In today’s briefing:
- Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case
- Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Speculative Scrip Offer? No Thanks – Vote No
- Geek+ IPO (2590.HK): Long-Term, Warehouse Automation Story, But IPO Valuation Is Not Cheap
- BlissBio Pre-IPO: Selling Point Still Valid Despite BD Termination
- Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025
- HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook
- Jiaxin International Resources Investment Pre-IPO – Tungsten Powerhouse Anchored by State Capital
- Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK / 600362.SH): Turnaround Hinges on Captive Shift, Still Deep Value
- Shanghai Sunmi Technology Co., Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Taste Gourmet FY25: Strong Results, FY26 To See Decent Growth
Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case
- Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.
- Geekplus has been the world’s largest warehouse fulfilment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue for the last six consecutive years.
- The investment case is bearish due to declining growth, lower contract liabilities, hints of window dressing relating to reducing losses and ongoing cash burn.
Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Speculative Scrip Offer? No Thanks – Vote No
- A little over a year ago, I wrote about Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)‘s overly complicated scrip Offer in Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Absorption Via Speculative Scrip. Avoid.
- In summary, Yichang HEC shareholders were being offered 0.263614 “Offeror H shares”. These consideration shares are unlisted. The Offeror being Yichang HEC’s controlling shareholder (51.41%).
- The Composite Doc and the Offeror’s Listing by Way Of Introduction Doc are out. The independent H-shareholder vote is the 21st July. Shareholders should vote this down.
Geek+ IPO (2590.HK): Long-Term, Warehouse Automation Story, But IPO Valuation Is Not Cheap
- Geek+, global technology company and provider of scalable and flexible highly efficient solutions for warehouses, aims to raise ~$300M in Hong Kong IPO.
- The company is expected to IPO next week and offer price of HK$16.80 implies a market cap of HK$22B (~$2.8B). Geek+ is set to start trading on July 9, 2025.
- I believe that Geek+ has a large runway for growth in the global AMR solution market, but valuation keeps me from being positive on the name.
BlissBio Pre-IPO: Selling Point Still Valid Despite BD Termination
- BlissBio, a China biotech company with a focus on next-generation ADC, is seeking to raise at least USD100m via a Hong Kong listing. Sponsors are GS, Huatai, CCBI.
- In this note, we look at the company’s core product BB-1701, and briefly other three key products. We think it does have a good selling point.
- We also look at the company’s management and pre-IPO investors. We think the deal is worth following.
Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025
- Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
- Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals & Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU)
- Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)
HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook
- The Hang Seng Index has been rallying since our last BUY recommendation. However the rally may be temporarily stalling.
- The index is not overbought according to our model, around 50% probability of WEEKLY reversal – it could go higher.
- If the index closes this week down, it could be a buy opportunity, depending on the price reached (if the pullback is mild is probably better to hold/wait).
Jiaxin International Resources Investment Pre-IPO – Tungsten Powerhouse Anchored by State Capital
- Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited (JIRI) is looking to raise about US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- Jiaxin International owns exclusive rights to a globally significant tungsten asset, supported by Jiangxi Copper. Commercial production is scheduled to begin in 2Q25, with full ramp-up by 2027.
- Falling unit costs, rising ASPs, and front-loaded CAPEX point to improving free cash flow. Belt and Road alignment enhances access to funding and policy support.
Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK / 600362.SH): Turnaround Hinges on Captive Shift, Still Deep Value
- Revenue and net profit have grown steadily over the past 5 years, but margins remain structurally thin due to its tolling-heavy model.
- Strategic shift underway to expand captive mining, value-added copper products, and ESG compliance—potentially lifting margins and returns through FY30.
- Trading at a steep discount to Zijin (~0.6x P/B vs. 2.3x), the gap reflects real structural differences; not unjustified—but offers upside optionality under copper price normalization and higher captive integration.
Shanghai Sunmi Technology Co., Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Shanghai Sunmi Technology Co., Ltd. (SSTC) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by DB, Citic, and ABCI.
- SSTC is the largest Android-based BIoT solution provider in the world in terms of revenue in 2024, with a market share of over 10%, according to CIC.
- The company mainly relies on offline channels as over 99% of total revenue was generated from offline channels over the Track Record Period.
Taste Gourmet FY25: Strong Results, FY26 To See Decent Growth
- Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported revenues/adj profits up 19%/14% YoY for FY25, led by strong customer growth on account of new store openings.
- Net cash on the balance sheet was 190 million HKD, or 27% of the market capitalization. The company declared a final dividend of 8 cents (FY: 14 cents, ~7.2% yield).
- Despite the strong move following the results, the stock trades at 6.2x FY26e, assuming earnings on an adjusted basis grow by 14% YoY, mirroring their store growth.
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