In today’s briefing:
- MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete, Float, Capping = Big Impact
- MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover
- Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 October
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest/Newmont, Dic Corp, Golden Eagle, Mason, MPIC
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete, Float, Capping = Big Impact
- There is one add, one delete, one listing change, plus float and capping changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 6.1% and that results in a one-way trade of US$240m. There are 31 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- There will be some same way and some opposite flows between the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and S&P/ASX 200 (AS51) trackers at the close on 15 September.
MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover
- There is one add and two deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the September rebalance. Plus there are free float and capping changes.
- One way turnover is estimated at 11.1% and will result in a one-way trade of US$58m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5 days of ADV to trade.
- The inclusion of Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and deletion of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799 CH) are surprises.
Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 October
- Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)‘s IE considers Newmont Mining (NEM US)’s offer of 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + special dividend + FY2023 dividend to be reasonable but not fair.
- The IE valued Newcrest at US$18.64-21.13 per share vs. the transaction value of US$17.10-18.70 per share. The sharp sector de-rating, including Newmont’s shares, has impacted the scrip-heavy offer.
- The offer remains attractive compared to peer multiples, historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios. At the last close prices and for the 6 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/7.8%.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest/Newmont, Dic Corp, Golden Eagle, Mason, MPIC
- I tally 50 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals this week: the Tender Offer for Dic Corp (4631 JP) and the Partial Offer for Intage Holdings (4326 JP).
- Key updates took place for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), and Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM).
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