In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1
- Great Eastern (GE SP): SGX The Winner As Shareholders Block Exit Offer
- Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory
- Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play
- [Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More
- Industrivärden’s H1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication
[Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1
- Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
- The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question.
- But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.
Great Eastern (GE SP): SGX The Winner As Shareholders Block Exit Offer
- After OCBC bumped terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) to $30.15/share via an Exit Offer, I wasn’t confident a 17.8% bump would dislodge Palliser. That appears the case.
- At today’s EGM, 63.49% of minority shareholders – OCBC abstained – were in favour on the Offer, falling short of the 75% condition. There was no blocking % condition.
- Shareholders voted for the resumption of shares via the issuance of shares (one-for-one bonus), satisfying the SGX free float requirement. The SGX, and dissenters, will be happy with the outcome.
Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory
- The Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) delisting resolution failed as it was not approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders.
- The resumption of trading resolutions to restore the 10% free float requirement was passed. Trading will resume once the 10% free float requirement is met.
- Minorities have secured a pyrrhic victory as the OCBC (OCBC SP) offer was light, but there is no obvious catalyst to re-rate the shares. Deal break price around S$21.49.
Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play
- If stock comp stays all in commons like last time, cancellation hits ~1.40% of SO in commons, 1.72% in prefs — setting up preferreds for relative outperformance.
- If they cancel the full pool, Samsung Life + Fire’s stake hits 10.14%, forcing a ₩500B block — nearly 2x the ₩280B print back in Feb.
- Again, odds are the overage hits the tape again — watch for a potential block print before the third leg wraps, like what played out in Feb.
[Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More
- Several Japanese companies jumped onto the OBaaBM/TABaaBM (Own/Talk-About-Bitcoin-as-a-Business Model) last fall to this spring as Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) shares went up and bitcoin did too.
- Yesterday, resin coating/injection molding product maker Ikuyo Co Ltd (7273 JP) announced an M&A Policy, and a Shareholder Benefits Program where shareholders will “win” amounts of bitcoin by lottery.
- Ikuyo expects revenues +955% this year. Details are sparse. The shareholder structure has red flags. The CEO sold himself half the company in Feb for peanuts. Forewarned. But it’s interesting.
Industrivärden’s H1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication
- Industrivärden’s NAV reached SEK 165.6 billion in H1 2025, up 4%, while C shares delivered a flat return and now trade at a 9.7% discount to NAV—below historical levels.
- The portfolio is highly concentrated, with 91% of NAV in five stocks: Volvo, Sandvik, Handelsbanken, Essity, and SCA—making it easily replicable but sensitive to industrial sector cycles.
- Management costs remain ultra-low at 0.08% of AUM, while net debt is just 2% of the portfolio. Credit quality is strong (A+/Stable), and dividends from holdings totaled SEK 9.4 billion.
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