In today’s briefing:
- Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here?
- Acquisition of SK D&D by Hahn & Co + Tender Offer and Delisting Plans
- Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here?
- As Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s share price defies gravity, so does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)‘s.
- Full disclosure: I misread the room. I thought Zijin Gold was fully priced at HK$71.59/share. As was Zijin Mining. Zijin Gold is now up 92% and Zijin Mining 20%.
- Zijin Gold currently trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples.
Acquisition of SK D&D by Hahn & Co + Tender Offer and Delisting Plans
- On 1 October, it was reported in the local media that Hahn & Co (is acquiring the management rights of SK D&D Co Ltd (210980 KS).
- This tender offer is not likely to be successful. Less than 1/3 of the 6.96 million shares that are up for tender offer could be sold by the existing shareholders.
- We believe that the majority of the remaining investors in SK D&D want higher tender offer price.
Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread
- The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.
- Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.
- Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.
Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report FY 2025 results on Thursday, 9 October 2025. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.
- Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2–9%, with announcement-day beta vs. the Nikkei 225 more than doubling. Despite illiquidity, options imply a ±4.7% swing — in line with history.
- Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.
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