In today’s briefing:
- Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup
- Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades
- [Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book
- Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues
- Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH
- Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
- SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush
- NLOP Update; Liquidation on Track
Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup
- Hunting the reversion point for Square-Hynix price ratio amid local buzz: need clear pro-business tax signals and Hynix’s downtrend to continue despite today’s bounce.
- Tax tweak likely turns neutral despite gov’s cautious tone today. Hynix’s bounce faces headwinds from supply ramp and yield issues, so fresh rally odds remain slim.
- Focus on hunting SK Square vs. Hynix price ratio reversion, pairing it with Samsung Long/Hynix Short for a strong short-term trade setup to ride the trend.
Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades
- KCMC 2025 will likely reveal fresh, unpriced stimulus details, potentially sparking a price rally like last year’s 2% KOSPI 200 jump on the value-up ETF rollout.
- The key wildcard at KCMC 2025 is dividends—shifting from Yoon’s Japan-style ROE grind to a Taiwan-style push for bigger shareholder payouts.
- With Sept 29 approaching, dividend policy buzz may drive price moves—smart to prep dividend momentum trades to front-run this catalyst.
[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is buying out its own equity affiliate Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at a near-all-time high price of ¥4,140/share.
- It’s not a great price, but it is just over 1x book after writedowns this past quarter. It basically requires cross-holders and half a retail to tender.
- But this autoparts business is a strong grower, and has no EV risk. And its non-autoparts business is more interesting. The “fair” multiples are low. But it’ll get done.
Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price
- PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.
- KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.
- The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues
- AH premia down, bouncing back. “Beautiful Skew” continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile – often the sign of significant distribution changes.
- The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer
- Kolon Corp (002020 KS)(KC) is seeking to delist 75.23%-held Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS) (KM), an auto importer.
- Via a dual approach, KC is offering ₩4,000 per KM common share and ₩5,950 per KM preferred share. Any untendered shares will be swapped into KC shares.
- The tender offer period is from 8th August to 8th September, with payment on the 10th September. There is no minimum acceptance condition.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.
- Last week’s reco was Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
- On 7 August, Bloomberg reported that Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP) is considering going private and has received acquisition proposals from several investment funds.
- Privatisation is a neat solution for the Board to get rid of a potentially problematic activist shareholder, Yukihiro Nomura, the son-in-law of Yoshiaki Murakami.
- PE interest is underpinned by Yomeishu’s net cash and significant real estate assets. However, the shares are up 63% YTD, which leaves little room for additional upside. Take profits.
SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush
- Context:SoftBank’s (9984 JP) Q1 results on 7 August delivered a return to profitability and earnings beat, fueling one of the stock’s biggest post-results rallies in 15 years.
- Highlight: Shares jumped 10.4% on 8 August and nearly 20% week-on-week, with implied volatility staying elevated above 40% despite the surge.
- Why Read: Review price action and options market response, showing how SoftBank’s post-earnings volatility pattern echoes past announcements. Serves as a documented reference for the next earnings event.
NLOP Update; Liquidation on Track
NLOP just declared a $3.10 special dividend, funded by cash from asset sales.
The company has zero recourse debt, $78M cash, and continues to sell properties well above the market’s implied valuation.
In Q2, NLOP sold a vacant building for $81/sf and a JPMorgan-leased asset for $143/sf at a 12.1% cap rate.
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