In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Offering] CKD (6407 JP) Sees Banks and an Insurer Sell; Buyback but Index Selling Offsets
- After They Were Giants: Why 2000’s High-Return Stocks Mostly Lagged for 25 Years
- Aequitas: Sigenergy IPO Lockup – >US$200m Cornerstone Shares to Be Unlocked
- Xin Yuan (1748 HK): Resumption Likely, Min Acceptance Condition a Coin Toss for Liu’s HK$2.21 VGO
- DTS IPO Valuation Analysis
- Primer: P-DUKE Technology (8109 TT) – Oct 2026
- India Small And Micro Cap Compounders: High ROCE, Profitable Growth, Outsized Shareholder Returns
- Primer: Exxaro Tiles (EXXARO IN) – Oct 2026
- Koninklijke BAM Groep NV – What’s News in Amsterdam
- Pre-IPO DST Sustainable Technology-Valuation Premium Depends on Successful Validation of FMaaS Model
[Japan Offering] CKD (6407 JP) Sees Banks and an Insurer Sell; Buyback but Index Selling Offsets
- Yesterday, Ckd Corp (6407 JP) announced a secondary offering where multiple banks and an insurer will sell shares. Other banks and corporates and various mutual ownership associations will still hold.
- The offering is “small” at 6x ADV and 6% but the stock is well held by actives already. Only 13% of Max Real World Float on offer here but… overhang.
- The company is in the right AI/semicon/machinery space (stock up big last 18mos) but it isn’t dirt cheap and expected growth is slower than you’d like for the multiple.
After They Were Giants: Why 2000’s High-Return Stocks Mostly Lagged for 25 Years
- Eighteen S&P 500 giants earned 20%-plus ROE through the 1990s; fourteen then trailed the index into 2026, the median by about 2.7 points a year.
- Rich starting multiples, maturing runways, eroding moats and costly deals did the damage, while leverage and buybacks had flattered some of the returns on capital.
- Microsoft renewed its runway and Altria started cheap; today’s high-return screens should ask whether returns are still rising and whether the price still allows low-teens returns.
Aequitas: Sigenergy IPO Lockup – >US$200m Cornerstone Shares to Be Unlocked
- Sigenergy Technology (6656 HK) raised US$563m from its Hong Kong IPO in April 2026 via a primary offering of HKD324.2/share in its IPO.
- Sigenergy is a market leader in the stackable all-in-one DESS solutions market, a nascent industry.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Xin Yuan (1748 HK): Resumption Likely, Min Acceptance Condition a Coin Toss for Liu’s HK$2.21 VGO
- Mr Liu Jichun’s preconditional VGO for Xin Yuan Enterprises (1748 HK) is HK$2.21, a 25.6% premium to the last pre-suspension price. There is a 50% minimum acceptance condition.
- The resumption pre-condition looks achievable. The forensic report largely cleared the company of financial issues, and Xin Yuan says it has met all the conditions for resumption.
- Acceptance is on a knife-edge: the offeror reaches just 50.01% if all EGM supporters accept. The outcome turns on Danube Bridge’s 15m shares and Chen Maochun’s legal challenges.
DTS IPO Valuation Analysis
- My base case valuation of DTS is a target price of 29,360 won per share, which is 59% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (18,500 won).
- For my base case valuation, I used a P/E multiple of 12.3x based on my estimated net profit of 35.6 billion won in 2027.
- DTS designs and manufactures air-cooled heat exchangers used in power generation, LNG, and petrochemical plants. DTS is expanding into AI data centers and sustainable industrial waste-heat recovery systems.
Primer: P-DUKE Technology (8109 TT) – Oct 2026
- P-DUKE Technology (8109 TT) is an elite designer and manufacturer of high-reliability DC/DC converters and AC/DC switching power supplies, commanding industry-leading gross margins of 47-49% and net margins near 30% by dominating harsh-environment industrial, railway, and medical niches.
- Following an inventory digestion phase across European industrial channels in 2024, the company demonstrated a sharp cyclical and secular operational rebound through 2025 and 1H 2026, culminating in record quarterly revenue of NT$551.1M and net income of NT$170.1M in Q2 2026.
- The ongoing ramp-up of the newly commissioned Hai Duong manufacturing facility in Vietnam alongside expanded capacity in Taichung provides an essential ‘China+1’ supply chain hedge, positioning P-DUKE for accelerated market share gains with Western Tier-1 OEMs while maintaining an unleveraged, net-cash balance sheet and an attractive dividend yield.
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India Small And Micro Cap Compounders: High ROCE, Profitable Growth, Outsized Shareholder Returns
- Five names cleared the 15% hurdle, averaging 20-27% ROCE over FY22-26; Frontier Springs (FS IN) shows the strongest momentum with FY26 ROCE of 41%.
- Four of five expanded margins; Gandhi Special Tubes earns a 43.6% EBITDA margin, while Frontier Springs and Nitta Gelatin India more than doubled net margins since FY22
- Shares have compounded 22-76% annually since January 2022; Banco, Gandhi, and Nitta trade at 16-17x P/E, while Menon trades at 39x, with strong growth projected for the future.
Primer: Exxaro Tiles (EXXARO IN) – Oct 2026
- Stagnant Revenue and Sub-Scale Operational Footprint: Exxaro Tiles Limited (EXXARO IN) operates as a regional ceramic and vitrified tile manufacturer with an aggregate capacity of ~14.6 million square meters across its Padra and Talod facilities in Gujarat. The company’s top-line has flatlined around INR 3,000M–3,050M over the past three fiscal years (3-year revenue CAGR of -1.01%), constrained by domestic oversupply and limited brand-driven pricing power.
- Compressed Profitability with Nascent Cash Flow Normalization: Profitability remains thin, vulnerable to natural gas pricing volatility and price competition from the Morbi cluster. Net margin rebounded to 0.93% in FY2026 from negative 0.04% in FY2025, driven by product mix improvements. Concurrently, operating cash flow recovered to INR 214.57M and free cash flow turned positive to INR 122.29M, aiding balance sheet stabilization.
- Deep Value Multiple Capped by Structural Headwinds: EXXARO scores a top-tier 5/5 on Smartkarma Value metrics due to steep discounts to book value; however, scores of 2/5 in Growth, 2/5 in Resilience, and 1/5 in Dividend underscore lingering cyclical and operational risks, justifying an institutional rating of Neutral with an Overall Rating of 2/5.
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Koninklijke BAM Groep NV – What’s News in Amsterdam
- In this edition: • AkzoNobel / Axalta | EU and UK ‘Phase I’ deadlines to expire soon • InPost | Offeror reaches 98.49% after post-acceptance period • Shell | robust downstream margins and upstream volumes offset exploration write-down • Fagron | marginal downward outlook adjustment due to industry wide IV bag recall • BAM Group | acquires A.Hak for EUR 504m, strengthening position in energy and water infrastructure • E-commerce & Logistics | last mile shift towards OOH in the UK accelerates
Pre-IPO DST Sustainable Technology-Valuation Premium Depends on Successful Validation of FMaaS Model
- DST’s moat is primarily built on its unique scale effect that is difficult to replicate. Deep integration with industrial chain upstream is also a key factor for DST’s differentiated competitiveness.
- DST’s story is not only about how many vehicles it manages,but also about whether it can break free from heavy-asset trap and find sustainable path of light-asset with high returns.
- DST needs to prove its FMaaS model has SaaS characteristics and high repeat purchases.For high value-added EV management services, comfortable P/S is 4-6x.For EV leasing/EV sales, comfortable P/S is 1.5-2.5x.

