In today’s briefing:
- Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap
- [Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: 2 ADDs Expected; US$1.8bn One-Way Flows
- Credit Cockroaches Incubating
- Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop
- Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout
- Pony AI Secondary HK Offering – Stock Has Been Volatile, a Look at Possible Trading Setup
- [Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec25 Rebal: Capping Flow Expectations Limited
- Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible
- The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals
- Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop
Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap
- Softbank Group (9984 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
- Nearly half of Softbank Group‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.
- Softbank Group has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: 2 ADDs Expected; US$1.8bn One-Way Flows
- The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally. Last month the index inorganically gained significant tracking AUM.
- This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event are presented here.
- We expect 2 high-conviction ADDs for December 2025, with one-way flow of US$1.85bn. Healthy start for this new-ish index.
Credit Cockroaches Incubating
- Write-downs at two regional banks follow the cockroaches of First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies, and should not be dismissed as isolated idiosyncratic events.
- Overly accommodative monetary conditions are stimulating markets to incubate cockroach eggs that may spawn as private credit malinvestment in the next recession.
- It is too early for these eggs to hatch, aided by the warm support of further Fed rate cuts. So, risk assets will probably keep on rising in the void of economic data releases.
Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop
- After a huge upward move earlier this year, Remegen (9995 HK)‘s stock has started to drop as the sector starts to give back some of its gains.
- Despite the recent correction, Remegen (9995 HK) should be added to a global index in November and that could help the stock outperform its peers.
- There appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.
Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout
- Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
- Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
- Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.
Pony AI Secondary HK Offering – Stock Has Been Volatile, a Look at Possible Trading Setup
- Pony AI (PONY US) plans to raise around US$1bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
- The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 17th October 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
- In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec25 Rebal: Capping Flow Expectations Limited
- The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
- This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
- There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$186mm for December 2025 due to capping/re-capping.
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200.
- The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.
The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals
- In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.
- The US and Australia will each “provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months“
- Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including Arafura Resources (ARU AU).
Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop
- Gold’s rally shows signs of overextension but the volatility footprint differs from prior rallies.
- We exam major bull markets over the past 50 years to assess how the current move stacks up.
- Fund flows and the sources of buying pressure are analyzed to gauge the rally’s sustainability.
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