Daily Briefs

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD944.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,396mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial, Mediatek.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Ctos Digital, Eco World Develop, Berjaya, Drb – Hicom, Ytl

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD0.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ctos Digital, Eco World Develop, Berjaya, Drb – Hicom, Ytl.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 2nd): Daewoo Shipbuilding, Kakao, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD497.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD580mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Daewoo Shipbuilding, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Delta Electronics, Scc, Krung Thai Bank

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of May 2nd. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Scc, Krung Thai Bank, Gulf Energy Development, Tisco Financial, True, Cp Foods, Central Retail.

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May 05

Daily Brief ESG: Pre AGM Annual Securities Report Disclosure as a Clue to a True Dialogue with Investors and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Pre AGM Annual Securities Report Disclosure as a Clue to a True Dialogue with Investors

Pre AGM Annual Securities Report Disclosure as a Clue to a True Dialogue with Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

Based on experience with “TSE’s request,” it’s impossible to request the same level of disclosure from every company. Companies that overseas investors can target should be requested to disclose proactively.
This “FSA’s request” is expected to potentially cause companies to lose the effectiveness of the tactics they have used to control AGMs. Future steps are expected.
The slowdown in profit margin growth may also increase calls for improved corporate governance practices, with more companies reducing cross-shareholdings and launching stronger shareholder returns.

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May 05

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Two-Wheeler Sales – April 2025; Divergent Trends. Top Takeaways and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Two-Wheeler Sales – April 2025; Divergent Trends. Top Takeaways

Two-Wheeler Sales – April 2025; Divergent Trends. Top Takeaways

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)’s April Slump: Operational, Not Structural Temporary plant shutdowns dragged volumes; normalization expected. Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) : Domestic Drag, Exports Hold Up.
TVS Motor (TVSL IN) : Momentum + Execution = Strong across domestic, exports, and EVs. Growth outperformance could justify its valuation premium — but how long can it hold?
Demand Tailwinds Strengthen into May : Favorable marriage seasonality, recovering rural sentiment, and lean channel inventory suggest a stronger May — key for stocks at current levels.

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May 05

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha
Pre-IPO CF PharmTech – The Outlook Is Bleak Due to VBP and Fierce Competition

ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is said to be gearing up for an IPO launch this month, as per media reports.
On the placements front, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) was the only sizable placement over the past week that we covered.

Pre-IPO CF PharmTech – The Outlook Is Bleak Due to VBP and Fierce Competition

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Unlike most biotech companies in Hong Kong which focus on innovative drugs, CF PharmTech mainly produces generic drugs. Its revenue mainly comes from CF017, with high single product risk.
The pipelines have to face fierce competition and don’t have advantage in R&D progress in from of competing candidates. CF PharmTech is hard to generate decent profits due to VBP.
Since its establishment, CF PharmTech has raised its valuation step by step through multiple rounds of capital increase and equity transfer.Valuation was RMB4.021 billion in 2022, which is already high.

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May 05

Daily Brief Credit: EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression
Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist
YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI

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May 05

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated
Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.
Silicon Motion (SIMO US) Taps NVIDIA AI Pipeline, Sees PC Market Turning
China Healthcare Weekly (May.4)-HK Stock Is About to Soar, Mindray’s Trouble,Views on Akeso’s Plunge
Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract
Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push
Airtasker Ltd – Key RaaS KPIs heading in the right direction

JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated

By Rahul Jain

Strong FY25 growth, but bulk cargo (~90%) dominates, keeping revenue per ton lower versus peers.
Targeting 10% volume and 50% logistics growth by FY27, with heavy CAPEX and Navkar integration focus.
Trades at ~28x EV/EBITDA, ~40x P/E — far higher than Adani Ports; promoter dilution likely to meet public float norms.

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

By Patrick Liao

We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.
Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products.

Silicon Motion (SIMO US) Taps NVIDIA AI Pipeline, Sees PC Market Turning

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

SIMO beat 1Q25 EPS estimates by 20%, with strong gross margins (47.1%) driven by PCIe Gen 5 SSD controller mix and tight cost control.
SIMO’s MonTitan confirmed as boot SSD supplier for NVIDIA’s BlueField-3 DPU, marking SIMO’s formal entry into NVIDIA-linked enterprise AI storage.
Management maintains $1bn revenue run-rate target for 4Q25, supported by PCIe 5, UFS 4.1, and MonTitan ramps. We maintain our Structural Long rating.

China Healthcare Weekly (May.4)-HK Stock Is About to Soar, Mindray’s Trouble,Views on Akeso’s Plunge

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The HKD hit its upper limit of 7.75/USD. Capital inflows are expected post–Labor Day, likely boosting Hong Kong stock prices.
Mindray faces headwinds. A turnaround may come in 25Q3–Q4, but the market seeks a new growth story. A 20–25x TTM P/E reflects fair value, not undervaluation.
Akeso’s high valuation leans on HARMONi-3 and HARMONi 7 over HARMONi-2. Final OS data raises concerns, as MRCT is challenging and the safety margin is lower than expected.

Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

By Daniel Hellberg

SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest
Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 — how’d they do it?
Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability

Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push

Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
The company has announced it has signed a five-year, exclusive supply agreement with US-based metal additive manufacturing technology company Velo3D (OTC:VLDX) for mission-critical parts in the defence, space and aviation industries (ASX release 29 April).
Amaero said, based on demand estimates from Velo3D, revenue from C103 and titanium alloy powder sales over the five-year agreement are expected to equal approximately US$22m (A$35m).

Airtasker Ltd – Key RaaS KPIs heading in the right direction

Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
ART has reported its Q3 FY25 trading update with key RaaS KPIs all heading in the right direction.
Another quarter of positive cash flow was achieved, resulting in a stable net cash position of $18.3m.

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May 05

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20
Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill
Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet
Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future
Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20

On 2 May, Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) disclosed receiving a third non-binding scheme proposal from another international strategic at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12), 20% premium to the Tyro Payments (TYR AU) offer.
Smartpay previously disclosed a NZ$1.00 cash/scrip bid from Tyro and an undisclosed offer from an international strategic (rumoured to be Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)).
Smartpay was susceptible to bids due to the RBA’s surcharge review, but the shareholder structure necessitates an attractive offer. The NZ$1.20 offer is attractive.

Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK).

Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP).

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.

Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)

By Richard Howe

S&P Global (SPGI) announced on April 29, 2025, its intention to spin off its Mobility division into a standalone publicly traded company.
This strategic move aims to streamline operations and allow S&P Global to concentrate on its core businesses: Market Intelligence, Ratings, Commodity Insights, and Dow Jones Indices.
The Mobility division, which provides data and analytics to the automotive industry, generated $1.6 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024, marking an 8% year-over-year increase.

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May 05

Daily Brief Macro: Trend Asset Allocation Model Update: Still Cautious and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Trend Asset Allocation Model Update: Still Cautious
Trust the Thrust, or Sell in May?

Trend Asset Allocation Model Update: Still Cautious

By Cam Hui

Our Trend Asset Allocation Model is a market timing model with a record from 2013. A model portfolio using its out-of-sample signals achieved 85/15 like returns with 60/40 like risk.
Our review shows that the main components of the global economy are either weak or neutral.
This calls for a risk-off defensive posture to portfolio construction. Trump’s trade wars have only just begun and recession risk is rising.

Trust the Thrust, or Sell in May?

By Cam Hui

We are seeing a resurgence of buy signals, or at least constructive signs for stock prices.
Against that, the stock market is also facing a number of bearish headwinds, such as the “Sell in May” negative seasonality influence.
We believe the intermediate path of equity prices is down. However, the reflex rally is a much-hated one and the short-term pain trade may be up.

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May 05

Most Read: Laopu Gold, Evolution Mining, Hanwha Ocean , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), S&P/ASX 200, Smartpay Holdings, Toyota Industries, Shibaura Electronics, Oisix ra daichi, BP PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies
Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views
ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength
Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20
Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Ainsworth Game, Bright Smart, PointsBet, Dickson Concepts, Canvest, Shibaura
Oisix: Major Growth Expected in Foodtech
Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

By Brian Freitas

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

By Brian Freitas

Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

By Brian Freitas

Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV.
Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
In CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, a leading market position, forecasted return to growth, peer-leading profitability, cash generation, peer-leading FCF margin and an attractive valuation are highlighted.
In this note, I examine the likely discount CATL will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

By Nico Rosti

Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20

On 2 May, Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) disclosed receiving a third non-binding scheme proposal from another international strategic at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12), 20% premium to the Tyro Payments (TYR AU) offer.
Smartpay previously disclosed a NZ$1.00 cash/scrip bid from Tyro and an undisclosed offer from an international strategic (rumoured to be Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)).
Smartpay was susceptible to bids due to the RBA’s surcharge review, but the shareholder structure necessitates an attractive offer. The NZ$1.20 offer is attractive.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

By David Blennerhassett

Toyota Chair TOYODA made a proposal to take over Toyota Industries (6201 JP), not because he loves forklifts etc; but an opportunistic way to buy a large block of Toyota.
Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders voted down Palliser’s proposal to review its dual-company structure. That was the right outcome.
Hainan Meilan (357 HK)‘s H-share Offer price of HK$10.62/share is not compelling; but it’s not meant to be, as the SPA Buyer and Seller are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Ainsworth Game, Bright Smart, PointsBet, Dickson Concepts, Canvest, Shibaura

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: Ainsworth Game (AGI AU), Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), and of course, Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), and Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

Oisix: Major Growth Expected in Foodtech

By Michael Causton

Given Japan’s growing interest in food-based health solutions, multiple players are looking to build businesses in the field across gut health and dietary solutions for the old and infirm.
Oisix, the leading online food retailer has developed an incubator for start ups in this area.
It is hoping to create a mini silicon valley for food tech businesses.

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.

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May 05

Daily Brief Australia: Airtasker, Amaero International Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Airtasker Ltd – Key RaaS KPIs heading in the right direction
Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push

Airtasker Ltd – Key RaaS KPIs heading in the right direction

Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
ART has reported its Q3 FY25 trading update with key RaaS KPIs all heading in the right direction.
Another quarter of positive cash flow was achieved, resulting in a stable net cash position of $18.3m.

Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push