Daily Brief Consumer: Tsuruha Holdings, Alibaba, WPP PLC, BYD, Geely Auto, Izumi Co Ltd, Acushnet Holdings, Minerva /Brazil, Nippon Seiki, Perdoceo Education and more

• A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.  
• At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month. 
• The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

• Alibaba (9988 HK) / Alibaba (BABA US) will announce quarterly results on Tuesday, November 25, 8:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time)
• Options markets anticipate an above average move with a bearish bias in traders’ expectations. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.
• Get ready for Alibaba‘s earnings announcement. Potential above-average volatility in Alibaba has the potential to impact the wider market and Chinese benchmark indices.

• Takeover speculation re-ignites WPP plc, with interest reportedly from Havas, Apollo, and KKR. Depressed valuation, strategic review, and FTSE ejection risk position WPP as a live event-driven opportunity.
• Valuation disconnect significant: FY2024 EV/EBITDA only 3.8× versus peers 8–10× (5.4x NTM consensus, vs. peers NTM averaging ~6.7x). Base-case bid 430–550 p implies 50–80 % upside, assuming £7.5–9.5 billion EV.
• Arbitrage setup compelling: Expected 6-month return ≈ 34 % (IRR 45 %), asymmetric 3:1 reward-to-risk profile. Key catalysts – formal bid indication, Havas/Vivendi stake-building, or private-equity consortium approach.

• Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue BYD (1211 HK) is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.
• Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.
• Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.

• Geely’s total revenue continued to grow rapidly by 26% YoY in 3Q25.
• Geely’s deliveries reached 90% of BYD’s in October of 2025.
• We conclude a price target of HK$18.50 for next 12 months, which suggests an upside of 19%.

• Izumi is joining the race to buy up more of Japan’s food and FMCG retail share. 
• Currently one of the dominant players in Kyushu, Izumi says it will use M&A to increase store numbers over the next decade.
• This will also mean pivoting more towards food rather than its traditional GMS format just like its competitors.

• We maintain our Overweight on Minerva, favoring the 2033s for superior carry-to-duration despite limited upside, supported by strong liquidity, improving leverage, and integration-driven efficiencies
• We see room for further spread compression over 9–12 months as operating conditions remain favorable, tariff mitigation continues, and synergies from acquired plants strengthen the credit profile
• Relative value remains constructive, with Minerva notes still wide to key benchmarks and peers even after tightening, while rising cattle prices and weak interest coverage remain the main risks

• Nippon Seiki is a global leader in the automotive instrument cluster and Head-Up Display (HUD) market, holding the top global market share for HUDs at approximately 30%. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the automotive industry’s shift towards digitalization and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS).
• Financially, the company has demonstrated robust growth in recent years, with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 12.26% and a net income CAGR of 47.08%. This performance is supported by strong demand in North America and ASEAN, and the easing of semiconductor shortages.
• Despite strong growth, the company faces risks associated with the cyclical nature of the automotive industry, high dependency on a few major OEM customers, and volatility in cash flow. The long-term market cap performance has been weak, suggesting historical investor concerns.

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• Perdoceo Education Corporation (PRDO) is a ~$2B market cap, for-profit education company that has seen unprecedented enrollment and retention growth across its online academic institutions, which has driven its stock price up ~200% over the last two years. 
• In Q1 24, the pace of enrollments suddenly began to accelerate, with enrollment growth at Colorado Technical University (CTU), PRDO’s largest school, peaking at 28% year-over-year.
• This growth far surpassed the normalized levels management were forecasting just one quarter prior, and well outstripped the ~3% average pre-COVID enrollment growth at CTU.