Macro

• Surprisingly strong signals beyond the ECB’s hawkish hold now carry a clear presumption of a 25bp September hike, driven by resurgent energy costs and upside inflation risks.
• Press‑conference remarks revealed some Governors are already on the cusp of voting for a hike, with a higher burden of proof to back down after the MOU proved flimsy.
• A second and final hike in September is now our base case. Further hikes would need a more severe energy shock and clearer second‑round effects in prices and wages.

• Crude futures hit fresh multi-week highs as conflict escalation fears continued to grow on Wednesday, further threatening a prolonged delay in crude supplies from the Middle East.
• Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent futures were up 3.6% at $94.30/b (2033 BST), earlier posting a five-week high of $95.47/b, while Sep26 NYMEX  WTI was at $87.06/b , up 3.2% versus Tuesday’s settle.
• Overnight the US continued its relentless bombing campaign hitting targets across southern and western Iran, while Tehran again attacked US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.

• Officially, China’s growth slowed to 4.3% in 2Q26 as consumption, investment and secondary-sector activity weakened, leaving exports and modern services as key offsets. 
• Alternative estimates suggest underlying growth was closer to 3.5%, reflecting stark inconsistencies between national accounts and fixed-asset investment.
• Beijing’s policy response will likely remain incremental, prioritising the 4.5% lower bound of its annual target rather than engineering a stronger growth rebound.

• Chile’s copper supply faces a double blow from severe weather and potential sulphuric acid shortages, raising the risk of tighter mine output and global supply.
• Shrinking inventories and soaring Yangshan premiums highlight China’s strong appetite for refined copper, providing continued support for copper prices.
• A strong earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance underscore Teck’s momentum, but mine execution and merger approvals will shape the next phase of growth.

• The Hong Kong market has bounced strongly in July as northern Asian markets decline amid the global AI/semiconductor sell-off.
• The materials, energy, and healthcare sectors are the top performers in July.  Value, dividend yield, and large-cap factors have been top investment factors in the HK market this year.
• Precision Tsugami (China) (1651 HK) released its FY26 results, prompting price target and rating upgrades from analysts benefiting from downstream sectors such as NEVs, advanced equipment, and AI.

• Korea released the second quarter GDP earlier this week, it came in at 3.7% versus the 3.5% expected, that was an acceleration and when we plug it into our prediction model, it took the full year growth rate for Korea from 3% to 3.4%.
• Malaysia also released its second quarter GDP but only the headline figure and no component details. Having said that, the headline number looked quite good, it came in at 5.8% YoY, that was an acceleration from 5.4 in the first quarter and significantly better than the 5.2 analysts were expecting.
• Bank Indonesia held interest rates at 5.75% instead of raising to the 6% analysts had forecast. The pause was probably caused by relief of pressure on the rupiah.

• China’s exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.
• Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China’s car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). 
• Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul’25-Jun’26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China’s export companies are BUYs.

• The U.S. and Iran are now targeting civilian infrastructure and energy assets; thus we can safely say that “all-out war” has returned, now compounded by the Houthi-Saudi confrontation.     
• There is little sign that oil prices have peaked, but barring a Houthi attack on Abqaiq, we still do not envision $100.00 per barrel, basis prompt NYMEX crude oil.            
• The latest EIA data revealed continued low exports influencing the stock build, but we would look for exports to recover in the weeks ahead, reflecting the “closure” of the Strait.       

• In Depth: Inside the Unlikely Alliance That Cracked Simandou Simandou was regarded as one of the most formidable mining puzzles on Earth.
• Buried deep under the forested mountains in southeastern Guinea, it holds the world’s largest and highest-grade untapped reserves of open-pit hematite, the primary source of iron.
• In Depth: Ex-Employee Dispute Looms Over Xiaohongshu’s IPO Prospects The public airing of a legal dispute between Xiaohongshu and a former employee over his dismissal and stock options has cast a shadow over any future Hong Kong listing by the Chinese social platform creator.

• A third downside inflation surprise to the consensus matched us but split hairs from 2.646%. It will also be a temporary trough as energy optimism was invalidated.
• Netting energy utility price falls, petrol price rises, and food price stability aligns with our pre-war forecast but is ~0.3pp above the consensus amid underlying strength.
• Cost passthrough to food, airfares, etc will occur later, while resurgent energy prices are raising the postponed peak in 2027. We still expect a BoE rate hike in September.

• Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, but the latest rally reflects higher uncertainty rather than expectations of a prolonged supply shock.
• Major institutions view USD 100/b as a conditional scenario, requiring sustained disruptions to physical oil flows rather than continued geopolitical escalation.
• Options positioning, implied volatility and managed money exposure suggest traders are hedging against upside risk, not yet positioning for a structural bull market.

• In Depth: China Rethinks the Tax Rebates That Drove Its Export Machine Starting Jan.1, Chinese battery manufacturers will lose a financial buffer they have relied on for years: value-added tax (VAT) rebates on their exports.
• Following an eight-month transition, batteries will join steel, aluminum, copper, and solar panels on a growing list of products entirely stripped of these refunds.
• In Depth: Chinese Smartphone-Makers Bet on AI Agents

• Active Emerging Market funds almost matched the benchmark in H1 2026, with 51.7% of managers outperforming despite one of the most concentrated market rallies in recent years.
• Technology contributed more than the entire first-half return, with South Korean and Taiwanese AI leaders driving gains while weakness elsewhere offset part of the advance.
• Unlike their Global peers, active EM managers added value through Technology stock selection, demonstrating that skilled active management continues to compete effectively in Emerging Markets.

• The most useful way to think about the current war in eastern Europe is not to frame it as a confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, but between the EU and Russia.

• And since Germany is the leading country in the EU, it’s ultimately a confrontation between Germany and Russia.

• These two have repeatedly clashed for hundreds of years. And every time, this has caused devastation for the entire continent and beyond. They are the deadliest neighbors on this planet.

• The spike in energy and fertilizer prices is igniting concerns about durably higher inflation expectations among policymakers. The inflation surges in India, Philippines, Thailand and Korea are particularly noticeable.
• Real policy rates are negative in Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Philippines. India could be headed there if inflation rises further. Korea, Indonesia and Philippines are already on a tightening path.
• Indian real rates are positive for now, but a deficient monsoon-induced food inflation spike could drive rate hikes later this year. So could Malaysia and Thailand in late 2026.

• If in fact the Houthi-Saudi issues cannot be resolved, there is a risk of even higher oil prices as another combative front opens up.
• Under an absolute worst-case scenario, to which we would assign low odds at this point, would be if there is an attack on Saudi Arabia’s critical facilities at Abqaiq.           
• In the interim, there is no indication that the conflict on the “primary front,” i.e., the U.S. versus Iran, shows any sign of abating.       

• Headline surprises were mixed in the UK’s labour market report. The unemployment rate almost rounded lower, rather than increasing as the consensus expected.
• The ONS imputed responses it forgot to collect in telephone surveys, biasing outcomes to no change, with analysis revealing unemployment would have been lower without it.
• Bonuses disappointed, but total pay growth remains 4%+ with payrolls-based measures 4.5%. Only the ex-bonus ones offer dovish excuses, but they seem spuriously low.

Highlights

• Rubber prices are likely to stay softer amid improving supply and weaker demand in the near term

•  El Nino has already reduced rain in the Indian monsoon and casts doubts over the Southeast Asian outlook

•  Inventory drawdown amid softer imports points to cautious downstream approach amid geopolitical risks

• Investor sentiment is clearly in net bullish territory, but remains well below previous peaks and even further below the levels that have historically sent reliable warning signals.
• The Trade Risk Premium remains low…too low? Deep dive into the Trade Policy Uncertainty indicator.
• Heatmaps visualising Investor Sentiment across 600+ indicators and 48 asset classes

• The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short covering.
• Rising turnover, a supportive tech narrative from Beijing and increased southbound flows indicate that the rally may have legs.  Consumer discretionary and energy sectors have been the top sector performers.
• There is evidence that some short covering catalyzed the rally during the normal June/July tight liquidity period, with low volatility and quality factors outperforming in the broader market.

• Most of the historic rise in JGB yields between 2022-26 came from long-run inflation expectation change and a normalization of term premia (TP) as BoJ lifted its unconventional easing.
• TP across the yield curve has largely finished its normalization process, in particular at the longest end. TP at 10-year has a moderate room to expand further.
• We think the hiking cycle in Japan is already in a late phase. Typically, the longer end of the yield curve starts to decline in a late cycle.

• Active Asia ex-Japan funds returned 28.1% in H1, building on 2025’s exceptional gains and cementing the region as one of the world’s strongest-performing equity markets.
• Technology dominated returns once again, with Taiwan and South Korea’s semiconductor leaders responsible for the majority of market gains.
• A small majority of active managers outperformed the benchmark, supported by South Korean Technology overweights and strong stock selection across the region’s leading Tech names.

• TOP STORIES Cover Story: Europe Fortifies Against China’s New Export Juggernaut A blistering summer heatwave has emptied European store shelves of Chinese portable air conditioners.
• While the trade of these home appliances flows unimpeded, a contentious battle is sweeping the continent over the aggressive expansion of Chinese advanced manufacturing and e-commerce into the European Union (EU).
• FINANCE & ECONOMY China Deploys ‘National Team’ in Multi-Pronged Stock Market Rescue China is orchestrating a coordinated rescue of its plunging stock market, mobilizing state-backed entities to inject billions of dollars to shore up investor confidence.

• Crude futures opened the week higher as the US extended its renewed bombing campaign to a ninth night while Iran continued to hit back against neighbours, although markets rowed back from early highs.
• Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were up 1.4% at $89.31/b (2033 BST) having earlier peaked at $91.42/b , while Aug26 NYMEX  WTI was at $82.72/b , up 1.2% versus Friday’s settle.
• Brent initially topped $90/b for the first time since the June MoU as fears of a major escalation in the conflict heightened concerns for energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but retreated from highs after Iranian officials said mediators had submitted new peace proposals.

• Only 20.5% of active Global funds beat the benchmark in H1 2026, despite absolute returns exceeding 7%.
• Missing a handful of AI-driven winners proved more damaging than being underweight the sector itself.
• As market leadership narrows, the hurdle for active managers continues to rise—making genuine outperformance increasingly difficult to achieve.

• Crude futures were climbing higher on Tuesday as renewed threats to physical oil supplies offset attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.
• Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were up 2.2% at $91.22/b (2015 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $84.50/b , up 2.5% versus Monday’s settle.
• Oil prices had initially rowed back as investors assessed reports of mediation efforts between Iran and the US for a new truce as kinetic activity continued between the two sides, while Yemen’s Houthis have threatened a naval blockade on Saudi vessels.

• El Niño continues to receive a lot of attention and rightfully so.
• However, people often confuse the climate event itself with its investment implications.
• I frequently see investors arguing for broad agriculture exposure during El Niño periods.

• Asia has corrected 10%, propelled by Korea, Taiwan and Onshore China. AI capex anxiety, concerns about spike in inflation and interest rates and Middle East tensions are the main drivers.
• Analysis of last 20 years’ bear market shows that monetary policy tightening has been a regular feature of bear markets, unless severe macro-economic retrenchment (like in GFC) triggers the drawdown.
• Asian policy rates are increasing but we don’t think severe inflation spike is likely yet, unless the Iran war escalates sharply. We like materials, energy, AI “picks and shovels”, financials.

• Despite lots of trade data releases, it is still very difficult to interpret the numbers because of the increase in prices of certain goods, particularly semiconductors and tech products in a number of countries. The only thing that’s really worth noting is the Korea export price index which was up 49%YoY in June.
• Chinese headline GDP came in at 4.3% year on year, which was below expectations of 4.5% and below the government’s 4.5 to 5% target range. However, the real focus should be on nominal GDP which came in at 5.9% YoY. That’s the strongest year on year increase in nominal GDP since the second quarter of 2023.
• Bank of Korea raised interest rates 25 basis points to 2.75, BoK is probably taking a bit of avoiding action for what’s going on in the economy in terms of imported cost increases, but 2.75% won’t be too detrimental to the Korean economy.

• Resilient US economic performance and above-target inflation have tilted Fed policy risks towards modest tightening. Weaker economic activity is required to get inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.
• The Fed’s policy reaction function has pivoted in a hawkish manner and surprised investors.  Taming inflation is the Fed’s priority, ahead of institutional changes to the framework of policy conduct.
• China’s economic data has recently been mixed: robust export performance contrasts with lacklustre domestic demand. The property slump still presents headwinds for households with low income expectations and are deleveraging. 

• For all intents and purposes, the U.S. and Iran have returned to an “all-out” war, given U.S. infrastructure strikes and Iran’s retaliation against Gulf country desalination plants and other assets.      
• As such, as previously discussed, such a scenario has led to a breach of $80.00+ per barrel, basis the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.       
• While a diplomatic solution now appears all but implausible, at this juncture we are still not anticipating the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract returning to $100.00 per barrel.       

• China’s lifestyle platform Xiaohongshu, known overseas as RedNote, is betting that a more diversified user base and business model can underpin long-term growth as it prepares for a Hong Kong IPO.
• Chinese Politburo Member’s Downfall Exposes Shadowy Network Tied to Evergrande
• A Caixin investigation into the downfall of Politburo member Ma Xingrui has uncovered a sprawling political-business syndicate that extracted billions of yuan from real estate deals and dumped toxic assets onto property giant China Vanke Co. Ltd.

• Moonshot unveiled its Kimi K3 AI model, which rivals the top US frontier models in intelligence at a fraction of the run cost.  Kimi K3 ranks third on the AAII.
• The rapid adoption of Chinese AI open-weight models using MoE architecture could bring the semiconductor supply/demand balance forward.  Weekly token share of Chinese models by US firms now exceeds 50%.
• The Token Expenditure Index may be an early indicator that the MoE model token efficiency is reducing the growth rate of token demand and affecting the semiconductor ecosystem going forward. 

• Supply remained tighter than expected as lower exports from Singapore and Taiwan offset the seasonal slowdown in demand.

• Singapore’s imports climbed to a five-year high while exports stayed unusually weak, pointing to subdued domestic production.

• South Korea expanded exports to both Southeast Asia and the US, cementing its role as the market’s key swing supplier.

• China’s Hospitals Are Turning Patient Data Into a Cash Cow Patient files, lab results and medical scans used to sit dormant in hospital archives once a treatment was concluded.
• Now, they are being mined amid a digital gold rush.
• Chinese Consumers Tighten Purse Strings Despite Modest Income Gains 

• Taiwan cargo loadings stayed unusually low for a second week, leaving first-half July volumes below month-earlier levels.
• Singapore took delivery of a swathe of shipments from the Netherlands and US, extending strong inflows over the previous week.
• Singapore also received a large cargo from Qatar, after an almost complete pause in such flows for most of the past two months.

• Fitch affirms Saudi’s ratings to A+, stable outlook.                     

• Kuwait issues another 150mn KWD 3-year.

• A mix bag of recent non-oil PMI’s for the region. • Local liquidity gives the tempo for FX Sar.

• Crude oil futures were climbing higher on Friday to cement a second week of firm gains as the Middle East conflict again dominated sentiment.
• Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent futures were up 4% at $87.53/b (2046 BST), while Aug26 NYMEX WTI was at $81.93/b , up 3.8% versus Thursday’s settle.
• Renewed military action that flared up last week has continued into the second half of July with ongoing strikes on Iranian assets and Tehran hitting back at regional US targets, lifting prices by around 14% since last week’s close.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• CPI came in soft as expected, but rate hike expectations are mixed due to the ongoing conflict
• Hong Kong and China platform names are getting a bid as money rotates out of the “hot” markets

• China’s disappointing April-June GDP growth underscores domestic consumption weakness. Exports continue to skyrocket. Export resilience in power and automobiles, along with higher overseas margins benefit companies with sustainable foreign revenues.
• In 2026, technology, industrials, energy have outperformed. The first two fit the theme of advanced manufacturing and technology-enablers. Combining this with robust overseas revenues, a set of stocks stand out.
• Among these stocks, CATL, Geely, Weichai Power and CNOOC figure in our Model Portfolio.

• Ongoing attacks are accumulating a greater energy supply shock, renewing upside pressures on inflation and European policymakers more than the Fed.
• Disinflationary news in the US and EA June prints focuses on a concentrated soft patch from the temporary drop in energy prices, so this good news should be discounted.
• Next week’s ECB decision should sustain its hawkish bias without acting upon it again so soon. Meanwhile, it’s the UK’s turn to report its disinflationary blip from June.

• TSMC delivered Q2 net income of NT$706.6 billion (+77%YoY), a record quarter that exceeded analysts’ consensus by ~13%.  Management raised FY2026 revenue growth guidance to “slightly above 40%” (from >30%).
• TSMC shares have held up, even as semiconductor sector share prices have entered a bear market. Since June, the shares have moved higher with declining momentum, a negative technical signal.
• The bear case for TSMC is not a single catalyst — it is a confluence of weaker token expenditure for AI, margin compression, valuation de-rating, and demand concentration risk.

• The super-long JGB curve inverts beyond 28 years — an odd behavior if fiscal fear is the primary driver.
• The strange two-hump shape in the yield curve is a coupon effect: low-coupon bonds issued in the deflation era trade at a premium pulling down the curve.
• Investors are not demanding extra yield to hold Japan’s longest duration. On the contrary, they are paying a premium for high-duration bonds.

• Crude oil prices moved sideways for most of Thursday as the market watched for the latest signs of a deteriorating security situation in the Middle East, with the US and Iran trading blows over access to the Strait of Hormuz for a fifth day.
• At 2033 London time the Sep26 Brent contract was trading $0.71 lower at $84.24/b , while the Aug26 WTI contract was down $0.64 at $78.96/b .
• Wednesday’s session saw a rally that had pushed prices to their highest level in a month stutter, with that sideways momentum continuing into Thursday as traders looked to gauge whether retaliatory blows between Washington and Tehran could escalate.

Highlights

• May 2026 exports register a rise of 24.3% YoY to  US$91.48 million

• January-May export earnings at US$404.7 million, up 4.84% YoY

• Colombo Port requires faster turnaround times and lower logistics costs

• As you are aware, from Day 1 of the conflict we assumed that the Strait of Hormuz was Iran’s “Red Line,” and they continue to demonstrate as such.   
• Having said this, despite recent escalations in attacks and President Trump’s continued threats, the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract has yet to break through its recent peaks.        
• Our updated crude oil balance through the end of 2026 continues to suggest a progressive easing after end-August peak “tightness,” but no “surplus.”     

• Commodity and region: US corn (new-crop 2026/27, national)
• Season: 2026 crop year / 2026/27 marketing year
• Vintage: 2026-07-13 (yield leg) and 2026-07-10 (area leg), the two model initialisation dates fused here

• Commodity & region: US winter wheat (hard red winter belt focus)                       
• Season: 2026 crop year / 2026/27 marketing year
• Vintage: yield model 2026-07-13, harvested-area model 2026-07-10

• This week’s commodity headlines split along a single fault line
• USDA’s July 10 reporting cycle pushed corn’s outlook higher and wheat’s lower, and Treefera Market Intelligence’s own benchmarking against that same report shows why, agreeing almost exactly with USDA on corn while reading meaningfully below the official wheat number.
• Cocoa, coffee and cotton each face their own supply scares, and in every case the market is pricing risk either ahead of or behind what the underlying data shows.

• UK GDP’s resilience has persisted to a slightly greater-than-usual extent in Q2, but it is slowing. We expect payback and revisions to deliver Q2 at 0.3% q-o-q, half Q1’s pace.
• May gained the greatest support from seasonal adjustment factors in a decade, besides the pandemic years, further raising the risk of revisions to slightly less spurious norms.
• Slowing in the next two releases should not be sufficient to block a September BoE rate hike amid persistently excessive inflation, but we still see that as a one-and-done move.

• Korea experienced a leveraged “melt-up” in its market in 2002.  Then, margin debt ballooned to historic levels.  This time, leverage is further amplified by single-stock ETFs.
• Technical analysis points to further pressure on the market as this massive leverage is unwound.  Korean retail investors stand to have substantial losses from the leveraged ETFs launched in May.
• The Financial Services Commission has just rolled out a number of measures, including an immediate ban on new single-stock ETFs and increases in margin requirements, starting in August.  

• The BoK’s widely expected 25bp hike to 2.75% starts a new tightening phase, with guidance clearly biased towards further rate increases.
• Strong AI‑led growth and persistent inflation above the 2% target tilt future decisions towards higher terminal rates and longer policy restraint.
• Housing and household debt risks mean rate cuts are unlikely until inflation eases and credit excesses cool, keeping investors focused on BoK data‑dependence.

• How Mercedes, BMW and Audi Hope to Win Back China For decades, Germany’s luxury car triumvirate — Mercedes-Benz Group AG, BMW AG and Audi AG — reigned supreme in China, leveraging their mastery of the internal combustion engine to lock down the high-end segment of the world’s largest car market.
• Analysis: China’s AI Boom Masks a Deepening Economic Divide As artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a powerful engine for China’s exports and industrial profits, economists warn that the boom could exacerbate deep-seated structural inequalities.
• Online Broker Futu Sued in U.S. Over Undisclosed China Regulatory Risks

• For the time being, at least, our trading range peak for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains roughly intact, despite intensified exchanges between the U.S. and Iran.
• At this point we see no reason to revise our outlook, though there are reports that President Trump is considering far more aggressive military action.       
• While the EIA reported a crude oil stock draw for last week versus our estimated build, a primary reason was a smaller contribution from the SPR than we estimated.    

Highlights

• May rubber exports down 24% y-o-y to 74,003 tonnes, value down 14%

• China’s share in Vietnam rubber exports falls to 62.8% from 70.8%

• Indonesia imports jump 163%, becomes second-largest market

• Barisan Nasional won a landslide in Johor’s state election, taking 48 of 56 seats on 60% of the popular vote, with gains that cut across demographic and geographic lines. 
• The result rests on a consolidation of the Malay vote after Perikatan’s tactical withdrawal, alongside a modest but decisive clawback of non-Malay support from Pakatan Harapan. 
• This is best read as an intra-coalition contest that strengthens Barisan’s bargaining position within the federal government as it positions itself ahead of the next federal elections.

• In terms of the “temperature,” if the previous “quid pro quo” was 99 degrees and “all-out war” is “110 in the shade,” we guess we are at 102 degrees. 
• The higher “temperature” has pulled the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract only modestly above our estimated $80.00 per barrel peak, which was consistent with the 99 degree “quid pro quo.”      
• While obviously the conflict could intensify further, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel, and even $90.00 may be difficult to achieve, short of all-out war, as previously defined.     

• The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% as expected, with future rate moves hinging on slack absorption and energy‑driven inflation risks.
• Inflation should ease back to 2% by early 2027 if oil prices follow the futures curve and war‑related cost shocks fade.
• Output gap, tariff uncertainty and a weaker CAD will shape how long rates stay at the bottom of the neutral range.

• Oil futures initially shot higher on Tuesday with Brent hitting its highest level in a month, as a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared to be in tatters as the two traded blows over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• At 2121 London time, the Sep26 Brent contract was trading up 2.53% on the day at $85.41/b while Sep26 WTI was up 2.18% at $79.84/b .
• Brent had soared to $87.55/b in early trade, the highest since mid-June, with the Middle East squarely in focus as the main driver of price action, although benchmarks retreated as the session progressed.

• Options sentiment fractured this week.
• Defensive hedging dominated in healthcare and real estate names, while clean energy attracted a rare burst of pure bullish call flow.
• The week’s most striking signals came from opposite ends of the put-call spectrum, with several names printing z-scores above 4.0.

• Short interest built across cybersecurity names this week, with CRWD leading single-stock moves as analysts cut targets and insiders sold.
• Broad ETF hedges unwound sharply — IJH and CIBR each posted double-digit short interest drops.
• Borrow markets tightened in pockets, with MSFT seeing its sharpest SI spike in months.

• Oil futures were trading largely flat Wednesday at around one-month highs as the market continued to reprice risk around a deteriorating security situation in the Middle East.
• At 2136 London time,  Brent Sep26 futures were trading up 1.28% on the day at  $85.81/b , while Sep26 WTI was up slightly less than Brent at  $80.31/b .
• The latest leg of the rally came after the June truce between the US and Iran continued to unravel, with Washington reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and launching fresh strikes on targets it said were linked to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Why China Needs Its Own Forex Futures Market China’s top financial regulators have called for the creation of a pilot program for onshore yuan foreign exchange (forex) futures.
• As the yuan plays a larger role in global trade, Chinese companies are generating increasingly massive foreign exchange exposures.
• The growing stakes are driving rising demand for better hedging tools.

• A 0.7pp drop in US CPI inflation to 3.5% went 0.3pp further than the consensus forecast to deliver an inverted V-shaped recovery from US energy prices normalising.
• Weakness was broad-based, with the core services impulse falling by 0.2% m-o-m in an abrupt turn from May’s 0.55% surge. Unfortunately, this good news may be an outlier.
• Energy prices rebounded in July, but the US excess relative to the UK will fade swiftly, which would support our view that the BoE will tighten more than the Fed.

• If you ran price risk for anything touching cocoa in 2024, you already know the story in your body, not just your spreadsheet.
• New York cocoa went from around $3,400 a tonne in late 2023 to an all-time high near $12,931 in December 2024 — and then handed back close to 70% of that move through 2025.
• For the desks caught on the wrong side of the timing, it was a year of margin calls, blown budgets, and uncomfortable conversations with the CFO.

• This week, the Fed announced various nominees for the task forces Warsh has set up. Former BoE chief Mervyn King was chosen to lead the new ‘’communications task force’’.
• Back when he was at the helm of the BoE, King proposed the Maradona approach to Central Bank communication: pretend to go right (be hawkish), pretend to go left (be dovish), and in the end get to your final objective without really moving much.
• And given the output of the macro models I use to look at US growth, labor market and inflation the Maradona approach to interest rates could be the best fit.

• The Greek economy continued its expansionary trend through 2025, with real GDP rising to 2.07%, broadly in line with the prior two years.
• The outlook has softened slightly for 2026, however, as the IMF, OECD, and European Commission now average a 1.83% growth projection, moderating further to 1.75% in 2027.
• After finishing 2025 at 2.59% in December 2025, consumer price pressures have risen significantly, with the headline inflation rate surging to 5.22% in May of 2026. 

• Small-Cap valuations were historically depressed, with the Russell 2000 trading at a 26% EV/EBIT discount versus the S&P 500, fueling the recovery.
• Russell 2000 outperformance reflected stronger risk appetite, with its high-beta Dynamic segment returning 61.2% versus 28.0% for Defensive stocks.
• The Russell 2000 rally stalled after the 26 June FTSE Russell reconstitution graduated 42 stocks to the Russell 1000, including top performers like Bloom Energy. 

• Air freight rates continued to ease lower last week according to the latest data from TAC Index, the leading price reporting agency for air freight markets and calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight indices.
• The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) fell for a third successive week, dropping a further -2.5% over seven days to July 13, leaving it still much higher than a year ago following this year’s military conflict in the Gulf – though now by only +20.4% year-on-year.
• Sources said the drop in jet fuel prices in June was continuing to feed through (with a renewed rise in the last week or so yet to have much effect) while demand was also easing into a typical summer lull or ‘low season’ phase – though the market remained vulnerable to sudden spikes with the conflict in the Gulf seemingly still far from a final resolution. 

• The U.S.-Iran conflict’s “temperature” has now risen above the level we had assumed for our estimated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.
• Still short of how we defined an “all-out war,” it nonetheless raises the risk that our $80.00 per barrel trading range peak for the prompt NYMEX contract may be “violated.”     
• In any event, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.    

• World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch The 2026 FIFA World Cup, staged across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, coincides with America’s 250th anniversary and arrives two years before the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.

• For the Trump administration, the sequence of marquee events has become a central part of the political legacy it hopes to build in a second presidential term.

• The U.S. was eliminated July 6 after a 4-1 loss to Belgium in the round of 16.

• Global surplus rebounded to its largest April level in three years.
• Asia’s surplus widened to a four-month high as supply continued outpacing slower demand growth.
• Europe’s production surplus narrowed to a six-month low as lower output tightened regional availability.