In today’s briefing:
- GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL
- [Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal
- Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified
- Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (1396 HK): This Doesn’t Add Up
- DD Group (3073 JP): Polaris Capital-Sponsored MBO Is Light
- Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s Revised NBIO Faces a Daunting Challenge
- Merger and Acquisition Updates: GLXZ, OCFT, ASLI:L, and CPPTL’s Strategic Developments
- BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening
GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL
- GMO Internet (4784 JP) was squeezed after a merger which was a Reverse Takeover followed by a ridiculous TOPIX inclusion. Then the parent tried an offering, which failed.
- The clearing price demanded was WAAAY lower so the offering was pulled. Shares fell 70%, then bounced 65%. Now 48x book and 66x EBITDA for an ISP. Super expensive. Manipulated.
- ParentCo needs to sell 90mm shares ASAP. The only clean way is through a liquidation trust to get shares lower before a larger offering.
[Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal
- Diamond Dining (3073 JP) (DD Group) head Matsumura-san appears to be getting out in this Polaris MBO for the dining group.
- The premium is low, and the the price is probably light, but there are a couple of small things which mean it isn’t quite as light as it might look.
- But the company prints cash, so yeah, it’s light. This should probably be a bit better, but F&B is a fickle business.
Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified
- Daily buyback flow data for Samsung (ord + pref) since last Nov compiled — Excel file attached below.
- Started with ~1M/day (for ord), ramped up at 20–30%, then tapered post-60% — same playbook in both legs, with the second showing even more methodical, steady pacing.
- Price action tracked buyback flow closely — especially in leg 2, where the mid-heavy-light volume pattern showed strong consistency.
Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (1396 HK): This Doesn’t Add Up
- Property developer Guangdong – Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Holdings (1396 HK) (GHKGBA) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
- GHKGBA, previously known as Hydoo, was subject to an unconditional MGO in 2019 after China Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (CGHKGBA) acquired a 51.56%. CGHKGBA currently holds a 50.94% stake
- At a guess, CGHKGBA will seek to take GHKGBA private by way of a Scheme. The rub/pushback? GHKGBA’s share price is up 2,383% YTD. And trailing P/B is ~7x.
DD Group (3073 JP): Polaris Capital-Sponsored MBO Is Light
- Diamond Dining (3073 JP) has recommended a Polaris Capital-sponsored MBO at JPY1,700, a 17.8% premium to the last close price.
- The offer is light and is 16% below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The process was lacking as there was no auction.
- DD has no recent history of activism. Therefore, the likelihood of a bump is low unless there is vocal opposition or an activist becomes a substantial shareholder.
Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s Revised NBIO Faces a Daunting Challenge
- Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US) at A$1.65 per unit, a 14.7% premium to its previously rejected offer.
- The Board will grant six weeks of due diligence. While below NTA (implies P/NTA of 0.95x), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
- The consortium will likely need to switch to a takeover offer as National Storage REIT (NSR AU), which holds effectively a blocking stake, is unlikely to vote in favour.
Merger and Acquisition Updates: GLXZ, OCFT, ASLI:L, and CPPTL’s Strategic Developments
- Galaxy Gaming (GLXZ) merger with Evolution AB is pending gaming regulatory review, with a 14% spread remaining.
- OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT) secured antitrust approval from SAMR for Ping An takeover, narrowing spread to 5%.
- abrdn European Logistics Income (ASLI:L) sold two warehouses at a premium, with further asset sales in advanced discussions.
BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening
- BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.
- Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.
- A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.
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