Daily Brief Consumer: Laopu Gold, Urban Company, Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial, Chagee Holdings, Colgate Palmolive Co, Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim, Connect, Tesla , Ferrari N.V., Autonation Inc and more

• Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed Laopu Gold (6181 HK)‘s chances of global index inclusion in May. 
• The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.
• Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year. 

• Urban Company (URBAN IN)  (UCL) is looking to raise about US$223m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Kotak, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JM Fin.
• UCL is a tech-enabled platform offering home and beauty services delivered by trained professionals at customer’s location.
• As of Dec 24, it operated in 59 cities across India and overseas.

• Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)‘s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. 
• At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny’s multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. 
• Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.

• As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.
• Fad cycles may or may not have legs – see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.
• Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.

• Colgate-Palmolive’s latest earnings reveals a mixed performance for the first quarter of 2025, underscoring both opportunities and challenges that the company faces in its strategic operations.
• The company’s management approached the volatile economic environment with a sense of preparedness, though consumer behavior and global economic pressures have presented some difficulties.
• One of the significant challenges highlighted is the impact of a weaker consumer market, particularly evident in volume growth struggles.

• Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH) (HDNET) raised around US$180m via its A/H listing.
• HDNET is a specialized manufacturer of PV cells which are used in making PV modules.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics, in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

H125 EPS grew 10% despite some revenue pressure on the core business as non-core revenue streams increased, cost savings were generated and finance costs declined. Furthermore, the company has appointed a new MD for Smiths News Recycle, which is a strong endorsement for its final-mile growth prospects. The addressable non-core ‘early morning’ market is sizeable and has a profit opportunity of c £160m, which implies that there is potential to more than offset the decline seen in the core operations and could lead to long-term profit growth. This in turn underpins the cash generation and the dividends, and could see further distributions if investment for growth is not required. We maintain our full year forecasts and our 93p/share valuation.

• 2025 has been a tumultuous year for Tesla (TSLA US), the stock struggled due to weakening sales, and CEO Elon Musk’s role in the US government has damaged the brand.
• Rumors of Tesla’s board seeking to replace Elon Musk are likely unfounded. A leadership change could backfire. The stock is up 26% since Musk signaled reduced involvement in government affairs.
• Despite rising competition from BYD (1211 HK) and others, Tesla (TSLA US)  remains a top pure-play EV maker. The current pullback could present a potential buying opportunity.

• Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)  reported Q1 FY25 revenue and earnings growth of 13% and 17%, (inline with analysts estimates) due to improved product mix and pricing.
• Management provided conservative guidance for FY25, projecting baseline revenue and EPS growth of 5% and 2% YoY, citing a 50 bps risk on margin owing to the trade wars. 
• The stock trades at 46.8x FY25 PE and 27x EV-EBITDA. Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) continues to maintain its unique pricing power position due to its loyal customer base. 

• AutoNation Incorporated delivered a robust performance in the first quarter of 2025, marked by notable achievements across several business areas.
• The company saw significant growth in new vehicle unit sales, with a 7% increase year-over-year, buoyed by strong performance in the Premium Luxury, Domestic, and Import segments.
• This growth was partly attributed to an acceleration following a tariff announcement, showcasing AutoNation’s agility in navigating external economic factors.