Daily Brief Consumer: Guangzhou Automobile Group, Great Wall Motor, Laopu Gold, Toyota Motor, Anta Sports Products, APR, ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE, Ainsworth Game Technology, Eastroc Beverage Group, United Natural Foods and more

• AH premia down again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
• This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable. 
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Best in months. Net buying strong at +US$800mm a day. 
• Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, Non-bank FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Tech-y CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY was sold. SOEs stand out on the sell side. Again. 
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK)’s stock has fallen nearly 30% since its July 8 peak and declined another 4% yesterday despite an upbeat 1H2025 profit update.
• The company’s positive profit alert reported revenues and profits up more than 2.5x year-on-year, exceeding market expectations.
• The ongoing share price weakness despite strong results likely reflects a combination of technical factors, such as lock-up related selling, and broader fundamental concerns.

• A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 28 – August 1.
• OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) are just mildly oversold, NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is oversold.
• OVERBOUGHT: Amazon (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) , NVIDIA (NVDA US) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Hang Seng Index , Nikkei 225 INDEX 

• Anta expects “other brands” revenue will increase by “60-65%” YoY in 1H25.
• We believe Anta finished the consolidation of Jack Wolfskin within June.
• We conclude the stock will have an upside of 28% for the next twelve months.

• There are three major reasons why we would take profits on APR (278470 KS) at current levels. 
• They include lofty valuations, increased competition, and share price decline post large scale dividend payout announcement. 
• APR could be facing especially tough competition for the beauty device products from Amorepacific, LG H&H, and others especially starting in 4Q 2025. 

• MFE raised its offer to €7.88 implied, tightening the spread to just +1.15%; new long entries now face skewed downside risk without a second bump or strategic surprise.
• Legacy holders from €5.80–7.00 have captured meaningful gains; with the August 13 deadline approaching, using MFE-A hedges or call structures preserves upside while limiting exposure.
• MFE-A borrow remains accessible (~0.75%), making short hedges viable; paired with call options, this offers capital-efficient exposure to upside while mitigating equity volatility in a tight spread setup.

• Back on the 28th April 2025, Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, entered into a Scheme with Austria’s Novomatic, Ainsworth’s largest shareholder (52.9%). 
• Novomatic offered A$1.00/share (best & final) – including a permitted dividend – a 35% premium to last close; yet 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.
• The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. The IE says fair & reasonable. They are probably tight. 

• Both revenue and net profit of Eastroc maintain a high-speed growth trend in 25H1, which is impressive against the backdrop of the overall stabilization of the food and beverage industry.
• The mid-term dividend payout ratio is high, which is relatively rare among growth-oriented food and beverage companies. Valuation of Eastroc should be higher than Nongfu Spring, China Resources Beverage.
• However, inflation may drive up raw material prices. Eastroc’s profit may face pressure once products sales fail to grow as fast as expected.We updated our forecast for next three years

• United Natural Foods (UNFI) is a billion-dollar nationwide distributor of groceries in the U.S. and Canada, and has faced challenges with debt and integration following a merger
• UNFI saw success during the COVID-19 pandemic as demand for groceries surged, leading to improved financial performance and potential turnaround opportunities.

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