In today’s briefing:
- HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
- Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability
- ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?
- S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes
- Emperador (EMP PM): FTSE Inclusion Likely in September
HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
- We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.
- There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the ‘sell-only’ Southbound Stock Connect list.
- Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the ‘sell-only’ Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.
Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability
- An article this morning in the Yomiuri suggested JIC was bidding, even though they have not been in any “lists of 8 bidders” I have seen. The market yawned.
- An article this evening says bidders are offering “up to ¥7,000/share” but there is a range of pricing and conditions. Not surprising, but we know little.
- Shareholder structure matters. This has been event-y for a long time so I expect not many new buyers are ready to come in. This just shifts the range. And risk.
ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?
- Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion, according to press reports.
- In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?, we look at the latest developments and results.
- The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo’s issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests a valuation range of US$5.0-5.2 billion.
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes
- There could be one change to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in July following the privatisation of Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU).
- Then there will be a whole bunch of changes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index in September as part of the regular rebalance.
- There is large short interest on a couple of the potential adds and a lot of the potential deletes. That will drive stock price moves closer to implementation.
Emperador (EMP PM): FTSE Inclusion Likely in September
- Emperador Inc (EMP PM) passes the FTSE Median Liquidity test and the inclusion thresholds for full market cap and investable market cap and could be added in the FTSE GEIS.
- The inclusion should take place at the September SAIR and that would require passive funds to buy over 84m shares. That is over 35 days of ADV.
- A potential secondary listing in Singapore has moved the stock in the past and that could be another trigger for the stock to move higher.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
