific account for 57.4% of ERA’s global network of real estate agents.

Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) – Wednesday, Aug 28, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • SYF, DFS, and ALLY are spinoffs from larger companies in consumer finance and create shareholder value through focused strategies and good management culture.
  • ALLY is particularly interesting due to rate-cycle dynamics and a shift from investing in competitive strength to harvesting from past investments.
  • The onboarding of a new CEO at ALLY suggests potential developments in the company’s strategy, with a focus on management culture, competitive strength investment, and the impact of the current rate cycle on earnings power.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: Hyundai Motor Securities, DigiCo REIT, Bitcoin, Nikkei 225, Old Republic Intl, Hanover Insurance Group, Lincoln National, Cna Financial, Chubb , China Vanke and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution
  • DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications
  • Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 : State Of The Odds (WEEKLY)
  • Old Republic International Corporation: Will Its Expansion of Specialty Underwriting Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers
  • The Hanover Insurance Group: How Is The Management Tackling The Financial Strain from Expense Management
  • Lincoln National Corporation: Dealing With Strategic Capital Deployment & 4 Other Critical Challenges! – Major Drivers
  • CNA Financial Corporation: An Analysis Into Its Growth in Gross Written Premiums & Profitable Segments & Other Major Drivers
  • Chubb Limited: Geographic Diversification As A Vital Tool For Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia – November 26, 2024


Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution

By Douglas Kim

  • Hyundai Motors Securities announced a rights offering worth nearly 200 billion won involving a 49% shares dilution. 
  • The amount of shares dilution is excessive which is likely to result in a share price weakness in Hyundai Motor Securities in the coming weeks.
  • The expected rights offering price for now is 6,640 won per share which is 24.5% discount to the closing price on 26 November.

DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) is looking to raise nearly A$2bn in its IPO by selling 399.1m shares at A$5/share. Stock is expected to list on the ASX on 12 December.
  • HMC Capital (HMC AU) will own 18.2% of DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) after the IPO while IPO investors will own 72.5% of the company.
  • Subject to DigiCo REIT being an eligible stapled security, we expect the stock to be included in global and local indices between March and June mopping up 11.7% of float.

Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last Thursday, I shared my conviction in our Telegram crypto chat:
  • My two cents: We touch $100,000 (or very close) but we do not comfortably get on the other side.
  • This makes all the leverage and open interest (and retail euphoria) turn against us.
  • After witnessing the Bitcoin price face repeated rejections since then, I am even more confident in this view.

EQD | Nikkei 225 : State Of The Odds (WEEKLY)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225‘s trend is uncertain at the moment: the new N225 WEEKLY QUANTCHART presented here (freely accessible 24/7 clicking here) shows us the current MRM models’ support and resistance.
  • In the last few months the index stalled, currently it is stuck in a range roughly between 37650 and 40250, and it has closed down for 2 consecutive weeks (CC=-2).
  • At the moment we expect the index to fall maybe another week (closing this week down) and then a LONG reversal the following week.

Old Republic International Corporation: Will Its Expansion of Specialty Underwriting Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Old Republic International Corporation reported its third-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing mixed results influenced by a range of market factors.
  • The company’s consolidated pretax operating income declined to $229 million, down from $251 million in the prior year.
  • Similarly, the consolidated combined ratio rose to 95% from last year’s 92%, indicating a deterioration in underwriting performance.

The Hanover Insurance Group: How Is The Management Tackling The Financial Strain from Expense Management

By Baptista Research

  • The Hanover Insurance Group’s recent financial results for the third quarter show a complex but generally positive picture of the company’s performance.
  • The firm reported an operating income of $3.05 per diluted share, with an operating return on equity of 14.4%.
  • This performance reflects improvements driven by strategic initiatives such as enhanced pricing, adjustments in insurance value, and targeted underwriting actions.

Lincoln National Corporation: Dealing With Strategic Capital Deployment & 4 Other Critical Challenges! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lincoln National Corporation delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2024, showcasing its highest quarterly adjusted operating income in over two years.
  • This reflects positive momentum across all its business lines, driven by strategic initiatives focused on capital foundation, operating model optimization, and profitable growth.
  • The company has made considerable progress in aligning its operations with these strategic goals, although it acknowledges that the transformations required are part of a multiyear journey.

CNA Financial Corporation: An Analysis Into Its Growth in Gross Written Premiums & Profitable Segments & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CNA Financial Corporation reported strong financial performance in the third quarter, reflecting robust growth in core income and investment results, as well as strong underwriting performance.
  • The core income for the quarter was $293 million, driven by a $73 million increase in net investment income to $626 million pre-tax.
  • This surge in investment income was propelled by the positive performance of CNA’s alternatives portfolio and the growth of its fixed-income investments, which benefitted from higher book yields and a larger asset base.

Chubb Limited: Geographic Diversification As A Vital Tool For Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Chubb Limited delivered a robust third quarter of 2024, posting significant growth in its Property and Casualty (P&C) underwriting, investment income, and life insurance segments.
  • Core operating income increased by 14.3% year-over-year to $2.3 billion, contributing to a 16.9% rise in net income.
  • The global P&C premium revenue grew by 7.6%, translating to an 8.5% increase in constant currency, reflecting strong performance across its diversified international markets and business segments.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia – November 26, 2024

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Treasuries surged yesterday, with yields falling 10-13 bps across the curve after a strong auction of 2Y notes and in the wake of US President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary.
  • Mr Bessent is expected to implement Mr Trump’s tax cuts, while reducing the budget deficit and boosting GDP growth through deregulation and other pro-growth policies.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST fell 10 bps to 4.27%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 13 bps to 4.28%. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Highwealth Construction, Banco BPM SpA, NIFTY Index, Migalo Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Shift in Divs Leads to Last Minute Changes
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Final Expectations; US$1.68bn One-Way; +17% Gain from Last Trade
  • Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Finally Respond to Mkt. Forces as Holidays Drop off the Calendar
  • EQD | NIFTY 50 (NIFTY INDEX) – Capped Risk Reversal and Other Option Opportunities
  • Migalo Holdings (5535 Jp) – Upward Earnings Revision Was Within Expectations


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Shift in Divs Leads to Last Minute Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 25 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.3% and a one-way trade of TWD 60.6bn (US$1.86bn).
  • On average, the forecast adds have started to outperform the forecast deletes. Positioning should continue in stocks that have large flow/impact or have recently joined the list of forecast adds/deletes.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Final Expectations; US$1.68bn One-Way; +17% Gain from Last Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • Today is the base date for the final ranks and we see five ADDs and four DELs.
  • We estimate one-way flow to be around US$1.68bn with multiple names having 5x ADV or more to trade.

Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) launches an all-share takeover bid for 100% of Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM). The exchange equation is 0.175 UCG IM x 1 BAMI IM.
  • The implied value of Banco BPM shares is €6.6658/share, just a 0.3% premium. The transaction offers strong financial appeal, with Banco BPM trading at 0.72x P/BVPS and 11.52% dividend yield.
  • The gross spread of +7.4% suggests UniCredit may need to enhance the offer—adjusting the exchange ratio and/or adding cash—unless its share price approaches the IBES median target.

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Finally Respond to Mkt. Forces as Holidays Drop off the Calendar

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs trade higher in spite of a late-week recovery in equities. Negative correlation between Index & option premiums reasserted as multiple holidays fall off the calendar.    
  • Vol-Regime Switching Model firmly lodged in “High & Down” state. Allocation to Iron Condors/ Iron Butterflies recommended.   
  • Vol surface characteristics also reflecting increased risk premia – Skew extends away from overly compressed levels. Vol term structure swings from Contango to Backwardation.

EQD | NIFTY 50 (NIFTY INDEX) – Capped Risk Reversal and Other Option Opportunities

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) finished last week in positive territory. A longer rally could ensue.
  • This Insight provides option strategies based on the resistance and support levels identified in the quantitative Insight EQD | NIFTY 50: State Of The Odds.
  • Volatility skew and option liquidity inform three strategies, which include a Capped Risk Reversal, a Risk Reversal, and a Call Spread.

Migalo Holdings (5535 Jp) – Upward Earnings Revision Was Within Expectations

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On November 7, 2024, Migalo Holdings Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q2 FY2025/3 earnings results.
  • In H1, sales increased 23.3% YoY to JPY 30,001 mn, and operating profit fell 15.6% YoY to JPY 1,935 mn.
  • Q1 saw a decline in sales and profit due to the impact from last year’s concentration of new property deliveries.

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Daily Brief Financials: PICC Property & Casualty H, KE Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)
  • [KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: C4Q24 Rebound but What’s Next?


HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)

By Brian Freitas


[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: C4Q24 Rebound but What’s Next?

By Eric Wen

  • Beike (BEKE) reported C3Q24 revenue in-line with our estimate and consensus but non-GAAP operating profit 26%/25% below, mainly due to higher commission rebate and agent salaries;
  • Strong rebound in home transaction volumes in October and November, led to our C4Q24 revenue 16% above consensus. But the rebound needs more stimulus to sustain;
  • We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP to US$25 to reflect the near term rebound and steady market share gains.

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Daily Brief Financials: Arthur J Gallagher & Co, Bitcoin, NIFTY Index, Atour Lifestyle Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: These Are The 4 Biggest Challenges Responsible For Our Lack Of Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Crypto Moves #53 – Are Markets Stupid? The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Strikes Again
  • EQD | NIFTY 50: State Of The Odds
  • [Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact


Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: These Are The 4 Biggest Challenges Responsible For Our Lack Of Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Arthur J.
  • Gallagher & Company reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing a robust performance across its core segments, Brokerage and Risk Management.
  • The company’s revenue growth was impressive at 13%, with organic growth marking 6%.

Crypto Moves #53 – Are Markets Stupid? The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Strikes Again

By Mads Eberhardt

  • In the second edition of Crypto Moves, published almost exactly a year ago, I shared this conviction:“Perhaps the only thing you want to know is: Do we expect the Bitcoin halving to cause a new run?”“The short answer is yes.
  • In this edition of Crypto Moves, we assess Bitcoin’s current position in its historical 4-year cycle. The 4-year cycle is fundamentally tied to Bitcoin’s halvings, which occurs roughly every four years and halves the mining block reward.
  • This process has now taken place four times, reducing the reward from 50 bitcoins per block to just 3.125 bitcoins per block.

EQD | NIFTY 50: State Of The Odds

By Nico Rosti

  • After a period of prolonged sell-off, the NIFTY Index last week found support around the 23263 level and bounced.
  • Below we introduce a new “quantitative chart” tool called “QUANTCHARTS“: it displays in a compact format all the information you need to evaluate the probability of trend reversal.
  • As you will see the NIFTY Index closed just below the 25% (Q1) probability target, so it has room to rise further in the coming weeks, the CC is supportive.

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

By Eric Wen

  • Atour (ATAT) reported C3Q24 revenue 2.3% lower than our estimate but 4.8% higher than consensus. The net income beat our estimate/consensus by 6.6%/9.5%, thanks to disciplined cost controls.
  • Although RevPAR weakened in C3Q24 as expected, turnaround is coming already in C4Q24. We also expect moderate RevPAR growth in 2025.
  • We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain a TOP BUY on Atour.

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Daily Brief Financials: NU Holdings, China Vanke and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

By Victor Galliano

  • We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24
  • Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward
  • Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Gajah Tunggal, ReNew Energy, Adani Green Energy, Bharti Airtel, UPL Limited
  • Treasuries fell yesterday, with yields up 1-3 bps across the curve following a soft auction of 20Y notes.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST rose 3 bps to 4.32%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.41%.

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Daily Brief Financials: Apollo Global Management , Pantheon Infrastructure PLC, Japan Post Holdings, Trinity Bank NA, Block , Custodian REIT, Clip Money and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs
  • Pantheon Infrastructure Plc (PINT.L) – Wednesday, Aug 21, 2024
  • Japan Post Holdings – Guidance Continues to Underwhelm
  • The Holy Trinity of Banking
  • Block Inc.: Will Its Integration of Bitcoin Strategy Be A Breakthrough Move? – Major Drivers
  • Hardman & Co Investor Forum Research on Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI): Good momentum
  • Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in late-2024/early-2025.

Pantheon Infrastructure Plc (PINT.L) – Wednesday, Aug 21, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Pantheon Infrastructure PLC (PINT) is a closed-ended investment company offering investors access to a diverse portfolio of global infrastructure assets
  • Focus on providing progressive dividend and potential for NAV organic total return of 8-10%
  • Aiming to reduce discount to NAV, capitalize on potential improvement in NAV valuation, and offer attractive IRR with potential for best-case scenario of 30% by end of FY2026

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Japan Post Holdings – Guidance Continues to Underwhelm

By Rikki Malik

  • H1 Results improved but did not raise guidance for the FY
  • Insurance subsidiary surprised with a buyback of shares after strong results
  • Bank subsidiary profits improved as expected as interest rates increase

The Holy Trinity of Banking

By The Mikro Kap

  • This write-up is not something you would normally (or ever) expect from me.
  • It’s about a bank. To be more specific, it is about a one-branch community bank out of Fort Worth, Texas.
  • Despite sounding unimpressive at first, probably enticing you to stop reading the article immediately, this bank has managed to outperform both the SPY and every other bank ETF that you can think of since going public in late 2003.

Block Inc.: Will Its Integration of Bitcoin Strategy Be A Breakthrough Move? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Block, the parent company of brands like Square and Cash App, has reported its third-quarter financial results for 2024, revealing a noteworthy performance with both achievements and challenges.
  • This analysis provides a balanced examination of the outcomes and outlook for the company, incorporating insights from their latest earnings call.
  • Block’s third-quarter results exhibited robust growth, with a significant increase in gross profit, reaching $2.25 billion, up 19% compared to the previous year.

Hardman & Co Investor Forum Research on Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI): Good momentum

By Hardman & Co

  • The structure and investment remit of the real estate investment trust (REIT) have been proven to be resilient and position it strongly for the short- and medium-term future.
  • The investment return emphasis is on income, which is generated from a diverse portfolio with modest capital gearing.
  • Because Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) is designed to focus on smaller, individual property lot sizes, it acquires at higher asset yields than the market in general.

Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa, Canada, and operating in Canada and the US.
  • It is helping physical stores and businesses quickly, safely, and less expensively deposit cash into their bank accounts, as well as replenishing notes and coins for store operations.
  • The company uses its proprietary software platform to facilitate cash management, and its network is made up of a network of DropBoxes and NCR ATMs located in retail outlets.

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