In today’s briefing:
- TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): An Impending KKR Takeunder?
- High-Conviction TIGER Semi Top 10 Rebal Trade from MKF500 Rebalance Cues
- Weekly Deals Digest (21 Dec) – Mandom, Hogy, Matsuya R&D, MDV, ANE, Hang Seng, Jinke, Humm
- Merger Arb Mondays (22 Dec) – Dongfeng, Jinke, ANE, ENN, Makino, Pacific Ind, Raksul, Toyota Ind
- Biren Technology IPO: China’s “NVIDIA Moment” and The Rise of a Homegrown AI Chip Champion
- Reliance Industries: India’s GDP in a Single Stock?
- Last Week In Event SPACE: ANE Cayman. Hogy Medical, Hang Seng, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent
- Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Late-Week Rally
- Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$13bn.
- The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.
- There are a few surprises and those stocks could outperform peers over the rest of the trading period.
Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): An Impending KKR Takeunder?
- On 19 December, Bloomberg reported that KKR has emerged as a frontrunner to privatise Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), but “the tender offer price may be lower than the current price.”
- Since the first Bloomberg article on 27 May, Taiyo’s shares are up 84% vs. the median peers’ shares, which are up 62%. Therefore, the shares reflect some takeover premium.
- Based on the medium-term management plan, which is likely KKR’s base case, I estimate a tender offer of around JPY4,624, 1.2% below the last close.
High-Conviction TIGER Semi Top 10 Rebal Trade from MKF500 Rebalance Cues
- FnGuide’s December MKF500 rebalance adds Wonik Holdings (030530) to the semis bucket, clearing screens for TIGER Semiconductor TOP 10 ETF, Korea’s largest sector ETF.
- October rebalance: Wonik IPS added at 5% weight, pulling ₩100B passive flows and ripping 15%+ as retail chased.
- For April rebalance, Wonik Holdings’ high volume lowers theoretical passive impact, but strong retail chasing could trigger Oct 2–style price action—definitely worth monitoring.
Weekly Deals Digest (21 Dec) – Mandom, Hogy, Matsuya R&D, MDV, ANE, Hang Seng, Jinke, Humm
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (603501 CH)‘s H Share listing to raise US$1 billion.
- Event-Driven developments: Hogy Medical (3593 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Matsuya R&D (7317 JP), Medical Data Vision (3902 JP), ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).
Merger Arb Mondays (22 Dec) – Dongfeng, Jinke, ANE, ENN, Makino, Pacific Ind, Raksul, Toyota Ind
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), Qube Holdings (QUB AU).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK).
Biren Technology IPO: China’s “NVIDIA Moment” and The Rise of a Homegrown AI Chip Champion
- Biren Technology, a Shanghai-based fabless chip design company that develops intelligent processors for GPU and DSA computation architectures, filed to go public in Hong Kong.
- Biren Technology was founded in 2019 by CEO & Chairman Mr. Wen Zhang, who previously worked at AI software company SenseTime Group Inc.
- This is a red-hot upcoming IPO to watch, in my view. Moore Threads and MetaX Integrated Circuits have recently raised $1.1B and ~$600M in their public share offerings in Shanghai.
Reliance Industries: India’s GDP in a Single Stock?
- Reliance Industries (RELIANCE IN)mirrors India’s economic pulse, integrating energy, retail, and digital sectors to drive consumption, industrial growth, and widespread digital adoption across the nation.
- Q2FY26 delivered robust double-digit growth with revenue up ten percent, driven by strong consumer business momentum and a sharp recovery in fuel refining margins.
- Future growth is contingent on scaling New Energy gigafactories, monetizing 5G and AI investments, and executing the planned listing of retail and digital consumer businesses.
Last Week In Event SPACE: ANE Cayman. Hogy Medical, Hang Seng, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent
- ANE Cayman (9956 HK)‘s Scheme Doc is out, absent any reference to CDH (holding an estimated 18%). Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid.
- Hogy Medical (3593 JP)‘s Offer Price is more than expected; but the fact that Dalton , who really wanted to sell, but isn’t selling, suggests the price should be higher.
- 8th January vote on HSBC (5 HK)‘s Offer for Hang Seng Bank (11 HK). Safe deal. This is effectively a term deposit hybrid.
Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Late-Week Rally
- US equities rebounded on Friday, snapping a recent losing streak as easing inflation concerns and renewed confidence in the AI trade lifted sentiment late in a volatile week.
- Sony Group will acquire an additional 41% of Peanuts Holdings for about $460m, lifting ownership to 80%, consolidating the unit and booking a remeasurement gain in operating profit.
- Nike’s earnings slump highlights China weakness and margin pressure, creating share-gain opportunities for ASICS, whose improving China margins and exposure to a healthy global running market position it favorably.
Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside
- Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.
- Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.
- Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.
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