In today’s briefing:
- StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)
- [Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
- IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
- Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – General Trade in the Cross Hairs
- Listing Criteria for the TSE Growth Market Is Expected to Be Raised Starting April 2026
- LifeVantage Corporation: MindBody Back in Stock and Driving Top-Line Growth
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Jan 2025 (Forecast)
StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)
- Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high.
- Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
- The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
- In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
- There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
- The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
- With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.
Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – General Trade in the Cross Hairs
- Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) held an impromptu analyst call to address concerns over a potential sugar tax and the free milk program, both of which have yet to materialise.
- The company is making a marked push into general trade, armed with a broader range of affordable products including Yoghurt Sticks, UHT milk, and ready-to-eat sausages.
- Management remains confident about the outlook for 2025 with an ongoing recovery in dairy and an expansion into general trade, with a 10% increase in outlets covered. Top staples pick.
Listing Criteria for the TSE Growth Market Is Expected to Be Raised Starting April 2026
- TSE is likely to raise the current Growth Market listing criteria of at least 500 million yen in tradable equity market capitalization, probably starting in April 2026.
- Since listing examinations are already being conducted with the new criteria in mind, IPO reserves are being prepared with a larger market capitalization than before.
- It is unclear how much will be raised, but companies will prepare for listing by increasing its market capitalization through the use of the secondary market and M&A.
LifeVantage Corporation: MindBody Back in Stock and Driving Top-Line Growth
- LifeVantage’s initial inventory for the MindBody launch was 5x that of its last successful new product launch, which was Liquid Collagen in June 2022.
- Despite the much larger inventory build, the company sold out of MindBody in 13 days following its launch in mid-October.
By mid-December, LifeVantage was able to get additional product in and began shipping it.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Jan 2025 (Forecast)
- We expect inflation for the first half of January to be at 0.21%, again, due to an extraordinary reduction in agricultural prices.
- This fortnight, inflation is typically at 0.36% bw.
- The forecast of 0.21% bw is explained by the extraordinary reduction in agricultural products of -1.65% bw, versus the historical average of +0.48% bw.
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