In today’s briefing:
- Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
- [Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
- China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
- UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market
- JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
- Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
- Duality Bio IPO Lockup – US$2.7bn Lockup Release, with Lots of CCASS Movement
- Hanwha Ocean: Negative Impact from Chinese Government’s Efforts to Crack Down on U.S. Subsidiaries
- An Update of Our 2025 High Conviction Pick: Samsung Electronics
Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits
- Since announcing HSBC (5 HK)‘s Offer, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has traded tight-ish to terms, at a ~3.9% gross spread (including dividends). Or ~10% annualised if a five month offramp.
- Annualised spreads for clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, do tend to widen after day 1. Meaning, the gross spread remains roughly static as investors hit their full quota early on.
- HSBC shareholders are questioning the deal merits. For Hang Seng minorities, this is a great exit. Inside this report, I take a deeper dive into Hong Kong bank takeover precedents.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
- GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
- GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.
[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
- Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update.
- They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
- And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too.
China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
- Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
- The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
- China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.
UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market
- Most narratives can find some support in the latest labour market report, preserving uncertainty that should keep the BoE on hold at least until some clarity emerges.
- Unemployment has increased (LFS) or stabilised (payrolls), while pay is shockingly resurgent (inc-bonuses), slowing as expected (ex-bonus) or stagnating (private pay).
- Weakness isn’t as clear as the consensus and press sometimes make out, but concerns aren’t invalidated. We still expect resilience to preserve excess inflation hawkishly.
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
- The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
- The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
- There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.
Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
- After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
- Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
- There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.
Duality Bio IPO Lockup – US$2.7bn Lockup Release, with Lots of CCASS Movement
- Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK)‘ s raised around US$200m in its Hong Kong listing in April 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone and pre-IPO investors is set to expire today.
- Duality is a biopharma company focused primarily on the independent discovery and development of antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) assets.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Hanwha Ocean: Negative Impact from Chinese Government’s Efforts to Crack Down on U.S. Subsidiaries
- Chinese government’s efforts to ban Hanwha Ocean’s five U.S. subsidiaries from conducting any transactions with organizations or individuals in China is likely to have material Negative impact on Hanwha Ocean.
- If Hanwha’s U.S. subsidiaries are banned from Chinese suppliers, they’ll need to source alternatives (Japan, Europe, or domestic U.S. firms), that could involve 20–50% higher costs with longer lead times.
- Basically, what’s going on is that the Chinese government wants to slow down the United States’ efforts to rebuild its shipbuilding sector with the help of Korean shipbuilders.
An Update of Our 2025 High Conviction Pick: Samsung Electronics
- Back on 6 November 2024, we published an insight called 2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics. In this insight, we provide an update of Samsung Electronics.
- Samsung Electronics reported operating profit of 12.1 trillion won (up 31.8% YoY and 18.7% higher than consensus) in 3Q 2025.
- The final installment of the 12 trillion won+ inheritance tax is due in April 2026.
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