In today’s briefing:
- BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (September 2026)
- Iron Ore’s GWH Restocking Is Back in Play, But Mill Margins Lag
- Asian Equities: As Fed Hikes Loom, Asia’s Derating Clears the Path for Selective Sectoral Rerating
- Morning Market Notes: A U.S.-Iran Deal in the Making at the UN? We Are Still Not Holding Our Breath
- Oil futures: Brent tests $100/b as supply concerns ease
- Oil futures: Crude volatile as UN talks open, Saudi restarts pipeline
- President Trump’s UN Speech, Decoded for Markets
- TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 21 September 2026
- CX Daily: Jeju Missing Persons Scandal Tests Seoul’s Criminal Justice Overhaul
- Energy Weekly (W/E 18/Sep): WTI Reverses, Risk Premium Unwinds, Halliburton Tests Pricing Power
BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (September 2026)
- The Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, holding above its long-term support levels but without the momentum to break out to new highs.
- Healthcare is the only sector in positive territory in September. The materials sector benefited from gains in the gold sector.
- ZTE (763 HK) is maintained a BUY at CMB International with a +48% 12-month upside target price. The company is transitioning to international and AI sectors for growth.
Iron Ore’s GWH Restocking Is Back in Play, But Mill Margins Lag
- Elevated portside inventories and a fresh WoW increase suggest Golden Week restocking has yet to translate into meaningful inventory drawdowns.
- Options positioning is turning increasingly constructive, with call OI building at strikes 105 and 110. OI PCR of 0.61 reinforces the bullish bias.
- Managed money extended its bearish positioning for a 12th straight week, trimming long exposure by ~4% while increasing short positions by ~3%.
Asian Equities: As Fed Hikes Loom, Asia’s Derating Clears the Path for Selective Sectoral Rerating
- The Fed has embarked on a rate hike cycle and one more hike in December seems baked in. Treasury yields hovering at higher than 5% seem to portend more hikes.
- Asian yields started rising and PE peaked a year ago. Foreign flows, also impacted by US yields, dropped massively in 2025-26. Valuations and flows are anticipating the bad news already.
- Banks, insurance and basic materials should do well in an inflationary and tighter monetary environment. These sectors are also cheap in relation to their future earnings growth and ROE.
Morning Market Notes: A U.S.-Iran Deal in the Making at the UN? We Are Still Not Holding Our Breath
- In his speech to the U.N. General Assembly, President Trump stated that a “deal” with Iran could be made after the U.S. midterm elections.
- This suggests to us that there remains the possibility of the U.S. launching a major strike, perhaps on Pickaxe Mountain, before the midterms, as we previously discussed.
- Such an attack might satisfy the domestic base and yet allow President Trump to offer some form of “carrot” to Iran after the midterms to achieve his “off ramp.”
Oil futures: Brent tests $100/b as supply concerns ease
- Crude oil futures dropped for a fourth straight session on Monday, as expectations that Saudi Arabia could soon restore some flows through its damaged East-West Pipeline eased concerns over supply disruptions.
- Nov26 ICE Brent futures were 3.6% lower at $100.11/b (2119 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX WTI was at $92.04/b , down 4.2% versus Friday’s settle.
- Brent earlier traded at an intraday low of $98.98/b, dropping below $100/b for the first time in two weeks.
Oil futures: Crude volatile as UN talks open, Saudi restarts pipeline
- Crude oil futures remained volatile on Tuesday as talks around this week’s UN gathering got underway, including backchannel diplomacy between the US and Iran, while Saudi Arabia is preparing to restart exports from the Red Sea.
- Nov26 ICE Brent futures were 1.9% lower at $98.40/b (2124 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX WTI was at $89.73/b , down 2.6% versus Monday’s settle, leaving both benchmarks retreating for a fifth session.
- Brent traded down to a two-week low of $97.43/b after Japan’s Kyodo agency reported that a senior Iranian official told the US that Iran would reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz “within seven days” if Washington accepts Iran’s demands, including lifting a military blockade of Iranian ports.
President Trump’s UN Speech, Decoded for Markets
- One word: bombast. Of 14 testable claims in Trump’s UN speech, two hold up. The structure is the one he used on North Korea in 2017.
- The structure (annihilation threat, self-praise, a deal that is always close) is identical at the same podium in 2017. He will not change, because markets keep rewarding the pattern.
- His Iran stance now changes daily and the deal is dated to the election. Expect a Hormuz headline before 3 November, and more volatility after.
TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 21 September 2026
- Global air freight rates edged up again last week according to the latest data from TAC Index, calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight indices and leading price reporting agency for air freight markets.
- The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) gained +0.9% over seven days to September 21 – leaving the index now at +20.9% versus where it was a year ago, with rates remaining strong in the runup to the traditional peak season.
- With jet fuel rates now up more than double at +116.5% year-on-year to September 18, according to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, pressure for rates to rise further would seem to be increasing.
CX Daily: Jeju Missing Persons Scandal Tests Seoul’s Criminal Justice Overhaul
- Cover Story: Jeju Missing Persons Scandal Tests Seoul’s Criminal Justice Overhaul Along South Korea’s Jeju Island, the Jeju Olle Trail passes through villages, farmland and coastal roads.
- In Suwon-ri, a community of about 500 households in the northwestern township of Hallim-eup, a narrow palm grove sits beside a road, about 200 meters from the village office and 400 meters from a house.
- BlackRock China Unit Wins QDII License for Overseas Investment BlackRock Fund Management Co.
Energy Weekly (W/E 18/Sep): WTI Reverses, Risk Premium Unwinds, Halliburton Tests Pricing Power
- WTI gained 0.25% for the week but reversed sharply from its midweek highs as Saudi Arabia restored alternative export flows and fears of a prolonged supply loss eased.
- Options volatility and skew fell after the initial supply shock, while managed money cut net longs, pointing to more cautious positioning as WTI slipped below USD 100.
- Energy ETFs lagged crude despite selective AUM support, while Halliburton enters Q3 with North American pricing, Middle East activity and Venezuela as key catalysts.
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