Tag

Consumer Archives | Page 119 of 122 | Smartkarma

Daily Brief Consumer: Yashili International Holdings, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, Hyundai Mobis, Tassal, Consumer Discretionary Select, Kroger Co, Altria Group, Central Plaza Hotel, Faraday Future Intelligent Electric and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Yashili’s Pre-Condition EGM Approval Secured
  • CTG Duty Free H-Share Listing: Not Even Attractive at the Lower End
  • Looking at Hyundai Mobis Spin-Off from a Swing Trading Perspective
  • Cooke Nets Tassal On Fourth Attempt
  • Tassal Recommends Cooke’s A$5.23 Offer
  • Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight
  • Kroger Company: The Boost Membership & Other Drivers
  • Altria Group: Low Health Risk Products Upside
  • CENTEL : Back to Net Profit Again in 2Q22 Before Recovering up In
  • Faraday Future’s Weak Q2 Results & Cash Risks Ahead of New EV Launch

Yashili’s Pre-Condition EGM Approval Secured

By Arun George

  • Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) independent shareholders unanimously approved the proposed transactions at the 16 August EGM, a crucial step for China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)’s HK$1.20 offer.
  • The remaining pre-condition is the completion of the 25% Yashili acquisition. The completion conditions suggest that this pre-condition is low risk and will likely be completed soon.
  • The value test is only applicable to the scheme. At last close and for a November completion, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 8.1% and 29.6%, respectively.

CTG Duty Free H-Share Listing: Not Even Attractive at the Lower End

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • CTG Duty Free Group has filed for a HKEx listing and plans to raise net proceeds of US$1.98bn at the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$143.5-165.5 per share.
  • The company’s indicative IPO price range is at a 27-37% discount to the company’s last close of RMB194.75 per share.
  • In this insight, we discuss our key concerns on CTG’s financials and our thoughts on the company’s valuation.

Looking at Hyundai Mobis Spin-Off from a Swing Trading Perspective

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hyundai Mobis said it was considering a split but had not yet made a decision. This kind of response is generally seen as an ACKNOWLEDGMENT.
  • The eventual goal should be to liquidate the Chung family’s Mobis stake via spin-off/merger and swap it with Kia Motors’ Mobis stake. It implies that this will be a spin-off.
  • This aspect serves as an opportunity to use today’s Mobis price drop as a swing trading entry point. I would consider building a Long/Short setup with HMC at this point.

Cooke Nets Tassal On Fourth Attempt

By David Blennerhassett

  • Tasmanian salmon producer Tassal (TGR AU) and Canadian aquaculture play Cooke have entered into a Scheme at A$5.23/share. 
  • The revised Offer is Cooke’s fourth bid since late May, having initially pitched A$4.67/share. Cooke has been gradually building its stake and now holds 10.5%, up from 5.4% initially.  
  • This Offer is done and dusted. Tassal’s board unanimously recommends shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme.

Tassal Recommends Cooke’s A$5.23 Offer

By Arun George

  • Tassal (TGR AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Cooke at A$5.23 per share, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$3.52.
  • The offer price is an all-time share price high. The scheme is not subject to due diligence or a financing condition. Cooke also noted that it had received FIRB approval.
  • This is a done deal. At last close and for year-end payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.8% and 4.6%, respectively.

Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.
  • It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.
  • Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.

Kroger Company: The Boost Membership & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Kroger Co. continued to navigate the challenging operating environment characterized by continued supply chain headwinds, including higher diesel fuel costs and inflationary cost pressures.
  • The highlight of the last quarter was its launch of the Boost membership on grocery and fuel delivery.
  • We provide the stock of Kroger Company with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Altria Group: Low Health Risk Products Upside

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Altria is facing a difficult macroeconomic climate since the start of 2022 which was responsible for a weaker tobacco performance.
  • The company failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms revenues despite the robust performance of Marlboro.
  • The smokeable products division did generate excellent operating company income growth, while their moist smokeless tobacco brands kept boosting profitability resulting in the company delivering an earnings beat.

CENTEL : Back to Net Profit Again in 2Q22 Before Recovering up In

By Pi Research

  • Maintain BUY recommendation for CENTEL with a target price of Bt49.0.The company’s 2Q22 net profit came out above our expectation at Bt22m in 2Q22, compared with Bt44m loss in 1Q22.
  • Impressive performance for hospitality business.Hotel revenue hit nine quarter high at Bt1.4bn thanks to impressive performance for Thai hotels as RevPar for Bangkok and Upcountry hotels jumped sixfold and fourfold 
  • Food hit 10 quarter high at Bt2.9bn (+26%YoY+11%QoQ) on the back of strong SSSG at 19% compared with 0% and 10% in 2Q21 and 1Q22 respectively.

Faraday Future’s Weak Q2 Results & Cash Risks Ahead of New EV Launch

By SC Capital

  • Faraday Future (FF) saw a Q2 net loss of $142m & cash fell by 56% QoQ to $121m. As of Aug-9th, cash sunk another 59% to $52m.
  • FF’s recently lined up financing provides $52m, but comes in stages through late October, which could hinder its Q4 new flagship EV launch.
  • Risk statements regarding the launch of its new EV raise concerns about supplier relationships and marketing capabilities even if its first EV is launched in Q4. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Consumer: HLB Inc, Giordano International, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Wynn Macau Ltd, Faraday Future Intelligent Electric, Sappe Pcl and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HLB Capital Increase: Offering Terms & Trading Dynamics
  • Giordano’s Conditional Offer Open, Price Declared Final, Unlikely to Meet 50%+ Voting Threshold
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Gaining Momentum and Scale
  • Wynn Macau – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Faraday Future Raised $52m or 1/4 of Needed Funds
  • SAPPE : Solid Export Sales Drove 2Q22 Profit to New High

HLB Capital Increase: Offering Terms & Trading Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

  • This offering is a 100% stockholder allocation with forfeited shares going to the public. There will be 9.56M new shares at a capital increase of nearly 9%.
  • We should note that the largest shareholder may again do the same trick. He may block-deal a 1% stake and use the proceeds to participate in this offering.
  • A massive release volume and a 25% discount rate may cause a severe pricing distortion, leading to arb trading openings.

Giordano’s Conditional Offer Open, Price Declared Final, Unlikely to Meet 50%+ Voting Threshold

By Arun George

  • Giordano International (709 HK)’s voluntary conditional from the Cheng Yu Tung family (24.57% of outstanding shares) at HK$1.88 per share is open with a first closing date of 5 September.
  • Crucially, the offeror will not increase the offer price. In combination with an ongoing retail recovery, the low-ball offer has little chance of meeting the 50%+ minimum acceptance threshold.
  • While the IFA says the offer is fair and reasonable, key directors will not accept the offer. A deal break implies, at most, another 10% downside to the last close.

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Gaining Momentum and Scale

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A recent conversation with Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) which operates Alfamart and AlfaMidi mini-markets in Indonesia further cemented a positive view on the outlook for the company.
  • The company should easily surpass its target for 1,000 new stores this year, with increasing basket sizes and fee-based income and some new features such as BeanStop potentially improving returns. 
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya remains a core retail holding with an increasing investor following after MSCI inclusion. Valuations remain attractive versus history and ROE at 25% is higher than pre-COVID levels.

Wynn Macau – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Wynn Macau’s H1/22 earnings continued to underperform those of peers, with the trend persisting since Q4/21. This could be owing to stiffer competition from newer properties (e.g. MGM Cotai and SJM Holdings’ Grand Lisboa Palace), particularly in the premium mass segment.

We highlight that Wynn Macau has sufficient liquidity to sustain 15 months of operating cash burn in a zero-revenue scenario. This does not factor in the company’s USD 500 mn loan from its parent, which we assume would be used to meet the government’s requirement for all operators to raise share capital by MOP 5 bn.

Wynn Macau’s next debt maturity will be in October 2024, when the USD 600 mn WYNMAC 4.875 24 will come due. Given that the WYNMAC bonds are yielding 9-12%, we believe it could be very difficult for the company to issue new bonds for refinancing. Hence, Wynn Macau might face serious refinancing risk if the industry fails to recover meaningfully beyond 2023.


Faraday Future Raised $52m or 1/4 of Needed Funds

By SC Capital

  • Faraday Future (FF) released an 8-K today saying they raised $52m and could see as much as $600m after 90 days.
  • The 90-day lead time is obviously based on whether FF can survive. The company originally said it needed $200m to make it through the Q4 launch of its first EV.
  • FF said it only had $52m in cash as of August 9th versus $233m on April 30th. With new funding, FF has 7.4 weeks of money at current cash-burn rates.

SAPPE : Solid Export Sales Drove 2Q22 Profit to New High

By Pi Research

  • Excluding onetime items, SAPPE’s 2Q22 core profit came in at Bt179m (+41%YoY, +18%QoQ), all-time-high, above our expectation and BB consensus estimated. Impressive result supported by a record high
  • MOGU MOGU drove 2Q22 earnings The 2Q22 net profit rose to all-time-high of Bt167m (+32%YoY, +9%QoQ) driven by a solid Mogu Mogu sales (the best-selling products in export markets).
  • The 2Q22 revenue rose to all-time-high of Bt1.2bn (+39%YoY, +21%QoQ), thanks to continues growth in international markets especially from Asia (+85%YoY) and EU & America (+63%YoY) due to re-stocking products 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Consumer: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, Giordano International, Lifestyle International Holdings, The Keepers Holdings, Inc., Hyundai Mobis, Alibaba Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) IPO: Offer Details, Index Inclusion, AH Premium
  • Giordano (709 HK): Offer Doc Out. Terms Declared Final
  • Merger Arb Mondays (15 Aug) – Lifestyle Intl, EVOC, Giordano, Yashili, Alliance Aviation, ResApp
  • Keepers Holdings: Exciting Soundbites From Management Call for H1 2022
  • Hyundai Mobis: Plans to Spin Off Parts & Module Units
  • CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share IPO: 2Q22/Outlook Updates and Valuation Views
  • China Internet Weekly (15Aug2022): Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, TikTok, JD, NetEase, Dingdong

China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) IPO: Offer Details, Index Inclusion, AH Premium

By Brian Freitas

  • CTG Duty Free (1880 HK) is looking to sell up to 118.176m shares to raise up to US$2.5bn. Pricing at HK$143.5-165.5/share is a 38.6%-29.2% discount to CTG Duty Free (601888).
  • Between 32-37% of the total offer size is being taken by 9 cornerstone investors and they are locked in for 6 months from listing date (expected 25 August).
  • CTG Duty Free (1880 HK) could be added to MSCI China in November, FTSE All-World and FTSE China 50 in March. Southbound Stock Connect could come online on 19 September.

Giordano (709 HK): Offer Doc Out. Terms Declared Final

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 23 June, the Cheng family made an underwhelming voluntary conditional Offer of $1.88/share for Giordano International (709 HK)
  • The Offer is conditional on the family getting to more than 50% via tendering, and the Cheng’s (and concert parties) control 24.57%.  
  • The Composite Document is now out with a first close on the 5 September.  The Offer Price has now been declared final. That’s a surprise.


Keepers Holdings: Exciting Soundbites From Management Call for H1 2022

By Sameer Taneja

  • The management of The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM) highlighted bullish trends from their call for H1 2022 for on-premise and travel retail that bode well for H2 2022.
  • We believe the company is on the cusp of backward integration by acquiring its supplier, Bodegas William and Humbert (in Spain). We believe this is an exciting future catalyst.
  • The stock trades at 6x PE FY22e (ex-cash) with seven bn+ pesos of cash on the balance sheet representing 37% of market capitalization. We see significant upside ahead.

Hyundai Mobis: Plans to Spin Off Parts & Module Units

By Douglas Kim

  • On 12 August, it was reported in numerous local media that Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS) plans to spin off its auto parts and module business units into two separate entities. 
  • Hyundai Mobis has not formally announced these spin offs although local media mentioned that these spin off plans have recently been finalized. 
  • These spin-offs by Hyundai Mobis also are likely to be preludes to the Hyundai Mobis/Hyundai Motor Group reorganization. We remain positive on Hyundai Mobis. 

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share IPO: 2Q22/Outlook Updates and Valuation Views

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • At the indicated price range, or 24.8-28.6x PER for FY22F and 16.7-19.2x for FY23F, the H-share IPO of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH) is not attractive enough. 
  • 2Q22 net profit is worse than it appears. Recent Sanya lockdown has wiped off half of the summer peak season which may even negatively affect demand during Golden Week.
  • Consensus forecasts are too optimistic and there may be another 15% downside. Given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty, risk outweighs return even at the low-end of price range.

China Internet Weekly (15Aug2022): Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, TikTok, JD, NetEase, Dingdong

By Ming Lu

  • Express parcels increased by 8% YoY in China in July.
  • TikTok was still the top non-game app in the world in July.
  • Meituan raised its prices of bike sharing on August 10.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Consumer: ASICS Corp, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asics (7936) | Strong Performance Meets Reasonable Valuation
  • ECM Weekly (14th Aug 2022) – China Tourism, A/H Listing, Hongjiu Fruit, Socar, Betagro, ThaiBev, GQG
  • Weekly Deals Digest (14 Aug) – CTG Duty Free, OZ Minerals, Lifestyle Intl., EVOC, MACA, MyDeal

Asics (7936) | Strong Performance Meets Reasonable Valuation

By Mark Chadwick

  • The stock price has rallied 40% since our last note. We are happy to take profit here, hence we label this insight as Bearish 
  • The results and full year guidance hike were positive but largely currency assisted  
  • We expect that a focus on China and Direct will drive margin expansion in the medium term

ECM Weekly (14th Aug 2022) – China Tourism, A/H Listing, Hongjiu Fruit, Socar, Betagro, ThaiBev, GQG

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, China Tourism launched its US$2.5bn IPO. 
  • There were no major placements this week and it likely to remain that way in the near future owing to it being earnings season.

Weekly Deals Digest (14 Aug) – CTG Duty Free, OZ Minerals, Lifestyle Intl., EVOC, MACA, MyDeal

By Arun George


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Consumer: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, Rakuten Inc, Dollar Index, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc, Monster Beverage, Clorox Company and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Tourism Group A/H Listing – Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End
  • CTG Duty Free H Share Listing: Valuation Insights
  • Rakuten: Turning a Corner
  • U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials
  • Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.: Atypique Distribution Rights & Other Developments
  • Monster Beverages: New Product Launches & Other Drivers
  • Clorox Co.: Innovation-Led Growth & Other Drivers

China Tourism Group A/H Listing – Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.

CTG Duty Free H Share Listing: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Rakuten: Turning a Corner

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • The biggest drawback of Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)’s share price momentum over the last few years was its Mobile business’ losses.
  • However, based on Rakuten’s projections, the Mobile business could get close to breaking even by Q4 2023.
  • With narrowing Mobile losses and outperforming E-commerce and Fintech, we think it is unreasonable for Rakuten to trade at a 40% discount to the bottom-end of the long-term trend channel.

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

By Joe Jasper

  • This is now the third Int’l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
  • Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
  • Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.: Atypique Distribution Rights & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Keurig Dr Pepper continues to battle inflationary challenges with price actions but its brand strength has been its biggest asset in the current environment.
  • With the higher prices, the company was able to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues as well as earnings.
  • Keurig Dr Pepper is on track to achieve 1 million linked households in the coming years thanks to its ongoing smart technology development, which is opening up new platforms like smart car delivery for pods.

Monster Beverages: New Product Launches & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Monster Beverages continues to witness a rise in the demand for its energy drinks and this helped the company surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues.
  • In the quarter, Monster experienced a significant rise in the cost of sales that resulted in a material reduction in gross profit.
  • Among major updates, Monster Beverage has recently released its foremost malt beverage, alcoholic flavored under the Monster brand.

Clorox Co.: Innovation-Led Growth & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Clorox Co has navigated via challenging operating conditions and it failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues.
  • As a part of the company’s IGNITE strategy, it has announced a streamlined operating model for creating a faster, simpler company.
  • One of the best ways to expand margins for Clorox has been its direct-to-consumer strategy which is gradually paying off.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Consumer: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, Betagro Group, Phu Nhuan Jewelry Jsc, Tokyo Base, Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Past A/H Listings Performance – Most of the Deals Haven’t Done Much
  • Betagro Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Muted Long Term Track Record and Operating on Razor Thin Margins
  • Vietnam Consumer Discretionary – Phu Nhuan Jewelry: Hedge Against Rising Inflation Rates
  • Tokyo Base: A Future Abroad
  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO – Peer Comparison & Valuations – Growth & Margins Stand Out Among Peers

Past A/H Listings Performance – Most of the Deals Haven’t Done Much

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) is gearing up to launch Hong Kong’s largest listing so far this year, with a reported deal size of around US$2-3bn.
  • Prior to the deal launch, we’ve had a quick look at the A/H premium, subscription and past performance of some of the earlier A/H listings.
  • Overall, most of the recent A/H listings haven’t done much over the first month.

Betagro Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Muted Long Term Track Record and Operating on Razor Thin Margins

By Clarence Chu

  • Betagro Group (1737144D TB) is looking to raise about US$600m in its upcoming Thailand IPO. 
  • Betagro is an integrated agro-industrial and food business in Thailand. The firm’s products cover all stages of the food value chain including upstream, midstream and downstream.
  • Margins have fluctuated and operating/net margins are razor thin. Over a longer term period, track record hasn’t been the greatest as well.

Vietnam Consumer Discretionary – Phu Nhuan Jewelry: Hedge Against Rising Inflation Rates

By Douglas Kim

  • Phu Nhuan Jewelry Jsc (PNJ VN) is the number one jewelry company in Vietnam. 
  • The company is benefiting from several key catalysts including reduced social distancing measures resulting in higher store visits and sales, hedge against rising inflation, and pent up demand for jewelry. 
  • The combination of higher expected earnings this year along with stable recent prices have resulted in more attractive valuations for the company.

Tokyo Base: A Future Abroad

By Michael Causton

  • Tokyo Base rebounded in 2021 thanks to strong support at home and overseas for its Japan-made designs. 
  • The fashion retailer plans to add new concepts as well as expand more quickly overseas.
  • The Japanese fashion sector has taken a beating in the market but over the medium term there will be recovery for the better retailers, particularly those with potential overseas.

Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO – Peer Comparison & Valuations – Growth & Margins Stand Out Among Peers

By Ethan Aw

  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHJF) is a multi-brand fresh fruit distributor in China with an end-to-end supply chain. They have 1.0% market share as China’s second largest fruit distributor.
  • CHJF had grown at an impressive rate even in the face of COVID-19. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison of CHJF with its listed peers.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Consumer: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, The Keepers Holdings, Inc., Kirin Holdings, Xinyi Glass Holdings, Rakuten Inc, Emperador, Betagro Group, Denso Corp, Shakey’s Pizza, Phu Nhuan Jewelry Jsc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CTG Duty Free H Share Listing: Another False Dawn?
  • Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM): Stellar Results. Significant Upside Ahead
  • Kirin: With Myanmar in the Rear-View Mirror, an Additional 30% Upside Is Quite Possible
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 10th August 2022
  • Rakuten (Neutral) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Losses Narrow but Little Good News Beyond That
  • STI Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Close to the Cutoffs
  • Betagro Pre-IPO – The Positives – Vertically Integrated and Weathered COVID Well
  • Denso (6902) | No Reason to Be Uber-Bearish
  • Shakey’s Pizza: Q2 2022 Recovery Far Better Than Expectations, Management Guidance Extremely Bullish
  • Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC (PNJ VN) – Update – Remaining positive in 2H22

CTG Duty Free H Share Listing: Another False Dawn?

By Arun George

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)/CTGDF, the largest travel retail operator in the world, aims to launch an H Share listing to raise US$2-3 billion on Friday.
  • CTGDF is a play on the normalization of domestic travel. However, the H Share listing timing is not ideal as a vital summer travel market, Sanya, is under renewed lockdown. 
  • The recovery timing has again shifted, with expectations of a 4Q recovery, but 2022 consensus expectations look slightly optimistic. We prefer to remain on the sidelines.

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM): Stellar Results. Significant Upside Ahead

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM) reported solid growth in its Q2 2022 results, with 30% revenue growth YoY(%) and 44% profit growth ahead of our expectations. 
  • The stock trades at 4.5x PE ex-cash (with ~50% of the market capitalization in cash), making it a cheap discretionary consumption plays in the Philippines with good execution.
  • Further catalysts include the potential for making an accretive acquisition. More to follow once the company has its investor call on Friday the 12th of August 2022. 

Kirin: With Myanmar in the Rear-View Mirror, an Additional 30% Upside Is Quite Possible

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s 2Q22 normalized OP of ¥46.2bn from ¥500.3bn revenue was slightly above the consensus OP of ¥45.9bn from ¥500.8bn revenue.
  • Kirin raised its 2022 revenue and normalized OP guidance by ¥40.0bn and ¥6.0bn respectively, due to the progress of profit improvement measures mainly in Coke-Northeast and Kyowa Kirin in 1H22.
  • Meanwhile, Kirin is due ¥22.4bn from MEHL for the Myanmar JV. Even though this is not the fair value, receiving at least something is a bonus in our opinion.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 10th August 2022

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

Rakuten (Neutral) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Losses Narrow but Little Good News Beyond That

By Kirk Boodry

  • Mobile losses narrowed sequentially as expected but not by much as the company missed consensus and Redex expectations for profitability
  • Rakuten also reported a 220K net subscriber loss in the quarter as point-chasing free users churned off when zero-yen tiers were cancelled but worringly, network coverage/capacity was also a factor
  • If there is a silver lining, fintech businesses Rakuten Bank and Securities posted solid results and remain on pace to IPO but negative mobile sentiment is unlikely to change

STI Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Close to the Cutoffs

By Brian Freitas


Betagro Pre-IPO – The Positives – Vertically Integrated and Weathered COVID Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Betagro Group (1737144D TB) is looking to raise about US$600m in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
  • Betagro is an integrated agro-industrial and food business in Thailand. The firm’s products cover all stages of the food value chain including upstream, midstream and downstream.
  • Betagro operates a vertically integrated model with its own production and processing capabilities. Furthermore, it utilizes a range of distribution channels for both domestic and international sales.

Denso (6902) | No Reason to Be Uber-Bearish

By Mark Chadwick

  • Denso started the fiscal year with an overly optimistic view of Toyota production – it is now too bearish 
  • Chip shortages and supply disruptions are starting to ease, making it easier for automakers to meet end demand 
  • We are bullish on the stock as we believe that Denso’s earnings will beat lowered guidance and valuations are at the bottom of the range 

Shakey’s Pizza: Q2 2022 Recovery Far Better Than Expectations, Management Guidance Extremely Bullish

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) reported a strong SWS of 77% YoY in H1 and 121% YoY in Q2 2022. Excluding Potato Corner (PC), recovery tracked >90% of 2019 levels. 
  • The management guided that ex-PC recovery was over 100% in May and July, and numbers will improve with a resurgence in people at work, resulting in an upside to SWS.
  • We see margin upside as dine-in numbers are set to increase in H2 and the company beds down its PC acquisition; the stock trades at 16x/10x FY22/FY23e.

Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC (PNJ VN) – Update – Remaining positive in 2H22

By Mirae Asset Securities

Analyst meeting update We participated in the analyst meeting of Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC (PNJ) about its 1H22 business update and the board’s viewpoints on PNJ’s prospects in 2H22: ▪ PNJ’s business results recovered for the third consecutive quarter since 3Q21, with improving same-store sales growth, as: 1) Vietnam’s consumption continued to rally in 1H22, as Vietnam returned to new normalcy; and 2) PNJ’s marketing programs have served as effective promotion.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Consumer: Kakao Pay, SOCAR, Porsche Automobil Holding Se and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Korea: Potential Inclusions & Exclusions in August 2022 Highlighted by Locals
  • SOCAR IPO Book Building Results
  • Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: July ‘22 Report
  • SOCAR IPO: Order Table, Revised Terms, & Thinking Points

MSCI Korea: Potential Inclusions & Exclusions in August 2022 Highlighted by Locals

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the potential inclusions and exclusions in the next MSCI Korea Index rebalance announcement (12 August) that are being highlighted by the locals. 
  • The potential inclusion candidates in the MSCI Korea Index emphasized by the locals in August 2022 include LG Energy Solution and Kakao Pay; potential exclusion candidate include SK Telecom. 
  • The overall assessment of the MSCI Korea Index rebalance in August is rather mixed. There are two potential inclusions (LG Energy Solution and Kakao Pay) and one exclusion (SK Telecom). 

SOCAR IPO Book Building Results

By Douglas Kim

  • SOCAR announced its IPO book building results. The IPO price has been determined at 28,000 won (18% lower than the low end of the IPO range).
  • Our base case target price for SOCAR is 27,176 won, which is 3% lower than the IPO price of 28,000 won. 
  • We remain Negative on this IPO due to lack of upside. There were 348 companies involved in the IPO survey with the final demand ratio of 56 to 1.

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: July ‘22 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven’t shown a clear trend during July/beginning of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL’s results and avoided the Heineken/Heineken Holdings trade.
  • Discounts to NAV: Alba, 42.8%; GBL, 34.5%; Heineken Holdings to 21.5%; Industrivärden C, 7.8%; Investor B, 14.3%; Porsche Automobile Holding to 29.4%. Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 16.2%.
  • Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. If anything, recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).

SOCAR IPO: Order Table, Revised Terms, & Thinking Points

By Sanghyun Park

  • SOCAR’s institutional subscription rate was 56.97 to 1. It is highly unusual for an institutional competition rate to be this low among IPOs worth more than ₩1T.
  • SOCAR eventually set the price at ₩28,000 and reduced the offering volume from 4.55M to 3.64M, resulting in deal size of ₩100B at an implied market cap of ₩970B.
  • Since Lotte Rental’s buying flow may be triggered earlier than expected, we may need to consider a swing trade if the price enters an oversold territory after listing.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Consumer: Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit, Tesla Motors, Coupang and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO: Not Very Fruitful
  • Tesla Splitsville
  • Coupang: Just About Halfway in Correction
  • Tesla Trading Strategy Until August 25th Stock Split

Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO: Not Very Fruitful

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK)  focuses on managing the entire supply chain for quality fruits grown in China, Thailand and Vietnam.
  • The company has a portfolio of 49 fruit categories and has filed for an IPO on HKEx and plans to raise proceeds of US$300m.
  • CHF’s earnings growth is slowing down while margins are trending downwards and the company’s cashflow burn is increasing

Tesla Splitsville

By Vicki Bryan

  • Tesla will split its stock 3-1, as expected, effective August 25th.
  • But investors & analysts remain split over Tesla’s falling sales & profitability
  • And whether CEO Elon Musk has become its biggest liability.

Coupang: Just About Halfway in Correction

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Leading into 2Q22 results (due 10th August 2022), we are short Coupang (CPNG US) with expectations of around 5% and 27% downside to consensus 2022 and 2023 revenue estimates.
  • Consensus has just about reached the halfway stage of a long correction process with current revenue estimates standing significantly above the pre-COVID trend.
  • Meanwhile, Coupang is under a lot of pressure to cut losses in the short term and attain the targeted long-term EBITDA margin of 7-10%.

Tesla Trading Strategy Until August 25th Stock Split

By SC Capital

  • Last Friday, Tesla shareholders approved a 3:1 stock split set to go into effect on August 25th. The stock has already rallied on these expectations, up 44% since mid-June lows. 
  • We wouldn’t be surprised if CEO Elon Musk sells into the split, given his need to shore up cash for the potential Twitter buyout in October.  
  • Both Amazon and Google outperformed the market, but sold off in the days and weeks post-split. We expect Tesla to follow this pattern, but in a more augmented fashion. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Consumer: Lifestyle International Holdings, Yashili International Holdings, Marui Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lifestyle International’s HK$5.00 Privatisation Bid
  • Merger Arb Mondays (08 Aug) – Yashili, Lifestyle, Link, Infomedia, Ramsay, ResApp, Alliance Aviation
  • Marui (8252 JP) – Increases Size of Delayed-Start Buyback, Cuts Yutai
  • Lifestyle (1212 HK): Thomas Yau’s Scheme

Lifestyle International’s HK$5.00 Privatisation Bid

By Arun George

  • Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Mr Lau, the controlling shareholder and Chairman, at HK$5.00 per scheme share, a 62.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer price is final. Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
  • The offer price is unattractive for long-term shareholders and below average sell-side price targets. Nevertheless, this deal likely goes through as the headcount test is not applicable.

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Aug) – Yashili, Lifestyle, Link, Infomedia, Ramsay, ResApp, Alliance Aviation

By Arun George


Marui (8252 JP) – Increases Size of Delayed-Start Buyback, Cuts Yutai

By Travis Lundy

  • Marui Group (8252 JP) was a long-suffering Japanese retailer with generally sub-standard locations and “different” customer base, and much of its income came from consumer credit. 
  • Since a decade ago, helped by the rise of foreign tourism income, Marui has been redeveloping itself. Michael Causton‘s insights are a great help to understanding the background. 
  • They are aiming at non-stuff retailing. Friday saw earnings, cancellation of the yutai program, a slight div hike, and an increase in the already large buyback program. It’s interesting!

Lifestyle (1212 HK): Thomas Yau’s Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Thomas Yau, Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)‘s controlling shareholder, is offering to take the company private by way of a Scheme at HK$5/share, a 62.3% premium to last close.  
  • Independent shareholders comprise 23.51% of shares out, therefore the blocking stake at the forthcoming Court Meeting is 2.351% of shares out. 
  • The Offer price is final. No dividends will be paid during the Offer period.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars