Category

TMT/Internet

TMT: Tencent, Link Administration Holdings, BASE Inc, Nexon, Shufti Pro, Blackline Inc, Sift Science, Hummingbird Technologies, Bumble, Cochlear Ltd Unspon Adr and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI May 2022 Index Rebalance: Flow Due to FIF Changes
  • Link Risk/Reward Benefits with the Messaging from DND’s Earnings Call
  • Base Inc: Shoppers Return to Offline, More Downside Left
  • Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives
  • Shufti Pro: Identity Verification Using AI
  • Polen Global SMID Company Growth Q1 2022 Portfolio Manager Commentary
  • Sift: Machine Learning to Prevent Fraud
  • Hummingbird: A Modern RegTech Platform Not Requiring an Integration
  • Polen U.S. Small Company Growth Q1 2022 Portfolio Manager Commentary
  • Polen International Small Company Growth Q1 2022 Portfolio Manager Commentary

MSCI May 2022 Index Rebalance: Flow Due to FIF Changes

By Brian Freitas


Link Risk/Reward Benefits with the Messaging from DND’s Earnings Call

By Arun George

  • DND’s 3QFY22 last night continued to suggest DND’s commitment to complete the Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) acquisition.
  • DND management’s messaging in the call downplayed the MAC risk of a contract renewal but shifted incrementally more bearish on the ACCC review, in our view.
  • The risk-reward calculus is now incrementally more positive. The gross spread is wide at 24.4% with the “deal-break” valuation of A$4.18 (-5% below the last close) limiting downside risk.

Base Inc: Shoppers Return to Offline, More Downside Left

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • BASE Inc (4477 JP) is up more than 27% today as the Mothers Index bounced back 4.5% following a steep sell-off during the last one-month period.
  • Nevertheless, results were disappointing on both the top line and the bottom line with Q1 revenue and operating loss of ¥2,512m (consensus ¥2,659m) and ¥272m (consensus ¥139.2m) respectively.
  • After disappointing the market with a guidance range that was significantly below consensus in 2021, Base Inc has withheld from providing 2022 guidance.

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

By Joe Jasper

  • Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany’s DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
  • The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
  • Relative strength on Japan’s TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors

Shufti Pro: Identity Verification Using AI

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shufti Pro (1988739D LN) provides AI-based identification verification solutions offering real-time global identity verification for KYC/AML and KYB compliance.
  • In 2020, the company grew its revenue by over 100% due to strong adoption skills and flexibility allowing to capture the growth in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • While flexibility helps Shufti Pro stand out from competitors, global expansions, growth in identity fraud and a number of strong partnerships would drive company revenues over the medium-term.

Polen Global SMID Company Growth Q1 2022 Portfolio Manager Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • Polen Capital is a high-conviction growth investment manager.
  • Over the first quarter of 2022, Polen Global SMID Company Growth Composite Portfolio returned -22.37% gross and – 22.48% net of fees, respectively, versus the -6.41% return of the MSCI ACWI SMID Capitalization Index.

Sift: Machine Learning to Prevent Fraud

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Sift Science (0747031D US) uses machine learning to help companies with detecting fraud, fake accounts and money laundering.  
  • The company’s business is claimed to have tripled since 2018.
  • The growth of internet crime and increasing account takeover fraud will act as drivers for the company.

Hummingbird: A Modern RegTech Platform Not Requiring an Integration

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Hummingbird Technologies (1681343D LN) allows companies without easy access to IT or engineering resources carry out anti-money laundering practices.
  • Unmet demand in the AML market, strong partnerships and expansion to new markets are expected to act as key drivers.  
  • The company claims to allow clients reduce investigation and reporting times by 70-90%.

Polen U.S. Small Company Growth Q1 2022 Portfolio Manager Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • Polen Capital is a high-conviction growth investment manager.
  • Over the first quarter, Polen U.S.
  • Small Company Growth Composite Portfolio returned -21.98% gross and -22.18% net of fees, respectively, underperforming the -12.63% return of the Russell 2000 Growth Index.

Polen International Small Company Growth Q1 2022 Portfolio Manager Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • Polen Capital is a high-conviction growth investment manager.
  • Over the first quarter of 2022, Polen International Small Company Growth Composite Portfolio returned -22.48% gross and – 22.73% net of fees, respectively, versus the -6.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Softbank Group, Tokyo Electron, Microstrategy Inc Cl A, SUMCO Corp, Xperi, Arlo Technologies Inc, Ubiquiti Inc., Avaya Holdings Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank Group Q4 21 Results Reaction: The Tech Winter Is Here
  • TEL – Margin Disappointment
  • MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Money From Nothing Is Worth?
  • Sumco – Still Underestimated
  • XPER: Streaming Free Cash Flow
  • ARLO: Prepping for Acceleration
  • UI: Shrinking Float Thru Buybacks
  • AVYA: Burning Thru Cash, Sell

Softbank Group Q4 21 Results Reaction: The Tech Winter Is Here

By Kirk Boodry

  • Softbank reported record losses, as expected, including some writedowns in the private portfolio. That may not be enough to assuage concerns with valuations still in free fall
  • Management says tech’s day will come again and it is best to be more defensive for now, including a slower pace of investing, which we think is positive
  • Concern on weak tech and high leverage likely keep the discount in the mid-50s range.  There was nothing today to signal an inflection is at hand

TEL – Margin Disappointment

By Mio Kato

  • TEL generated ¥169bn in OP in 4Q, well above consensus at ¥150bn and even our ¥160bn estimate. 
  • The issue is that this was on ¥565bn in revenue, well above ourselves and consensus, due to ramping R&D and depreciation expenses. 
  • Those expenses also meant that guidance of ¥716bn in OP was just barely above consensus at ¥692bn.

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Money From Nothing Is Worth?

By David Blennerhassett

  • MicroStrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) is now trading at a ~26% discount to NAV as the bitcoin barbeque continues.  
  • Bitcoin is down ~40% YTD. If it falls another 24%, this will trigger a margin call on one of its loans.
  • Should bitcoin decline to US$17.5k, MSTR’s crypto bet falls short of its debt obligation; debt that its software ops are not sufficiently profitable enough to service. 

Sumco – Still Underestimated

By Mio Kato

  • Sumco 1Q revenues were on the strong side, 1.5% above consensus but OP beat by 9.9%. 
  • As we have been flagging, consensus is underestimating operating leverage and that was before the weakening of the yen. 
  • Revenue guidance for 2Q was 4.9% above consensus and OP 12.8% higher but we expect results to be an even larger beat.

XPER: Streaming Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER reported first quarter results setting the path for the Company to generate approximately $200 million in free cash flow in 2022
  • The outperformance on the revenue line resulted in XPER exceeding our non-GAAP net income and EPS estimates
  • During the first quarter of 2022, XPER renewed a license with a virtual multichannel video programming distributor (“MVPD”)

ARLO: Prepping for Acceleration

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO continued to grow the number of paid subscribers as consumers see the benefits of having an alert for their installed security cameras
  • ARLO reported a positive net income for the second straight quarter just as the firm is getting ready to launch a new brand awareness campaign in 2H22
  • ARLO reiterated its plans to increase marketing expense in the second half of 2022 to accelerate growth in 2023

UI: Shrinking Float Thru Buybacks

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The supply chain issues that became an obstacle for Ubiquiti (UI) have yet to abate. Ubiquiti missed fiscal third quarter (March) estimates with a meaningful decline in service provider revenue
  • The Company burned through inventory in the quarter and used its cash flow to aggressively repurchase shares
  • Ubiquiti’s foray into services should broaden the revenue stream and improve cash flow, but it could be another few quarters before this becomes a needle moving endeavor

AVYA: Burning Thru Cash, Sell

By Hamed Khorsand

  • AVYA has exhausted investor patience in the Company’s quest to transform into a subscription revenue business
  • Liquidity overtaking the conversation from ARR could have bigger impact to the stock price as investors try to assess the timing of when AVYA could generate free cash flow
  • AVYA reported fiscal second quarter revenue of $716 million below the Company’s guidance and our $739 million estimate

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Link Administration Holdings, Ricoh Company Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr, Capcom Co Ltd, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Coupang, Chainalysis, Ayasdi, Forter and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Now Link Admin Takes A Bath – Time To Buy
  • Link’s Shares Collapse as Worries of Buyer’s Remorse Sets In
  • Ricoh (7752) Buyback – Big, But Not. But Not Small.
  • TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023
  • Capcom – Can They Keep Suppressing Profit?
  • SMIC (981.HK): 2Q22 Preview- We Estimate Around 5% Growth Could Be the Case
  • Coupang 1Q 2022 Earnings: Beats Consensus Earnings Estimates (A High Conviction Turnaround Play)
  • Chainalysis: Blockchain Service Capturing Crypto Crime
  • AyasdiAI: Exposing Financial Crime Using Topology
  • Forter: New Products and Strong Partnerships Driving Growth for Fraud Solutions

Now Link Admin Takes A Bath – Time To Buy

By David Blennerhassett

  • Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) cratered this morning ahead of a pause in trading. 
  • Link said it is unaware of the reason for the decline; however, the unfortunate timing of the ACCC delay and the MAC disconnect between Offeror and Target are not helping. 
  • Break price fair value has emerged. Separately, Link is coming up “cheap” versus its holding in PEXA Group (PXA AU).

Link’s Shares Collapse as Worries of Buyer’s Remorse Sets In

By Arun George

  • Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) claims to be not aware of any reason for today’s -15% share collapse. The market seems nervy that DND will exhibit buyer’s remorse. 
  • The scheme consideration is now 2.6x DND’s market cap. The ACCC delayed review and the contract renewal MAC clause could be DND’s get-out-of-jail-free card for a lower price/walk-away. 
  • Our “deal-break” SoTP valuation suggests a valuation of A$4.24 per share, which is broadly in line with the last close price. The next catalyst is DND’s results tomorrow.

Ricoh (7752) Buyback – Big, But Not. But Not Small.

By Travis Lundy

  • Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) announced earnings disappointed, but guidance is above forecast as some Q4 business was pushed back.
  • The company also announced a buyback. The headline at 7.5% of shares out is big. Reality is lower. 
  • This sets up a somewhat complex dynamic of flows in near space and far space, and relative to peers. But we look at it anyway.

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

By Patrick Liao

  • TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.
  • It’s believed the Fabless company’s margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.
  • There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.

Capcom – Can They Keep Suppressing Profit?

By Mio Kato

  • Capcom results were previously flagged with a late guidance upgrade and so were unsurprising. 
  • Guidance was a touch above consensus at both the revenue and OP levels but look somewhat conservative even on assumed unit volumes. 
  • But we think there is significant upside to unit volumes and Capcom’s biggest challenge will be to hold down profit so they can generate double digit growth the year after.

SMIC (981.HK): 2Q22 Preview- We Estimate Around 5% Growth Could Be the Case

By Patrick Liao

  • We think SMIC is likely to reach the high-end of 1Q22 guidance, which was US$6,259~6,368mn/36~38% respectively.
  • We thick SMIC is likely to reach ~US$6,680mn/39% for revenue/GM respectively in 2Q22.
  • SMIC cannot have the EUV machine because of the Wassenaar Arrangement. Therefore, SMIC has to optimize its operation and to expand 28nm and above technologies.

Coupang 1Q 2022 Earnings: Beats Consensus Earnings Estimates (A High Conviction Turnaround Play)

By Douglas Kim

  • Coupang reported better than expected results in 1Q 2022. Coupang had operating loss of $205.7 million in 1Q 2022, which was 31% better than consensus. 
  • This is a High Conviction turnaround story marked by significant improvement in profit margins. The company’s gross profit increased by an impressive 42% YoY. 
  • Given Coupang’s excellent earnings in 1Q 2022, the tide has turned on Coupang and there is likely to be improving positive sentiment on this stock in the next several weeks.

Chainalysis: Blockchain Service Capturing Crypto Crime

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Chainalysis (1316611D US) is a leading blockchain data platform which helps carry out investigations into illicit crypto activity and hence prevent crypto crime.
  • Around 2/3rd of Chainalysis’ revenue comes from government agencies and the company is said to have generated around US$ 10m from Federal Organisations since inception.
  • There are now several growth drivers including a fast-rising level of crypto crime, growing cryptocurrency market and implementation of cryptocurrency regulations among others.

AyasdiAI: Exposing Financial Crime Using Topology

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Ayasdi (0343503Z US) is somewhat unique in it using a mathematical framework – topology, to analyse data sets and detect financial crime and fraud.
  • The company follows a quote-pricing model, but pricing is generally considered less expensive than the industry average.  
  • The growth of financial crime and the bioinformatics industry alongside improved recognition for the company can be expected to drive future revenues.

Forter: New Products and Strong Partnerships Driving Growth for Fraud Solutions

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Forter (1397978D LN) uses machine learning to detect fraud and approve online transactions in real-time.
  • With the surge in online shopping with COVID-19, the amount of online fraud increased, allowing Forter to experience strong revenue growth.
  • New product innovations and a number of strong partnerships will continue to drive the company forward.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Nintendo Co Ltd, Link Administration Holdings, Eqt Corp, Adaptive Biotechnologies, Constellation Software, Adobe Systems and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Nintendo (7974) – Earnings Forecasts⬇︎ Stock Split, Buyback, and HOW TO SELL WELL
  • Link Admin (LNK AU): 13 July Scheme Meeting As Dye & Durham Takes A Bath
  • Nintendo – A Stock Split And Not Much Else
  • Link’s Scheme Meeting on 13 July, High Spread Reflects Deal Risk
  • Third Point First Quarter 2022 Investor Letter
  • Aristotle Capital Management Large Cap Growth Q1 2022 Commentary
  • Constellation Software ($CSU.TO, $CNSWF).
  • Aristotle Capital Management Focus Growth Q1 2022 Commentary

Nintendo (7974) – Earnings Forecasts⬇︎ Stock Split, Buyback, and HOW TO SELL WELL

By Travis Lundy

  • Nintendo has announced in-line-ish results for March 2022, and quite disappointing forecasts for March 2023. Mio Kato called it on 30 March as a sell. Excellent timing. 
  • Nintendo has a buyback tomorrow and if you don’t like the guidance, you should DEFINITELY read on below.
  • But Nintendo also announced something truly extraordinary – a stock split. Everyone pooh-poohs the impact of a stock split but… in this case it is probably not nothing.

Link Admin (LNK AU): 13 July Scheme Meeting As Dye & Durham Takes A Bath

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Supreme Court of New South Wales today approved the convening of a Scheme Meeting for Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) on the 13 July.  
  • The Explanatory Booklet has been registered with ASIC. The Independent Expert (Deloitte) has concluded that the A$5.50/share Scheme Consideration is fair and reasonable. 
  • Separately, the Offeror, Canada’s Dye & Durham, has seen its shares decline 57% since the release of its 2Q22 results.

Nintendo – A Stock Split And Not Much Else

By Mio Kato

  • Nintendo results were in-line with both revenue and OP within 1% of consensus. 
  • Guidance was extremely weak missing consensus by 5.5% at the revenue line and 20.5% at the OP line. 
  • Nintendo gonna Nintendo so this is nothing to panic about but it isn’t positive either… though the stock split is.

Link’s Scheme Meeting on 13 July, High Spread Reflects Deal Risk

By Arun George

  • The Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) scheme meeting is scheduled for 13 July. The independent expert has concluded that the Dye & Durham (DND) offer is fair and reasonable.
  • The offer faces significant risks which are ACCC review (findings delayed from the 26 May release date), a contract renewal potentially triggering the MAC clause and an ongoing FCA investigation.
  • At the last close, the gross spread to the base offer is 10.7%. We would be buyers up to A$5.20 per share (implies 75% deal probability).

Third Point First Quarter 2022 Investor Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • The firm was founded in 1995 by Daniel S.
  • Loeb, who serves as Chief Executive Officer.
  • During the First Quarter, Third Point returned -11.5% in the flagship Offshore Fund.
  • The path to wringing out the excesses in the financial system will be bumpy and create clear winners and losers.

Aristotle Capital Management Large Cap Growth Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • For the first quarter of 2022, Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite posted a total return of -9.61% gross of fees.
  • We have also entered a period of increased geopolitical risks that will add to market volatility, according to Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap growth Composite.

Constellation Software ($CSU.TO, $CNSWF).

By MT Capital

  • Despite not dealing with celestial objects, the company itself is a grouping of vertical market software companies, of which are obtained based upon a set of rigid principles and quantitative standards that I will touch upon in later sections of this report.
  • In addition, I would argue that much like constellations (in the astronomical sense of the word) being associated with mythical figures, CSI is directly tied to one of the most elusive, mysterious and fascinating business personalities of our era, Mark Leonard, someone you can see if you look close enough in the night’s sky.  
  • Out of all of the publicly traded companies I have written about thus far, CSI stands out amongst the pack.

Aristotle Capital Management Focus Growth Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • For the first quarter of 2022, Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite posted a total return of -9.30% gross of fees.
  • In the near term, a recession seems unlikely with key economic indicators like the ISM Manufacturing Index pointing to an expanding economy.
  • The ISM manufacturing Index points to an growing economy.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Apple Inc, Appier Group Inc, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Delhivery, Coupang, Mindtree Ltd, Palantir Technologies Inc, Canon Inc, Hon Hai Precision Industry and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • AAPL and MSFT Support Breaks that Would Implode the US Cycle
  • Appier – Explosive US Growth
  • FB: “Planning to Slow the Pace of Our Investments” In the Metaverse.
  • Delhivery IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation
  • Coupang: Four Major Factors to Drive Higher Profit Margins in 2022
  • Aristotle Capital Management Global Equity 1Q 2022 Commentary
  • Mindtree-LTI: Merger Announced to Form India’s 5th Largest IT Services Player
  • Palantir 1Q22 Earnings: War Supposedly Good for Business?
  • Canon (7751) – Buyback Looks Small But Shareholder Structure Matters
  • Hon Hai (2317.TT): 1Q22 Preview/2Q22 Outlook- For 2022, It Could Be the Lowest Revenue in 2Q22.

AAPL and MSFT Support Breaks that Would Implode the US Cycle

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Apple and Microsoft are pressing on pivotal supports that would weigh on the US equity cycle after the April 26 red flag for defensives and resource stocks to sell off.
  • Mounting to break AAPL and MSFT key supports at 150 and 270 that would inflection the SPX cycle further given the SPX is flirting with a key break below 4,100/4,030.
  • AAPL and MSFT support breaks target AAPL 120 and MSFT 220.

Appier – Explosive US Growth

By Mio Kato

  • When we reviewed Appier’s 2021 results we rambled on about the US for about half of our note discussing explosive growth potential. 
  • We said that while Appier touted a >50% QoQ growth rate in the US we suspected it was actually closer to 100%. 
  • In 1Q it accelerated to >180% QoQ growth prompting the sell side to go all surprised Pikachu.

FB: “Planning to Slow the Pace of Our Investments” In the Metaverse.

By Investment Talk

  • Meta Platforms surprised investors in Q1 but not because the quarter was outstanding. Rather, it wasn’t as bad as some had assumed.
  • In an unusual turn of events, Zuckerberg’s earnings call appearance resulted in whispering sweet nothings into investors’ ears
  • However great that might be, the quarter provided no conclusive update on the loss of signal from Apple’s iOS updates, with management offering on-platform messaging/commerce as a potential sidestep

Delhivery IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Delhivery (1058656D IN) IPO will run from 11-13th May. The company plans to raise INR52.35bn (US$680m) through the issuance of a mix of new shares and OFS by existing shareholders.
  • At the indicative IPO price range of INR462-487 per share, Delhivery will have a market capitalisation of INR334.7-352.8bn and a post-money EV of INR294.8-312.9bn.
  • Delhivery plans to use the IPO proceeds for funding organic growth initiatives such as building scale and expanding network infrastructure as well as for funding inorganic growth.

Coupang: Four Major Factors to Drive Higher Profit Margins in 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • We have been Bearish on Coupang since 12 May 2021. Now we are turning Positive since we believe the valuations have become a lot more attractive. 
  • We highlight four major factors that could result in higher profit margins for Coupang in 2022 including competitors exiting early dawn service, lower COVID and EATS related costs. 
  • Our base case valuation of Coupang is implied market cap of $24.9 billion and target price of $14.1 per share, representing 32% upside from current levels.

Aristotle Capital Management Global Equity 1Q 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • For the first quarter of 2022, Aristotle Capital’s Global Equity Composite posted a total U.S.
  • dollar return of -9.19% gross of fees (-9.28% net of fees) The company is an independent/employee-owned investment management organization that specializes in equity and fixed income portfolio management.

Mindtree-LTI: Merger Announced to Form India’s 5th Largest IT Services Player

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA


Palantir 1Q22 Earnings: War Supposedly Good for Business?

By Aaron Gabin

  • Revenue growth ex-SPAC decelerated to 19% this quarter, 11% below consensus.
  • 1Q22 20% operating margins vs. consensus 27% margins as the company invests to reaccelerate growth in 2H from rising government contracts due to war.
  • Alex Karp warns that nuclear war in Ukraine is being dramatically underestimated.

Canon (7751) – Buyback Looks Small But Shareholder Structure Matters

By Travis Lundy

  • Canon Inc (7751 JP) on Monday announced a share buyback programme.
  • It isn’t very big. But it bears consideration because of other things going on. 
  • Shareholder structure is of much more importance than many investors appreciate. Here even more so.

Hon Hai (2317.TT): 1Q22 Preview/2Q22 Outlook- For 2022, It Could Be the Lowest Revenue in 2Q22.

By Patrick Liao

  • Hon Hai’s revenue was NT$1,408bn in 1Q22. We expect the OPM and EPS would be ~2.2% and ~NT$2.18 in 1Q22.
  • It’s a gradually increase for end-product shipment in 2021, but we think it might be followed by a slower season in 2Q22.
  • Hon Hai’s target is to address the profit in 2022. For 2022, we believe it could be the lowest revenue in 2Q22.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Mindtree Ltd, Tokyo Electron, Bitcoin, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Mindtree & L&T Infotech’s US$18bn Merger: Details and Index Implications
  • Tokyo Electron (8035) | Fundamentals Don’t Matter…for Now
  • Crypto Weekly – TerraUSD (UST)’s Depeg Leading to Crypto Capitulation?
  • Nasdaq 100 Bear Picture Refreshed

Mindtree & L&T Infotech’s US$18bn Merger: Details and Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


Tokyo Electron (8035) | Fundamentals Don’t Matter…for Now

By Mark Chadwick

  • Tokyo Electron reports FY3/22 results on 12 May. We expect the company to meet guidance and analyst expectations  
  • But the outlook may disappoint. Management may guide FY3/23 more conservatively than analysts who are looking for operating profit to grow 20% to ¥700 bn 
  • Despite favorable industry conditions and strong outlook for WFE, we think that the stock could continue to de-rate

Crypto Weekly – TerraUSD (UST)’s Depeg Leading to Crypto Capitulation?

By Josh Du

  • Crypto complex down double digits over the past week as yields climb beyond 3% and major asset classes all trade lower with heightened correlation. NFTs also down significantly. 
  • TerraUSD (UST CURNCY) has depegged from USD1 and is again potentially at risk for the dreaded death spiral coupled with Terra (LUNA CURNCY) 
  • As UST and LUNA have a combined market cap of around $40 billion, it could present systematic risk implications for crypto 

Nasdaq 100 Bear Picture Refreshed

By Shyam Devani

  • The Nasdaq 100 is approaching some supports around 12,200 which may hold on first attempt
  • However in the bigger picture they do not look particularly strong
  • Instead there is a danger that overall we continue to trend down towards the 11k area

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: SenseTime Group, JCET Group, Delhivery and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KOSPI200, KQ150, CSI300, STAR50, SET50, China A50, HSCI, SenseTime
  • JCET (600584.CH): 2022 Outlook Should Be Better than Fear
  • Delhivery IPO: Valuation Insights

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KOSPI200, KQ150, CSI300, STAR50, SET50, China A50, HSCI, SenseTime

By Brian Freitas


JCET (600584.CH): 2022 Outlook Should Be Better than Fear

By Patrick Liao

  • JCET reported revenue/GM RMB$8,138mn/10.7% in 1Q22, which grew 21.2% YoY and 0.5% QoQ.
  • We expect that its growth would continue and likely reach to revenue/GM for about RMB$8,234.5mn/10.8% in 2Q22.
  • Although the mainland China insists in the Zero Policy against COVID-19, the GDP growth was targeting at ~5.5% in 2022. 

Delhivery IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • Delhivery (1058656D IN) is the largest and fastest-growing 3PL express parcel delivery player in India. It will launch its Rs52.4 billion ($0.7 billion) IPO on 11 May.
  • In Delhivery IPO: Yet to Convincingly Deliver, we noted that the negatives outweigh the positives.  
  • In this note, we look at the valuation metrics. We think that Delhivery is at best fairly valued at the IPO price range. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Delhivery, AEM, Hoya Corp, Twitter Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Delhivery IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline
  • AEM: Increased FY22 Revenue Guidance; Riding on Intel’s Capex Binge into Multi-Year Ramp
  • Delhivery IPO – Thoughts on Valution, Touch-And-Go
  • Hoya – Getting Towards Genuinely Bullish Levels of Cheapness
  • Elon Gets a Boost From Friends For His Twitter Buyout—And Takes *Some* Of The Heat Off Himself

Delhivery IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Delhivery (1058656D IN) is looking at raising INR 52,350m (US$685m) in its IPO by selling up to 113.3m shares at a range of INR 462-487/share.
  • At the mid point of the IPO range, Delhivery (1058656D IN) will be valued at INR 344.8bn (US$4.5bn) while the free float market cap will be much lower.
  • Delhivery (1058656D IN) could get entry to the FTSE All-World Index at the December QIR, while inclusion in the MSCI India Index could take place at the May 2023 SAIR.

AEM: Increased FY22 Revenue Guidance; Riding on Intel’s Capex Binge into Multi-Year Ramp

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM reported strong 1Q22 results (+226% YoY) and raised its FY22 revenue guidance to 700-750M SGD. AEM management continues to believe they are in a multi-year ramp-up. 
  • While the US tech sector is imploding left and right AEM is a very specific story linked to Intel’s CAPEX binge. Expect momentum to remain in FY22 and into FY23.
  • Fair Value of 8 SGD remains unchanged (based on 20x 0.40 FY22 EPS), or 62% upside from the current 4.92 SGD share price.

Delhivery IPO – Thoughts on Valution, Touch-And-Go

By Sumeet Singh

  • Delhivery is now looking to raise around US$700m in its upcoming India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank
  • Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuation. 

Hoya – Getting Towards Genuinely Bullish Levels of Cheapness

By Mio Kato

  • Hoya’s 4Q beat slightly with revenue beating consensus by 2.2% and PBT beating by 7.0%. 
  • Those beats were better than peers such as Advantest and Lasertec and qualitative guidance suggests that YoY growth is likely driven by the Lifecare segment in particular. 
  • That contrasts with our negative outlook for peer momentum and we expect Hoya’s recent underperformance to reverse in short order.

Elon Gets a Boost From Friends For His Twitter Buyout—And Takes *Some* Of The Heat Off Himself

By Vicki Bryan

  • Elon Musk got 19 friendly investors to pledge $7.1 billion toward his buyout of Twitter
  • He also persuaded his bankers to slash his margin loan—as I projected…
  • In exchange for increasing his equity commitment. So still $20+ billion to go.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Delhivery, Keep Inc, Rheinmetall AG, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor, A10 Networks, Zepto, Cognizant Tech Solutions A and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Delhivery IPO – Peer Comparison, What It Gains in Growth It Gives up in Margins
  • Keep Pre-IPO – Market Leader in a Growing Market, However, Has Been on a Spending Spree
  • DAX Index: Quiddity Leaderboard for June 2022 (2.0): Rheinmetall Looks Interesting
  • Delhivery (RHD Updates): Unit Economics Have Taken a Beat
  • Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Preview- Further Price Increase Could Hold in 2H22
  • ATEN: Growing and Raising Estimates
  • Indian Quick Commerce Startup Nears Unicorn Status with $200m Round
  • Cognizant Technology Solutions

Delhivery IPO – Peer Comparison, What It Gains in Growth It Gives up in Margins

By Sumeet Singh

  • Delhivery is now looking to raise around US$700m in its upcoming India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.
  • Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison. 

Keep Pre-IPO – Market Leader in a Growing Market, However, Has Been on a Spending Spree

By Clarence Chu

  • Keep Inc (KEEP HK) is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Keep is an online fitness platform, offering online fitness content, smart fitness devices and fitness products. 
  • The firm aims to develop a closed-loop system where its offerings are complementary, thus servicing an individual’s entire fitness life cycle.

DAX Index: Quiddity Leaderboard for June 2022 (2.0): Rheinmetall Looks Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • DAX is a German blue-chip index that tracks the 40 largest companies listed on the Regulated Market of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. 
  • The DAX Index is reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September, and December. 
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential constituency changes for the June 2022 review. This is a follow-up insight to DAX Index: Quiddity Leaderboard for June 2022 

Delhivery (RHD Updates): Unit Economics Have Taken a Beat

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Delhivery (1058656D IN) is a fully integrated logistics player in India. The company’s application for a listing has been approved by the regulators.
  • The IPO will be open from 11-13th May and the company has downsized the IPO from INR7,460 crore to INR5,235 crores, with existing shareholders offloading shares worth of INR1,235 crores.
  • This insight focuses on new data points from the company’s Red Herring Document (RHD).

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Preview- Further Price Increase Could Hold in 2H22

By Patrick Liao

  • Vanguard’s revenue is NTD$13.49bn, which is falling at the high-end of guidance NTD$13.2~13.6 in 1Q22. 
  • Vanguard is likely to further raise price in 2Q22, and we expect revenue/GM could be NT$14.67bn/49.2% in 2Q22.
  • Further price increase could hold in 2H22 because 1) the smartphone growth expectation is reducing in 2Q22, and 2) the US Federal Reserve increased interest rate to control the inflation.

ATEN: Growing and Raising Estimates

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN continued to experience double-digit growth in the first quarter by reporting better than expected results. 
  • The security first approach ATEN has taken to its sales efforts started to show its advantages last year and has continued in 2022. 
  • The momentum from the first quarter is resulting in ATEN affirming revenue growth outlook towards the high end of the 10 percent to 12 percent range provided earlier 

Indian Quick Commerce Startup Nears Unicorn Status with $200m Round

By Tech in Asia

  • India’s quick commerce market is estimated to grow 15x by 2025 to hit a market size of nearly US$5.5 billion – large enough to propel prominent investors’ interest and gain the early-mover advantage.
  • One of the companies at the helm of this nascent yet flourishing industry is Zepto, a startup launched by two Stanford University dropouts, Aadit Palicha and Kaivalya Vohra.
  • The Y Combinator-backed startup promises 10-minute grocery deliveries, outpacing the delivery speeds of several ecommerce companies

Cognizant Technology Solutions

By Nirmal Bang

  • Margins affected by seasonality and labor crunch: In 1QFY22, operating margin came in at 15%, reflecting 20bps decline YoY.
  • Continued moderation in voluntary attrition: 1QCY22 voluntary attrition moderated a tad bit at 26% on an annualized basis or 29% on LTM basis.
  • Muted M&A action for now but not from a medium-term perspective: CTS has not reported any acquisition in this quarter and indicated about experiencing a little bit of bumpiness in M&A, with some deals falling out and, in some cases, it has stepped out of deals as it did not match with CTS’ strategy.

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Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Microstrategy Inc Cl A, LG Corp, Delhivery and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Microstrategy: More Losses For Bitcoin Spruiker
  • LG Corp: Updated SoTP Valuation & Key Catalyst of LG CNS IPO
  • Delhivery Pre-IPO – RHP Updates – Growth Remains Strong, Pricing Remains Under Pressure
  • Delhivery IPO: Yet to Convincingly Deliver

Microstrategy: More Losses For Bitcoin Spruiker

By David Blennerhassett

  • Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) reported a net loss of $155.6mn in the fourth quarter, compared to the net loss of $124.3mn in the 4Q21. 
  • MSTR took a non-cash digital asset impairment charge of $170.1mn in the first quarter, up from $146.6mn in the 4Q21. 
  • A bet on MSTR is a bet on bitcoin. Yet MSTR is down 37% YTD, compared to ~20% for bitcoin. 

LG Corp: Updated SoTP Valuation & Key Catalyst of LG CNS IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an updated SoTP valuation analysis of LG Corp (003550 KS) and discuss some of the key upcoming catalysts including the IPO of LG CNS.
  • Our base case valuation analysis of LG Corp suggests an implied price of 107,664 won per share, representing 45.5% upside from current levels.
  • The IPO of LG CNS is likely to be a positive catalyst in the next 6-12 months for LG Corp. 

Delhivery Pre-IPO – RHP Updates – Growth Remains Strong, Pricing Remains Under Pressure

By Sumeet Singh

  • Delhivery is now looking to raise around US$700m in its upcoming India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.
  • Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
  • In this note, we talk about the updates from its RHP.

Delhivery IPO: Yet to Convincingly Deliver

By Arun George

  • Delhivery is the largest and fastest-growing 3PL express parcel delivery player in India. It has cut its IPO raise from Rs74.6 billion ($1 billion) to Rs52.4 billion ($0.7 billion).
  • In Delhivery IPO Initiation: Can It Deliver?, we noted that the fundamentals are mixed as it has been unable to leverage strong growth to deliver profits or cash generation.  
  • In this note, we look at the RHP which discloses 9MFY22 results. We continue to believe the negatives outweigh the positives. We are inclined to give the IPO a pass.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma