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Event-Driven and Index Rebalance

Sep 14
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Sep 14, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. [Japan Event/Buyback] The Sony Financial Spinoff – ‘Maybe’ BUYBACK Complicates Planning

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • The Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) (now called Sony Financial Group Inc (“SFGI”)) spinoff approaches. It will start trading 20 days from now.
  • Yesterday, the TSE confirmed approval (outline, Securities Report (J), Corporate Governance Report (J). The company provided details of a possible ToSTNeT-3 buyback on Day 2 pre-open. That complicates things.
  • The introduction of that type of buyback flexibility indicates that supply overhang may be managed better than buyers would hope. Means other strategies may be necessary.

2. [Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO – Light Price, Open-Ish Register, Tough to Take Over, Could Do Fun

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • On 10 September, the founding Nishimura family, the PE Firm CVC, and Mandom Corp (4917 JP) agreed that the first two could take over the latter at 4.9x Mar28 EBITDA.
  • A cocktail napkin calculation of expected leverage suggests the equity check is buying this at 5x average Mar27-28 free cash flow. That’s cheap for a growing company.
  • The register is open enough to cause problems but not open enough to allow a clean hostile bid by a strategic. But still open enough for someone to have fun.

3. Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
  • The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  
  • Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH’s peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. 

4. Merger Arb Mondays (08 Sep) – Kangji, OneConnect, Ashimori, Pacific Ind, RPM, Santos, Zeekr

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

5. Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.
  • The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
  • The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.  

6. Regarding the Six KRX Sector Names that Ran Ahead of Friday’s Official Review Drop

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Six names stood out with simultaneous volume spikes and sharp pops last Friday; all Semis and Autos additions with big passive impact, while all others showed no tape action.
  • Results likely leaked early, prompting front-running on Semis and Autos adds—high passive impact names—causing Friday’s sharp volume and price spikes.
  • Early movers are mostly priced in; Thursday momentum plays still work, but Monday–Thursday morning requires caution. Focus on volume-driven flows before loading positions, long-short basket viable for other passive-impact names.

7. [Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Activist-Ish-Y investor Effissimo reported Friday they had a 6.68% stake as of the end of August. 
  • Their average price is ¥2,253 which is 10% through the price the family Bidco was bidding (¥2,050). 
  • As this hasn’t traded below terms at any point since announcement, an extension was likely. This morning, we got one. We’ll get another one before it’s done, BUT…

8. Timing the HHI–Mipo Spread Play Around the Passive Inflow Kick

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • HHI–Mipo spread holds 3–4%; cancellation risk minimal. Market views HHI as the cleaner MASGA play vs. Mipo, keeping the spread sticky and unlikely to tighten soon.
  • Potential kicker for widening comes from passive inflows when Mipo halts, as HHI gains weight in Global Standard vs. Mipo’s Small Cap.
  • HHI may see ~4x DTV passive inflow as it absorbs Mipo; pre-announcement flows could start late October, potentially widening the swap spread ahead of the Nov 27 halt.

9. PointsBet (PBH AU) And Mixi Double Down Ahead Of Offer Closing

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • On the 29th August, Mixi (2121 JP) cleared 50% of the voting power in PointsBet (PBH AU). It’s Offer was automatically extended, and will now close on the 12th September.
  • Mixi has 51.59%. betr Entertainment (BBT AU) said it holds 20.45%, plus 6.5% in the IAF, the instructions for which can be withdrawn. betr said it won’t accept Mixi’s Offer.
  • Mixi adds betr will have no PBH board representation “either now or in the future”; and betr will continue to be a clear competitor. Additionally, PBH questions betr’s buyback funding,

10. StubWorld: The Murdoch Succession Into News Corp, Fox & REA

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch’s son Lachlan is set to take control of News Corp (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).
  • Preceding my comments on News Corp and 62%-held REA Group Ltd (REA AU) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Sep 07
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Sep 7, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. [Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Honda Motor (7267 JP) and Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN) have arranged to buy Honda’s 69.7%-owned subsidiary Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) in a Tender Offer. 
  • The transaction structure means Motherson buys Yutaka for less than net cash but even assuming Motherson pay minority TOB price for everything, TOB ex-net cash = 0.05x PBR, <1x EBITDA.
  • But they are paying less. They are paying ¥12.4bn less than net cash, and getting the other ¥58bn of net assets (¥23bn inventory, the rest in hard assets) for free.

2. Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Korean equities are stalled; macro catalysts are absent. Street focus shifts from treasury share cancellations to next year’s mandatory tender offers, now seen as the top policy driver.
  • Pre-MTO trades focus on holding companies with wide NAV discounts or low controlling stakes, front-running policy-driven re-ratings before minority shareholders capture control premiums.
  • Focus on 32 Korean holding companies >KRW 500B; those with wide NAV discounts and lighter controlling stakes—SK’s holding companies, Samsung C&T, Hanwha, LG, LS—are prime re-rating plays.

3. ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • On the 15th July, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, firmed a cash or scrip Offer for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
  • ZEEKR has traded through the cash terms US$26.87/ADS from the onset; but at a discount to the scrip terms. The scrip spread has widened recently. 
  • The Offer is low-balled. However, Geely’s stake plus Li Shufu (founder)’s 10.61% holdings push the Offer through. Geely’s EGM is this Friday (7th July). Li (41.34%) is required to abstain. 

4. Merger Arb Mondays (01 Sep) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Kangji, Mayne, Santos, Shibaura, CareNet

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

5. HKBN (1310 HK): Mobile’s Offer Is Done. Now For The Back End

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • China Mobile (941 HK)‘s Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) will be declared unconditional tomorrow (3rd September), the first closing date. 
  • As I type, 19.03% of shares out have tendered, lifting Mobile’s stake to 48.9%. Additional shares will tip in today and tomorrow, as per your typical last minute flurry. 
  • It is not Mobile’s intention to delist HKBN. There will be investors playing the backend on the expectation of a higher Offer down the track.

6. HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)’s offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.075 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is September 3.
  • Based on CCASS data, including acceptances, China Mobile’s shareholding was 48.93% of outstanding shares as of September 1.
  • Therefore, the offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and for a September 12 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.5%/15.7%.

7. Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Effissimo Rears Its Head

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Effissimo reported a 5.87% ownership ratio in Pacific Industrial (7250 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,235.91 per share is 9.1% above the JPY2,050 MBO offer.
  • Effissimo buying significantly above terms is justifiable as the offer implied a P/B of 0.71x. Effissimo is agitating for either a bump or an opportunity to participate in the back-end.
  • With the offer closing on 8 September and shares trading 16.9% above terms, the Ogawas have little choice but to revise terms.

8. Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
  • The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price).  Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million). 
  • This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.

9. Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Murakami Outlines His Case

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Takateru Murakami, Yoshiaki Murakami’s son, has increased his Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) to an 18.36% ownership ratio at an average buy-in price of JPY4,154.28 vs. the JPY4,140 tender offer. 
  • Crucially, in today’s disclosure, Takateru Murakami outlines the rationale for his stake building, which centres on the book value being materially understated if certain land were revalued at market rates.
  • Maintaining current terms is increasingly not a viable option. Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is likely to pursue a strategy of either increasing its offer or lowering the minimum acceptance condition. 

10. Curator’s Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China’s Property Pulse

By Pranav Rao, Smartkarma

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
  • In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China’s bottoming/stabilizing real estate market
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next
Aug 31
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Aug 31, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) has announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm.
  • The same day as the dual proposals, Dongfeng announced an interim loss (1H25). Evidently, the way forward – from an investor standpoint – is electric, not internal combustion engines. 
  • The cash terms + scrip (into the EV listing) under the proposals are attractive. Even after this morning’s move (+53.6%) in Dongfeng’s share price.

2. Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

3. [Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Last weekend then post-close Monday, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) raised its TOB Price for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to ¥7,130 – a full 15% through Minebea’s proposed ¥6,200/share terms.
  • Minebea was playing chicken with the result, closing its tender on 28 August, before Japan’s Foreign Direct Investment approval (FEFTA approval) was cleared, expected 1 Sep or later.
  • Today post-close, YAGEO announced it had concluded discussions with METI, would make all required regulatory submissions today, and expects to obtain approval “no later than 10 September”

4. PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) has bumped scrip terms to 4.375 betr shares per PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) share, equivalent to A$1.31/share, based on betr’s last traded price. 
  • True to form with betr, there’s a typo in its latest announcement stating a 4.735 ratio. betr just issued a Bidder’s Statement with the correct info.
  • Apologies: in my last note I mentioned Mixi Inc (2121 JP) had bumped to A$1.30/share. However, that was predicated on Mixi securing 90%, which won’t happen if betr doesn’t tender.

5. A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • It was announced today that HD Hyundai Heavy Industries will merge with HD Hyundai Mipo. The merger ratio between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo is 1:0.4059146. 
  • HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) will own a 66.29% stake in the merged entity.
  • HD KSOE is proceeding with this merger of its two major subsidiaries ahead of the full-scale launch of the MASGA (“Make America Shipbuilding Great Again”) project.

6. Near-Term Flows to Watch on Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation in Korea

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Dems likely to push 3rd package in Q4; near-term flows chasing treasury stock cancellation theme, with locals screening >₩1tn mkt cap, >10% treasury shares of float.
  • Little pushback on mandatory treasury cancellations; debate focused on timeline — grace period vs. immediate rollout — highlighting how much leeway government may grant differing governance structures.
  • Too early for governance plays; near-term momentum flows likely in names with highest treasury stock relative to float, where cancellation is expected to hit flows hardest.

7. [Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) – Opaque LBO/MBO Garners New Attention from Existing Shareholder

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • When EQT launched its deal for Carenet Inc (2150 JP) two weeks ago, I thought it opaque, and light, and strangely lacking in information which should be there. 
  • It has not gotten clearer, though three days ago, the largest foreign shareholder as of the announcement reported they had lowered their position by 3.77% (4.22% of votes).
  • Then yesterday, someone else reported they had gone above 5%. The data implied in that filing suggests this may have legs. I’d buy through terms.

8. ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has made steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. On 22 August, NDRC approval was obtained. 
  • The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$74.44 (range of HK$67.84 to HK$83.64). 
  • The protest votes for director re-elections at the 23 May AGM are a risk. On balance, the scheme vote should pass as the offer is reasonable and strategically sensible.   

9. HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • HHI–Mipo merger spread looks minimal, but today’s MASGA-driven pop signals momentum flows—likely to mean-revert toward appraisal rights once the theme dissipates.
  • Froth lifted prices past fundamentals—once it unwinds, HHI–Mipo could diverge from swap ratio, creating the spread window where traders can get paid.
  • This isn’t classic merger arb—it’s about fading a policy-fueled pop, riding the snapback toward appraisal baseline, with flow-driven swings creating short-term tactical arb setups.

10. Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • On 21 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer by 7.0% to JPY6,635. On 23 August, Yageo further increased its offer by 7.5% to JPY7,130.  
  • The offer is partially in reaction to Minebea’s recent comments around Yageo securing FEFTA approval. Crucially, Yageo finally provided an update suggesting that only a few issues remained.
  • Yageo’s JPY7,130 offer is not over-the-top, as Minebea’s 10x EV/EBIT pricing guideline outlined on 18 August potentially justified a JPY7,300 offer. The likelihood of Minebea walking has increased.
Aug 24
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Aug 24, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. FEFTA Classification Changes Summer 2025

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • The Ministry of Finance has published an updated “FEFTA List” of classifications of listed companies as of July 15, 2025. 
  • 50 names lowered their ranks from the most “core” Type 3 to Type 2(20), or Type 1(30). 104 names raised from Type 1(51) or Type 2(53) to Type 3.
  • Smartkarma readers may want to peruse the lists and details to see if they think companies are trying to protect themselves (from threats as yet not known by the public).

2. Merger Arb Mondays (18 Aug) – Santos, Shibaura, ENN Energy, Kangji, OneConnect, Smart Share

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

3. Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Nearly seven months after receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer had been entered into.
  • The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO,  made an Offer of US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
  • Now Hillhouse has thrown its hat into the ring with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. Smart Share’s special committee of independent directors should engage. 

4. Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.
  • Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.
  • Spread >10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.

5. HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Most traders are starting in September, rolling into October. Sep/Oct spread volume has picked up unusually fast, clearly reflecting hedge demand linked to the tender
  • As September expiry approaches, basis-squeeze risk rises, likely pushing September cheap and October expensive, widening the spread — creating a clear side trade opportunity.
  • With a basis squeeze expected near September expiry, we could enter a Sep/Oct spread (short Sep, long Oct) and also watch for spot-futures decoupling to play the cash-futures spread.

6. Hanon Systems Announces a Major Potential Rights Offering

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • On 14 August, Hanon Systems (018880 KS) announced a potential rights offering capital raise. The exact amount will be finalized at the EGM next month. 
  • The significant size of the rights offering is expected to burden its largest shareholder Hankook Tire & Technology (161390 KS) which owns a 54.8% stake in Hanon Systems. 
  • We believe the potential rights offering is likely to continue to negatively impact Hanon Systems by diluting its existing shareholders. 

7. Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Still A Buy As Pledged Shares Further Decline

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

8. Curator’s Cut: Singapore Unlocks Value, India’s Jewellery Caution & Taiwan’s Top ETF’s Rebalance

By Pranav Rao, Smartkarma

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
  • In this cut, we review value-unlocking moves by Singapore-listed companies, take stock of India’s jewellery retail market, and track how Taiwan’s largest ETF drives flows for its adds and deletes
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

9. [Japan M&A] Minebea Forces a Game of Regulatory Chicken on Shibaura (6957 JP)

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has bid ¥6,200/share for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). The tender ends 28 August. YAGEO has over bid now to ¥6,635/share.  
  • YAGEO’s regulatory clearance decision may not arrive before 1 September, after the Minebea tender closes. Minebea now says they will neither bump nor extend. 
  • Minebea is hoping people will throw in the towel and tender because if their tender ends and Yageo’s fails, it might a long way down. There are possibilities but… scary.

10. US Government May Acquire Equity Stakes in Samsung Electronics and TSMC

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • According to Reuters, the US government may be interested in acquiring equity stakes in Samsung Electronics and TSMC in exchange for CHIPS and Science Act grants.
  • The US government is exploring ways to take equity stakes in these two Asian tech giants that have been expanding their semiconductor facilities in the United States.
  • If the US government decides to invest $10 billion each in Samsung Electronics and TSMC, they would represent about 3% and 1% of Samsung Electronics and TSMC’s market caps, respectively. 
Aug 17
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Aug 17, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. Sun Corp (6736) – CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • 12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.
  • The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.
  • Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm…

2. [Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • In March 2022, Infroneer bid ¥770. The Board said “too low” but then accepted. A month later, YFO offered ¥1,000. Too high, bad owner, not accepted. 
  • Summer 2023 after a year of palm to the face for YFO, the Board was partly spilled. YFO bid ¥1,255/share and the Board said the premium was too low. 
  • Now, the Board has accepted a bid from Taisei at a roughly similar premium. But the price is ¥1,750/share. Infroneer and YFO have agreed to sell. Minorities win… -ish

3. Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Consortium’s Light Preconditional Scheme Offer

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK) disclosed a preconditional privatisation from a consortium at HK$9.25, a 9.9% premium to last close and a 21.7% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The key condition will be approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection). The offer is final. 
  • The scheme vote risk is medium-to-high due to an unattractive offer, a blocking stake below the substantial disclosure threshold, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.

4. Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Hunting the reversion point for Square-Hynix price ratio amid local buzz: need clear pro-business tax signals and Hynix’s downtrend to continue despite today’s bounce.
  • Tax tweak likely turns neutral despite gov’s cautious tone today. Hynix’s bounce faces headwinds from supply ramp and yield issues, so fresh rally odds remain slim.
  • Focus on hunting SK Square vs. Hynix price ratio reversion, pairing it with Samsung Long/Hynix Short for a strong short-term trade setup to ride the trend.

5. [Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • After three months of NOT matching YAGEO’s bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥6,w00 as YAGEO’s proposal continues its long plod through FEFTA review, Minebea-Mitsumi has now matched ¥6,200.
  • Key is that their bid closes before the indicative deadline for YAGEO to receive word on FEFTA approval. They are hoping this bid mollifies the irrevocables and everyone else. 
  • But if YAGEO cares, it could bump to ¥6,300 tomorrow and extend its tender offer which closes on Monday. But the put option is now struck higher, which de-risks this.

6. Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • KCMC 2025 will likely reveal fresh, unpriced stimulus details, potentially sparking a price rally like last year’s 2% KOSPI 200 jump on the value-up ETF rollout.
  • The key wildcard at KCMC 2025 is dividends—shifting from Yoon’s Japan-style ROE grind to a Taiwan-style push for bigger shareholder payouts.
  • With Sept 29 approaching, dividend policy buzz may drive price moves—smart to prep dividend momentum trades to front-run this catalyst.

7. Current Samsung Biologics Split Dynamics with Alpha Potential Both Ways

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • One of the hottest local plays is gauging KRX and FSS leanings on Biologics split, which could drive short-term alpha across the three Samsung names alongside battery and HBM flows.
  • Short-Term focus is KRX pre-listing review and FSS registration window. Once approval and lock-up kick in, Biologics and Samsung Electronics could outperform Samsung C&T.
  • From a risk-hedge angle, this is a long-short alpha setup: if the split fails, Samsung C&T likely takes the hit, offering alpha potential both ways.

8. Merger Arb Mondays (11 Aug) – Mayne, PointsBet, Infomedia, Ashimori, Toyo Const, HKBN, Joy City

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

9. [Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • To my knowledge, this may be the first Tender Offer takeout proposal on a “new ticker.” Rezil (176A JP) was listed just 16mos ago. 
  • This takeout is done on a highish-growth stock at 11.7x 1yr forward EV/EBITDA. It’s not expensive, but they have ~60%. BUT… there’s another Potential Player who may have Big Thoughts.
  • Slightly long-dated, small-cap, likely to be illiquid. Watch how it trades early for hints.

10. Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails

By Devi Subhakesan, Investory

  • A wave of corporate actions by SGX-listed companies has unlocked substantial shareholder value and re-rated select stocks in recent months. In this note, we spotlight five standout cases.
  • Our top picks with the strongest catalysts for further upside after delivering significant shareholder returns over the past year are – Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Yangzijiang Financial (YZJFH SP). 
  • The outsized value creation delivered by these companies should serve as a wake-up call for other managements to follow suit and initiate actions to boost returns and unlock shareholder value.
Aug 10
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Aug 10, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. [Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
  • PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
  • This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

2. [Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • On 30 July, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) and Swedish PE Firm EQT announced a deal to acquire the company with the Uchiyama family. Two activists signed tender agreements. 
  • The deal is not expensive IF you underwrite strong profitability growth and assume the large net receivables position can be better addressed.
  • But the stock is trading tight to terms and there are 6+ months until you get your money. 

3. [Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) is the owner/operator of a set of ubiquitous brands in aftermarket autocare. Anything to do with washing, cleaning, etc. 
  • The company was founded 70 years ago, and the CEO is 54yrs old. Smells like succession planning. 
  • This deal is a nice premium, but it is too light. The operating assets with consistent growth and 20% OPMs are being sold at <0.9x book. That’s bad.

4. Merger Arb Mondays (04 Aug) – Santos, Joy City, HKBN, Krosaki Harima, Fujitec, Smart Share

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

5. [Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • 54 weeks ago Advantage Partners and Furukawa Electric announced a deal to take Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) sub Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) private. The acquisition price was LOW.
  • Minorities got more – more than book. But the deal included a payment delay allowing BVPS to rise 8.8% from the announcement date. No synergies. 
  • Furukawa Electric gets to buy back in at a price below book. And because there are cash and securities and lots of net receivables, the operating assets are well below.

6. [Japan M&A] Krosaki Harima (5352) Takeout by Parent Nippon Steel – Cheapish But Done

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • On Friday 1 August, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and subsidiary Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) announced the parent would buy out the sub at ¥4,200/share. 
  • This seems light given the structure of the balance sheet (lots of net receivables – a bunch against the buyer) but it would be awfully tough to see this broken.
  • As it is a long-dated deal, I expect it trades too tight early on, then may flatten or fade.

7. [Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • There was an article in mid-May saying Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) might be privatised. It is an appropriate candidate. The stock popped 20% immediately, and has since risen another 20%. 
  • Today’s article follows one which came out ~2 weeks ago with non-sourced editorial content suggesting the price might be 20x EBITDA (i.e. a lot higher). 
  • Today, an article says Blackstone will buy the firm for “Roughly ¥500bn” which would be 3% down from yesterday. Beware the Nikkei. Beware expectations.

8. A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.
  • If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.
  • This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.

9. A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025):  HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • AH premia up, erasing the previous week’s gains for Hs. “Beautiful Skew” continues in negative overall performance. 
  • Last week I said “This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable.” This week it unwound some.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

10. Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.
  • Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).
  • Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.
Aug 03
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Aug 3, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) Placement: Strong Momentum & Index Flows

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) is looking to raise US$650m at a price range of HK$104.16-106.4/share, a 5-7% discount from last close.
  • There will be passive buying from global index trackers around the time of settlement of the placement shares. Then there will be some Hang Seng Index buying in August.
  • Short interest in WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) has spiked and some shorts could cover into the placement. The AH premium could move higher following the placement.

2. GMO Internet (4784) – GMO Internet Parent Has Been SELLING In The Market

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • I have harped on the fact that GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) has to sell GMO Internet (4784 JP) shares with the goal to get 35% tradable shares by end-2025.
  • I have written about it here, here, here, and here. The price needs to be lower so the parent can launch a HUGE block. The stock must be less squeeze-able.
  • It turns out the parent started selling in the market the day after the Offering was cancelled. The setup is delicious now.

3. NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).
  • The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.
  • Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)‘s stock price has dropped following the announcement of NSDL‘s IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.

4. Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Most expect prefs to be in policy crosshairs soon—watch for tighter rules on dividends, discounts, and liquidity, plus likely incentives for redemption or cancellation ahead of commons.
  • If Korea rolls out a pref stock overhaul, long-biased rerate plays could pop—focus on liquid, high-yield large-cap prefs trading at 35%+, yield north of 3%, and solid daily turnover.
  • Korea Inv, Kumho Petro, CJ Cheil, CJ Corp prefs already screen well; Doosan and Hanwha 3PB could join if dividend hikes materialize on back of strong sub earnings.

5. [Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction – Totally Unsurprising

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Hogy Medical (3593 JP)‘s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
  • I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
  • The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.

6. A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Raging Onward

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • AH premia down again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
  • This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable. 
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

7. Merger Arb Mondays (28 Jul) – Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Mayne, Santos, ENN, Smart Share

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

8. ADR Arb on Korean Divvy Names: A Side Play Riding the Policy-Driven Liquidity Wave

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • ETF rebalancing’s key, but still too early to front-run — both use FnGuide screens based on FY1 DPS and prices from 20 days before November-end.
  • Beyond the rebalance noise, ADR-local spreads have been widening — KB hit +6%, Shinhan’s also drifting. Likely tied to the recent liquidity surge in dividend names.
  • ADR arb’s more doable with NXT tightening slippage. With proper FX hedging, it’s a clean side play riding the policy-driven liquidity wave.

9. [Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) MBO Officially Being Done Dirt Cheap

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • The MBO for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) starts with the father+son Chairman and CEO, – combined stake 2.92% – putting nothing in to buy this, with help from banks.
  • The Takeover Price is priced at 0.7x book, and a Net Debt to EBITDA of 2x (when adjusted for securities+pension assets+DTLs) and 5-6x average 2026-2030 FCF.
  • This is being done too cheap: Toyota is the main customer, one third of revenues comes from Japan, and the company is set for a transition to EVs.

10. [Japan M&A] – KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.
  • In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.
  • The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.
Jul 27
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Jul 27, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

By Michael Causton, JapanConsuming

  • ACT’s bid for Seven & I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
  • Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
  • The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.

2. SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.
  • Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.
  • Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.

3. TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • A bit over three years ago I re-wrote on Tsi Holdings (3608 JP). Then? EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA of 0.03x and 0.5x respectively. I pounded the table. 
  • My recommended trade: “Buy the stock (preferably from cross-holders interested in selling). Buy with both hands. Buy a lot. Buy more later. Pressure the company to go private.”
  • Since then, total return has been +295%. Today they announced another buyback. Tomorrow morning it gets done. Details details details!

4. Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Anthem Biosciences raised INR 34bn (US$394m) in its IPO valuing the company at INR 320bn (US$3.7bn). The stock lists today.
  • The grey market premium is INR 132/share, so the stock could list 23.2% higher than the IPO price. That will help in getting larger index flows.
  • Anthem Biosciences could be added to one global index in November while the stock price gain will determine whether the stock is added to the other global index in December.

5. A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • AH premia flat again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
  • Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

6. Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Since unwinding the Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus (PRX NA) circularity, Prosus has been selling Tencent shares, and buying back its share. Separately, Tencent is buying its shares to offset Prosus’ selling. 
  • Prosus’ stake in Tencent has now edged below 23%, a little over seven months since dipping below 24%.
  • On an implied stub and relative value, Prosus is elevated to Tencent, suggesting an unwinding of the stub.

7. Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

8. Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU), a wealth manager and previously known as IOOF, has entered into a Scheme with CC Capital at $A$4.80/share. 
  • That’s 56.9% premium to undisturbed (11th December 2024), 20% above Bain’s initial indicative tilt last year, but 4% below CC Capital (% Bain’s) A$5.00/share indictive Offer on the 7th March.
  • Apart from the Scheme vote, CC Capital’s Offer requires a raft a regulatory approvals. The SID indicates 1H26 completion.

9. StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

10. Two New Tax Tweaks Set to Shake Up Korea’s Local Stock Market: Trading Tax & CGT Threshold

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Trading tax gradually dropped from 0.25% in 2020 to 0.15% in 2025, boosting volatility and short-term trades; a hike to 0.25% could cool momentum but widen arbitrage and basis spreads.
  • If the major shareholder tax threshold drops to ₩1B, year-end retail dumps and Jan buybacks will return—but with less wild swings and more measured short-term fade and momentum trades.
  • If the tax revamp drops end-July, expect a September Assembly push. Usually effective next January, but like 2023’s cap gains hike, changes might apply immediately in 2025.
Jul 20
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Jul 20, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. 7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
  • The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
  • The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.

2. [Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share. 
  • Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share. 
  • The Tender Offer Buyback was “successful” in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications

3. GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • GMO Internet (4784 JP) was squeezed after a merger which was a Reverse Takeover followed by a ridiculous TOPIX inclusion. Then the parent tried an offering, which failed. 
  • The clearing price demanded was WAAAY lower so the offering was pulled. Shares fell 70%, then bounced 65%. Now 48x book and 66x EBITDA for an ISP. Super expensive. Manipulated.
  • ParentCo needs to sell 90mm shares ASAP. The only clean way is through a liquidation trust to get shares lower before a larger offering.

4. Mandatory Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares: A Historic Stock Market Event in the Making

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • The bill’s side notes clearly state that the mandatory cancellation rule applies retroactively to existing treasury shares without any exemptions.
  • If this passes the Assembly as-is, it’ll trigger a historic forced cancellation of treasury stock across ~1,660 companies—about three-quarters of the K-equities market.
  • Watch if this punchy bill clears committee and floor without cuts. Dems plan to fast-track it Sept 1, holding the majority to push it solo, aiming for year-end rollout.

5. Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

6. [Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Diamond Dining (3073 JP) (DD Group) head Matsumura-san appears to be getting out in this Polaris MBO for the dining group. 
  • The premium is low, and the the price is probably light, but there are a couple of small things which mean it isn’t quite as light as it might look. 
  • But the company prints cash, so yeah, it’s light. This should probably be a bit better, but F&B is a fickle business. 

7. A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
  • Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. 

8. ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • ZEEKR (ZK US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Geely Auto (175 HK) at US$26.87 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares. The cash offer increased by 4.7%. 
  • The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk, as Zeekr is a subsidiary of Geely), as well as approval from Zeekr’s shareholders and Geely’s independent shareholders.  
  • The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely vote is low risk due to the low takeover premium. 

9. Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

10. Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Couche-Tard has withdrawn its offer for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) by unfairly laying the entire blame on the Board.
  • The Board has made credible progress, but the jury is still out on whether the Board’s plan will generate returns. Shareholders remain sceptical as the shares have underperformed the index.
  • In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are no near-term catalysts. 
Jul 13
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Jul 13, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop

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1. NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) could raise up to US$824m in its IPO if the overallotment option is exercised and the stock is expected to start trading on 14 July.
  • Cornerstone investors will own 16.8% of shares out following the IPO but there is no lock-up on these shares. The sponsor will own 20%/25% depending on whether overallotment is exercised.
  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) should be added to the smallcap segment of global indices in November and December while inclusion in local indices will take a lot longer.

2. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

3. [Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
  • The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. 
  • But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.

4. Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

5. Great Eastern (GE SP): SGX The Winner As Shareholders Block Exit Offer

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • After OCBC bumped terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) to $30.15/share via an Exit Offer, I wasn’t confident a 17.8% bump would dislodge Palliser. That appears the case.
  • At today’s EGM, 63.49% of minority shareholders  – OCBC abstained – were in favour on the Offer, falling short of the 75% condition. There was no blocking % condition. 
  • Shareholders voted for the resumption of shares via the issuance of shares (one-for-one bonus), satisfying the SGX free float requirement.  The SGX, and dissenters, will be happy with the outcome. 

6. Merger Arb Mondays (07 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Insignia, New World, ENN Energy, HKBN, Fengxiang

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

7. [Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Several Japanese companies jumped onto the OBaaBM/TABaaBM (Own/Talk-About-Bitcoin-as-a-Business Model) last fall to this spring as Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) shares went up and bitcoin did too. 
  • Yesterday, resin coating/injection molding product maker Ikuyo Co Ltd (7273 JP) announced an M&A Policy, and a Shareholder Benefits Program where shareholders will “win” amounts of bitcoin by lottery.  
  • Ikuyo expects revenues +955% this year. Details are sparse. The shareholder structure has red flags. The CEO sold himself half the company in Feb for peanuts. Forewarned. But it’s interesting.

8. Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • With the governance trade fading, local desks are rotating into dividend tax reform—bipartisan tailwinds and rising political chatter are driving early positioning ahead of potential rerating.
  • Local desks are screening for names with 35%+ payout and 30%+ individual ownership, key thresholds tied to the ruling party’s dividend tax reform bill gaining traction in policy circles.
  • The real trade is in names with individual top holders—direct beneficiaries of the tax reform—most exposed to theme flows and likely to lead on dividend hikes if the bill passes.

9. Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • As per news reports, Prosus NV (PRX NA) could look to sell some/all of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake, worth around US$4bn
  • Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.

10. A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
  • Last week I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.