In today’s briefing:
- Energy Cable #62: Biden is selling crude straddles, while something is cooking in China
- Great Game – Moscow terror, Netanyahu Furious and Biden climbing polls
- Positioning Watch – Time to get out of the cyclical trade?
- Ifo Nugget: What reflation in Germany?
- EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk
- Vietnam Politics: Infighting Won’t Derail Economy, For Now
- CX Daily: The countdown begins: TikTok navigates uncertain future amid U.S. ban bill
Energy Cable #62: Biden is selling crude straddles, while something is cooking in China
- Last week we took healthy profits in some of our global reflation bets.
- We got out of silver and copper, but remain in the broad materials ETF.
- Data out of China is a bit unclear with some prints being bullish and others bearish and then ambiguous data points such as the BOOMING copper stock.
Great Game – Moscow terror, Netanyahu Furious and Biden climbing polls
- Welcome to this week’s Great Game.
- We’re going to try out a slightly new format this time.
- Instead of unfolding one major topic, we will cover a couple stories more briefly, so you are covered on the most important stories in geopolitics right now.
Positioning Watch – Time to get out of the cyclical trade?
- Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! The weather in Copenhagen is sunny, and so is the mood in markets, with aggregate equity fund flows in the US reaching 2-year highs this week.
- Markets are certainly back into full risk-on mode, with the Fed promising rate cuts amidst reflationary trends in the US, which is a trend that is slowly but surely spreading to the rest of the world.
- The cyclical rebound is not truly there yet in Europe, which means that European indices are starting to get flagged as overpriced in our quant-models.
Ifo Nugget: What reflation in Germany?
Price expectations in services ex. real estate continued its downtrend and we now find ourselves at 2018-19 levels in what is pointing towards lower core inflation readings in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile price expectations in manufacturing climbed and looks like they have bottomed out at levels consistent with the price mandate of the ECB.
The drop in input prices, the global reflation story and expectations of ECB rate cuts seem to have had an effect and the question now becomes which of the two manufacturing and service price expectations will impact inflation come Summer and Fall the most.
EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk
- The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after Easter.
- We are leaning dovish relative to consensus, but due to VAT increases in Spanish electricity markets, it will not look like an outright home-run for disinflationistas in March either unless markets decide to focus on the TAX-constant HICP rates.
- Spanish HICP (Wednesday) -> Consensus 1.4%, Steno Research 1.26%
Vietnam Politics: Infighting Won’t Derail Economy, For Now
- The abrupt resignation of President Thuong is a sign that a major intra-party struggle within the ruling Communist Party is underway.
- Claims that Thuong resigned for failure to tackle corruption should be taken with more than a pinch of salt, given the politicization of the anti-corruption campaign by the party secretary-general.
- Pro-Growth policies will be maintained regardless of the political turnover, but prolonged turmoil will risk the country losing its moment in the sun.
CX Daily: The countdown begins: TikTok navigates uncertain future amid U.S. ban bill
- TikTok /Cover Story: The countdown begins: TikTok navigates uncertain future amid U.S. ban bill
- Forum /: Premier reiterates commitment to making China a better place to do business
- Ma Ying-jeou /: Former Taiwan leader to make first visit to Beijing
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