Most Read

Gemlife (GLF AU) is looking to raise A$750m in a primary offering, valuing the company at A$1.58bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 3 July.
The Puljich family and Thakral Corp (THK SP) are escrowed on their shares till mid 2026 at the earliest.
Gemlife (GLF AU) could be added to global indexes in November and December this year, but S&P/ASX 300 Index inclusion could take place only in March 2026.

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.
Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 30 – July 04): Narrowing Breadth and Rising Put Activity

By John Ley

Hong Kong single stocks traded lower in a holiday-shortened week.
Breadth pulled back sharply from the previous week’s extremes and Put activity picked up noticeably across single stock options.
Intervention in HKD continues to ramp steadily higher with HKD bumping along top of the range.

Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Placing Shares As ADC Pipeline Products Entering Harvesting Stage

By Tina Banerjee

Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK) is placing 93.8M shares at the placing price of HK$5.02 per H Share. The net proceeds from the placing are expected to be approximately HK$463M.
The company intends to use the proceeds for conducting clinical trial, commercialization, and marketing of the core products, and to fund R&D of new products.
Lepu ended 2024 with a cash balance of RMB401M, which has been augmented by the upfront payment from recent BD deal. The company need not raise fund in near-term.

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP): Sell into Strength

By Scott Foster

KHI has retreated 12% from its June 30 high, but is still 69% above its April low, despite guiding for a decline in orders and weak profits in FY Mar-26.
Orders from Japan’s Ministry of Defense are forecast to drop from ¥772.3 billion to ¥400 billion this fiscal year, while the overall profit of the Aerospace division drops 14%.
The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Power Sports & Engines is not factored into guidance, offsetting what otherwise seem to be conservative assumptions.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 05

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, IFBH, NTT DC REIT, Kcc Corp, FWD Group Holdings, Industrias Penoles, S.A.B. De C.V., Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank, Lens Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
NTT DC REIT IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
KCC Corp: EB Issue of $625 Million Of HD KSOE + KCC Corp and KCC Glass Share Swaps
FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebalance Predictions: Flow Expectations
Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
HEW: Payrolls Waking Up Rates Pricing
SEBI Vs Jane Street: India’s Most Shocking Index Manipulation Case Yet
Lens Technology IPO Preview

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

NTT DC REIT IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) (NDC), a data center REIT, aims to raise up to US$810m in its Singapore IPO.
The IPO portfolio comprises six mainly freehold data centres in the U.S., Austria and Singapore with an aggregate appraised valuation of US$1.6bn
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

KCC Corp: EB Issue of $625 Million Of HD KSOE + KCC Corp and KCC Glass Share Swaps

By Douglas Kim

KCC announced that it is issuing an EB worth $625 million in foreign currency using its stake in HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering as the underlying asset.
The asset that is used as the underlying asset for the EB is 2.056 million shares of HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering held by the KCC Corp
We believe this large EB issue by KCC Corp is likely to have a positive impact on KCC Corp but slightly negative impact on HD KSOE.

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) fails to meet the minimum free float thresholds of both Global indices prior to the IPO lock-up expiry.
The security is expected to be added to Global All-World at the September 2026 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry.
The security is likely to remain excluded from Global Standard even after the lock-up expiry due to insufficient float cap.

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebalance Predictions: Flow Expectations

The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed semi-annually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. We like it because a lot of money tracks it.
There are several potential ADDs/DELs for the Index Rebal Event in September 2025 but as yet most are Medium Conviction. There are a couple of large capping flows expected.

Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice

After Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK) was suspended, again, I mused in Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Now Is The Time To Be Delisted an expected Offer from Jilin Province Trust.
Jilin Province has now made a voluntary Offer at HK$0.70/share (~0.2x P/B!), below my HK$0.80/share estimate. Apart from a Scheme-like vote, this Offer has an onerous 90% acceptance condition.
And IF the Offer fails and IF Jilin Jiutai cannot resume trading, in accordance with Rule 6.01A(2)(b) of the Listing Rules, Jilin Jiutai may be delisted.

HEW: Payrolls Waking Up Rates Pricing

By Phil Rush

Dovish rate pricing had been ignoring resilient data until US payrolls delivered a rude awakening. We believe rates remain too dovish relative to reality and equity prices.
BoE surveys also revealed resilience in defiance of dovish pricing, while the rise in EA unemployment merely matched ECB forecasts and was heavily reliant on Italy.
Next week’s deadline for US tariffs is the main risk event, as not all countries will likely get an extension. Monetary policy decisions come from the RBA, RBNZ, BNM, and BOK.

SEBI Vs Jane Street: India’s Most Shocking Index Manipulation Case Yet

By Nimish Maheshwari

SEBI has cracked down on Jane Street Group, a global trading giant, for manipulating the BANKNIFTY index during expiry days using coordinated cash and F&O trades.
The Group allegedly pushed up prices in morning sessions to create misleading signals, and then profited massively by taking opposite positions in options.
SEBI estimates illegal gains of INR 43,289 crore in Index Options over a two-year period, primarily through this strategy.

Lens Technology IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Lens Technology is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong. Lens Technology is planning to raise as much as HK$4.77 billion (US$608 million) in this IPO.
If the offer size adjustment and overallotment options are exercised, the IPO gross proceeds could increase to HK$6.3 billion (US$803 million).
In 2024, the company held a 13% share of the global market for precision structural parts and modules for consumer electronics and a 20.9% share of smart vehicle interaction systems.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 04

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, IFBH, Lens Technology, Shibaura Electronics, NTT DC REIT, Kcc Corp, Alibaba Health Information Tec and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
NTT DC REIT IPO – Decent Yield, Strong Local Backing, a Few Issues
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Extends Shibaura TOB Limbo at FSA/METI/BOJ Request on FEFTA
NTT DC REIT IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
NTT DC REIT IPO: The Investment Case
KCC Corp: EB Issue of $625 Million Of HD KSOE + KCC Corp and KCC Glass Share Swaps
BoE Surveys Sustain Resilience
Alibaba Health Placement – Delta Placement for EB, but Track Record Isn’t Great

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.

NTT DC REIT IPO – Decent Yield, Strong Local Backing, a Few Issues

Ntt Dc Reit (NTTDCR SP) (NDC), a data center REIT, aims to raise up to US$810m in its Singapore IPO.
The IPO portfolio comprises six mainly freehold data centres in the U.S., Austria and Singapore with an aggregate appraised valuation of US$1.6bn.
In this note, we look at the company’s portfolio and its performance.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Extends Shibaura TOB Limbo at FSA/METI/BOJ Request on FEFTA

YAGEO’s deal for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) had been extended a couple of times – once for Shibaura’s yuho, and once for Taiwan Investment Commission Approval.
YAGEO had re-filed its notification for FEFTA on 2 June, and the “normal” 30 day waiting period expired 1 July. YAGEO extended by 4 business days to 15 July.
The TRS amendment was less informative than the TDNET release today. That’s worth reading. More waiting ahead. But the timing may be politically strategic.

NTT DC REIT IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) (NDC), a data center REIT, aims to raise up to US$810m in its Singapore IPO.
The IPO portfolio comprises six mainly freehold data centres in the U.S., Austria and Singapore with an aggregate appraised valuation of US$1.6bn
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

NTT DC REIT IPO: The Investment Case

NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) is the exclusive S-REIT vehicle sponsored by NTT Group. It has launched an SGX IPO to raise proceeds up to US$864 million.
The IPO portfolio comprises six data centres – three located in California, one in Virginia, one in Vienna, and one in Singapore.
NTT DC REIT offers an attractive value proposition, comprising a blue-chip tenant base, a staggered lease expiry profile, a robust growth pipeline, and sizable debt headroom.

KCC Corp: EB Issue of $625 Million Of HD KSOE + KCC Corp and KCC Glass Share Swaps

By Douglas Kim

KCC announced that it is issuing an EB worth $625 million in foreign currency using its stake in HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering as the underlying asset.
The asset that is used as the underlying asset for the EB is 2.056 million shares of HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering held by the KCC Corp
We believe this large EB issue by KCC Corp is likely to have a positive impact on KCC Corp but slightly negative impact on HD KSOE.

BoE Surveys Sustain Resilience

By Phil Rush

The Decision Maker Panel and Credit Conditions Surveys remained resilient. Price and wage inflation are stuck at excessive levels, and US trade policy makes little difference.
Default rates are falling while the availability and demand for credit are rising to reveal a loosening of monetary conditions. There is no evidence of policy being too tight.
Inflation and labour market data matched BoE forecasts from May, when most members were biased to slow easing. Resilient surveys should discourage it from cutting again.

Alibaba Health Placement – Delta Placement for EB, but Track Record Isn’t Great

Banks are offering US$500m of Alibaba Health Information Tec (241 HK) stock in order to allow Exchangeable Bond investors to hedge their exposure.
Alibaba Health (AH) stock has been heading in the wrong direction for the past few years and it remains unclear if the EB offering was well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 03

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, BayCurrent Consulting , Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Lens Technology, NTT DC REIT, IFBH, Geekplus Technology, Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma, Nh Foods Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
NTT DC REIT IPO – Decent Yield, Strong Local Backing, a Few Issues
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case
Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Speculative Scrip Offer? No Thanks – Vote No
NH Foods Placement: Clean up by Norinchukin Bank; Unrelated Buyback May Buffer Deal
Geek+ IPO (2590.HK): Long-Term, Warehouse Automation Story, But IPO Valuation Is Not Cheap

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is below the 10% cap for now.
ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.

NTT DC REIT IPO – Decent Yield, Strong Local Backing, a Few Issues

Ntt Dc Reit (NTTDCR SP) (NDC), a data center REIT, aims to raise up to US$810m in its Singapore IPO.
The IPO portfolio comprises six mainly freehold data centres in the U.S., Austria and Singapore with an aggregate appraised valuation of US$1.6bn.
In this note, we look at the company’s portfolio and its performance.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case

Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.
Geekplus has been the world’s largest warehouse fulfilment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue for the last six consecutive years.
The investment case is bearish due to declining growth, lower contract liabilities, hints of window dressing relating to reducing losses and ongoing cash burn.

Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Speculative Scrip Offer? No Thanks – Vote No

A little over a year ago, I wrote about Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)‘s overly complicated scrip Offer in Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Absorption Via Speculative Scrip. Avoid.
In summary, Yichang HEC shareholders were being offered 0.263614 “Offeror H shares”. These consideration shares are unlisted. The Offeror being Yichang HEC’s controlling shareholder (51.41%).
The Composite Doc and the Offeror’s Listing by Way Of Introduction Doc are out. The independent H-shareholder vote is the 21st July. Shareholders should vote this down.

NH Foods Placement: Clean up by Norinchukin Bank; Unrelated Buyback May Buffer Deal

By Nicholas Tan

A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$333m from selling their respective stakes in Nh Foods Ltd (2282 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Geek+ IPO (2590.HK): Long-Term, Warehouse Automation Story, But IPO Valuation Is Not Cheap

By Andrei Zakharov

Geek+, global technology company and provider of scalable and flexible highly efficient solutions for warehouses, aims to raise ~$300M in Hong Kong IPO.
The company is expected to IPO next week and offer price of HK$16.80 implies a market cap of HK$22B (~$2.8B). Geek+ is set to start trading on July 9, 2025.
I believe that Geek+ has a large runway for growth in the global AMR solution market, but valuation keeps me from being positive on the name.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 02

Most Read: FWD Group Holdings, BayCurrent Consulting , Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Nissin Corp, Taishin Financial Holding, Geek+, Lens Technology, Hyundai Construction Equipment, MS&AD Insurance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility
Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round
Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates
Ohayo Japan | Investors Rotate Out of Tech; Fed, Tariffs in Focus

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is below the 10% cap for now.
ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility

On 12 May 2025, Bain Capital announced a deal to buy Nissin Corp (9066 JP). The tender was VERY light in price (Bain’s borrowing more than adjusted EV at TOB Price)
And it was very long at 41 days. As of Day 1, they announced a long list of “irrevocables” – 16 holders with 5.75% – who had agreed to tender.
Since then Bain have made 7 separate amendment filings detailing additional irrevocables and one possible additional tender agreement to get to 11.30%. Now it’s extended.

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.

Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round

By Nicholas Tan

Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to $300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robots (AMR) market.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.

HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook

This event offers two arb plays—merger swap and appraisal rights—but there’s barely any juice left as pricing locked the market into an unusually tight range.
Yeah, it’s tight. Unless cancel risk flares up, the spread likely stays muted—major holder’s balanced stakes make vote pushback or ratio disputes pretty unlikely.
One angle to watch: passive flows. HCE likely joins KOSPI 200 post-merger, triggering index buys around Infracore’s halt on Dec 30—potentially a solid year-end positioning play.

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
1,389 new CGRs filed since 1 June 25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Next meeting is in a week. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow.

Ohayo Japan | Investors Rotate Out of Tech; Fed, Tariffs in Focus

By Mark Chadwick

The Dow gained 0.91% to close at 44,494.94 on Tuesday as investors rotated out of technology and into health care stocks
President Donald Trump expressed scepticism on reaching a tariff agreement with Japan, emphasizing his intent to impose duties
Kirin Holdings completed the sale of Kyowa Hakko Bio’s amino acid business

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 01

Most Read: Krungthai Card, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Santos Ltd, BayCurrent Consulting , Nippon Concept, Lens Technology , Ana Holdings, Shift Up, Lens Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call
A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes
Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
Lens Technology A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-June 2025 Ranks (FINAL EXPECTATIONS)
Lens Technology A/H Listing – Pricing Looks Decent
Sizing up September’s KOSPI Size Index Migration Names
Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call

Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana is the second largest shareholder in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), behind Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB).
He also holds stakes in XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB).
All four companies went limit down on the 23rd June. And again the next day. Both KTC and TPS say nothing has fundamentally changed. The cause? Margin calls.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm

I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Humm Group (HUM AU) and VIOL (335890 KS).
Key updates/news took place onSantos (STO AU), PointsBet (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), SmartPay (SMP AU), Dickson Concepts (113 HK), and SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP).

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is below the 10% cap for now.
ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.

Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal

Nippon Concept (9386 JP) has recommended a J-STAR-sponsored MBO at JPY3,060, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
An attractive offer and irrevocables pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from July 1 to August 13, with payment due on August 20.

Lens Technology A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-June 2025 Ranks (FINAL EXPECTATIONS)

JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-June 2025.

Lens Technology A/H Listing – Pricing Looks Decent

Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$600m in its H-share listing.
Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sizing up September’s KOSPI Size Index Migration Names

Early take based on avg daily mkt cap: 5 MID→LARGE, 6 LARGE→MID. Count mismatch due to LG CNS likely making a direct jump into LARGE post-March IPO.
Local insto-driven moves remain tradable — in the March reshuffle, price action started from T–2M, with strongest returns in the T–1M window.
With cap gaps near historical norms, it’s time to pre-position around top/bottom cutline names — then scale up into borderlines as we move into the T–1M window.

Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case

Lens Technology (6613 HK), an industry-leading integrated one-stop precision manufacturing solution provider, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$600 million.
In terms of revenue in 2024, Lens is a global leader in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicle interaction systems.
The investment case is based on a well-performing core business, limited tariff impact, reduced reliance on Apple, strong margins, and robust cash generation.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 30

Most Read: Xero Ltd, FWD Group Holdings, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Gemvax & Kael, Toyota Industries, Saint Bella, HKBN Ltd, Santos Ltd, Anjoy Foods Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise
FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely
Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm
Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion

Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise

Xero Ltd (XRO AU) has entered into a binding agreement to acquire Melio Limited for an upfront cash consideration of US$2.5bn in cash and Xero Ltd (XRO AU) stock.
The cash consideration is being funded mainly through a fully underwritten A$1.85bn (US$1.2bn) institutional placement. There is also a non-underwritten Share Purchase Plan to raise around A$200m.
Given the large size of the institutional placement, there will be an increase in index shares and the passive buying that follows should mop up over 20% of the placement.

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely

67 semi names screen into TMI Large-Mid; with stable churn, they’re a solid base for the Sept rebalance. Filter by ADTV and mkt cap to get likely basket.
Last year’s Sept rebalance saw wild moves, especially in the week prior, driven by low visibility from the non-public BMI universe, which amped up uncertainty and volatility.
This year’s TMI-based rebalance may see more front-loading and smoother flows, but with low market awareness and no playbook yet, chunky moves are still on the table.

Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived

By Andrei Zakharov

Saint Bella, a leading postpartum care and recovery group in China, priced its upsized IPO at fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share.
The offer size adjustment option has been fully exercised. The company issued and allotted 14,313,000 additional offer shares.
Saint Bella sold 109,733,000 shares and raised net proceeds of ~HK$630M or ~$80M. The stock jumped ~49% on first day as a public company and peaked at HK$11.00 per share.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction

China Mobile (941 HK) has secured all PRC regulatory approvals for its HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is approval from the HK Communications Authority.
I Squared, while technically still in the race, is rapidly running out of time. It needs to announce an offer before China Mobile opens its offer for acceptance.
Despite the HKBN CEO’s comments that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, China Mobile has no pressing need to bump if a competing offer fails to materialise.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm

I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Humm Group (HUM AU) and VIOL (335890 KS).
Key updates/news took place onSantos (STO AU), PointsBet (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), SmartPay (SMP AU), Dickson Concepts (113 HK), and SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP).

Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), already listed in Shanghai, is offering 40 million shares in Hong Kong to raise up to HKD2.6 billion (USD335 million); Offer closes today, June 30th.
HK offer is priced at a decent discount to A share price and at valuation multiples that are aligned with its peer group and business fundamentals.
With limited organic growth and little evidence of a strategic pivot to higher-value offerings, Anjoy Foods lacks a compelling long term investment case.

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) fails to meet the minimum free float thresholds of both Global indices prior to the IPO lock-up expiry.
The security is expected to be added to Global All-World at the September 2026 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry.
The security is likely to remain excluded from Global Standard even after the lock-up expiry due to insufficient float cap.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 29

Most Read: GQG Partners , Amman Mineral Internasional, Greatland Gold, VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA, Thakral Corp, Contact Energy, FWD Group Holdings, BioPharma Credit PLC Fund, Gemvax & Kael, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update
Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
Curator’s Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan
Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year
Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion
FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25 Results: Methodology Change Could Result in a Surprise Addition
KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely
Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April

S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.

Curator’s Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we spotlight building materials corporate actions, gold miners’ benchmark shifts, and semaglutide’s prospects in India and Japan
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year

Gemlife (GLF AU) is looking to raise A$750m in a primary offering, valuing the company at A$1.58bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 3 July.
The Puljich family and Thakral Corp (THK SP) are escrowed on their shares till mid 2026 at the earliest.
Gemlife (GLF AU) could be added to global indexes in November and December this year, but S&P/ASX 300 Index inclusion could take place only in March 2026.

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.
Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25 Results: Methodology Change Could Result in a Surprise Addition

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We see three M&A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review (one announced later today) and then two more shortly after the rebal event.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F250 index during the September 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.

KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely

67 semi names screen into TMI Large-Mid; with stable churn, they’re a solid base for the Sept rebalance. Filter by ADTV and mkt cap to get likely basket.
Last year’s Sept rebalance saw wild moves, especially in the week prior, driven by low visibility from the non-public BMI universe, which amped up uncertainty and volatility.
This year’s TMI-based rebalance may see more front-loading and smoother flows, but with low market awareness and no playbook yet, chunky moves are still on the table.

Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April

By Vinod Nedumudy

Thailand’s rubber export value dips 18.58% MoM in April 2025
Staggering 43.6% fall in Thai rubber imports value to China
Rubber producers can now use trees as collateral for loans

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 28

Most Read: ROHM Co Ltd, Hygon Information Technology C, Amman Mineral Internasional, Greatland Gold, Xero Ltd, FWD Group Holdings, Krungthai Card, Max Healthcare Institute, Tung Ho Steel Enterprise, Ain Holdings Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Rohm (6963) To Replace NTT Data Group (9613)
Hygon/Sugon Merger: BIG Index Flows on Completion
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update
Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise
FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Multiple Changes to Expected ADDs/DELs; New Pair Trade Ideas
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep25: Shin Kong Replacement + One Dark Horse TDIV Potential DEL
Ain’s Purchase of Kraft a Sign of More Drugstore M&A to Come

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Rohm (6963) To Replace NTT Data Group (9613)

Following the results of NTT (9432 JP)‘s tender offer for NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), NTT Data will be deleted from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX).
ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) will be added to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close on 3 July. The stock is up a fair bit from its lows.
Nearly all the NTT Data Corp shares not tendered will be held by passives and there will be selling in the stock as index providers move the float lower/delete.

Hygon/Sugon Merger: BIG Index Flows on Completion

On 26 May, Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH) and Dawning Information Industry (603019 CH) announced a merger in a sign of consolidation in China’s chipmaking industry.
For each share of Dawning held, shareholders will receive 0.5525 shares of Hygon. With uncertainty on the timeline for merger completion, Dawning is trading at a 10% discount.
On completion of the merger, passive trackers will need to buy over US$1.1bn of Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH) with nearly of that from local index trackers.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.

Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise

Xero Ltd (XRO AU) has entered into a binding agreement to acquire Melio Limited for an upfront cash consideration of US$2.5bn in cash and Xero Ltd (XRO AU) stock.
The cash consideration is being funded mainly through a fully underwritten A$1.85bn (US$1.2bn) institutional placement. There is also a non-underwritten Share Purchase Plan to raise around A$200m.
Given the large size of the institutional placement, there will be an increase in index shares and the passive buying that follows should mop up over 20% of the placement.

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call

Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana is the second largest shareholder in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), behind Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB).
He also holds stakes in XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB).
All four companies went limit down on the 23rd June. And again the next day. Both KTC and TPS say nothing has fundamentally changed. The cause? Margin calls.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Multiple Changes to Expected ADDs/DELs; New Pair Trade Ideas

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the September 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 in the September 2025 rebal.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep25: Shin Kong Replacement + One Dark Horse TDIV Potential DEL

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event.
Currently, we see no changes for T50 and one change for T100 in September.

Ain’s Purchase of Kraft a Sign of More Drugstore M&A to Come

By Michael Causton

The merger of Tsuruha and Welcia got the green light in May and will further galvanise the sector to consolidate, especially in prescriptions due to the shortage of qualified staff.
Which is why Ain has confirmed the acquisition of Kanto-based prescription drug chains operated by Kraft.
The move will help maintain Ain’s dominance in the dispensing pharmacy sector and encourage further M&A.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 27

Most Read: GMO Internet, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , GQG Partners , Xero Ltd, EBOS Group , FWD Group Holdings, Laopu Gold, Santos Ltd, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries , Square Enix Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine
S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Update with New Important Market Consultation Implications
FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Lockup Expiry Ahead. After 2000% Rally, Is There Still Shine Left?
Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover
EB Event Trade Setup: HD KSOE Lining up a New Deal with HD Hyundai Heavy as the Underlying
Japan Activist Watch | Square Enix, DaitoTrust, Iriso & INES

GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE

GMO Internet (4784 JP) was created by the reverse takeover of a listed cad/media company by its parent company’s “internet infrastructure” business. GMO Internet Group ended up with ~98%.
In the process, the stock rose 500%. Now, as part of its promise to the TSE allowing TSE Prime membership for the extraordinarily low-float target, the parent is offering shares.
The squeeze has it at 180x Dec25e EPS, 111x EBIT, 70x book. The offering likely gets pulled and the stock isn’t shortable… so what next? Pain, and an ECLWO.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.

S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.

Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise

Xero Ltd (XRO AU) has entered into a binding agreement to acquire Melio Limited for an upfront cash consideration of US$2.5bn in cash and Xero Ltd (XRO AU) stock.
The cash consideration is being funded mainly through a fully underwritten A$1.85bn (US$1.2bn) institutional placement. There is also a non-underwritten Share Purchase Plan to raise around A$200m.
Given the large size of the institutional placement, there will be an increase in index shares and the passive buying that follows should mop up over 20% of the placement.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Update with New Important Market Consultation Implications

Couple of days ago, I published my index change expectations for the ASX index family in the run up to the September 2025 index review (link).
After market close yesterday, the index provider announced a market consultation on potential changes to the index methodology which could become effective during the September review if it gets approved.
This is a short insight with our revised ranks for the potential ADDs and DELs assuming the market consultation gets approved.

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Lockup Expiry Ahead. After 2000% Rally, Is There Still Shine Left?

By Devi Subhakesan

Laopu Gold (6181 HK)’s 365-day lockup on shares held by pre-IPO investors expires tomorrow (June 27), more than doubling its current free float.
Near-Term pressure on the stock is likely, given the sharp increase in tradable shares, mixed gold price outlook, and limited retail investor access after a steep rally.
A potential stock split could broaden investor participation, improve liquidity and serve as a catalyst for next leg of stock upside.

Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover

There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply?
And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE’s similar critical assets?

EB Event Trade Setup: HD KSOE Lining up a New Deal with HD Hyundai Heavy as the Underlying