Daily BriefsEquity Bottom-Up

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Wins Major U.S. Support; Nanya Results; UMC Rush Orders and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Wins Major U.S. Support; Nanya Results; UMC Rush Orders
  • [#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook
  • China Pair Trade Idea: Long Air China (753 HK), Short CSA (1055 HK)
  • Unilever (ULVR) To Separate Its Ice Cream Business
  • 10 in 10 – All about Singapore Depository Receipts (SDRs)
  • TAL Education Group: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Real Business Strategy And What Is The Impact Of AI On Its Business? – Major Drivers
  • Full Report – Golf Digest Online (3319 JP)
  • Cardonomics
  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The Geopolitical Factors Influencing Coal Markets? – Major Drivers
  • Masimo Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion into Hearables and Wearables Market! – Major Drivers


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Wins Major U.S. Support; Nanya Results; UMC Rush Orders

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab. 
  • Memory Monitor: Nanya’s Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising 
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Some Rush Orders Coming in and 2Q24F Could Post Positive QoQ. 

[#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Market momentum continues to be strong. As we head into earnings season, the momentum is likely to continue.
  • Strong operational updates Info Edge India (INFOE IN); Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) & Sula Vineyards (SULA IN).  
  • The overall market sentiment, represented by the average revisions across all sectors, is nearly flat, with a slight positive revision for FY1E at 0.02% and essentially stable for FY2E.

China Pair Trade Idea: Long Air China (753 HK), Short CSA (1055 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) had 15.4% interest-bearing debt denominated in USD, vs. 21.3% for China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), making it less exposed to Rmb depreciation. 
  • Recovery of international traffic and routes will help to lower unit costs. Air China’s unit costs for FY23 were Rmb4.0445, whereas CSA’s were only Rmb3.2000.
  • There is more upside for Air China’s load factor which was down 7.8pp YoY in FY23, compared with -4.7pp for CSA. 

Unilever (ULVR) To Separate Its Ice Cream Business

By Garvit Bhandari

  • Unilever announced plans to separate its ice cream business into a separate publicly listed company (SpinCo), potentially via a spin-off transaction.
  • Post separation, Unilever will focus on four core businesses: beauty and wellbeing, personal care, home care, and nutrition. The separation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025.
  • The separation will allow Unilever to allocate capital and resources more efficiently towards higher growth categories with significant potential to scale.

10 in 10 – All about Singapore Depository Receipts (SDRs)

By Geoff Howie

10 in 10 – All about Singapore Depository Receipts (SDRs)

TAL Education Group: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Real Business Strategy And What Is The Impact Of AI On Its Business? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TAL Education Group (TAL) reported net revenues of USD 373.5 million for its third quarter fiscal year 2024, exhibiting an increase of 60.5% and 63.7% in U.S. dollar and RMB terms.
  • Despite the impressive revenue growth, profitability remained a concern with non-GAAP loss from operations and non-GAAP net loss attributable to TAL amounting to USD 10.2 million and USD 1.9 million, respectively.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Full Report – Golf Digest Online (3319 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On the surface, FY23/12 consolidated OP -68% YoY, profit ATOP -53%, and FY24/12 initial guidance for a profit ATOP net loss may appear to indicate a challenging earnings environment.
  • However, closer examination reveals steady earnings improvement, and the new MTP through FY26/12 targets recouping major overseas growth investments.
  • The table below shows sequential improvement in the amount change YoY for Group EBITDA, OP and profit ATOP every quarter, with profits at all 9 levels posting YoY gains in the 4Q.

Cardonomics

By The Mikro Kap

  • Given that it has already been 6 months since I first bought Card Factory and the stock is currently trading only slightly above my average purchase price, I decided to send you guys a short and sweet thesis on why I believe $CARD.L is an attractive opportunity.
  • Card Factory is a greeting card and other “celebration essentials” retailer operating primarily in the UK.
  • What is unique about the Northern Europeans, particularly the British, is their habit of buying greeting cards. It is ingrained in their culture

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The Geopolitical Factors Influencing Coal Markets? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources, a supplier of metallurgical products for the steel industry, closed its fourth quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $266 million and achieved over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the year.
  • This is the second consecutive year in which the company attained such a milestone despite facing considerable challenges during the year.
  • Alpha highlighted the robustness of its management approach which included proactive identification of issues and proactive response plans that ensured minimal impact on performance.

Masimo Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion into Hearables and Wearables Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Masimo Corporation had a mixed Q4 and fiscal year 2023 earnings call, reporting both positive results and some challenges.
  • The company generated over $2 billion in consolidated revenues, with healthcare revenues reaching $1.28 billion.
  • In addition, Masimo saw strong growth in its hearables business and reported a record number of contract wins.

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