United States

• Intel reported Q125 revenues of $12.7 billion, down 0.4% YoY, down 11% QoQ but still $500 million above the guided midpoint, precisely the same beat as in the prior quarter.
• Looking ahead, Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, this time extending the range from $1 billion in the prior quarter to $1.2 billion
• LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many senior executives the door. That’s good.

• AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to replace Discover Financial Services (DFS US) in S&P500 on 19 May following Capital One’s approved acquisition.
• CRH (CRH US) and Coinbase Global (COIN US) are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of Kellogg Co (K US) and Ansys Inc (ANSS US). 
• Zero changes are forecasted for S&P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.

• China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
• COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.
• Positive Q1 FY25 results from Southern Copper (SCCO US), First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)‘s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.

• Intuitive Surgical Inc.’s recent earnings reveal a mixed performance with both strengths and challenges.
• Positively, the company reported strong operational outcomes in the first quarter of 2025.
• Da Vinci procedures saw a substantial 17% growth, driven predominantly by robust performances in general surgery across the US and certain international markets, such as India and Korea.

• Steel Dynamics, Inc. delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating the company’s operational and financial stability amidst a challenging market environment.
• The company reported a net income of $217 million or $1.44 per diluted share, supported by adjusted EBITDA of $448 million.
• Total revenue rose to $4.4 billion, showing a 13% increase from the previous quarter, largely due to record steel shipments.

• Alcoa Corporation reported a strong first quarter for 2025, highlighted by improved safety performance and stable production across most operations.
• The company maintained a commitment to operational excellence, focusing on safety, stability, and continuous improvement amid positive market conditions.
• A key development was the improvement at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, which is now operating at 91% capacity.

• CSX Corporation’s latest earnings provided a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities facing the company in the first quarter of 2025.
• CSX’s total revenue for the quarter stood at $3.4 billion, a 7% decline from the previous year.
• This downturn was attributed to several factors, including lower benchmark coal prices and reduced fuel surcharge revenues.

• Danaher Corporation reported its first quarter of 2025 financial results, surpassing expectations in revenue, earnings, and cash flow.
• The company benefited from robust performance in bioprocessing and a spike in respiratory demand at its subsidiary, Cepheid.
• Utilization of the Danaher Business System (DBS) enabled the company to drive innovation, market share gains, and efficiency.

• D.R. Horton, Inc. recently reported its second quarter fiscal 2025 results, highlighting both challenges and achievements within a dynamic market environment.
• The company’s earnings per diluted share were $2.58, down from $3.52 a year ago, with consolidated pretax income reaching $1.1 billion on revenues of $7.7 billion.
• The gross profit margin on home sales for the quarter stood at 21.8%, reflecting the company’s disciplined approach amid market fluctuations.

• EToro Group Ltd., a social investment network and trading-app provider, plans to raise up to $400M in upcoming US IPO.
• Israeli social trading platform was valued at ~$10B during a planned merger with a publicly-listed SPAC in 2022. However, the SPAC deal collapsed.  
• EToro launched copy trading services in 2010 and made a big bet on crypto segment. Revenue from cryptoassets accounted for ~96% of total revenue and income in 2024.

• EQT Corporation delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2025, emphasizing its strategic approach to maximizing value amid price volatility.
• The company reported robust production at the high end of its guidance, aided by effective well performance and minimal winter disruptions.
• Tactics like increasing production during highdemand winter periods allowed EQT to benefit from favorable Appalachian pricing, significantly boosting its core differential.

• General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s earnings presentation for the first quarter of 2025 presents a mixed picture of financial performance, strategic advancements, and ongoing challenges.
• The company delivered a robust financial outcome, with orders up 12% and revenue growing by 11%, primarily driven by strong demand in both services and equipment segments.
• Profits surged by 38% to $2.1 billion, pushing the margins to 23.8%.

• Baker Hughes Company delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.04 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year increase.
• The performance was driven primarily by the Industrial & Energy Technology (IET) segment, which experienced significant growth and contributed to the company’s overall margin expansion.
• Revenues for the quarter hit a record, supported by effective operational execution and strategic transformations, despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties, and fluctuating oil prices.

• Chip design has long been a paradoxical craft.
• On one hand, engineers must trust sophisticated software to help them craft circuits of mind-boggling complexity; on the other, they maintain a healthy skepticism, knowing a single flaw can doom a chip.
• The old mantra “trust, but verify” could well have been coined for this process.

• U.S. oil producers need prices between USD 61-70 per barrel to maintain profitability. With prices around USD 60 per barrel, drilling activity is likely to decrease.
• Rising tariffs and trade uncertainty are increasing oilfield equipment costs and threatening production growth in the United States.
• While Saudi Arabia faces fiscal pressures and OPEC supply constraints, Petrobras benefits from low breakeven costs, no OPEC restrictions, and strong investment.

• On an FX adjusted basis, Alphabet increased its revenue by 14% in 1Q’25 (~200 bps headwind from FX).
• For the 11th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.
• Just when regulators are lambasting Google for their network business in court, it keeps dwindling to oblivion.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sands China, SK Hynix
• The rebound in US equity continued overnight, amid bets the Fed could cut rates sooner than anticipated to prevent a recession. The S&P 500 rallied by 2%, while US treasuries rallied 7-9 bps across the curve.
• Some 5 bps of additional Fed cuts were priced in for 2025 after comments by Fed officials. Gold climbed 1.7%, continuing its strong rally YTD.

• Crude prices plunged to multi-year lows amid rising global supply and trade tensions, stoking demand fears and slowing U.S. shale activity.
• Oilfield services firms are underperforming peers as falling rig counts and steel tariffs drive up costs and erode margins.
• With fixed-cost-heavy models and fewer upstream clients, the sector faces amplified downside risks and limited pricing power in the near term.

• RSS-4 prices near stable around INR 198/kg for past ten days  
• Kerala farmers engaged in rainguarding in right earnest  
• RRII devises process for extracting top-quality rubber from skim latex  

• We are lowering our FY25 projections and price target for Vince Holding ahead of the company reporting 4QFY24 (January) results next Friday.
• While we love the company’s product direction, material returns from further expansion in men’s and accessories, ability to open new stores in key domestic and international arenas and the potential to add more wholesale relationships, and believe new management, under CEO Brendan Hoffman, is highly motivated to expand the brand and reach of Vince, we believe the company, with 79% of goods purchased from China in FY23, will be materially impacted in the near term by the current tariff regime, especially as they pivot in FY25.
• As such, we believe the material turn in earnings we previously projected will now be shifted into FY26, and we are lowering our FY25 EPS from $0.55 to a loss per share of $0.08 and cutting our VNCE price target to $4 (from $6).

• The everlasting circus of US politics continues, and at this point, it almost seems like Bessent has effectively taken over the presidency—at least when it comes to pushing through the most critical U-turns in Trump’s policy decisions.
• When we loop back over the major U-turns of the past couple of months, the most influential reversals all appear to have been driven by Bessent (and, to an extent, Lutnick)
• What exactly is going on inside the Trump camp? It’s painfully obvious that they are not aligned on the public message, and to add fuel to the fire, Trump is now back attacking Zelensky once again.

• For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
• Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
• Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.

• Demand for Auto & Industrial Semis was weak in 2024, Semi inventories remain high. But TXN beats 1Q guidance handsomely, 2Q is above expectations. TXN is back to YoY growth.
• Critically, the Industrial market is recovering rapidly, Auto is back to modest growth. Management has some concerns that there could be re-stocking ahead of US import tariffs. 
• Consensus is too low but the stock is not cheap, has deflated from bubble levels but still not cheap.

• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) revenue grew 19% YoY to $2.3B in 1Q25.  Procedures volume grew ~17% YoY, which boosted instruments and accessories revenue.
• The company placed 367 da Vinci surgical systems, compared with 313 in 1Q24. It included 147 da Vinci 5 systems, compared with 8 in the same period last year.
• Intuitive has raised the procedure growth guidance range from 13–15% to 15–17%, while trimming down gross margin to the range 65–66.5% from 67–68%, due to tariffs.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $6 price target for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.
• We believe the company has continued to drive strong in-store results with impressive product offerings, continued expansion of the color palette, a deepening commitment to the men’s arena (and accessories), a focus on key tops and providing seasonal twists to key items such as sweaters and dresses.
• Further, Vince continues to focus on full price selling, maintaining discipline during key events in terms of overall price cuts, which we believe will help overall returns.

• 1Q better than guided, 2Q a bit better but margins and net income remain very low. Reiteration that 1Q25 is the trough. Mngt mentions concerns about “the macro” and “tariffs”.
• CEO emphasizes “it won’t be easy” to fix products, manufacturing, culture. Re-org is coming but no details. Lower Opex but “we have not yet identified what that means for headcount”.
• Consensus continues to expect a swift runaround into 2026. Based on this optimistic forecast, the stock trades at 18x 2026 EPS. Too many unknowns.

• Lexaria is a biotechnology company seeking to enhance the bioavailability of multiple drug agents using DehydraTECH (DHT), its technology using oral and topical delivery.
• It combines lipophilic APIs with specific fatty acid and carrier compounds followed by dehydration.
• DHT offers several attractive features: substantial improvement in bioabsorption in terms of time to measurable plasma levels & AUC, brain permeation, taste masking & side effect reduction.

• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) reported their Q1 results, and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) reported their first quarter updates. 
• Due to the base effect, Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.

• 85% of Lankan rubber products shipped to US, EU markets  
• Tariffs can diminish 28% of US rubber products export revenue  
• Govt allocates LKR 1500 million for rubber industry in Budget

• Talos’ current ~$2.5 billion enterprise value (EV) reflects a 23% discount to the ~$3.2 billion PV-10 of company’s year-end 2024 proved developed reserves using flat prices of $65/bbl for oil and $3/MMBtu for natural gas.
• Total proved reserves at year-end were 194 MMBoe (74% oil/81% liquids). Estimated probable reserves at year-end 2024 were 125.3 MMBoe, having a PV-10 on the same flat pricing of ~$2.7 billion.
• On a proved plus probable basis, the discount widens to 58%. Under SEC pricing ($76.32/bbl and $2.13/MMBtu), the discount was 41% for total proved and 66% for proved plus probable.

• OPEC lowered its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 1.3m bpd from 1.45m bpd, while the IEA and EIA also revised forecasts down to 0.90m bpd and 0.73m bpd, respectively.
• The EIA significantly lowered its 2025-2026 crude oil price outlook, citing the dual impact of Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s decision to boost output.
• U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures are injecting uncertainty into global oil trade and refining margins.

• Telecom leader in key frontier markets. VEON serves nearly 160 million subscribers across frontier markets including Ukraine, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Bangladesh.
• Multiple potential unicorn tech businesses within the Group. VEON has multiple rapidly growing tech businesses with unicorn (US$1bn valuation) potential.
• Ukraine spin-out to unlock value. VEON is planning a Nasdaq IPO spin-out of its Ukraine business Kyivstar via de-SPAC for 2H25E. We rate VEON as a Structural Long, US$59 Target.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 1Q25 (March) results after the close on Wednesday.
• While we believe our 1Q projections reflected tariff conditions correctly, with April tariff levels increasing on goods from China to 125%, we are entering uncharted territory where, frankly, our current projections probably do not apply.
• We believe JAKKS Pacific management will have to rebuild their business model, which could entail higher pricing, deeper focus internationally (21% of 2024 sales), lower S,G&A and licensing spend and, longer term, shifting what can be shifted in terms of production from China, which currently accounts for virtually all product manufacturing.

• MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report

• Schlumberger will report its Q1 earnings on 25/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually due to subdued oil prices and demand.
• Schlumberger’s OI PCR at 0.70, signalling neutral sentiment, with a 96% IV percentile indicating high volatility.
• For the 25/Apr expiry, SLB’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 42, 43, and 45, while puts dominate at 34, 33, and 32, with lower put OI at key levels.

• They are the seventh largest writer of residential property insurance in Florida based on DPW for policies in-force as of December 31, 2024.
• For the years ended December 31, 2024 they produced gross premiums written of $767.7 million and  net premiums written of $194.4 million. Their net income was $39.7 million.
• We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the month of May.

• Hu discussed the upcoming launch of Molecular Universe MU-0 and described how the firm is using AI to accelerate battery materials discovery.
• The Molecular Universe platform is the outgrowth of the firm’s work to map out the entire small molecule universe relevant for Li-metal and Li-ion battery chemistries.
• The platform enables R&D teams to search for chemistries that meet specific engineering requirements, tuned to the specifics of different industry use cases, and interrogate the map of the chemical space in natural language, greatly enhancing R&D efficiency.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $23 price target for Guess?
• after visiting stores in Metropolitan New York City and Long Island.
• We believe, after a long period of shifts and upgrades, Guess?

• Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term…
• SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
• 5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.

• Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.
• Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.
• Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.

• Recent performance and legal overhangs make this quarter interesting and more unpredictable.
• We provide a detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in GOOGL options compared to historical outcomes.
• The implied move looks rich relative to long-term averages—but more in line with recent quarters.

• Global base oils prices stay firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Firm base oils margins point to tight supply and strong demand.
• Firm base oils margins incentivize refiners to raise base oils output.

• Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in regional markets like northeast Asia so far this year.
• Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in more distant markets like Americas so far this year.
• Asia’s firm prices complicate arbitrage, reflecting tighter-than-usual regional supply late last year and in early-2025.

• Market inefficiencies persist in crypto markets, particularly in cross-exchange arbitrage and futures basis trading
• Traditional factor models can be adapted for cryptocurrency markets with size, momentum, and liquidity factors showing statistical significance
• On-Chain metrics provide unique alpha signals unavailable in traditional markets

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q125 financial results are scheduled for release on Thursday 8 May, after the market close in Toronto. Ahead of the release, we have updated our forecasts to reflect, in particular, an increase in production from Salobo from 60,109oz to 73,655oz, in line with the volume of copper produced according to Vale’s Q125 production report, released on 15 April. We have also assumed no further inventory build in Q1, after a 27,535oz gold equivalent increase in Q424 (against the historical trend). Including an adjustment for prices as well, these changes have resulted in a 17.4% increase to our Q125 adjusted EPS estimate and a 10.7% increase to our FY25 estimate.

• On April 17, 2025, Ring announced that 1Q25 oil production exceeded the high end of guidance and that total production exceeded the midpoint of guidance.
• For 1Q25, the oil production guidance range was 11,700-12,000 Bo/d and the midpoint total production guidance was 18,250.
• Since oil represents more than 95% of total revenue, the oil outperformance has an outsized revenue impact.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $58 price target for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
• We believe the later Easter (April 20th versus March 31st last year) was a material positive for the company, driving higher sales of multiple Easter related items and allowing for Build-A-Bear to flow in more newness, leverage their Mini Beans offerings, expand the licensed products and add new “furry friends” to the mix.
• As such, we believe Build-A-Bear, in a period of materially negative investor sentiment on the consumer, is poised to drive solid overall 1QFY25 results, and, with BBW trading under 9X our FY26 EPS and offering a dividend yield of over 2.5%, offer a compelling risk/reward for investors; we reiterate our Buy rating and $58 price target.

• US domestic Group II base oils price premium to feedstock prices holds at more elevated levels.
• Firm base oils margins incentivize refiners to maintain higher production levels.
• Outright US domestic Group II prices fall in April 2025, at a time of year when prices typically hold steady or rise.

• For the week ending 17/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
• For the week ending 11/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 16 Bcf, which was lower than analyst expectations of a 24 Bcf increase.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.93 on 17/Apr compared to 0.95 on 11/Apr. Call OI increased by 2.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 0.3%.

• Asia’s base oils demand could face more marked pressure as expectations of softer supply-demand fundamentals coincide with concern about economic slowdown and impact of US tariffs.
• Uncertainty about timing, size and impact of US tariffs adds to blenders’ incentive to maintain lower stocks.
• High base oils prices relative to feedstock and gasoil prices and relative to other regions add to incentive to hold back.

• WTI futures rose 4.1% for the week ending 17/Apr, driven primarily by U.S.-China trade talks and falling U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories.
• The U.S. rig count rose by two to 585. The oil rig count rose by one to 481, while gas rigs also grew by one to 96.
• WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.81 on 17/Apr from 0.80 on 11/Apr. Call OI decreased by 13% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.9%.

• NVX believes its strategy aligns with the administration’s goal to secure critical mineral supply chains and support domestic manufacturing.
• Its existing Riverside plant – where production capacity has been pre-sold via multiple offtake agreements – is in Tennessee and NVX plans to construct a 2nd production facility in the state, recently obtaining approval and expected tax credits toward this project.
• Each of NVX’s three operating units is expected to play an important role in its development & growth, as NVX leverages proprietary R&D & patented technology to develop critical materials for the battery sector.

• Soluna is on a mission to make renewable energy a global superpower using computing as a catalyst.
• The company designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure that transforms surplus renewable energy into global computing resources.
• Soluna’s pioneering data centers are strategically co-located with wind, solar, or hydroelectric power plants to support high performance computing applications including Bitcoin mining, Generative AI, and other compute-intensive applications. 

• Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.
• If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.
• If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.

• After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
• Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
• Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?  

• A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. 
• Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
• Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. 

• Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. 
• Chagee (CG) is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
• In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics and added a new peer to compare with  

• Time for your weekly fix of what’s going on at the messy intersection of commodities and geopolitics.
• Energy prices are drifting lower — just as Trump said they would — but I’m not so sure the driver is the one Trump and his team anticipated.
• We’re staring down the barrel of a pretty material manufacturing slump in Q2.

• Halliburton’s Q1 revenue is set to drop 9.1% YoY, with EPS down 21.1%, driven by soft North American activity and weak oil prices.
• Halliburton has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and peers SLB and Baker Hughes, weighed down by its greater U.S. shale exposure and rising input costs.
• Despite near-term headwinds, analysts retain a “Buy” rating on Halliburton, citing strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet, and strategic investments.

• Chagee Holdings (CHA US) priced a full-size deal of 14.7mm shares at $28.00  (high-end of the range) and Opened at $33.75 for a 20.5% gain.
• The immediate IPO pipeline is primed and ready to go, however, the current uncertainty in the market due to the everchanging economic winds is forcing companies to bide their time. 
• Chagee was still able to achieve a desirable outcome by meeting three criteria: Large Anchor orders, Smaller Transaction, Attractive Valuation

• Last year was transformational for KITT, with its strategy shifting to commercializing its technology from its prior focus on research and development.
• The company expects 2025 “will continue to be a year of change.”
• On the earnings call and callback, our focus was on sizing the opportunity, the outlook for the year given long lead times and seasonality in the business, and the competitive landscape.

• For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel rise). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
• Henry Hub headed for a fourth straight daily loss, with analysts expecting a 24 Bcf build in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending 11/Apr.
• Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Halliburton, while TotalEnergies expects Q1 hydrocarbon production at the high end of its guidance range.