In today’s briefing:
- Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
- [Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting – A VERY BIG DEAL
- [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown
- SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in Dec, Big DELTA Capping
- [Quiddity Index] Predictions for the Global Index Provider Rebal in November 2025
- SCSK Corp (9719 JP): Sumitomo (8053 JP)’s Attractive Tender Offer at JPY5,700
- ANE (9956 HK): Centurium/Temasek’s Clean Offer
- Sanil Electric Poised for Pop on Nov 20 KOSPI200 Ad‑Hoc (HD Hyundai Merger)
- AUB Group (AUB AU) Opens Books To EQT’s NBIO
- SK Square: Selling Its Stake in 11st to SK Planet
Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
- Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
- A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.
- Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.
[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting – A VERY BIG DEAL
- In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
- In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
- This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October.
[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown
- Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR’s lockup would expire about now in [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?
- Today post-close, Applied Materials (AMAT US) announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%.
- This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR’s last bit. Perhaps to come soon?
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in Dec, Big DELTA Capping
- With a third of the review period yet to go, we forecast 2 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in December.
- Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
- The forecast adds have moved higher and outperformed the index while the forecast deletes have drifted lower over the last 6 months.
[Quiddity Index] Predictions for the Global Index Provider Rebal in November 2025
- A global index provider will announce its quarterly review on 5 November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24 November 2025.
- We make predictions every week for the following index rebalance and publish them along with predictions for 100 other indices.
- This insight shows our whole set of predictions across 47 countries for the next rebalance. Most of these names are unchanged since our early September predictions.
SCSK Corp (9719 JP): Sumitomo (8053 JP)’s Attractive Tender Offer at JPY5,700
- In response to the Nikkei report, Scsk Corp (9719 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) at JPY5,700, a 31.5% premium to the last close.
- The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions, is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and represents an all-time high.
- An attractive offer facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 30 October to 12 December, with payment commencing from 19 December.
ANE (9956 HK): Centurium/Temasek’s Clean Offer
- After ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, an Offer from PE outfit Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, was expected.
- And this is what unfolded. Centurium, together with Temasek and Singapore-based asset manager True Light, are offering HK$12.18/share (best & final) via a Scheme, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed.
- A scrip alternative is present (mix & match). This is a pre-conditional Offer: it requires SAMR signing off. The FA is JPM. This should help smooth over the reg process.
Sanil Electric Poised for Pop on Nov 20 KOSPI200 Ad‑Hoc (HD Hyundai Merger)
- HD Hyundai merger: both legs in index, Mipo delists, slot opens — one new name gets added to KOSPI200 via ad‑hoc.
- Sanil Electric (062040 KS) to replace HD Mipo pre‑Dec review. If DTV settles back into the 500–600k range, then KS200 ETFs will need to scoop ~0.3–0.4x DTV on Nov 26.
- Better to front‑run KRX; with AI power trade still hot, Nov 20 announcement likely sparks outsized price action vs waiting for rebalance print.
AUB Group (AUB AU) Opens Books To EQT’s NBIO
- AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), which operates a network of insurance “matchmakers”, has announced a NBIO, via a Scheme, from EQT @ A$45/share, a ~40% premium to undisturbed.
- That indicative price is up from $43/share proposed on the 13th September (but not made public).
- AUB’s board has opted to open its books to EQT, on an exclusive basis, for six weeks. Tentatively, that expires on or around the 9th December.
SK Square: Selling Its Stake in 11st to SK Planet
- On 29 October, SK Square announced that it is selling its stake in 11st to SK Planet. This is likely to have a slightly negative impact on SK Square.
- Given SK Planet’s limited financial resources, it is likely that SK Square will provide funding to SK Planet through a capital increase.
- However, the biggest factor driving SK Square’s share price right now is the continued surge in SK Hynix’s share price.
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