Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China Hongqiao, Gbm Resources, Yancoal Australia, Crude Oil, KNOT Offshore Partners LP, YPF SA, Diamondback Energy, Franco-Nevada , HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., Williams Cos and more

• Equity placing strengthens Hongqiao’s balance sheet, cuts refinancing risk, and supports Yunnan’s low-carbon capacity migration.
• FY25–27 forecasts updated: modest EPS dilution offset by lower interest costs and improved cash generation.
• Valuation remains discounted vs global peers despite first-quartile costs, rising renewable mix, and improving aluminium market fundamentals.

• Aussie gold and copper explorer GBM Resources (GBZ AU) has announced plans to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong.
• GBM has entered a memorandum of understanding with its major shareholder, Wise Walkers Limited, which will fund all listing-related expenses – to be repaid upon a successful listing.
• The listing is, ostensibly, to “broaden its investor base“; however Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s barnstorming IPO debut probably spurred on this development. 

• Context: The Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) vs. Woodside Energy Group (WDS AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) and short Woodside Energy Group (WDS AU) targets a 7% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Global oil outlooks diverged in November as the EIA cut demand forecasts, and the IEA lifted projections. However, both agencies expect supply to grow faster than demand.
• The EIA, IEA, and OPEC flag a rising risk of oversupply heading into 2026, noting that expanding production and already-elevated inventories could keep the market looser.
• Strong U.S. LNG exports prompted the EIA to raise its Henry Hub forecasts, signalling price strength will rely more on robust export demand than on domestic consumption this winter.

• KNOP received a $10/unit privatization offer from its general partner, trading at $9.8, with a special committee review underway.
• KNOP’s dividend was cut by 95% in 2023, despite improved charter activity and revenue growth, raising expectations for a dividend increase.
• KNOP’s closest peer, Altera Shuttle Offshore, was acquired with a valuation speculated to exceed KNOP’s current $1.3bn offer.

• We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.
• Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.
• At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.

• Diamondback Energy’s third quarter 2025 results reflect a nuanced position within the energy sector, particularly given the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties.
• The company continues to emphasize capital efficiency and conservative fiscal management, showcasing a 36% reinvestment rate with an aim to generate free cash flow over expanding cash flow operations.
• This cautious deployment of capital aligns with their broader strategy of maintaining financial flexibility and a low cost structure amidst a volatile oil price environment.

• Franco-Nevada Corporation reported record financial results in the third quarter of 2025, driven primarily by high gold prices, strong operational performance, strategic acquisitions, and the sale of Cobre Panama stockpiles.
• The financial metrics were robust, with total Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs) sold increasing by 26% year-overyear, and adjusted EBITDA rising by 81% to reach $427.3 million.
• Revenue rose by 77% to $487.7 million, with 85% being derived from precious metals.

HELLENiQ ENERGY delivered record sales volumes in the Refining business of 4.3Mt and a strong year-on-year and sequential improvement in Refining adjusted EBITDA to €264m in Q3. Realised refining margins improved to $17.2/bbl, from $13.8/bbl in Q225, and up from $10.9/bbl during Q324. Q325 group adjusted EBITDA doubled year-on-year to €365m, driven by improved uptime post the Elefsina turnaround, the stronger refining margins and robust international sales. The Marketing business reported record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of €68m, supported by volume growth in both domestic and regional markets, continued network footprint optimisation and improved operational efficiency. This was also the first quarter of full consolidation of Enerwave (formerly ELPEDISON). Group adjusted net income reached €186m and an interim dividend of €0.20 per share was declared.

• The Williams Companies has demonstrated a strong blend of strategic ventures and consistent growth in its recent operational and financial performance.
• On the operational front, The Williams Companies has successfully brought several key projects online, significantly increasing its infrastructure capacity.
• Noteworthy accomplishments include the completion of transmission projects such as the Northwest Pipeline’s Stanfield South project and multiple expansions within the Transco infrastructure, enhancing their daily natural gas capacity by nearly 200,000 dekatherms.