In today’s briefing:
- FEFTA Classification Changes Summer 2025
- Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So
- Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em
- Hanon Systems Announces a Major Potential Rights Offering
- Real-Time Read on Korea’s Top Market Narrative — Tax Reform Play
- Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s NBIO
- BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again
- Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August ’25 Report
FEFTA Classification Changes Summer 2025
- The Ministry of Finance has published an updated “FEFTA List” of classifications of listed companies as of July 15, 2025.
- 50 names lowered their ranks from the most “core” Type 3 to Type 2(20), or Type 1(30). 104 names raised from Type 1(51) or Type 2(53) to Type 3.
- Smartkarma readers may want to peruse the lists and details to see if they think companies are trying to protect themselves (from threats as yet not known by the public).
Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So
- Nearly seven months after receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer had been entered into.
- The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, made an Offer of US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
- Now Hillhouse has thrown its hat into the ring with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. Smart Share’s special committee of independent directors should engage.
Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup
- KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.
- Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.
- Spread >10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em
- On 17 May, Cosette asserted that a material adverse change had occurred. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disputes the claim with court proceedings set to start on 22 September.
- Mayne’s FY25 results on 29 August should provide incremental clarity, but not a definite answer, on the MAC breach relating to maintainable EBITDA (decline by at least A$10.76 million).
- The outcome of the trial remains uncertain as both Mayne and Cosette have valid arguments. Risk/reward is attractive – upside (43.1% to offer) vs the downside (22.3% to deal-break price).
Hanon Systems Announces a Major Potential Rights Offering
- On 14 August, Hanon Systems (018880 KS) announced a potential rights offering capital raise. The exact amount will be finalized at the EGM next month.
- The significant size of the rights offering is expected to burden its largest shareholder Hankook Tire & Technology (161390 KS) which owns a 54.8% stake in Hanon Systems.
- We believe the potential rights offering is likely to continue to negatively impact Hanon Systems by diluting its existing shareholders.
Real-Time Read on Korea’s Top Market Narrative — Tax Reform Play
- Even the revised draft is facing possible first-ever presidential non-approval, which acts like a de facto veto between Cabinet approval and National Assembly submission.
- The admin aims to make stocks outperform real estate, with a dividend tax cut under separate taxation as the key lever, fully recognized by the Presidential Office.
- Local markets are pulling back on Presidential Office delays, but signals point to a clear reform direction — time to build mid-term positions in banks and holdcos.
Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s NBIO
- Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Australia’s largest rural and regional veterinary group, has announced a non-binding indicative Offer from PE outfit Adamantem Capital.
- Adamantem is offering A$0.88/share, a 64.5% premium to last close. If terms are firmed, shareholders will also be afforded a partial scrip option into an unlisted bidco.
- Adamantem has also entered into a call option for 19.9% of shares out at A$0.88/share. An independent board committee are assessing the approach. Due diligence not yet granted.
BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again
- BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA’s rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.
- Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain’s three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.
- Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August ’25 Report
- MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.
- Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.
- Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.
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