Daily Brief Financials: Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing, Keppel Infrastructure Trust, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banco do Brasil, Seatrium, Goldman Sachs Group, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, Canary PEPE ETF, Logistic Properties of The Americas and more

• PRC-Focused financial leasing play Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK)  (HUIFL) is suspended pursuant to Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
• Expect a privatisation Offer from Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK), currently holding an 85% stake. Guotai Haitong is presently in the midst of taking Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) private.
• As HUIFL is PRC-incorporated, this Offer may be structured as a Merger by Absorption, involving a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. There may, or may not be, a tendering condition.

• Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK) halted trading on 5 October pending a takeover announcement. Its parent, Guotai Haitong Securities, owns 85% and will likely take it private.
• A merger by absorption looks low-risk because no holder has a blocking stake and opposition at the AGM was negligible. A voluntary/delisting offer would face a tougher 90% acceptance hurdle.
• My valuation methods point to an offer of HK$1.29–1.65 per share, a 7.5%–37.5% premium to the HK$1.20 close. 

• Debt Wall Squeeze: Rising rates and maturing low-cost debt will crush distributable income as SGD 3.28 bn in leverage and expensive perpetual securities face imminent yield resets.
• Terminal Value Erosion: Core legacy assets like Senoko Waste-to-Energy and SingSpring Desalination face looming contractual run-offs, fundamentally destroying the portfolio’s base cash-generation capacity.
• Chronic Dilution Cycle: Management’s reliance on heavily discounted equity placements to fund replacement acquisitions has systematically destroyed Unitholder value, shrinking net asset value per unit by 40%.

• Intesa has raised its offer to €11.375/share, only 0.9% above MPS, while making approval of the BAMI/BGN plan incompatible with its bid.
• Delfin’s 17.6% Backing strengthens Intesa ahead of the 29 October vote, but Lovaglio still offers shareholders exposure to further consolidation upside.
• Our probability-weighted value is €11.64/share, 3.2% above spot; upside beyond Intesa comes from a further sweetener or the MPS-led strategy.

• Flavio Bolsonaro’s win in the first round of the Presidential election in Brazil greatly increases the chance of a Bolsonaro win in the second round
• Flavio Bolsonaro is perceived to be more business and market-friendly than the left-wing incumbent Lula, and in the banks space we focus on the majority federal government-owned Banco do Brasil
• We upgrade deep-value Banco do Brasil to a buy, as a Bolsonaro win would imply less federal government interference in the bank’s operations, and potential for improved returns going forward

• In 9M26, 80 SGX primary-listed companies repurchased S$2.38 billion of shares, surpassing 2025’s S$2.23 billion total.
• Singtel and Keppel led 9M26 buybacks with S$1.05 billion and S$365 million, representing 59% of total consideration.
• Seatrium launched a new S$200 million buyback programme after fully utilising a previous S$100 million programme.

• Premier Global Investment Banking Franchise: Goldman Sachs maintains undisputed global leadership across M&A advisory, equity and debt underwriting, and institutional market making, bolstered by an ongoing strategic pivot toward higher-margin, capital-light Asset & Wealth Management (AWM).
• Accelerating Profitability and Margin Expansion: Operating performance has inflected sharply, with net margins expanding from 7.84% in FY23 to 13.61% in FY25 and reaching 17.25% in 2Q26, driven by a cyclical rebound in capital markets deal flow, robust trading velocity, and disciplined non-compensation expense control.
• Substantial Capital Generation and Shareholder Return: Bolstered by a 19.52% 3-year EPS CAGR, the group continues to deliver superior shareholder distributions, highlighted by an annualized dividend run-rate of $18.00 per share (2.24% yield) alongside consistent share repurchase programs.

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• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) has corrected 11% in the last few weeks, but its most significant last peak was in August 2025. 
• The main hypothesis of this insight is that the stock may offer a short-term asymmetric LONG opportunity, to profit from a counter rally.
• Analysis conducted with out quantitative model show that last week’s correction was shallow so the stock could go lower, but it should be bottoming soon. Broader consensus: strong buy.

• Meme coin ETF wrappers face structural demand constraints: The core audience for meme coins is on-chain, leverage-seeking retail, whereas traditional spot ETF wrappers appeal only to a narrow sliver of wealth-managed or retirement capital.
• The niche digital asset ETF market is consolidating rapidly around dominant players: As evidenced by the liquidation of the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF (BWOW) on October 14, 2026, smaller spot products struggle to build organic seed capital without pre-existing trust conversions, leaving Grayscale’s GDOG with an 81% market share.
• Standalone unit economics are highly unfavorable for minor altcoin sponsors: At fee levels of 0.34% to 0.35%, an ETF requires over $50 million in AUM to break even against custodial, Cboe listing, legal, and operational overhead, forcing sponsors to subsidize these vehicles using broader multi-asset suites.