Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A/Activism] Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) Minimum Lower and more

• In August, Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) announced a deal for Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at 1.000x book value after writedowns. That was not a coincidence.
• The takeover is cheap for what it is. No synergies were counted. But it wasn’t truly offensive. MURAKAMI Takateru aimed an activist broadside, bought 19.73% across four entities. Then stopped. 
• The Bidder lowered the Tender Offer Minimum from 2.3081mm shares (38.29%) to 1.8001mm shares (29.86%). Shares dropped. As of 24-Sep, 2,111,226 shares had been tendered. This looks done. Maybe. 

• Last week, London-based activist Palliser Capital tapped LG Chem (051910 KS) to remedy its NAV market discount. Palliser also said it now holds a little over 1% in LG Chem.
• LG Chem’s large NAV discount is well known. It has been present since ~82%-held LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) was listed in January 2022. 
• An obvious solution is to pare down the LGES stake, and buy back shares. Yet the discount remains as the market views management as being (stubbornly) set in their ways.

• HMC buyback ~₩0.8–1.0tn (~1.5% SO). Street focus is ord/pref split, with prefs at ~25% discount. Mgmt urgency: lift equity value as K‑market rallies.
• Narrowing the pref gap seen as the cleanest lever—shareholder‑friendly signal, draws real money/offshore flows, de‑risks policy optics—so locals expect the first buyback leg skewed to prefs.
• Street sees HMC aiming mid‑teens pref discount via year‑end pref‑heavy buyback and dividend tax reform. Catalysts make narrowing trend look achievable.

• Comcast’s planned spin-off of Versant Media creates two sharper investment profiles – broadband and infrastructure (Comcast ex-Versant) versus content and networks (Versant) – enabling clearer strategic focus and capital discipline.
• Post-Spin, Comcast retains $117B revenue and 30% margins, while Versant will have $7B media portfolio with 40% EBITDA margins.
• Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation assigns 6.0× to Comcast and 8.4× to Versant, implying combined equity value of $146.5B, or $39 per share.

• Honeywell will complete the tax-free spin-off of its Advanced Materials division as Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. (Nasdaq: SOLS) on October 30, 2025.
• We value HON(ex-SOLS) at $228/share on a SOTP basis. We value Solstice at $60/share based on 10.9× FY2026E EBITDA of $1.0B, implying ~31% upside to the when-issued price of $45.75
• SOLS has greater upside potential at current levels. Given its smaller market capitalization, index rebalancing flows post-listing could trigger near-term technical selling pressure, which may provide even better entry point.

I had a chance to talk to the management team from High Arctic Overseas this week, and I came away encouraged.

The stock is trading at a negative enterprise value, but we are seeing signs of stability in the business and a potential upward inflection.

The management team is entrepreneurial and working to cut its cash burn down to zero. 

• Before I get into my regular update, I want to flag one chart that caught my eye.
• The chart below shows that margins have held in there in the face tariffs. This is somewhat surprising to me.
• This week was relatively quiet on the open-recommendations front, but I expect the news flow to pick up in the coming weeks as earnings season gets underway

• De Beers sale shows competitive tension: Endiama bid vs Botswana match rights; potential $2.5–4bn proceeds improve Anglo’s simplification and special-dividend optics.
• Votes: circular early/mid-Nov; same-day early-Dec. Teck-B 66⅔% remains higher-beta; interloper low pre-vote, very low post-vote.
• Spread: AAL 2,832p; TECK C$58.50; GBPCAD 1.86685 → implied TECK C$70.32; ~16.7% discount (~20.1% upside). Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged.

• EU clearance confirmed 27 Oct 2025; seven of ten jurisdictions approved. Remaining reviews in Brazil, Mexico, and China progress. Management now targets Q1 2026 completion, extending earlier Q4 2025 timeline.
• Implied offer value 85.8 p (AXL $6.49; GBP/USD 1.3313) vs DWL 83 p yields 3.4 % spread, or ~7–10 % annualised return under the revised Q1 2026 closing guidance.
• Funding and shareholder approvals complete; deal risk remains low and primarily timing-related. Residual focus on SAMR clearance and FX/AXL volatility driving daily implied consideration.