
In today’s briefing:
- Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.
- Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?
- GE Vernova tries to shake its parent’s problems
- MNTN, Inc. IPO Valuation Analysis: Growth Accelerated in 1Q’25, Attractive Valuation Vs. Peers
- [ETP 2025/20] WTI Skittish on Trade Hopes and Oversupply Fears; Henry Hub Falls on Tepid Demand
- Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc: Cost Savings and Mix Improvement Drive Outperformance…
- MIRA: Breakthroughs Continue as Financial Results Released
- Nauticus Robotics, Inc: 1Q25 Review; Customer Conversations Changing To “How Soon” From “What If”
- Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc: While Disappointing, 1Q25 May Be the Low Point for the Year
- Spruce Power Holding Corporation: 1Q25 Results; Operating EBITDA Up 15% Y/Y with SP5

Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.
- Typical Intel? 18A node was going to be a great success with customers lining up. CFO now says that revenues from external customers is “not significant”, limited to packaging only.
- Intel CFO toned expectation of significant external 18A revenues by 2027: some revenues with UMC, Tower, some packaging, some older gen Intel16 “not a ton has to come from 18A”.
- Clear admission that Intel Foundry won’t be ready for external clients before 14A in 2028 due to lack of design tools (PDK). All that is good for TSMC.
Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?
- Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a “democratization of innovation between Technology Development & High Volume Manufacturing
- This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it’s a seismic shift at a critical juncture
- If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that’s not what what we see happening.
GE Vernova tries to shake its parent’s problems
- GE’s old headquarters in Schenectady, NY has been a significant part of the company’s history, but has seen a decline in recent years
- GE Vernova, a spinoff of General Electric, has seen success in the electrification business and is capitalizing on the surge in demand for energy
- GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik, a longtime company man, is confident about the company’s future and sees it as just the beginning of an investment super cycle
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MNTN, Inc. IPO Valuation Analysis: Growth Accelerated in 1Q’25, Attractive Valuation Vs. Peers
- MNTN, Inc., a fast-growing advertising software company, has announced the initial price range for its upcoming US IPO.
- The offering is expected to be between $14.00 and $16.00 per share, implying a market cap of ~$1.4B on a fully-diluted basis at the midpoint of price range.
- BlackRock has indicated a non-binding interest in purchasing up to $30M worth of MNTN shares at the IPO price. The price range is seen as attractively valued, in my view.
[ETP 2025/20] WTI Skittish on Trade Hopes and Oversupply Fears; Henry Hub Falls on Tepid Demand
- For the week ending 09/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 3.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2m barrel fall). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell.
- The EIA reported a 110 Bcf storage build, slightly lower than the 111 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 2.6% above the five-year average.
- Saudi Aramco’s Q1 profit fell 4.8% YoY but beat estimates by 2.8%. Morgan Stanley downgraded BP to Underweight from Equalweight, while HSBC lowered Chevron to Hold from Buy.
Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc: Cost Savings and Mix Improvement Drive Outperformance…
- HYFM is a leading manufacturer and distributor of branded hydroponics equipment and supplies for controlled environment agriculture (CEA).
- The company’s products consist primarily of consumable products, such as nutrients and plant growth media, grow lights, climate control solutions, rolling racks/benches, and various other equipment and supplies.
- 1Q25 results modestly exceeded our expectations. Quarterly revenue of $40.5 million was slightly below our $41.7 million estimate, driven by greater-than-expected volume declines, only partially offset by a less-than-expected decline in prices.
MIRA: Breakthroughs Continue as Financial Results Released
- MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report
Nauticus Robotics, Inc: 1Q25 Review; Customer Conversations Changing To “How Soon” From “What If”
- KITT reported 1Q25 results that reflect the muted seasonality of a typical 1Q in the marine space.
- Revenue was $165k, down from $464k in the year-ago period, and FCF excluding M&A was ($6.7) million, in line with 1Q24.
- The company sold 7.5 million shares in the quarter for net proceeds of $19.4 million and ended 1Q with ~$10.1 million in cash.
Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc: While Disappointing, 1Q25 May Be the Low Point for the Year
- Tough start to the year. RYAM reported 1Q25 results that included revenue of $356 million (down 8% Y/Y and below our $363 million estimate) and EBITDA of $17 million (well below the year-ago result of $52 million and our $48 million estimate).
- A non-cash environmental charge of $12 million and an FX hit of ($5) million, combined with weather, higher maintenance-related operating costs, and lower volumes, more than offset modestly higher prices in Cellulose Specialties and Cellulose Commodities and benefits from prior cost reduction efforts.
- New reporting structure highlights progress toward specialty. RYAM changed the way it reports results of its High Purity Cellulose division, splitting the division into three segments beginning in 1Q25 (Cellulose Specialties [CS], Cellulose Commodities [CC], and Biomaterials), highlighting the profitable nature of its CS (23% EBITDA margin in 1Q25) and Biomaterials (29% EBITDA margin in 1Q25) businesses and continuing deemphasis of CC sales.
Spruce Power Holding Corporation: 1Q25 Results; Operating EBITDA Up 15% Y/Y with SP5
- CEO Chris Hayes hosted SPRU’s 1Q25 results call. Spruce Power is a leading owner-operator of residential solar power purchase agreements (PPAs) and solar lease agreements (SLAs).
- Spruce grows through the acquisition of mature portfolios.
- Spruce now owns the cash flows from ~85,000 home solar assets and contracts, up from 21k in 2018.