In today’s briefing:
- SK HYNIX (000660 KS / SKHY US): Solidigm’s Value Just Quadrupled, According to Reuters
- Aequitas ECM Weekly (28 September 2026)- Tencent, NSE, GCash, Ligent, Kinwong, Robo, Direct Drive
- The Relay Behind Microsoft’s 17-Bagger: How to Find the Next Nadella
- Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Volatility Falls as 2x ETF Trading Activity Slumps
- Freee (4478 JP) | Margins Now, Cash Later
- Merger Arb Mondays (28 Sep) – Kakaku, Sankei RE, Kadoya, Leopalace, Goodbaby, Z Fin, Yinson, Peet
- Ezra Klein’s Extended Interview With Jensen Huang Was Just Pure Gold. Key Takeaways, Full Transcript
- Orbbec (ORBC HK): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (27 Sep 2026)
- Pre-IPO Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Evmand (EVMND US): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (27 Sep 2026)
SK HYNIX (000660 KS / SKHY US): Solidigm’s Value Just Quadrupled, According to Reuters
- Reuters: Solidigm weighs IPO up to $150bn, ~$15bn raise, 2027 listing — 4x the KRW50T figure our August stub-value thesis modeled, but single-sourced and unfiled.
- Re-Run SOTP: Solidigm optionality lifts Fair Value by ₩324,000/share to ₩3,024,000, up 12% from our current TP of ₩2,700,000.
- We keep our Fair Value unchanged. This confirms our 40%-probability base case rather than surprising it. The SKHY rose by ~3% on Friday, a good sign it will rise today.
Aequitas ECM Weekly (28 September 2026)- Tencent, NSE, GCash, Ligent, Kinwong, Robo, Direct Drive
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM) launched with a strong cornerstone book, while National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) didn’t make much of a splash.
- On the placement front, GIC sold out of Sunway Healthcare Holdings (SUNMED MK), while it was the chairman’s turn to sell some more of Kanzhun (2076 HK) stock.
The Relay Behind Microsoft’s 17-Bagger: How to Find the Next Nadella
- Microsoft’s 17× under Satya Nadella was a double play: EPS rose about 6.6× while the P/E more than doubled from a value-trap 13.8×.
- It was a relay: the Ballmer era built the enterprise channel and incubated Azure; Nadella removed the anchors and redirected capital toward cloud and AI.
- The next setup pairs a re-founder with an inherited distribution channel and an unpriced option; IBM had a franchise and an insider CEO but lacked the option and the reallocation.
Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Volatility Falls as 2x ETF Trading Activity Slumps
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) gained 9.8% in September MTD and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 18.3%, but redemptions limited AUM growth to 15%.
- Units declined across every long-leveraged ETF, while the inverse product added 10% more units despite losing 20.2%.
- Annualised 21-day volatility fell from approximately 135% to 42%, coinciding with regulatory restrictions and a collapse in leveraged ETF flows and turnover.
Freee (4478 JP) | Margins Now, Cash Later
- Margins are the near-term catalyst: Hiring drops sharply, supporting guided adjusted operating-margin expansion from 11% in FY6/27 to 15.5% in FY6/28.
- Corporate Mid drives growth: ARR grew 27.2%, supported by accounting-firm distribution, while AI and embedded finance provide additional potential upside.
- Cash conversion is the key risk: Adjusted profit masks SBC, capitalised software and card funding; weak FCF could undermine valuation if AI pressures margins.
Merger Arb Mondays (28 Sep) – Kakaku, Sankei RE, Kadoya, Leopalace, Goodbaby, Z Fin, Yinson, Peet
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations covered across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), OFX Group (OFX AU), Goodbaby International (1086 HK), Z Fin (1168 HK), Peet Ltd (PPC AU), Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU), Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU).
- Lowest spreads: Kadoya Sesame Mills (2612 JP), Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Accent Group (AX1 AU), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU).
Ezra Klein’s Extended Interview With Jensen Huang Was Just Pure Gold. Key Takeaways, Full Transcript
- Customer service on the phone, that job is precisely the task. And so in those cases it could be automated away.
- At the beginning of this year, it was 70%, maybe higher, closed model tokens and 20% open model tokens. And now it’s running at about 70, 30 the other way
- If, when we test our models, it gets out and damages the world, then the answer is we have to shut the labs down because the damage is too great.
Orbbec (ORBC HK): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (27 Sep 2026)
- The 3D visual perception market is undergoing a decisive transition toward active stereo vision (e.g., Orbbec’s Gemini series), which is eclipsing older structured light and iToF modalities in robotics because it offers robust outdoor performance, zero motion blur via global shutters, and integrated edge-processing ASICs.
- Cognex’s $500 million cash acquisition of Intel spinoff RealSense on September 22, 2026, marks a massive consolidation wave in the robotic perception market, validating the high growth of Physical AI but presenting Orbbec with a formidable, deeply capitalized competitor in Western industrial markets.
- Orbbec is executing a sharp, dual-track strategic pivot to improve profitability, filing for a Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) listing in September 2026. This capital-raising effort aims to support their high-margin B2B sensor segment (which grew 52% in 1H 2026 with a 57.6% gross margin) while offsetting declines in their mature finished-device consumer business.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
Pre-IPO Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Although Transsion holds an absolute leading position in African market, its fundamentals are in early stage of profit recovery, and it‘s facing dual uncertainties of patent litigation and intensified competition.
- When competitors use mid-to-high-end models to encroach from above and use operator subsidies to pounce from below,Transsion lacks core product line with high profit margins to provide a profit buffer.
- Transsion’s “multi-brand, full coverage” strategy is difficult to completely avoid the impact of the industry’s downward cycle. Compared with peers, the A/H discount may fall within the range of 15%-25%.
Evmand (EVMND US): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (27 Sep 2026)
- No Proprietary Tech Moat: Evmand’s “proprietary” algorithmic platform, the Evmand SEO Assistant, is a commoditized API wrapper outsourced entirely to Digital Forge Solutions LTD for a mere $64,800 under a contract signed in March 2026, demonstrating zero in-house R&D capabilities.
- Going-Concern & Capital Deficiencies: The upcoming IPO seeking to raise $240,000 at $0.06 per share is an ultra-micro-cap shell-like offering. With a historic working capital deficit of $8,400 as of March 31, 2026, and operations dependent on an interest-free loan of up to $200,000 from its sole director, the cash runway is virtually non-existent without dilutive capital raises.
- Extreme Governance Risks: The business is a virtual operation with zero institutional presence. The sole director and promoter, Poliandra Guimaraes Peres, operates remotely from Brazil, controls 100% of the voting power pre-IPO (41.2% post-IPO), uses a mail-forwarding address in Wyoming, and has no experience managing a US public company.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
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