In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities
- [Japan M&A] YAGEO Overbids Minebea’s Overbid of YAGEO’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid – The Endgame
- NTT DATA (9613 JP): NTT (9432 JP) Tender Offer at JPY4,000
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): End Game Nears as Yageo Launches Its Hostile Tender at JPY6,200
- EToro IPO Valuation: First-Day IPO Pop Is Possible, But The Stock May Struggle To Hold Gains
- Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Capping Expected for DELTA; Three Index Changes Likely
- SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Guidance Shows A -5% in Revenue. Could This Reflect the Impact of US Tariffs?
- Panache Digilife : Forensic Analysis
- Domain Enters Into Scheme With CoStar
- Melco Holdings (6676 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
[Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities
- Pre-Open, we got a Nikkei article which suggested four different prices possible. We got something in the middle. I think NTT is probably overpaying here.
- There is a fair bit of transparency in the documents and valuation. That is encouraging. There are no synergies counted in the fair calculations. That is discouraging.
- This will not trade like a “normal” Japan risk arb situation. There will be nuances.
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Overbids Minebea’s Overbid of YAGEO’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid – The Endgame
- Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s strong overbid of Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
- We are now 40% higher than the initial bid and the best bid is approaching the top end of Valuation Agent’s top-of-DCF-range prices. There may be a bit more. Maybe.
- The question now is only whether Minebea responds. If it does, there is a little juice left, but if not, that’s it. It should get done.
NTT DATA (9613 JP): NTT (9432 JP) Tender Offer at JPY4,000
- NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) has recommended a tender offer from NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) at JPY4,000 per share, a 33.7% premium to the last close.
- The Nikkei earlier reported on the offer. The offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions.
- The offer could be considered light as it is below the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range. However, the shareholder structure suggests a done deal.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): End Game Nears as Yageo Launches Its Hostile Tender at JPY6,200
- Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has revised its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY6,200 per share, a 12.7% premium to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s JPY5,500 offer.
- There are factors supporting Minebea again outbidding Yageo and Minebea withdrawing its offer. Minebea is in a predicament as Yageo has established that it wants Shibaura at any cost.
- The most likely scenario is that Minebea withdraws its tender and the Board switches to a neutral opinion due to its ongoing non-price-related concerns.
EToro IPO Valuation: First-Day IPO Pop Is Possible, But The Stock May Struggle To Hold Gains
- EToro Group Ltd., a social trading platform, sets terms for upcoming IPO in the United States. The online broker offers 10M Class A shares at range of $46.00-$50.00 per share.
- At the midpoint of price range, eToro would command a market value of ~$4B on a fully-diluted basis. The selling shareholders offer 5M Class A shares.
- BlackRock has indicated a non-binding interest in purchasing up to $100M worth of eToro shares. However, these shares will not be subject to a lock-up agreement.
Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Capping Expected for DELTA; Three Index Changes Likely
- The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
- Here we look at the potential ADDs/DELs and capping flows for SET 50 for the June 2025 index rebalance. Currently, we expect three ADDs and three DELs for June 2025.
- Last time we didn’t like the look of the trades, so recommended avoiding. ExpectedADDs underperformed ExpectedDELETEs by 13% since then. Expected Flows remain small.
SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Guidance Shows A -5% in Revenue. Could This Reflect the Impact of US Tariffs?
- Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)‘s 1Q25 results were in line, while the 2Q25 guidance appears somewhat cautious.
- The Americas continued to contribute a low-teens percentage to revenue, accounting for 12.6%, while China and Eurasia made up the remaining majority.
- Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)’s top priority remains its strategic focus on core business and near-term execution.
Panache Digilife : Forensic Analysis
- Panache DigiLife Limited is an ICT & IoT devices design, manufacturing, distribution and services company.
- Company’s accounting policy for non-provisioning of old receivables seems to be aggressive. Poor capital allocation resulted in fragile financial health.
- Concentration risk with sales from single customer accounting for 55% of revenue to be major areas of concern.
Domain Enters Into Scheme With CoStar
- On the 27th March 2025, Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) announced a $4.43/share NBIO from Costar, and subsequently entered into an exclusivity and process deed.
- Domain has now entered into a Scheme with CoStar on the same terms. Including any dividends paid. Curiously, terms were not declared “best & final” as stated in the NBIO.
- Apart from the standard Scheme vote – expected mid-August, this needs FIRB to sign off. Potential implementation late-August. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) (60.1% shareholder) is supportive.
Melco Holdings (6676 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- Revenue decreased by 1.8% YoY to JPY143.2bn, with IT business revenue up 13.6% and Food business down 43.9%.
- Operating profit increased by 242.7% YoY to JPY8.9bn, driven by IT segment’s OPM rise and cost ratio decline.
- Dividend per share for FY03/25 remained JPY120, with a total payout ratio of 117.7% including treasury stock repurchase.
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