In today’s briefing:
- CXMT: Path to Connect, STAR50 and CSI 300 Inclusion, and FF Nuances
- SELL Pop Mart (9992 HK): 1H26 Post-Results Takeaway
- StubWorld: Unicom’s “Hs” Are Cheap
- Public Financial (626 HK) Halted: Public Bank (PBK MK) Takeover Expected
- Public Financial Holdings (626 HK): Privatisation Offer from Public Bank?
- SMIC Q2 2026. Record Quarter & “AI Companion Chip” Demand Is Enormous
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (20 Aug 2026)
- VEON Ltd.: Inside the Hidden Digital Value That Could Reshape the Stock’s Valuation
- Alibaba Group (BABA US / 9988 HK) Q1 FY2027 Results Review — Cloud Holds; AI Investment Drag Peaks
- VEON Ltd.: Inside the Hidden Digital Value That Could Reshape the Stock’s Valuation
CXMT: Path to Connect, STAR50 and CSI 300 Inclusion, and FF Nuances
- CXMT listed on the SSE STAR Market on 27 Jul 2026. This note works through the entry rules and timing for Stock Connect, STAR50 and CSI 300.
- We estimate Northbound Connect access in Nov 2026 and a possible STAR50 ADD in Dec 2026. Then CSI 300 ADD in December 2027.
- It is already in MS-China All Shares. Then a possible MS-China ADD would follow at the February 2027 review, effective 1 Mar 2027.
SELL Pop Mart (9992 HK): 1H26 Post-Results Takeaway
- Growth. 1H26 revenue growth slowed sharply vs what is implied from consensus, confirming the reset we expected heading into results.
- Geography. Overseas revenue growth turned negative for the first time in the current growth cycle.
- IP sustainability. The flagship IP “The Monsters” declined YoY, partially offset by Twinkle Twinkle.
StubWorld: Unicom’s “Hs” Are Cheap
- After falling 12% post-1H26 results, China Unicom (762 HK) is inexpensive to its parent China United Network A (600050 CH) – its hybrid domestic A-share twin – and to peers
- Preceding my comments on Unicom, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Public Financial (626 HK) Halted: Public Bank (PBK MK) Takeover Expected
- Public Financial (626 HK) is suspended pursuant to Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Expect a Scheme Offer from Public Bank (PBK MK), holding 73.23%.
- Public Bank could offer, say $2.50/share, a 60% premium, which still backs out a low trailing P/B of 0.35x. It may well go higher to factor in the headcount test.
- Public Financial is super-illiquid. Look away now if this is not your thing.
Public Financial Holdings (626 HK): Privatisation Offer from Public Bank?
- Public Financial (626 HK) has entered a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.”
- It is likely that the controlling shareholder (Public Bank (PBK MK)), representing 73.23% of the outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme.
- While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test necessitates a reasonable offer. I estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.20-2.80 (41.9%-80.6% premium to last close).
SMIC Q2 2026. Record Quarter & “AI Companion Chip” Demand Is Enormous
- SMIC last week reported second quarter revenues of just over $3 billion, up 19.7% QoQ, up 36% YoY and handily beating the forecasted 15% growth at the midpoint.
- Gross margin was 25.3%, up 5.2 percentage points QoQ and up 4.9 points YoY. The significant improvement here was also attributed to both ASP increases a more favourable product mix.
- SMIC’s AI companion chip demand is enormous, we pulled forward shipments and increased this significantly. In this report we said the increase, on a comparable basis, should be around 40%.
Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (20 Aug 2026)
- CATL’s Rmb 15.5 billion AI energy infrastructure program is not a portfolio diversification play; it is a defensive, vertical land grab structured through minority equity positions to lock in its proprietary energy storage standards and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) architectures in data centers before competitors can react.
- The Licensing, Royalty, and Service (LRS) model in North America faces severe structural bottlenecks following recent US policy shifts under Section 45X. Regulatory rules targeting Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) increasingly interpret Chinese intellectual property and engineering control as disqualifying triggers for tax credits, creating major execution risks for future JVs.
- CATL’s upstream lithium integration, spearheaded by the Jianxiawo lepidolite mine, acts as a strategic price cap rather than a direct profit engine. With internal cash production costs of Rmb 80,000 to Rmb 100,000 per ton of LCE, the mine’s recent restart serves to depress merchant lithium carbonate prices (currently at Rmb 140,000 to Rmb 150,000 per ton), but will become uneconomical if spot prices drop toward the Rmb 80,000 floor.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
VEON Ltd.: Inside the Hidden Digital Value That Could Reshape the Stock’s Valuation
- This is our first report on VEON Ltd., a company that is becoming increasingly difficult to analyze as a conventional emerging-market telecommunications company, yet we believe that is still largely how investors are framing the business.
- Connectivity remains the foundation of the Group, providing the spectrum, network infrastructure, distribution, billing relationships and consumer trust required to serve more than 150 million telecommunications customers across Pakistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh and Uzbekistan.
- What has changed is what VEON is building on top of that foundation.
Alibaba Group (BABA US / 9988 HK) Q1 FY2027 Results Review — Cloud Holds; AI Investment Drag Peaks
- EPS miss (non-GAAP US$1.26 vs US$1.50) is discrete: AI Labs RMB13.9bn EBITA loss, peaked QoQ per management; EC DSA fine; RMB4.5bn goodwill impairment.
- AI Cloud +45% YoY; segment EBITA +133%; AI revenue reaches 35% of external cloud — twelfth consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth.
- Maintain BULLISH, with unchanged FV US$170/ADS & HK$166 — SOTP-derived: commerce 8x FY27F EBITA, cloud 4x FY27F EV/Sales, 10% geopolitical discount.
VEON Ltd.: Inside the Hidden Digital Value That Could Reshape the Stock’s Valuation
- This is our first report on VEON Ltd., a company that is becoming increasingly difficult to analyze as a conventional emerging-market telecommunications company, yet we believe that is still largely how investors are framing the business.
- Connectivity remains the foundation of the Group, providing the spectrum, network infrastructure, distribution, billing relationships and consumer trust required to serve more than 150 million telecommunications customers across Pakistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh and Uzbekistan.
- What has changed is what VEON is building on top of that foundation.
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