In today’s briefing:
- 7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
- [Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications
- Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover
- UK Jobs Data And The Muddled MPC
- PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr Firms “Superior Offer”. Expect The Board To Reject. Again
- Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks
- Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: 20 Deletions Likely Due to Major Methodology Change
- Samsung Jay Lee Cleared by Supreme Court — Market Reaction Could Flip From Consensus
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: Final Expectations; ~US$1.6bn One-Way; Long Up 9% Vs Peers
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
- Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
- The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
- The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications
- Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share.
- Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share.
- The Tender Offer Buyback was “successful” in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications
Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover
- Late last month, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
- As discussed in Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, reportedly leading to margin calls.
- Yesterday, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged in margin accounts. Notably, pledged shares in KTC has fallen to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.
UK Jobs Data And The Muddled MPC
- UK payroll revisions removed most of May’s weakness, while wage and price inflation is too fast, yet the BoE probably won’t back down from an August cut as the UR rises.
- Fewer payroll inflows explain its downtrend, with <24yo suffering sustained pain, but the 25-64yo endure the taxation hit, structurally raising unemployment by ~0.5pp.
- Wage growth isn’t showing signs of new disinflationary demand pressures, so we expect excessive underlying wage and price trends to persist, not helped by an August BoE cut.
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr Firms “Superior Offer”. Expect The Board To Reject. Again
- Back on the 20th June, betr (BBT AU) tabled an all-scrip off-market Offer for PointsBet (PBH AU), with no minimum acceptance condition, which they considered superior to MIXI (2121 JP)‘s.
- Which was a bold statement, as 3.81 new betr shares, at the time, was equivalent to A$1.143/share versus MIXI’s A$1.20/share all-cash Offer. It’s now worth A$1.03/share.
- Last night, betr released its Bidder’s Statement. Terms are unchanged. Offer opens ~31st July. PointsBet was quick to point out, again, the current (low) value of the scrip terms.
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks
- Couche-Tard has withdrawn its offer for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) by unfairly laying the entire blame on the Board.
- The Board has made credible progress, but the jury is still out on whether the Board’s plan will generate returns. Shareholders remain sceptical as the shares have underperformed the index.
- In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are no near-term catalysts.
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: 20 Deletions Likely Due to Major Methodology Change
- The Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO) will represent the 30 largest biotech companies listed in Hong Kong (HKEX) from September 2025.
- Due to a methodology change for HSHKBIO announced in late-June 2025, 20 index constituents could face deletion in September 2025.
- In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes and capping flows for HSHKBIO index rebal event in September 2025.
Samsung Jay Lee Cleared by Supreme Court — Market Reaction Could Flip From Consensus
- Jay Lee’s clean Supreme Court win may cool Samsung’s governance trade near term. With legal risks gone, there’s less urgency to push structural changes or shuffle shares now.
- Samsung C&T, a hotspot for governance spec flows, may see bids fade as urgency for structural shifts drops; longs on revamp bets might consider fading or shorting amid lingering risks.
- Samsung Life gets relief as forced Elec share sales drop, supporting its stock. Samsung Elec stays neutral. Trade idea: Samsung Life long, Samsung C&T short on cooled governance hopes.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: Final Expectations; ~US$1.6bn One-Way; Long Up 9% Vs Peers
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in September 2025.
- We see one low-conviction ADD/DEL and one significant float percentage revision which could collectively trigger roughly US$1.6bn in one-way index flows in September 2025.
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
- There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.
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