In today’s briefing:
- Shandong Gold Mining Placement – H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares
- Simcere Pharma Placement – First Primary Raising, past Deals Have Been Mixed
- HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
- BYD (1211 HK): Flat Sales Volume in August and Lower Margin in 1H25
- Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: What Cones Reveal in Tencent, HSBC, Meituan & More
- Quiddity STAR 50/100 Sep25 Results: 11/12 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct; Large Outflow for Cambricon
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Aug 2025): AH Premia Expand Again, Beautiful Skew Takes a Breather
- Golden Throat (6896 HK): China’s Leading Lozenge Maker at 10x P/E and a 10% Dividend Yield
- Huaxin Cement (6655 HK): Floats Non-Chinese Ops Spin-Off
- Aux Electric IPO Trading: Decent Insti Demand; Is Cheap
Shandong Gold Mining Placement – H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares
- Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.
- The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.
- In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Simcere Pharma Placement – First Primary Raising, past Deals Have Been Mixed
- Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) is looking to raise around US$200m via a top-up placement.
- This is the first primary raising by the company since its listing. There have been a few secondary deals, with mixed results.
- In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
- HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)’s offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.075 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is September 3.
- Based on CCASS data, including acceptances, China Mobile’s shareholding was 48.93% of outstanding shares as of September 1.
- Therefore, the offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and for a September 12 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.5%/15.7%.
BYD (1211 HK): Flat Sales Volume in August and Lower Margin in 1H25
- In August, BYD’s total sales volume was still flat and its domestic sales volume continued to shrink.
- The operating margin declined significantly to 2.3% in 1H25 from 4.4% in 1H24.
- The P/E band suggests a downside of 23% and a price target of HK$89.00.
Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: What Cones Reveal in Tencent, HSBC, Meituan & More
- Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
- Highlights:Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK),Meituan (3690 HK), Ping An (2318 HK), and JD.com (9618 HK) all display historically cheap implied volatility. Read on for trade suggestions.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
Quiddity STAR 50/100 Sep25 Results: 11/12 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct; Large Outflow for Cambricon
- The September 2025 index review results for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices were announced after market close on Friday 29th August 2025.
- There will be one change for the STAR 50 index and five changes for the STAR 100 index.
- We expect one-way flows of approximately US$2.1bn and US$239mn for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 index rebal events respectively.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Aug 2025): AH Premia Expand Again, Beautiful Skew Takes a Breather
- HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… is flat. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.1% H underperformance vs As which is -4.4% on average over two weeks.
- Last week’s short reco on Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) was up 2.3% on the week in Hs but Hs underperformed the As by 1.86%.
- AH premia are in a widening phase. This may continue. New reco this week.
Golden Throat (6896 HK): China’s Leading Lozenge Maker at 10x P/E and a 10% Dividend Yield
Golden Throat (6896 HK — US$343 million) is an iconic Chinese brand of throat lozenges, used to deal with sore or dry throats.
The core product is similar to Strepsils, Halls, or Ricola, but is sold over-the-counter in pharmacies.
The company sells 146 million boxes per year and has an estimated market share of 26% in China.
Huaxin Cement (6655 HK): Floats Non-Chinese Ops Spin-Off
- Two days after announcing its 2025 interims, Holcim (HOLN SW)-backed Huaxin Cement (6655 HK) proposed spinning off its overseas cement assets.
- The overseas ops, predominantly located in Africa, significantly outperformed the PRC ops in FY24, a trend that continued into 2025.
- No preferred bourse was stipulated, although the HKEx appears the logical choice. Pegged to historical trading metrics, Huaxin appears fully valued here.
Aux Electric IPO Trading: Decent Insti Demand; Is Cheap
- Aux Electric (2580 HK) raised around US$532m in its Hong Kong IPO.
- It is one of the global top five air conditioner providers.
- We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.
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