In today’s briefing:
- Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
- [Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?
- Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Abacus Storage, Gold Road, PointsBet, Smart Share, Apiam, Lynch
- Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra
Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
- Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
- The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price.
- The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative.
[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?
- Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be “low” – likely 4-6% of Sony’s price.
- Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider’s set of large-midcap indices.
- There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager “I don’t want this” overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.
Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender
- Minister Jin, Busan’s sole ruling-party lawmaker, gives his out-of-the-blue remarks significant political weight, making the local-government HMM stake plan materially more likely than mere weekend chatter.
- Fresh newsflow shifts the tender hedge narrative: Jin’s remark likely nudges KOBC toward skipping, while KDB is locked in.
- KOBC’s tender decision and Jin’s remarks could flip post-tender bias, raising hedge difficulty; a cautious approach is needed, monitoring price action and exposure risk before stepping in.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Abacus Storage, Gold Road, PointsBet, Smart Share, Apiam, Lynch
- I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
- Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU) and Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU).
- Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), and Smart Share Global (EM US).
Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra
- Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) in the market or tender.
- Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.
- Wilmar International (WIL SP) appears “cheap” to 90%-held Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH); however recent implied stub figures have rolled over
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