In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 – Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind
- Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal
- ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior
- Asian Equities: Secular DPS Growth Matters, Not Just Dividend Yield. Presenting Our “Asia 50”.
- A Pair Trade Basket Of Korean Consumer/Leisure Stocks (Long) And Japanese Names (Short)
- Chagee Holdings (CHA) Six-Month Summary: Stark Warning on Volatility, China-Based IPO Risk
- Tourism and Real Estate Stocks Dominate Filed Transactions Last Week
- The Game Has Changed Since the Era of Cross-Shareholdings
- ADT Rises as a Smart-Security Juggernaut With Powerful Tech Upgrades & Market-Shifting Strategy!
- Weekly Update (MEDXF, MAGN, LEN/MRP, MODG)
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 – Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind
- The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago.
- As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
- That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.
Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal
- The proposed bill fully closes the treasury-share loopholes, bans all exchangeable/pledge uses, blocks M&A allocations, and imposes strict cancellation deadlines—1 year for new buys, 6 months for existing.
- The amendment tightens disposal rules: no cancellation means pro-rata sales to existing shareholders only, shutting down selective deals and closing the wide-open disposal gap under current law.
- The proposal is far tougher than expected, likely to become the final version, and should drive a near-term mandatory-cancel narrative and notable price action in governance-sensitive holding-co names.
ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior
- Alibaba will announce Q2 earnings on after the market close (HK time) November 25.
- Earnings implied jump pricing is similar to the last release, but recent downside skew in past Q2 moves highlights why traders may focus more on potential weakness.
- Recent market patterns, including muted reactions to beats and sharp responses to misses, add weight to risks around Baba’s earnings day move.
Asian Equities: Secular DPS Growth Matters, Not Just Dividend Yield. Presenting Our “Asia 50”.
- While focus on dividend yield is common, we think secular growth in DPS over a long period of time is a stronger marker of robust earnings trajectory and shareholder friendliness.
- Among stocks in Asian EM and DM, we screen 50 that raised their DPS every year over the past decade – a commendable performance given earnings dislocations during this period.
- Stocks from Japan (24), HK (10), onshore China (6), India (6), Singapore (2) and Taiwan (2) make up our list. 10 are large and liquid with strong forecast EPS growth.
A Pair Trade Basket Of Korean Consumer/Leisure Stocks (Long) And Japanese Names (Short)
- In this insight, we discuss a pair trade involving a basket of Korean consumer stocks (long) and a basket of Japanese consumer stocks (short) over the next 3-6 months.
- The 10 Korean names (long basket) include Samyang Food, APR, Amorepacific Corp, Korean Air, CJ Corp, Classys, Nongshim, Shinsegae, Hotel Shilla, and Lotte Tour Development.
- The 10 Japanese names (short basket) include Fast Retailing, Oriental Land, Kao Corp, Seibu Holdings, ANA Holdings, Shiseido, J.Front Retailing, Kose Corp, Pola Orbis Holdings, and Kyoritsu Maintenance.
Chagee Holdings (CHA) Six-Month Summary: Stark Warning on Volatility, China-Based IPO Risk
- Chagee’s IPO surged early but collapsed, falling nearly 70% from its debut high amid intense market and China-based issuer volatility.
- Weak U.S. sponsorship and a sales miss triggered sustained selling pressure, pushing CHA far below its $28 issue price.
- The deal highlights 2025’s unforgiving IPO environment, where consumer and China-linked listings face sharp downside risk when momentum fades.
Tourism and Real Estate Stocks Dominate Filed Transactions Last Week
- Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks from Nov 14 to Nov 20, with a net outflow of S$131 million.
- United Overseas Bank led share buybacks, acquiring 997,700 shares at an average price of S$34.01, totaling S$58.2 million.
- Wing Tai Holdings’ Cheng Wai Keung increased his interest to 62.24%, while Banyan Tree Holdings’ Goodview Properties raised its stake to 6.06%.
The Game Has Changed Since the Era of Cross-Shareholdings
- Share buybacks peak every year in June when AGMs are held, after which the “Quiet Period” begins. Toward the fiscal year-end, buybacks are expected as a means to resolve cross-shareholdings.
- Given that the capital profitability of all TSE-listed companies hasn’t shown improvement, investors must continue to call for reducing excess cash reserves through dissolution of cross-shareholdings and the share buybacks.
- Shareholders entrust management with the responsibility to maximize shareholder interest, which includes shareholder returns and corporate value growth. It’s natural for shareholders to demand that management fulfill this fiduciary duty.
ADT Rises as a Smart-Security Juggernaut With Powerful Tech Upgrades & Market-Shifting Strategy!
- ADT’s third-quarter 2025 financial performance indicates a steady trajectory with both positive and negative elements impacting its outlook.
- The company’s financial highlights reveal a 4% increase in total revenue to $1.3 billion and a 3% growth in adjusted EBITDA to $676 million.
- Additionally, the adjusted earnings per diluted share rose by 15% year-over-year to $0.23, reflecting robust cash flow generation amounting to $709 million year-to-date.
Weekly Update (MEDXF, MAGN, LEN/MRP, MODG)
- Comcast (CMCSA) announced in late 2024 that it would spin off a bundle of its traditional U.S. cable networks and related digital properties into a new independent company, now named Versant Media Group (VSNT).
- Versant will host an analyst day on Thursday, December 4th and the spin-off is expected to take place in early 2026.
- The move is driven by the secular decline of linear TV and the “transition of our video businesses”, as Comcast’s President Michael Cavanagh described.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
