TMT/Internet

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

• Tencent (700 HK) has emerged as a major contender to acquire about 40% stake in Kakao Mobility which operates Korea’ leading ride hailing app Kakao T. 
• Tencent’s investment stakes in the nine major Korean companies are worth 6.9 trillion won ($5.0 billion). Most of the investments are in the games and entertainment/K-Pop related sectors. 
• The VIG consortium has reportedly valued Kakao Mobility at about 6 trillion won ($4.4 billion).

• NVIDIA Corporation is a computing infrastructure company that provides graphics, computing, and networking solutions across the United States, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, and other in- ternational markets.
• The Company’s shares have been listed in the Nasdaq Composite stock market index since January 22, 1999, and are included among the companies with the highest market capitalization globally.
• Additionally, Nvidia’s shares are included in several national indices, such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ-100, and DJ Semiconductors. In May 2024, Nvidia Corporation announced a ten-for-one stock split.

• AMD snagged Sam Altman as a guest speaker and advocate for the company’s next generation MI450 accelerator product 
• Oracle announced their intention to create a zetascale AI cluster based on AMD’s MI355X GPUs
• Marvell announced its custom Ultra Accelerator Link (UALink) scale-up offering. Astera Labs will be next in line.

• Marvell AI event yesterday, good efforts to explain its Data Center / Accelerators roadmap, growth opportunity: ~50% Cagr to 2028, a bit higher than TSMC (45%), lower than AMD (60%). 
• CEO suggests that data center revenues can increase 4.4x to 2028, total revenue to ~triple to CY28. That’s possible but Marvell’s fragility is margins and lower scalability than AMD, Nvidia.  
• The nature of custom-designed ASICs is a lot of R&D for a single customer. Marvell GAAP margins are thin and therefore a binary bet on operating leverage.

• From 15th may to 17th June our Asia-ex-Japan Model Portfolio returned 3.37% vs MSCI Asia-ex-Japan’s 2.62%. Overweight on Korea and stock selection in HK/China, Taiwan and Philippines helped.
• Top 5 performers were Digiplus (+31.9%), SK Hynix (+27.1%), Hana Financials (+23.8%), Netease (+21%), CCB (+9.8%). The worst 5: Alibaba (-11.4%), BYD (-8.5%), Trip.Com (-7.4%), Titan (-7.2%), M&M (-5.1%).
• Our themes – tech investment momentum, Chinese consumption revival, cyclical recovery in India and dividend yield across the region – are working fine. We make no changes to our portfolio.

• BlackBerry’s fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 results demonstrate a combination of positive achievements and areas of uncertainty.
• The company posted total revenue of $141.7 million for the quarter, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance range.
• Specifically, revenues from the QNX and Secure Communications divisions also exceeded their respective expectations at $65.8 million and $67.3 million.

• In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, nCino, Inc. reported financial results that provide insights into both its strengths and areas for improvement.
• Total revenues reached $144.1 million, marking a 13% year-over-year increase.
• This growth was primarily driven by robust subscription revenues, which grew by 14% to $125.6 million.

• Integral Ad Science (IAS) presented a mixed but notably strong performance in their Q1 2025 financial results.
• The company displayed an impressive 17% growth in revenue to $134.1 million, surpassing their prior guidance.
• Growth was largely driven by a 24% increase in their optimization segment, buoyed by the financial services and retail verticals.

• FS.COM Limited (FS) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• FS presents a compelling growth story rooted in structural demand for enterprise-grade networking and a differentiated DTC model that delivers both scale and customer proximity.
• Its dominant SKU breadth, global Fortune 500 penetration, and aggressive shift toward high-performance solutions support sustained revenue expansion.

• Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) is looking to raise upto US$2.66bn via an equity combo of a 14m share selldown, which could raise around US$1.41bn and US$1.25bn five-year put-three convertible bonds.
• The company plans to use the proceeds to buy back Class B shares from Trip.com to lower Trip.com’s voting power in MakeMyTrip to 19.99%.
• In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

• Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
• Popular Strategies: Diagonal Spreads account for 27%of all strategies. This versatile strategy allows for many different profiles in terms of upfront premium (positive or negative), and time horizon.
• This Insight of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies.

• TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind
• TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging
• MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. 

• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) announced on June 9, 2025, its plan to split into two independent, publicly traded companies by mid-2026.

• Global Networks will be the entity that is spun-off. It will consist of legacy cable TV and digital networks, such as: CNN, TBS, TNT (including TNT Sports)…

• CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels will become CEO of this spun‑off entity.

• In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | US wants further export restrictions of high-end semiconductor technology to China • PostNL | opens up its APM network for FedEx for drop-offs and returns

• On May 14, 2025, Geechs Inc. (hereafter, “the Company”) announced its full-year FY2025/3 earnings results.
• Net sales rose 6% YoY to JPY 25,162 mn, EBITDA rose 73% YoY to JPY 625 mn, and operating profit rose 445% YoY to JPY 495 mn.
• The IT Human Resources Matching Business, Overseas (hereafter, “Overseas IT HRM Biz”) continued to face challenges owing to local market conditions, but the core IT Human Resources Matching Business, Japan (hereafter, “Japan IT HRM Biz”) expanded steadily and profitability continued to improve in the Seed Tech business.

• We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
• We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
• We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.

• Telcoware (078000 KS) and Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS) are two recent tender offers in Korea where the minority shareholders are demanding higher tender offer prices.
• The actual subscription rate of the Telcoware tender offer was only 10.44%, far below the 25.24% targeted by the CEO Keum Han-Tae.
• The Shinsung Tongsang owner family may acquire an additional 7–10% stake via this tender offer, though it remains unclear if they can secure full 95% ownership at this stage.

• In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.
• Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
• Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.

• Ascentech KK (3565 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Orix Corp (8591 JP) at JPY1,680, a 14.6% premium to the last close price.
• Despite the lack of an auction, the offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
• Minimum tendering is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio, with irrevocables representing a 27.81% ownership ratio. Management’s significant stakes aid in deal completion.

• On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
• It’s an OK price, not a great price. But while they are not calculated by advisors, at least the Target Board talks about the value of synergies to minorities.
• The price is light, but the combined irrevocables and large individual shareholders not brought over the wall get this over the line.

• Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP) has recommended a preconditional tender offer from NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) at JPY2,100, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.
• The offer is preconditional on several regulatory approvals, expected to commence in late August, and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
• Due to irrevocables from the controlling shareholder and key management, the required minority tendering rate is 11.2%. This low rate points to a done deal. 

• Ciena Corporation’s financial results for the fiscal second quarter of 2025 reflect robust performance and strategic positioning within the dynamic networking and telecommunications industry.
• The company reported revenue of $1.13 billion, marking alignment with the high end of their guidance, an indicator of successful strategy execution and market demand.
• This strong revenue performance is underscored by substantial growth in cloud provider revenue, which represented 38% of total revenue and grew by 85% year-over-year to over $400 million in the quarter.

• Intel layoffs now extending to production in US, Israel. Intel’s revenue/employee is half that of AMD, TSMC. An AMD or TSMC employee generates 2x more revenue than an Intel employee. 
• Intel shareloss in PC, Server continues. Over the past 4 years Intel lost 6 percentage points PC market share (down to 76%), 13 percentage points in server (down to 73%).   
• Intel is now without an AI / GPU roadmap. It looks bad but the twist is it helps Intel requalify with Nvidia DGX, replacing AMD. Weakness breeds strength.   

• Keysight Technologies reported its fiscal second quarter 2025 earnings, highlighting several key aspects that investors may find noteworthy.
• The company delivered a robust performance, with revenues at $1.3 billion and earnings per share of $1.70, both exceeding the high-end of guidance.
• This performance marks continued revenue growth, driven by strong demand in the Communications Solutions Group (CSG) and a return to growth in the Electronics Industrial Solutions Group (EISG).

• ReadCloud Limited (ASX:RCL) services the education sector through the provision of digital learning content, proprietary interactive technology, and support for students and educators.
• The company has released its H1 FY25 interim result (September year-end), illustrating a continuation of strong momentum in the core schools-focussed businesses.
• Group sales and fee revenue grew 13% to $9.2m, underlying EBITDA strengthened 73% to $1.8m, with strong cash conversion delivering operating cash flow of $1.9m for the half, leaving the company with $3.5m cash and no debt at period end.

• Samsara Inc. reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, showing notable performance in various aspects of its business.
• The company achieved a strong start to the fiscal year, surpassing $1.5 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), reaching $1.54 billion by the end of the quarter.
• This represented a 31% year-over-year growth, adjusting for constant currency.

• Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
• Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
• Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.

• TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
• ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) launched its IPO, while Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) has been pre-marketing.
• On the placements front, there were a number of large deals acros the region, along with some large lockup expiries.

• BILL Holdings shares have materially underperformed year-to-date and fell ~51%. Shares saw selling pressure post 2QFY25 earnings as results indicated weak outlook.
• I see limited room for downside given current valuation of ~3x 2025E EV/Revenue (with ~13% growth) and recent acquisition of AvidXchange at a higher multiple.
• I believe BILL’s current attractive valuation levels can be viewed as opportunity to unwind bearish positions and valuation looks more reasonable vs. peers, especially AvidXchange.

• We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
• Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.
• Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.

• 2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  
• 2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
• Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.
• TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.
• There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.

• Warner Music Group (WMG) reported its fiscal second-quarter results for the period ended March 31, 2025.
• The company’s financial performance during this period was relatively stable, although it faced a variety of challenges impacting growth.
• Total revenue increased by a modest 1%, with Recorded Music revenue also growing by 1% and Music Publishing revenue by 3%.

• There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
• There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US). Broadcom (AVGO US) will have largest outflows.

• Baidu, Inc. delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, with its Baidu Core division reporting a 7% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching RMB 25.5 billion.
• This growth was primarily driven by a substantial surge in its AI cloud business, which saw a 42% increase year-over-year, contributing significantly to Baidu Core’s overall revenue.
• A notable development within this business unit is the expansion of the AI cloud’s role in Baidu’s operations, now accounting for 26% of Baidu Core’s revenue, up from 20% in the previous year.

• iQIYI’s first-quarter 2025 results exhibited growth across several key business segments, though certain challenges remain.
• The company experienced sequential growth in total revenues, largely attributed to their emphasis on premium content production and strong performance in long-form and micro-dramas.
• This focus has effectively positioned iQIYI as a leading platform for both long-form and short-form entertainment content, contributing positively to user engagement and content consumption.

• The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
• There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebalance event.
• We expect a one-way flow of US$700mn for June 2025.

• Palantir Technologies has become one of Wall Street’s most polarizing success stories in 2025.
• Riding a 76% year-to-date gain and clocking in at more than 460% over the past 12 months, the company’s stock has reached new highs, closing at a record for three consecutive sessions earlier this month.
• The surge puts it in league with speculative darlings like CoreWeave and even evokes comparisons to meme stock veterans such as GameStop.

• Onto Innovation’s latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture of record revenue growth alongside operational challenges stemming from external factors like tariffs and evolving market demands.
• The company reported $267 million in revenue, marking a record quarter driven primarily by expansions in advanced nodes and advanced packaging sectors.
• This growth reflects robust market demand, particularly associated with AI compute engines and cloud infrastructure investments.

• NetApp reported record revenue for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, showcasing strong growth in the all flash storage market and first-party and marketplace storage services.
• The company achieved all-time highs in gross profit, operating profit, operating margin, and earnings per share (EPS), which indicates a robust financial performance and a potential strong position in the evolving enterprise AI market.
• A critical component of NetApp’s growth strategy is focusing on AI-powered infrastructure, with all-flash systems and public cloud services contributing to over two-thirds of the total revenue.

• Qualys, a leading provider of cybersecurity solutions, presented a mixed financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, highlighted by certain growth indicators alongside pronounced macroeconomic challenges.
• Total revenue for the quarter increased by 10% year-over-year to $159.9 million, surpassing initial expectations.
• This growth was notably fueled by robust performance of the channel sales, which accounted for 49% of total revenues, reflecting a 19% increase in channel-related revenue compared to a 2% growth in direct revenue.

• C3.ai has demonstrated dynamic progress and significant strides in its fiscal year ending April 30, 2025, highlighted by impressive growth metrics and strategic advancements.
• The company reported a 25% year-over year revenue increase, reaching $389.1 million, marking three consecutive years of accelerating revenue growth.
• This upward trajectory underscores the company’s effective strategies in the expansive Enterprise AI market.

• Dell Technologies Inc.’s fiscal year 2026 first quarter financial results provide a mixed but generally positive view of the company’s current performance and future prospects.
• The company reported revenue of $23.4 billion, a growth of 5% year-over-year.
• This increase was driven by robust performance across its core markets, particularly in Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) and Client Solutions Group (CSG), each growing by 8%.

• AMD launched MI300-355. AMD claims that for training MI355 is on par with Nvidia’s B200. For inference MI355 generates more token per $, has a better TCO. MI350 shipped May-25
• AI addressable market: AMD maintains its $500bn by 2028 estimate, 60% Cagr “or exceeding that”. Inference will grow faster, over 80% Cagr.
• AMD stock is cheap, has bottomed out, the roadmap is more competitive, etc. For investors looking for an alternative to Nvidia and TSMC, AMD is the best alternative imo.

• Tencent has been interested in acquiring Nexon for more than six years. However, the timing and price were not right for such a deal to take place in the past.
• The higher probability scenario is for Kim’s family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a $15 billion could be the right price. 
• Late founder Kim’s family members own a 44.4% stake in Nexon through NXC Corp and its affiliate NXMB BV. Kim’s wife and daughters own a 67.6% stake in NXC Corp. 

• DRAM — Global Memory Market Has Regained Momentum in Mid-2025, Driven by a Sharp Upswing in Spot Prices.
• NAND Flash — Strategic Outsourcing, High ASP Segments Drive Memory Controller Specialist Gains
• Conclusion — Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Growth in Memory Markets

• In this edition: • KPN | more behind the VodafoneZiggo / Delta Fiber access deal than meets the eye?
• • Odido | IPO expected to be postponed until after the summer • Triodos Bank | intends to focus more on the Netherlands

• Government aims to sell 30.6% NXC stake by 2027 for ₩4T tax revenue, offering NXC a buyback or selling with management control to attract bidders.
• The family won’t buy back the 30.6% stake but may allow partial management rights, with Tencent eyeing that stake—not a full $15B Nexon buyout as Bloomberg suggested.
• Tencent’s targeting that stake chunk only, no control shift, so no mandatory tender offer triggered—at least for now.

• The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
• In this insight, we take a look at potential index changes and capping flows for HSIII index rebal event in September 2025.
• Based on the latest data, we see three ADDs and three DELs and one significant float percentage revision.

• Qualcomm’s recently rumoured desire to acquire UK-listed Alphawave finally came to fruition on June 9 with a US$2.4 billion offer
• Just two days earlier, on June 7, Alphawave announced that the company had disposed of its interest in China-based JV, WiseWave Technology
• What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?

• TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
• Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
• We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally

• In today’s edition: • ABN Amro | restructuring within Corporate Banking • BE Semiconductor Industries | increases long-term financial targets • Heineken | intends to invest USD 2.75bn in Mexico until 2028 • KPN | VodafoneZiggo secures access to part of Delta Fiber’s network • KPN | CEO denounces ‘populistic discussion’ on high broadband tariffs • InPost | court dismisses motion for injunction against Yodel • DHL | CMA to start DHL/EVRi merger inquiry

Team Internet’s 10-year deal to run the .co top-level domain (TLD) enhances the growth prospects for Domains, Identity and Software (DIS), the group’s highest-quality division in terms of revenue diversity and visibility. Growth prospects may strengthen with ICANN’s planned new Generic Top-Level Domains (gTLD) Program, scheduled for 2026. This is welcome news at a time when visibility for Search is low. Our estimates are unchanged, but we see upside potential to our 55p/share sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for DIS as prospects strengthen, and believe that the current valuation factors in modest prospects for DIS and Comparison and no value for Search.

Datatec reported strong growth in gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, underlying EPS (uEPS) and cash generation in FY25. Restructuring in prior years has improved the operational efficiency of each division and the supply chain has normalised, allowing customer demand to be met on a timely basis. As digital transformation specialists, the group continues to benefit from strong demand for cybersecurity solutions, hybrid infrastructure and cloud-based solutions, and expects the growing adoption of AI to prompt enterprises to upgrade their IT infrastructure. Increasing confidence in the group’s ability to generate cash supports the ongoing share buyback programme and raised dividend payout target. We have upgraded our FY26 and FY27 estimates to reflect better performance, which in turn lifts our valuation.

• Nippo produced record earnings in FY24, with OP of ¥1,970mil (+2.7% YoY) on sales of ¥44,890mil (+7.1% YoY).
• Thanks primarily to solid growth in order for print circuit boards [PCBs] used in generative AI servers and wafer polishing jigs manufactured in Nippo’s Okinawa factory, sales landed above the firm’s guidance of ¥42,000mil.
• FY25 is the final year of Nippo’s medium-term plan [MTP] which calls for an OP target of ¥2,000mil.

• Sundae Bar (SBAR.L), a Company creating a marketplace for AI Agents, announced its Admission to AIM.
• The Company raised gross proceeds of £2,000,000 at the price of 8 pence per share.
• The sundae_bar platform is intended to streamline the AI ecosystem by creating a unified marketplace; seamlessly connecting AI agents with businesses and individuals. 

• Cumulative Q3 FY07/25 revenue was JPY18.7bn (+14.2% YoY), operating profit JPY4.0bn (+6.5% YoY), net income JPY2.9bn (+11.5% YoY).
• Consumer Service segment revenue reached JPY16.8bn (+18.2% YoY), with a segment profit of JPY3.9bn (+11.3% YoY).
• Online Advertising segment revenue was JPY1.8bn (-13.3% YoY), segment profit JPY121mn (-61.7% YoY), with promotion costs JPY319mn (-14.7% YoY).

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. It’s back again to raise another US$600m via a placement.
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes… we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%….
• Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
• Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.

• Kumamoto 2nd Fab delayed because of bad traffic? Sure, bad traffic, but legacy Fab utilization is 70%, who needs additional capacity now and in 2026? Legacy demand remains weak. 
• Arizona construction is accelerating, highlighting the dichotomy that I’ve been mentioning : demand for AI / Data Center is booming, demand for Legacy (specially auto & industrial) remains weak. 
• 2nm yield reached 90%. True, but that’s the yield of SRAM test cell. This is not a production yield. SRAM is a very small cell used to qualify volume ramp. 

• Nippo produced record earnings in FY24, with OP of ¥1,970mil (+2.7% YoY) on sales of ¥44,890mil (+7.1% YoY).
• Thanks primarily to solid growth in order for print circuit boards [PCBs] used in generative AI servers and wafer polishing jigs manufactured in Nippo’s Okinawa factory, sales landed above the firm’s guidance of ¥42,000mil.
• FY25 is the final year of Nippo’s medium-term plan [MTP] which calls for an OP target of ¥2,000mil.

• There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  
• In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.
• Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.

• Product authentication and legitimacy are paramount for The RealReal (NASDAQ: REAL), which sells used luxury items.
• But our research indicates that REAL’s authentication lets through many counterfeits, and that has enraged both buyers and sellers, undermining the sense of trust.
• REAL has applied AI to the authentication problem to speed things up, but we see no evidence of effectiveness.

• The offer provides a 2.7% gross spread with a 7.7% annualized return, supported by board approval, firm structure, and high market-implied probability of success near 92%.
• Downside risk is significant if the deal breaks, but the structured offer, regulatory clarity, and low interloper risk support a small-to-moderate position in diversified event-driven portfolios.
• Further upside depends on unexpected bid competition, ticking fees, or faster-than-expected settlement; otherwise, the return is modest but acceptable in stable arbitrage environments.

• Cumulative Q3 FY07/25 revenue was JPY18.7bn (+14.2% YoY), operating profit JPY4.0bn (+6.5% YoY), net income JPY2.9bn (+11.5% YoY).
• Consumer Service segment revenue reached JPY16.8bn (+18.2% YoY), with a segment profit of JPY3.9bn (+11.3% YoY).
• Online Advertising segment revenue was JPY1.8bn (-13.3% YoY), segment profit JPY121mn (-61.7% YoY), with promotion costs JPY319mn (-14.7% YoY).

Frontier Developments’ shares reacted strongly to the May update announcing that FY25 revenues would be slightly ahead of consensus expectations of £85–89m. Today’s FY25 update builds on this, adding a growing cash position and confidence in ‘further annual growth in FY26’. All eyes will be on the 21 October launch of Jurassic World Evolution 3, with the franchise’s very modest 4% y-o-y revenue decline in FY25 illustrating the strength of the title.

• In today’s edition: • KPN | ODF scales back fiber ambitions • InPost / Allegro | antitrust office starts investigation regarding Allegro’s delivery methods • DHL | Evri plans to increase its number of couriers by 5,000

• Qualcomm acquired Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. 
• AMD acquired 3 firms. Untether AI, an AI edge / inference chip designer. Brium, an AI software and compiler firm. Enosemi, a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm. 
• 4 acquisitions in 2 weeks. AMD and Qualcomm are putting their money where their mouth is: the future is AI. This also illustrates how far ahead Nvidia is.

• TSMC is on its way to beat its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 72% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 43% YoY, Consensus at 26% (NT$). Upgrade coming? 
• UMC is on its way to miss its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 63% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 4% YoY . No recovery in legacy semiconductor. 
• This confirms, again, that AI is the only growing segment in semiconductors. The rest is lackluster (computers, smartphone, automotive, industrial, you name it).

GB Group’s CEO Dev Dhiman’s first full year has seen initiatives addressing the company’s foundations rather than its short-term growth. This is a necessary step if management are to optimise longer-term shareholder value. Accordingly, any share price disappointment regarding H225 and H126 growth rates needs to be set against the group’s increasing optionality around capital allocation and the reassurance of an unchanged FY26 financial outlook.

• With only a partial contribution from recently acquired mortgage brokerage company, GTG Financial, and before peak homebuying season had begun, 1Q25 revenue reached $925.6k vs $20.4k in 1Q24.
• As competition intensifies during the peak homebuying spring-summer season, we expect the company to record further revenue ramp as homebuying activity climbs.
• We also believe the GTG acquisition underscores AIRE’s focus on offering mortgage brokerage, title and home insurance services, which are also expected to lead to recurring revenue opportunities & potentially help smooth out the seasonality of homebuying trends.

• Long-term readers will know I have held Telefonica Brasil (Vivo) for four years and been loudly bullish on the company at times.
• But the thesis hasn’t played out as hoped and the time has come to make way for better opportunities.
• It’s the good type of mistake, where you scrape away with a modest gain (20% + some nice dividends), but an analytical error all the same.

• According to the WSJ, Ukraine’s drone strike on June 1 damaged as many as 40 aircraft deep inside Russia as strategic bombers sat outside in the open on military bases.
• Ukraine was able to secretly place numerous cheap drones near Russian military installations all over the massive country.
• The order was then given, and the drones were flown out of trucks and remotely piloted directly into exposed expensive bombers.

• Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) raised around US$800m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO, after pricing its IPO in the middle of its range. Its IPO linked lockup will expire soon.
• Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers.
• In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

• Revenue increased by 6.7% YoY to JPY12.8bn, with all business segments posting profit growth despite some challenges.
• The company posted an operating loss of JPY22mn, significantly better than the forecasted JPY236mn loss for 1H.
• Recurring profit was JPY481mn, with a foreign exchange loss of JPY434mn due to yen appreciation against the USD.

• Holding companies have been the best performing asset class in the Korean stock market in the past month.
• In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of the top five, largest “pure” holdcos in Korea including SK Square, SK Inc, LG Corp, Hanjin KAL, and HD Hyundai.
• The NAVs of these five holdcos are about 18% higher than their current prices on average. 

• AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation
• AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore
• Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who’s next?

• Six months and counting; yet China Mobile (941 HK) continues to (slowly, but surely) chip away at various pre-conditions. 
• In its monthly update, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) said Mobile has proposed commitments to Hong Kong’s Communication Authority,  and that the commitments are sufficient to effectively address the CA’s concerns. 
• The CA is seeking industry feedback by the 13th June, but a favourable conclusion appears a lock. Elsewhere, no update on I-Squared’s proposal. 

• Circle Internet Group (CRCL US) is forecasted to be added to both US TMI and R1000 at the September 2025 review. 
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL US) is forecasted to be added to Global Standard at the November 2025 review and to Global All-World at the December 2025 review.
• A significant upweight is anticipated at the March 2026 review in R1000 and Global All-World following the lock-up expiry.

• Zegona Communications (ZEG LN) owns 100% of Vodafone Spain and is a pure-play turnaround and M&A optionality vehicle in a consolidating European telecom market.
• Telefónica and MasOrange are reportedly considering a bid, with potential upside of 25–83% depending on deal terms and valuation multiples.
• Even without a sale, fibre JV monetization and cost-cutting support a standalone re-rating over the next 12–18 months.

• MongoDB, Inc., a leading document-oriented database platform provider, has reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
• This quarter, MongoDB announced revenues of $549 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase that surpassed expectations.
• The revenue growth was significantly driven by Atlas, its cloud-based database service, which saw a 26% rise and accounted for 72% of the total revenue.

• XtalPi Holdings (2228 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 13th Jun 2024 after raising US$126m. Its one-year lockup will expire soon.
• QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
• In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

• How many times can Apple management say “delightful” when they have nothing to say? WWDC25 highlighted a bunch of small software tweaks, mostly “new designs” and nothing on AI. 
• The air pocket continues: very low growth in hardware categories, potentially large negative consequence of the Epic lawsuit, no AI roadmap.   
• Consensus expects revenue growth for FY26 and that’s very questionable. The stock trades at 28x FY25 EPS, 26x FY26 with the only driver being share buybacks. Avoid!

• Global Chip Sales Tick Higher in April, 2026 Growth Forecast Robust — WSTS Forecast Signals Sustained Semiconductor Growth Through 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainty
• National Taiwan University Semiconductor Forum Highlights — Edge AI and Robotics The Next Major Demand Catalyst… AI Still in Its Early Phase
• Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review — Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook

• Rubrik reported a solid 1QFY26. There were plenty of positives, including revenue upside, competitive wins and increased FY26 revenue guidance.  
• I maintain a bullish view on the data security company and a pioneer in cyber resilience. Management sees a huge opportunity in securing identity.
• Rubrik added 135 customers with subscription ARR ˃$100K to total 2,381, +28% y/y, and the subscription net retention rate remains ˃120%.