In today’s briefing:
- [JAPAN M&A] Shionogi (4507) Bids for Torii Pharma (4551) – Split Price Deal on Weak Transparency
- Torii Pharma (4551 JP): Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) JPY6,350 Tender Offer
- Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine H Share Listing (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Biogen, Inc. – Steady as She Goes as the Ship Continues to Turn Slowly
- Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Premium Kits Carry It Through, Recovery in Sight in H2FY26
- Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 30/04/2025
- Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Updated Thoughts on A/H Premium
- TELO: Tests Show Positive Cell Damage Repair Ability
- HCA Healthcare: An Insight Into The Labor Market Dynamics & Wage Trends & Vital Factors Driving Growth!
- Avantor’s Bioprocessing Boom: Is This Billion Dollar Platform The Key To Outsized Growth?
[JAPAN M&A] Shionogi (4507) Bids for Torii Pharma (4551) – Split Price Deal on Weak Transparency
- Today after the close, Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) and Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP) announced an agreed deal whereby Shionogi would launch a Tender Offer to take over Torii.
- Torii Pharmaceutical shares rallied sharply after earnings so the actual TOB Price of ¥6,350/share is not a particularly high premium vs undisturbed. Valuation transparency is limited. Synergies are not included.
- But the price is an ATH, the company is heavily de-levered (so a 23% premium to undisturbed is decent) and the minimum threshold is not high.
Torii Pharma (4551 JP): Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) JPY6,350 Tender Offer
- Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) at JPY6,350 per share, a 13.8% premium to the last close.
- Despite the lack of an auction and low takeover premium, the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples and represents an all-time high.
- Japan Tobacco (2914 JP), the controlling shareholder, has provided an irrevocable. The required minority acceptance rate is achievable as the offer is reasonable.
Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine H Share Listing (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Hengrui’s high growth in 2024/25Q1 mainly relies on the realization of BD cooperation. The short-term performance improvement cannot conceal the long-term pressure. The turning point of endogenous growth hasn’t arrived.
- Hengrui would continue to be affected by VBP. The generic drug business is “outdated”, whose valuation contribution is negligible. The BD model will lead to significant fluctuations in performance.
- Our forecast is net profit YoY growth in 2025-2027 would fall back to 15-20%. Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene and Hansoh in Hong Kong stock market.
Biogen, Inc. – Steady as She Goes as the Ship Continues to Turn Slowly
- 2025 guidance reaffirmed despite better-than- expected 1Q25 revenues.
- Despite beating expectations with a 6% Y/Y growth in reported revenues to $2.4B (8% Y/Y growth on a constant currency basis) for 1Q25, Biogen nevertheless maintained its full year revenue guidance for a mid-single digit drop in constant currency (CC) revenues, which will make it the sixth consecutive year of revenue decline for the company.
- Although Biogen lowered its 2025 non-GAAP EPS guidance range to $14.50-$15.50 from the previous range of $15.25- $16.25, this negative revision is not a sign of unanticipated business deterioration.
Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Premium Kits Carry It Through, Recovery in Sight in H2FY26
- Hogy Medical (3593 JP) reported flat sales of ¥39.1B in FY25. However, sales from Premium kits rose 18%. Surgical kits category contributed 66% of total revenue.
- Higher costs dented operating margin by 100 bps while net profit declined 46% YoY to ¥1.5B due to higher tax outgo.
- The company guided FY26 sales to grow 7% to ¥41.8B, with profits also expected to witness mid to high single digit growth.
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 30/04/2025
- Aptamer Group o.325p £6.47m (APTA.L) The developer of next-generation synthetic binders delivering innovation to the life science industry has entered into a global licensing agreement with the University of Glasgow.
- The Agreement is for the commercial use of its Optimer binders as vaccine adjuvants in the swine health sector.
- The University will lead product development; commercialisation is anticipated within the next 12 months.
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Updated Thoughts on A/H Premium
- Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) (JHP), a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
- JHP has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
- We have looked at the past performance and other dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates and provide our thoughts on the A/H premium.
TELO: Tests Show Positive Cell Damage Repair Ability
- Telomir Pharmaceuticals is a preclinical stage company focused on the science of lengthening telomere caps, which the company believes will extend human lifespans and improve quality of life as people age.
- The company released test results that showed Telomir-1 reverses multiple signs of cellular decline across human cell lines.
- This provides a foundation for the company to pursue treatments of autism and spasmodic dysphonia.
HCA Healthcare: An Insight Into The Labor Market Dynamics & Wage Trends & Vital Factors Driving Growth!
- HCA Healthcare’s recent earnings call for Q1 2025 presents a nuanced picture of the company’s performance and strategic position.
- The company recorded strong financial results based on consistent volume growth, an improved payer mix, and increased operating margin.
- Diluted earnings per share also saw a notable 20% increase, reaching $6.45.
Avantor’s Bioprocessing Boom: Is This Billion Dollar Platform The Key To Outsized Growth?
- Avantor’s first-quarter 2025 earnings results reveal both challenges and strategic initiatives that frame a complex investment landscape for the company.
- Avantor reported an organic revenue decline of 2% year-over-year, signaling underperformance primarily within its Lab Solutions segment.
- Despite this, the company managed to maintain an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17%, a 20 basis point increase from the prior year.
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