Daily Brief China: WuXi XDC Cayman , Hangzhou EZVIZ Network, Meituan, Singamas Container Holdings, Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, ATRenew , Postal Savings Bank of China C, Cafe De Coral Holdings, Greentown China, CaoCao Inc and more

• WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 17th Nov 2023 after raising US$470m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 16th May 2024.
• WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
• In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• In my last insight (link), I discussed how the rankings had to be monitored closely before finalizing the index change expectations for the June 2024 index rebal event.
• Now that the reference period is complete, I have discussed my final expectations for the June 2024 review. The official index changes will be announced later this month.

• We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. 
• The upcoming autonomous driving (ADS) revolution has deep and fundamental implications in permanently cutting Meituan’s logistic cost;
• We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and raise TP to HK$150/share

• Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK) is interesting in that it has a net cash of US$300m (HK$2.35bn), but its market capitalisation is only HK$1.5bn. 
• This is a possible privatisation candidate given the steep discount to cash. The thin trading volume made it difficult to function as a financing platform.
• Business-Wise, it should have passed the trough as global container box plant utilisation is expected to improve in the next two years, driving profitability recovery.

• With the review period now complete, we forecast 7 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
• There are 4 stocks that could be added to both indices while some stocks will also have same way flows from CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
• The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last 6 months. There has been a big move higher in the potential adds over the last few weeks.

• Despite a slightly flatter revenue/margin trajectory outlook, we remain optimistic that ATRenew’s differentiated pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China will continue to drive outsized growth in transaction volumes, sales, fees, and profits over the long run.
• While RERE has meaningfully outperformed recently, we believe current levels for the stock still provide investors with an attractive entry point, as awareness and appreciation of the company’s business model, growth prospects, competitive positioning, and valuation disconnect increasingly take hold.
• Despite what we believe to be conservative inputs/assumptions, our DCF model suggests a wide disconnect between ATRenew’s fundamentals and the stock’s current price.

• NIM is continuing to decline, from ~2.5% at its recent peak to ~1.8% in the most recent quarter. This may be from higher rescheduled loans.
• Loan growth ascent is strangely steady, and not indicative at all, of any business cycle. This alone is a concern, for true visibility of figures.
• Impairment costs do not suggest concern on underlying credit metrics, but with far higher loan balances in the past few years, this is an even greater worry.

• Café de Coral faced challenges during COVID-19 but is now showing signs of recovery with the removal of restrictions and return of tourists
• If revenues and operating margin return to pre-pandemic levels, the stock could trade at a favorable P/E ratio and dividend yield
• Strong shareholder confidence through additional share purchases indicates Café de Coral is poised for success in the post-pandemic market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adaro Energy
• Greentown China
• Vedanta Resources

• CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Huatai, ABC International, and GF Securities.
• CaoCao Inc (CaoCao) is a ride-hailing firm incubated by the Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (Geely).
• According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm has consistently ranked as the top three ride hailing platforms in China based on gross transaction value (GTV) between 2021-2023.