In today’s briefing:
- Another Passive Flow Trading Target Identified: Sejin Heavy in the Dec Shipbuilding ETF Rebal
- The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
- Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Boyu’s Unconditional Offer Set to Open
- Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical
Another Passive Flow Trading Target Identified: Sejin Heavy in the Dec Shipbuilding ETF Rebal
- HHI–Mipo merger overlaps Dec review: Mipo dropped Nov 26, desk holds cash, rebal Dec 12, new HHI shares list Dec 15 but capped at 10%.
- No ad-hoc replacement for Mipo Nov 26; Dec review will add a new name, likely Sejin Heavy (075580 KS), with no other significant flows flagged.
- Sejin Heavy’s recent post-rally volume cools; passive inflow ~1.5x DTV may trigger visible price action, with potential front-running 1–2 days ahead of Dec 12 ETF rebal.
The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
- Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
- The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
- Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed.
Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Boyu’s Unconditional Offer Set to Open
- On 19 September, Boyu completed the auction share transfer to take its Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) shareholding to 55.91% of outstanding shares.
- Pursuant to Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code, Boyu is required to make a mandatory unconditional general offer at HK$6.67. The offer should open by 26 September.
- The offer price is unattractive, suggesting a low chance of breaching the public float requirements (23.4% of outstanding shares). At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 0.9%/10.0%.
Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
- KKR’s lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It’s not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
- Abu Dhabis’ ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical
- I tally 37 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
- No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) and Emeco Holdings (EHL AU) appear to be in the crosshairs.
- Key updates/news took place on SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Soft99 (4464 JP), and Ci Medical (3540 JP).
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