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Equity Bottom-Up Archives | Page 56 of 221 | Smartkarma

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: XM / Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • XM / Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q24, Revenue Up by 27%, Smartphone Shipments Ranked Global No. 3
  • Sun Art (6808 HK):  FY24 Unimpressive, But All Eyes On Potential Alibaba Sale
  • [Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative
  • Full Truck Alliance Q124 Results: Strong Financials Match Recent Strong Share Performance – HOLD
  • Toyota Motor Corporation: Is It Finally Making The Much-Awaited Shift Towards EVs & HEVs? – Major Drivers
  • Chailease – ROA Grinding Lower on Elevated Credit Costs
  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Q4 Result Beats Guidance; Double-Digit Profit Growth to Continue in FY25
  • A Pop in Major K-Pop Stocks Driven by Potential Easing of Korean Contents Restrictions by China
  • CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time
  • Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) – Thursday, Feb 22, 2024


XM / Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q24, Revenue Up by 27%, Smartphone Shipments Ranked Global No. 3

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue growth rate climbed up 27% YoY in 1Q24 with all businesses growing strongly.
  • Smartphone shipments grew by 34% YoY and achieved global No. 3.
  • In 1Q24, the gross margins of all major businesses obviously improved.

Sun Art (6808 HK):  FY24 Unimpressive, But All Eyes On Potential Alibaba Sale

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)‘s FY24 (fiscal year ending March) numbers were overall unimpressive, with sales down 13% yoy and net loss increasing to RMB1.6bn.
  • The new CEO’s strategy is to refocus on SSSG of offline traffic and restore price competitiveness.  April and May SSSG improved. 
  • The stock is up 20% since my initial insight on the name in March, and I believe more upside remains.

[Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative

By Eric Wen

  • In a tough macro environment with travel as perhaps the only bright spot in consumption
  • However, equally compelling is the demand negatives of overseas travel as a somewhat luxurious consumption item and tough competition at home;
  • Given the stock’s valuation, we maintain the rating as SELL but raise TP to US$45/ADS, implying 2025 PE of 15x.

Full Truck Alliance Q124 Results: Strong Financials Match Recent Strong Share Performance – HOLD

By Daniel Hellberg

  • FTA’s revenue growth accelerated in Q124 and exceeded management guidance
  • Gross and OpInc margins (cash basis) both improved sharply in Q124
  • Growth, profitability, mix improved, but FTA no longer so cheap; HOLD

Toyota Motor Corporation: Is It Finally Making The Much-Awaited Shift Towards EVs & HEVs? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Toyota Motor Corporation recently concluded its fiscal year ended March 2024 with notable financial results and established expectations for the upcoming fiscal year.
  • The company’s actual operating income reached a record JPY 5.35 trillion, significantly bolstered by support and cooperation from various stakeholders, including employees, suppliers, and dealers.
  • This substantial figure reflects the company’s commitment to region and product-based management over many years.

Chailease – ROA Grinding Lower on Elevated Credit Costs

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Chailease is facing pressure in all of its markets, Taiwan, China and Asean, with no signs of easing.
  • High frequency data (HFD) from Chailease gives us April monthly numbers, with double digit  net profit decline and a greater EPS decline
  • Credit costs are now elevated at peak levels since early FY19 for the past two quarters, and we wonder if FY24 will see far higher figures, given economic weaknesses?

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Q4 Result Beats Guidance; Double-Digit Profit Growth to Continue in FY25

By Tina Banerjee

  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP) reported 18% revenue growth in Q4FY24, driven by C&V and TBCT businesses. With the steady progress in profit improvement measures, operating profit rose 45%.
  • For FY25, the company expects revenue of ¥980B (up 6% YoY), operating profit of ¥165B (up 18% YoY), and net profit of ¥122B (up 15% YoY).
  • The company remains cautious and provided a conservative FY25 guidance. Improvement in any its assumptions provides room for upward revision of the guidance.

A Pop in Major K-Pop Stocks Driven by Potential Easing of Korean Contents Restrictions by China

By Douglas Kim

  • The major K-Pop stocks had the biggest up day so far this year on 23 May, driven by potential easing of Korean cultural contents restrictions by the Chinese government. 
  • In the past nine years, there has been a ban on Korean singers’ performances in China.
  • Among the major K-Pop stocks, we continue to have a Positive View on S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) but bearish on HYBE (352820 KS) and YG Entertainment (122870 KS).

CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is a laggard among the Chinese securities companies. With the rebound in HSI and Shanghai Composite, such divergence should narrow.
  • The investment banking business should recover following the rebound in the secondary market and equity valuations. HK’s IPO funds raised are forecast to double in 2024.
  • At 0.4x 12-month P/B, the market has deeply discounted CICC’s earnings outlook. However, as earnings recovery will be fast, its share price will react rapidly.

Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) – Thursday, Feb 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Marvell has historically performed well in the market but is now shifting its focus to growth areas such as AI, cloud computing, and faster data networks
  • Despite recent cyclical weakness, the company is expected to see improved performance and strong earnings growth
  • Reactivating the account is a strategic move to capitalize on Marvell’s promising future prospects and potential increase in stock value

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: PDD (PDD US): 1Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • PDD (PDD US): 1Q24, Rev Up by 131% and Margin Reaching Historical High
  • Fancl (4921 JP):  Worth A Bet Given Negative Impact Of Kobayashi Products Recall Subsiding
  • Daifuku (6383) | Time to Pick up Global Leader
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-May-2024): UMC begins move-in at Singapore fab.
  • Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 2: Bandhan and UBI added to the buy list
  • [Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: Delaying BEV Is the Wrong Approach to Competition
  • AMAT. No Beat, No Raise, No Slump. But Why?
  • KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q24, Strong GMV and Historical High Op Margin Again
  • New Experiments in China’s Crowded EV Space
  • INOD: Profitable AI, Initiating


PDD (PDD US): 1Q24, Rev Up by 131% and Margin Reaching Historical High

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue rose by 131% in 1Q24 with advertising up by 56% YoY and commission up by 327% YoY.
  • In 1Q24, both the operating profit and the operating margin reached record highs.
  • The historical price / sales ratios suggests a significant upside. Buy.

Fancl (4921 JP):  Worth A Bet Given Negative Impact Of Kobayashi Products Recall Subsiding

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Fancl Corp (4921 JP)‘s share price has declined 18% year-to-date, greatly under-performing the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) which was up 17% year-to-date. 
  • The company recently announced FY24 results (fiscal year ending March).  Sales grew 7% yoy and operating profit grew 60% yoy in FY24. 
  • I believe the stock price is attractive at 23x 2024 PE with 15% expected earnings CAGR for the next 3 years.

Daifuku (6383) | Time to Pick up Global Leader

By Mark Chadwick

  • Daifuku released FY3/24 results on 10 May. Since then the share price has declined by 15%, giving investors an attractive entry point.
  • Daifuku is a key beneficiary of warehouse automation, which is forecast to grow at a CAGR of over 6%, with industry spend projected to reach $37 billion by 2030
  • We expect the market to price in an order recovery in the core electronics segment and believe that the MTP is yet to be factored into the current share price.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-May-2024): UMC begins move-in at Singapore fab.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • UMC Singapore fab is in the process of moving in new equipment to enhance its production capabilities.
  • Japan has a target of manufacturing 12 million software-defined vehicles by the year 2030.
  • India continues to enforce import restrictions on IT products, impacting the sector’s growth and development. Power HV brings advanced technology to transformer monitoring in the energy industry for increased reliability.

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 2: Bandhan and UBI added to the buy list

By Victor Galliano

  • We add value plays Bandhan and UBI to the buy list alongside HDFC Bank and Baroda, turning neutral from negative on SBI. Bandhan is our core Indian bank pick, UBI benefits from improving return trends

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: Delaying BEV Is the Wrong Approach to Competition

By Eric Wen

  • LI Auto’s decision to push out its BEV launch to 2025 is a delay of multi-faces at a time when China’s EV market is chaotically.
  • We keep rating @BUY because LI still possesses the SUV niche, enjoys a healthy margin and have ample cash. 
  • We cut TP from US$40 to US$25 and maintain BUY.

AMAT. No Beat, No Raise, No Slump. But Why?

By William Keating

  • AMAT Q124 revenues of $6.65 billion, in line with guidance and essentially flat both QoQ and YoY. Current quarter guidance also flat sequentially
  • WFE valuations are at all time record highs while revenues remain on life support from China
  • If China revenues fall off before non-China returns to growth, the WFE segment could be in for a world of pain.

KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q24, Strong GMV and Historical High Op Margin Again

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q24, revenue grew by 17% YoY and e-commerce GMV grew by 28% YoY.
  • Both the operating margin and the operating profit reached historical highs in 1Q24.
  • We set an upside of 47% and the price target at HK$86.00. Buy.

New Experiments in China’s Crowded EV Space

By Eric Wen

  • Making EV itself doesn’t make money, which is why independents like Nio and XPeng are thinking alternative ways to breakeven;
  • Tesla envisioned to make money through scale, of which BYD bettered. Tesla also envisioned to make money from autonomous driving (ADS);
  • Nio plans to sell its battery swapping service while XPeng is selling ADS to Volkswagen. Both are experiments aiming at breakeven. Both also have new models to launch.

INOD: Profitable AI, Initiating

By Hamed Khorsand

  • INOD is benefiting from the movement to incorporate artificial intelligence (“A.I.”) into many applications
  • INOD provides the datasets required for training A.I. and it has quickly become a leading provider of such service
  • The Company is now on pace to grow at a faster pace than expected and should lead to higher earnings and free cash flow in coming quarters

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Leaning In with Product Initiatives and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Leaning In with Product Initiatives
  • GAI-Related Numbers and Quotes from C1Q24 Earnings
  • Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q24, Quite Good Quarter, But Stock Up by 37% in Three Months
  • What Next for Varun Beverages: The Next Leg of Growth Drivers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-May-2024): Pompeo urges Taiwan to innovate for chip dominance.
  • Japan Post Insurance – Weakening Policies In Force and Meaningful Hits from Non-Operational Items
  • Cipla (CIPLA IN): Strong Q4 Performance; Future Growth Drivers Being Added; Promoter Stake Sale
  • Apple Inc.: Can The New Partnership With OpenAI & Other AI Initiatives Help Them Up Their Game? – Major Drivers
  • Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Likely reserves increase at Hibiscus following better than expected drilling results
  • Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) – Wednesday, Feb 21, 2024


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Leaning In with Product Initiatives

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab‘s 1Q2024 reflected strong performance from its deliveries and mobility segments despite seasonal headwinds, with growth driven by new initiatives rather than increased incentives, with affordable products leading.
  • The company has launched new products in the premium segment, with advanced bookings improving the most recent initiative, while its saver products are increasing spend, frequency, and retention. 
  • Another key feature of the 1Q2024 has been the strong performance of groceries, driven by alliances with retailers, and booking higher growth than food deliveries. 

GAI-Related Numbers and Quotes from C1Q24 Earnings

By Eric Wen

  • Generative AI (GAI) helps capex, no doubt. But key question is whether capex can yield to revenue and profits;
  • Content creation industry is sure to realize revenue and profits. iQiyi and NetEase already said so with concreate examples;
  • Advertising can realize revenue by better matching of ads inventory and perhaps improve inventory utilization.

Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q24, Quite Good Quarter, But Stock Up by 37% in Three Months

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q24, Trip’s revenue grew strongly by 29% YoY with all business booming.
  • China and Trip achieved a lot overseas travelers in March and the Labor Day Holidays.
  • However, the stock price has risen 37% in the past three months.

What Next for Varun Beverages: The Next Leg of Growth Drivers

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • VBL has a history of commanding high growth through acquisitions, product portfolio and geographical expansions and operating leverage
  • Varun is now focusing on interesting geographies and products which will aid its next level of growth
  • There could be more than bigger success stories like Sting for Varun Beverages if it can repeat history

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-May-2024): Pompeo urges Taiwan to innovate for chip dominance.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Pompeo advises Taiwan to innovate constantly in chip industry to maintain dominance and not be complacent.
  • LG Energy Solutions may surpass Panasonic in launching mass production of 46800 batteries, a significant development in the industry.
  • Canadian startup CEMWorks is positioning itself as a key player in semiconductors, 5G, and AI with its simulation tool. SDC and LGD lead OLED monitor market with fast growth and gaming focus. China’s internet giants see 1Q24 revenue soar thanks to AI technology.

Japan Post Insurance – Weakening Policies In Force and Meaningful Hits from Non-Operational Items

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) shows us that worsening policies in force is far more important to earnings than staggering growth of new policies.
  • Returns and profit growth are weak and this should matter more than a puritanical focus on new policies, embedded value.
  • Non-Operational line items, likely hedging costs and reserve adjustments, are cancelling out most all positives in operations.

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Strong Q4 Performance; Future Growth Drivers Being Added; Promoter Stake Sale

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q4FY24, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) posted 10% YoY revenue growth to INR61.6B. Despite surging R&D expenditure, EBITDA increased 13% YoY to INR13B, leading to 54bps margin expansion to 21.4%.
  • New launches in U.S. and outperformance in the domestic market driven by chronic portfolio should drive the growth. For FY25, the company has guided for EBITDA margin of 24.5–25.5%.
  • Cipla shares soared 15% YTD. Last week, the promoters, Hamied family sold 2.5% stake in the company for ~INR26B, igniting a rally in share price.

Apple Inc.: Can The New Partnership With OpenAI & Other AI Initiatives Help Them Up Their Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Q2 Fiscal Year 2024 was a good quarter for Apple Inc. as they saw growth in several international markets and set numerous records worldwide.
  • The company reported revenue of $90.8 billion and an EPS record of $1.53.
  • They also announced revenue records in over a dozen countries and regions, and an all-time revenue record in Indonesia.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Likely reserves increase at Hibiscus following better than expected drilling results

By Auctus Advisors

  • The DHIBM-7P pilot vertical well encountered 24 metres of net pay in an overall hydrocarbon column of 37 metres.
  • The well was drilled from the pilot hole of the recently drilled Hibiscus South well that had already encountered 5-6 mmbbl recoverable resources.
  • The bottom part of this well had been plugged ahead of drilling a horizontal producer in the area (this horizontal well will be drilled next).

Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) – Wednesday, Feb 21, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dutch Bros has experienced growth during the COVID-19 pandemic but faces challenges in a more competitive market
  • Despite improved financial metrics, the company is expected to see weakness in comparable sales and new store economics
  • Investors are optimistic about Dutch Bros’ growth potential but there are concerns about its ability to sustain profitability and achieve long-term growth targets amid market challenges.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Li Auto (LI US): 1Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Li Auto (LI US): 1Q24, A List of Bad News
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-May-2024): EVs and smart driving tech hit by Chinese car market price war.
  • Sumitomo Metal Mining –  A Shiny Mix of Gold, Copper and Nickel
  • 2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Q3FY24 Margins Take Hit; Tepid Q4 Expected
  • Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) Q1 FY24 Concall: Margin Recovery in H2 FY24
  • Mandarin Oriental: Don’t Lose Money
  • GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.: Government Funding Partnership & 3 Critical Growth Drivers
  • Wynn Resorts: Macau Operations
  • Henry Schein Inc.: A Tale Of An Improving Market Position with New Products – Major Drivers
  • Ricegrowers Ltd – Ample rice encourages lower plantings


Li Auto (LI US): 1Q24, A List of Bad News

By Ming Lu

  • Operating profit turned negative in 1Q24 compared to 1Q23 due to the price war and the failure of new model.
  • The company disappeared from the industry top-10 list of sales volume and revenue growth slowed down to zero in April.
  • All cross-sectional comparisons suggest a Sell rating for the stock.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-May-2024): EVs and smart driving tech hit by Chinese car market price war.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • EVs and smart driving systems in China’s car market impacted by price competition, leading to changes in industry dynamics.
  • Blue carbon uncertainties could hinder progress towards achieving net-zero goals, says scientist, highlighting need for further research.
  • Indian solar firm reducing dependence on Chinese imports for solar components to enhance self-sufficiency, aiming for greater control over supply chain.

Sumitomo Metal Mining –  A Shiny Mix of Gold, Copper and Nickel

By Rikki Malik

  • Company Forecasts extremely conservative at current and expected metal prices
  • Scarcity Value for a liquid, large-cap gold miner in Japan
  • Balance Sheet will allow future share buybacks and dividend in the harvesting phase

2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Q3FY24 Margins Take Hit; Tepid Q4 Expected

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q3FY24, Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported 8% YoY increase in revenue to ¥26B, ahead of estimate of ¥24B, mainly driven by the exchange rate impact of higher foreign currencies.
  • Higher SG&A expenses impacted the profitability. Q3FY24 operating profit margin declined to 23.3% from 26.6% in Q3FY23, while net profit margin decreased to 16.0% from 18.5% during the same time.
  • In Q4FY24, revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY to ¥19.6B. Operating and net profits are anticipated to plunge 74% and 26%, YoY to ¥417M and ¥832M, respectively.

Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) Q1 FY24 Concall: Margin Recovery in H2 FY24

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) reported Q1 FY24 systemwide sales up 15% YoY, but profits down by 15% YoY due to margin compression owing to higher opex costs.
  • Management stuck to its mid-teens YoY revenue/profit growth guidance, citing that margin expansion will happen in the latter half of the year due to its visibility on costs.
  • Trading at 13x FY24e PE, with a long runway for growth owing to the success in expanding Potato Corner, we believe the company can be a multi-bagger.

Mandarin Oriental: Don’t Lose Money

By Superfluous Value

  • Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer of $3.8b for the site in 2017.

  • For those unfamiliar, this site is being massively re-developed into retail and office- not a hotel as might be expected given the company.

  • Mandarin is transitioning to a capital light hotel management model by selling its owned hotels and maintaining management contracts with the purchasers.


GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.: Government Funding Partnership & 3 Critical Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • GlobalFoundries Inc. has presented its first quarterly financial results for the fiscal year of 2024.
  • Despite facing some challenges, the outcomes have exceeded the guidance ranges indicated in the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings call.
  • The industry is showing signs of emerging from a period of inventory correction and uncertainty due to ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical issues.

Wynn Resorts: Macau Operations

By Baptista Research

  • The first quarter of 2024 marked a period of continued momentum for Wynn Resorts.
  • The company’s earnings call transcript highlighted several significant developments, representing positive and negative factors that could be relevant for potential investors.
  • Starting on the bright side, Wynn Resorts reported an all-time record property EBITDAR of $647 million during Q1 2024, owing to the company’s solid team delivering five-star service and unique experiences to their guests.

Henry Schein Inc.: A Tale Of An Improving Market Position with New Products – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Henry Schein Inc, the leading global healthcare solutions provider, recently reported its results for the first quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported solid earnings driven by gross profit and gross margin expansion as it recovers from last quarter’s cyber-incident.
  • It’s worth noting that even with the cyber incident, Henry Schein marked an improvement in its merchandise sales growth.

Ricegrowers Ltd – Ample rice encourages lower plantings

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Ricegrowers Limited, trading as SunRice (ASX:SGLLV), has updated rice growers on paddy prices for CY23 and CY24, and more importantly provided planting guidance for CY25.
  • Despite additional US supply and continued shipping disruptions, the lower end of the CY23 paddy price range (sold from FY24) has been increased $10/tonne to $425/tonne.
  • The CY24 price range is unchanged at $370 to $430/tonne given the above uncertainties.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): A16 Technology Continues to Evolve in 1H27. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): A16 Technology Continues to Evolve in 1H27.
  • Pinduoduo(PDD US): Growth Stock Priced as Value Play
  • BYD Electronic (285 HK): Will HSI Inclusion Be a Kiss of Death?
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Trading at New High Range, CHT Spread at Short Levels
  • China Consumption (20 May 2024): Leapmotor, Stellantis, GAC, Honda, Li Auto, ZTO, Tencent Music
  • China Healthcare Weekly (May.19)- Decoupling Deadline with WuXi,Biotech Classification,Deals Cooling
  • Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Look Cautiously to the Long Term
  • Arista Networks: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Networking
  • Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Thai and International Patients Drives 1Q24 Result
  • The Hershey Company: How Are The Latest North America Confectionery Market Developments Impacting Them? – Major Drivers


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): A16 Technology Continues to Evolve in 1H27.

By Patrick Liao

  • After Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) N2 technology in 2H25F, A16 technology will be pilot-production in 2H26 and likely unveiled in around 1H27.
  • TSMC A16 technology will be utilizing best-in-class backside power delivery solution.
  • Si Photonics co-exists with traditional Substrates packages, linked with fiber.

Pinduoduo(PDD US): Growth Stock Priced as Value Play

By Eric Chen

  • We are more bullish on PDD’s 1Q24 results on the back of better monetization of domestic e-commerce business and fast and quality growth of TEMU.
  • We now expect 1Q24 adjusted earnings to almost double yoy to RMB20 billion, much higher than our previous estimate of 50% yoy growth and exceeding consensus by ~30%.
  • Moreover, we believe earnings growth will be steady throughout 2024 instead of slowing down as we thought. 10x FY24 earnings against 80% yoy growth lead us to see 50%+ upside.

BYD Electronic (285 HK): Will HSI Inclusion Be a Kiss of Death?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While historically many new inclusions to the HSI have performed disappointingly after their addition, BYD Electronic (285 HK) looks unlikely to follow such a pattern.  
  • Its share price has underperformed YTD, absolute PER valuations are not stretched and forward P/B multiple is only at the historical average level. These provide a good buffer.
  • Its industry and business are not at structural and cyclical peaks, with further growth prospects from AI-enhanced products and solutions. A 33% surge in 1Q24 earnings also adds comfort.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Trading at New High Range, CHT Spread at Short Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +17% Premium; Has Remained Above 15% for Over Nearly Two Weeks
  • ASE: +11.8% Premium; We Continue to View 14%+ as Range to Short From
  • CHT: +0.6% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Spread at Current Level

China Consumption (20 May 2024): Leapmotor, Stellantis, GAC, Honda, Li Auto, ZTO, Tencent Music

By Ming Lu

  • Stellantis invested in Leapmotor and their joint venture will sell electric cars in Europe.
  • Two vehicle producers, GAC and Li Auto, are dismissing employees.
  • Tencent Music’s music revenue grew by 43% YoY in 1Q24.

China Healthcare Weekly (May.19)- Decoupling Deadline with WuXi,Biotech Classification,Deals Cooling

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In 24Q1, the innovative drug projects and medical device projects ranked top two in domestic investment and financing deals, but investment in the field of AI cooled down.
  • For biotech that located in China and only for China markets, it’s hard for them to generate good returns. It is recommended not to spend too much time on them.
  • As the US House Committee advances the BIOSECURE Act to restrict WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio last week, we listed some points worth the attention at this stage.This is far from over.

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Look Cautiously to the Long Term

By Scott Foster

  • The company has slashed FY Sep-24 guidance after missing 1H sales and profit targets by wide margins. Dividend maintained, 2-for-1 split planned and buyback under consideration.
  • Capex has been cut, reflecting lower growth expectations. R&D also. Inventory adjustments will eventually be completed, but Chinese competiton will remain a problem.
  • The share price has dropped 30% in the past year and 10.5% since May 8, putting the shares on 27 times EPS guidance. Still not cheap, but getting there.

Arista Networks: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Networking

By Baptista Research

  • Arista Networks is well-positioned to take advantage of the rapidly growing opportunities in the artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing landscape.
  • For the first quarter of 2024, the company reported revenue of $1.57 billion, representing a 16.3% year-over-year growth.
  • Contributing a substantial 16.9% of this revenue was services and software support renewals.

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Thai and International Patients Drives 1Q24 Result

By Tina Banerjee

  • Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) posted double-digit growth revenue, EBITDA, and net profit in 1Q24. International and Thai patients reported revenue growth of 12% and 10%, YoY, respectively.
  • EBITDA grew at a faster pace of 13% YoY to THB6.8B, due to tight cost control. Net profit of THB4.1B beat estimates.
  • BDMS opened one secondary care hospital with 113 registered beds in March. Phuket Cancer Center is expected to start operation in 3Q24.

The Hershey Company: How Are The Latest North America Confectionery Market Developments Impacting Them? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Hershey Company reported optimistic market share trends in their Q1 2024 earnings.
  • The firm has seen strong performances especially in seasonal sales and takeaway, with innovation being a significant growth driver.
  • Its Reese’s Caramel product was quite popular among customers, with it not only being well received, but also helping drive strong merchandising especially around the Super Bowl season.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Indian Forensic Playbook: Guidelines to Identify and Avoid Storified Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Indian Forensic Playbook: Guidelines to Identify and Avoid Storified Stocks
  • Zen Technologies: Building a Strong Moat in Indian Defence Theme
  • A Few Generative AI Takeaways From C1Q24 Earnings
  • EM Digital Banks – We Turn Positive on KakaoBank and Inter, Cautious on Nubank and Neutral on PAN
  • Dentsu Group – FY24 prospects weighted to H2
  • Basilea Pharmaceutica – Cresemba milestone payments continue to roll in


Indian Forensic Playbook: Guidelines to Identify and Avoid Storified Stocks

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Indian SMEs are new hot investment avenues selling stories to investors which might end to a case of pump and dump.
  • SEBI in last few months have identified such cases in SMEs and microcaps.
  • We delved into key guidelines on Indian Forensics to Identify and Avoid Storified Stocks

Zen Technologies: Building a Strong Moat in Indian Defence Theme

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Zen Technologies (ZEN IN) expands product range to drones, anti-drone systems, and medical simulators, enhancing opportunities beyond government contracts.
  • Strong order book of Rs 1,401 crore, significant R&D investment, and government support for indigenous defence manufacturing drive growth.
  • Zen Technologies (ZEN IN) diversified product portfolio and strategic government support position it well for significant growth in the defence and simulation markets.

A Few Generative AI Takeaways From C1Q24 Earnings

By Eric Wen

  • The key takeaway from this earning season on the topic of generative AI (GAI) is that in-house generated content has the greatest potential for cost savings;
  • Taking a step further, mid-sized video platforms can also use AI to skip the curator layer, similar to Pinduoduo using algorithm to bypass small merchants to connect directly to factories;
  • We also notice that general media platforms with ample advertising inventories tend to perform better with AI’s help, which is why ads of Tencent’s advertising performed better than Baidu’s.

EM Digital Banks – We Turn Positive on KakaoBank and Inter, Cautious on Nubank and Neutral on PAN

By Victor Galliano

  • We turn positive on KakaoBank, for its increasingly secure competitive positioning in Korea, its attractive digital efficiency ratio, its low customer acquisition cost and for its high activity rate
  • We switch our buy rating from PAN to Inter as the latter has improved operationally, it is sound on capital and attractive on valuations
  • Nubank is executing well, but we remain cautious on Nubank shares as we continue to see potential capital constraints as a key risk, along with its stretched valuations

Dentsu Group – FY24 prospects weighted to H2

By Edison Investment Research

Dentsu’s Q1 results indicate a slow start to the year, with organic net revenue down by 3.7%. However, prospects are improving, buoyed by new business wins and weighted to H2, which leave full year expectations (and our forecasts) unchanged. The One dentsu initiative, bringing together skill sets in consulting, technology, media and creative, is supporting improved pitch win rates, and giving greater coherence and consistency to the group product and service offering. We expect this to be a central element of the new management medium-term strategy, set to be unveiled during H2. The rating remains at a substantial discount to global peers, which we anticipate will narrow as evidence of renewed growth builds.


Basilea Pharmaceutica – Cresemba milestone payments continue to roll in

By Edison Investment Research

Basilea Pharmaceutica has announced the triggering of a US$1.25m milestone payment from Pfizer, triggered by sustained strong sales of Cresemba in the Asia-Pacific region and China. This is the second FY24 milestone payment for the region and is incremental to the payment received in March. We note that, according to the latest available data, total in-market sales of Cresemba amounted to US$473m in the 12 months ending December 2023, representing a +26% year-on-year increase. Basilea is preparing to launch its Phase III programme for fosmanogepix, a broad-spectrum antifungal therapy, with the first of two Phase III trials expected to initiate in mid-2024. The company also made positive regulatory and operational strides with its lead antibiotic asset, Zevtera (following FDA approval in April 2024), and we eagerly await the announcement of a potential US commercial partner.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Japan Post Bank – It’s like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank – It’s like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever
  • [Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value
  • Eoflow: Financing Requirements, Changing Shareholding Structure, and the Next Steps
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-May-2024): AI PC term will be obsolete soon, tech titans predict at pre-Computex event.
  • JD.com (9618 HK):  1Q24 Results On Track
  • KPIT: Stellar Growth Continues
  • LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Back on Track | All Set for a Strong FY25
  • Expedia Group: Advancements in GenAI and Personalized Travel Experiences! – Major Drivers
  • WestRock Company: Mill Closure
  • SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Resumption of US Sales Growth Raises Hope for Annual Profit


Japan Post Bank – It’s like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks. 
  • The company’s cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs.
  • Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA.

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value

By Ying Pan

  • Tencent reported C1Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 9.1%, 26% vs. our estimates and in-line, 16%, 21% vs. consensus;
  • Game revenues were below our expectations while advertising was above, leading to a gross margin beat of 2.73ppt, powered by video account and AI. 
  • We raised our TP to HK$450 to reflect the shift to better-margin revenue mix and upcoming revenue acceleration.

Eoflow: Financing Requirements, Changing Shareholding Structure, and the Next Steps

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the additional financing requirements, changed shareholding structure, and the next steps for Eoflow. 
  • Eoflow is one of the best performing stocks in the Korean stock market in the past one month as its shares have soared 249% in this period.
  • The details of the oral argument (Insulet vs Eoflow) at the U.S. Appellate Court suggest that the U.S. Appellate Court may rule in favor of Eoflow.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-May-2024): AI PC term will be obsolete soon, tech titans predict at pre-Computex event.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Tech titans foresee the obsolescence of AI PC by Computex 2024, sparking anticipation for new technological advancements.
  • Disney and Warner’s collaboration in the streaming market introduces fresh competition, shaking up the industry landscape.
  • ASML’s thriving in the Angstrom Era credits its success to relentless innovation and adaptability within the semiconductor sector.

JD.com (9618 HK):  1Q24 Results On Track

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • JD.com (9618 HK) announced a set of in-line results for 1Q24.  Sales growth was 7% yoy, in-line with my 1Q24 preview.
  • Operating profit margin for the core JD retail business declined by 0.5ppt yoy to 4.1%, which is also in-line with my preview. 
  • The positive surprise was a big reduction in losses in the JD logistics business, which brought the overall non-GAAP net profit growth to 17% yoy for 1Q24. 

KPIT: Stellar Growth Continues

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • KPIT reported a strong Q4FY24 led by 5.1% QoQ revenue growth in constant currency (CC) terms. EBITDA margin came in better than expected at 20.7%.
  • Overall, in line with our projection, KPIT even beat its upgraded guidance by posting YoY revenue growth of 39%+ in CC terms vs 37%+ guided.
  • KPIT has guided for a strong FY25 with revenue guidance of 18-22% in CC terms and EBITDA margin of 20.5%+.

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Back on Track | All Set for a Strong FY25

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • LICHF faced some teething issues with technology during past 1Y due to which growth and reported asset quality had been subdued. However, with strong Q4FY24, LICHF is back on track.
  • LICHF reported strong growth in disbursements. Q4FY24 disbursements were INR 18200cr+, a growth of 20%+ QoQ. NIM came in higher than expected at 3.15%, despite spike in bond yields.
  • Asset quality improved significantly with Stage 3 assets declining to 3.31% vs 4.26% QoQ and Stage 2 assets declining to 4.20% vs 4.54% QoQ.

Expedia Group: Advancements in GenAI and Personalized Travel Experiences! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Expedia Group’s Q1 2024 performance reflected a primarily healthy market environment, but growth differed according to geographical area and product line.
  • Notably, North America had the slowest growth compared to other major international markets.
  • Additionally, despite meeting projections on revenue and EBITDA, Expedia experienced weaker gross bookings, with its Vrbo business producing slower recovery than anticipated.

WestRock Company: Mill Closure

By Baptista Research

  • WestRock Company, in the 3rd Fiscal Quarter 2023, posted a net sales of $5.1 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $802 million, higher than expected due to strong execution, productivity gains, and moderating input costs.
  • CEO David Sewell attributed the strong results to the firm’s resilience and the hard work of its team, even as they faced comparisons with record results from the prior year quarter.
  • However, certain challenges were also observed.

SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Resumption of US Sales Growth Raises Hope for Annual Profit

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1Q24, SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS) posted Xcopri U.S. sales of KRW90.9B, up 69% YoY and 17% QoQ. The company remains confident to meet annual sales guidance of KRW390–416B.
  • 1Q24 operating profit reached KRW10B from an operating loss of KRW23B in 1Q23. The company aims to achieve profitability throughout 2024.
  • The company is seeking a second product to strengthen its U.S. and global business. Xcopri also has potential for indication expansion in near future.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (9988 HK):  Core Segments Moving Into The Right Direction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK):  Core Segments Moving Into The Right Direction
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-May-2024): Microsoft China AI teams may relocate due to US restrictions.
  • [Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$85) Review]: Positive Transformation Still Underway…BUY on Dip
  • Sea Limited (SE US) – Making Hay
  • Mitsui E&S – Near Record ROE as Profit Continues to Expand From Multiple Drivers
  • Asian Dividend Gems: DGB Financial Group
  • JSW Energy: Powering India’s Future
  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi Is Gathering Momentum; Imminent Competition May Spoil the Party
  • Nissin Corp (9066) – A Dirt Cheap $400m JP Logistics Company…
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?


Alibaba (9988 HK):  Core Segments Moving Into The Right Direction

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • On first look, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) missed on margins in 4QFY24 as adjusted EBITA declined by 5% yoy.
  • We can give the company the benefit of the doubt given that the important segments of the company are heading into the right direction.  
  • Alibaba returned USD13.4bn and USD16.5bn to shareholders in FY23 and FY24, compared to the current market cap of USD197bn

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-May-2024): Microsoft China AI teams may relocate due to US restrictions.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Microsoft’s China AI teams relocate due to US rules, focusing on Wi-Fi 7 development for improved connectivity and performance.
  • Amazon’s stake in Alchip suggests potential synergy in AI tech and expanded market reach, while Kymco launches eco-friendly e-scooter.
  • Tencent Cloud partners with BRI and Hi Cloud Indo for banking innovation, while Veolia opens first regeneration plant in China for sustainable water treatment. Tron Future secures funding for counter-drone tech.

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$85) Review]: Positive Transformation Still Underway…BUY on Dip

By Ying Pan

  • BABA reported CY1Q24 top line, GAAP operating profit and non-GAAP net income 0.9%, (4.6%) and (6.7%) vs. consensus, and in-line, in-line, (6.9%) vs. our estimate;
  • Results reaffirmed our positive view as increased investment is leading to significant improvement in key businesses: (1) Taobao/Tmall stabilized, (2) overseas e-commerce accelerated along with overseas AntFin and Cainiao
  • We expect pay-off from its strategy shift in 2H of the year. Spin-off, dividends,and share buy-backs provide valuation support until then.We maintain BUY and US$85 TP, implying 9.5x CY25 P/E.

Sea Limited (SE US) – Making Hay

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sea Limited (SE US) booked a strong set of 1Q2024 results from a GMV, revenue and adjusted EBITDA perspective, with fears of greater competition from TikTok failing to materialise. 
  • The company has been investing in growth across all segments, with e-commerce driving and digital financial services driving growth but digital entertainment also seeing a return to growth mode. 
  • Sea Limited continues to focus on its core competitiveness in pricing, improving service quality, and lowering the cost to serve through SPX Express, with advertising becoming a more meaningful contributor.  

Mitsui E&S – Near Record ROE as Profit Continues to Expand From Multiple Drivers

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Profit continues to expand at Mitsui E&S after its transition to a holding company, now reporting over 400% profit growth for 9 months YTD.
  • The company is doing well to keep its operating costs down, with an improving funding structure and balance, as its revenue grows more than COGs.
  • We wonder if there will be more revisions upward to profit, with new initiatives and with a more proven recent track record.

Asian Dividend Gems: DGB Financial Group

By Douglas Kim

  • On 16 May, it was reported that the Korean financial regulators have approved DGB Daegu Bank to become the 7th commercial bank in Korea. 
  • DGB Daegu Bank is the core entity of DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) which currently has a market cap of 1.4 trillion won (US$1.0 billion).
  • This change will allow the company to expand in the more lucrative metropolitan Seoul and other regions in Korea. We have a positive view of DGB Financial Group (139130 KS).

JSW Energy: Powering India’s Future

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • A Detailed understanding of Thermal cum Renewable Power house JSW Energy Ltd (JSW IN) Business and their ambitious target to achieve 10 GW by FY25.
  • Strategy 2.O, where company is planning for 20GW by 2025, energy storage system.
  • JSW Energy’s strategic acquisitions and focus on renewables enhance growth prospects, with a vision to become a leading renewable energy provider.

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi Is Gathering Momentum; Imminent Competition May Spoil the Party

By Tina Banerjee

  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has guided for FY25 Leqembi revenue of ¥56.5B (~$366M), with ¥43.5B from U.S., and ¥10.0B from Japan. In FY24, Leqembi reported worldwide revenue of ¥4.2B.
  • Leqembi is expected to grow significantly due to increase in prescriptions following the progress in the development of AD diagnosis and treatment pathways in the U.S. and Japan.
  • The current rally can be short lived, as the competitor drug is expected to get FDA approval in 3Q24.

Nissin Corp (9066) – A Dirt Cheap $400m JP Logistics Company…

By Altay Capital

  • Nissin Corp (TYO 9066) bought back 23.6% of their outstanding shares in a single day on May 10th and also doubled their dividend.
  • The result? The stock went up about 39% (up 72% YTD).
  • I already had a full sized position in Nissin Corp and despite being up big on it I added to my position at ¥4,265.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan Tech and Nvidia Rally Ahead of Nvidia Earnings Next Week; Microsoft Build Conference Could Showcase Edge AI Copilot
  • Hon Hai: Traditional Server Market Now Adding to AI Growth; Expects Market Share Gains in 2024E 
  • Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire
  • Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – May 2024
  • Alibaba (BABA US): Taobao/Tmall Is Back
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (16-May-2024): Impact of US tariff hike on China’s clean energy.
  • Cigniti Technologies – A Special Situation Bet
  • What’s Wrong with UPL?
  • Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares
  • Recruit: As We Said… Weakening Earnings
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Rebounding from the Bottom in 1Q24, It Will Witness Normal Orders Since 2Q24.


Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire

By Eric Wen

  • We notice a pickup in consumer acceptance of instrashopping, as result of COVID-cultivated behavior. We notice similar business model worked outside of China (Coupang) for densely populated urban upper-middle-class customers;
  • Meituan’s launch of membership is a wise step towards strengthening user stickiness and emphasizing transaction soundness over impulsive buying. Meituan’s portfolio in food, dining, hotel & travel offer unparalleled value;
  • We see Meituan’s success in Hong Kong honed a replicable business model targeting single and low priced segment. Consolation on a global scale now seems a possibility.

Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)‘s FQ4 announcement portrays a resilient comeback to growth, suggesting the past four years’ challenges barely impacted its dominance in Chinese e-commerce.
  • However, a closer look beyond the surface of Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s FQ4 results announcement reveals that little has actually changed in recent months.
  • Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC’s growth largely covers for other Alibaba units’ failings, while AliExpress’s expansion cuts into margins.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – May 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Alibaba (BABA US): Taobao/Tmall Is Back

By Eric Chen

  • Alibaba reported in-line revenue but disappointed adjusted net income for 4QFY24.
  • Yet a closer look shows strong core Taobao/Tmall performance was offset by higher-than-expected losses incurred by peripheral businesses.
  • We remain convinced BABA is on track to turn around and an earnings upgrade cycle is one or two quarters away. We are buyer at this price.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (16-May-2024): Impact of US tariff hike on China’s clean energy.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • US tariff hike on Chinese electric vehicles, solar cells, and semiconductors could raise costs for clean energy industry in China, affecting competitiveness and growth.
  • AT&S to sell medtech PCB factory in South Korea, indicating potential changes in the global supply chain.
  • AI rush leading to staffing shortages at companies like Amazon and Google, while India sees surge in AI spending by 2027.

Cigniti Technologies – A Special Situation Bet

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The Cigniti-Coforge acquisition presents a unique investment opportunity in the IT services sector, with potential for significant returns.
  • Coforge plans to acquire a 54% stake in Cigniti Technologies, expanding its presence in digital assurance and AI services.
  • The deal is expected to be completed by Q2 of FY25, with an open offer price potentially higher than the current market value of Cigniti shares.

What’s Wrong with UPL?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)‘s Q4 FY23 results show a significant improvement in margins to 13% after a drastic fall to 1% in December 2023, despite a 15% YoY revenue decline.
  • Revenue drops were driven by lower prices and high-cost inventory liquidation, yet margin recovery signals operational improvements and potential future stability.
  • Planning to reduce the debt by raising capital via right issue as well as IPO of Advanta.

Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The slowdown in Chinese retail sales of apparel seems to have been factored into Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) 1Q 2024 revenue growth expectations whilst bottom-line is supported by margin expansion.
  • With net cash at ~40% of its market cap, the share price should be supported by the ongoing share repurchase program and its inaugural annual dividend policy.
  • Its 6.6x NTM PE ratio (~4x ex-cash) seems extremely attractive for a highly cash-generative business set to (conservatively) grow earnings at high-single-digits whilst buying back shares and paying dividends.

Recruit: As We Said… Weakening Earnings

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY03/2024 results today. Earnings beat own guidance as well as consensus estimates.
  • Weakening labour markets have negatively impacted all business segments and new pricing model for Indeed has not really been successful.
  • Recruit expects a recovery in 2HFY03/2025, but at the rate at which job openings are going down, we remain cautious.

Silergy (6415.TT): Rebounding from the Bottom in 1Q24, It Will Witness Normal Orders Since 2Q24.

By Patrick Liao

  • Inventory levels were at 90 days by the end of 1Q24, returning to a normal level.   
  • It is expected to see consecutive QoQ growth throughout 2024, with normal orders observed since 2Q24. 
  • Although Chinese mature technology is advancing, current analog capacity still falls short of local demand in China.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24, Main Business Began to Grow
  • Tencent (700 HK): 1Q24, Highest Margin in Seven Years
  • Intel’s Foundry Chief Runs For The Hills
  • Tencent: Online Advertising and High-Margin Businesses Support Earnings
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Cheerwin – Number One Provider of Mosquito Repellents in China
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Rich in Initiatives
  • Bajaj Finance (BAF): Strengthening Franchise to Sustain Growth Longevity
  • Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Ups Stake As Shares Waver
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-May-2024): Taiwan announces IC Taiwan Grand Challenge Competition.
  • GHCL Textile Q4 FY24 Update


Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24, Main Business Began to Grow

By Ming Lu

  • Customer management as the largest business began to increase compared to the past two stagnant quarters.
  • We believe margin will continue to decline as the company turned its focus to growth.
  • We conclude an upside of 41% for March 2025 based on peer companies’ P/S ratios.

Tencent (700 HK): 1Q24, Highest Margin in Seven Years

By Ming Lu

  • The operating margin in 1Q24 reached the highest since 2Q16, as the gross margins of all businesses improved.
  • The growth rate of online advertising is high than our estimate, but the growth rate of FinTech is lower than our estimate.
  • We believe there is still an upside of 9% and the price target will be HK$415 for the end of 2024.

Intel’s Foundry Chief Runs For The Hills

By William Keating

  • In a surprise move, Intel announced that its foundry chief Stuart Pann is to retire from the company effective end of May after just over one year in the role
  • He will be replaced by former IBM, Globalfoundries and Marvell executive Kevin O’Buckley, effective immediately
  • Mr. O’Buckley now has the dubious distinction of being the third leader of IFS in as many years. 

Tencent: Online Advertising and High-Margin Businesses Support Earnings

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 1Q2024 results today. Both revenues and OP grew 6.3% and 30.0% YoY respectively and beat consensus estimates.
  • Though domestic games revenues declined YoY, there were signs of recovery in Tencent’s gaming business. Online advertising saw strong growth despite 1Q being a seasonally weak quarter for Tencent.
  • Tencent’s investments in high-margin products have helped boost the company’s margins across all business segments.

Asian Dividend Gems: Cheerwin – Number One Provider of Mosquito Repellents in China

By Douglas Kim

  • Cheerwin is a strong turnaround story with significant earnings growth in 2023 with solid dividend yield. It is the number one player in the inspect repellent sector in China. 
  • Cheerwin’s current price is 79% lower than the IPO  price. However, Cheerwin’s shares are up 35% YTD, sharply outperforming Hang Seng index which is up 13.6% YTD.
  • We found Cheerwin (6601 HK) using Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener system. We used the following screening methodology: Market cap – More than $300 million Dividends = 5 only.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Rich in Initiatives

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab‘s focus last year was offering more affordable products, which helped to increase its addressable market. FY2024 will see the rollout of a broader range of initiatives across economic segments. 
  • This year Grab is rolling out more premium offerings and new initiatives, including advance bookings, family accounts, increased reviews, and new merchant features to grow revenue streams from advertising.
  • The upcoming results are likely to reflect seasonal factors but should also reveal something about Grab’s new initiatives and the changing competitive environment, with GoTo investing more aggressively. 

Bajaj Finance (BAF): Strengthening Franchise to Sustain Growth Longevity

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • BAF reported a decent Q4FY24 led by strong AUM growth and robust customer acquisition. Adjusted for the impact of the regulatory ban, Q4FY24 results were in line with the expectation.  
  • The biggest negative surprise in Q4FY24 was the 21bp NIM compression. NIM compressed led by AUM composition shifting incrementally to secured assets. 
  • BAF is optimistic on growth across segments, except Rural B2C where risk metrics are somewhat elevated; however this should normalize, given Rural B2B is doing fine.

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Ups Stake As Shares Waver

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in June 2022, US/Europe toll-road play Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLIX) rejected IFM Global Infrastructure’s request for limited company information, before deciding whether to submit a non-binding indicative proposal. 
  • Undeterred, IFM, which held 15% of shares out at the time, bumped its stake to 19% two months later; and has continued to capitalise on Australia’s creep provisions ever since. 
  • This morning, IFM is understood to have lifted its stake to ~26.5%, in an apparent attempt to gain additional board representation. Another tilt cannot be ruled out. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-May-2024): Taiwan announces IC Taiwan Grand Challenge Competition.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Taiwan launches IC Taiwan Grand Challenge to attract innovative teams and talent, offering opportunities to showcase skills and win prizes.
  • Navigating AI investments during upgrades: on-premise or cloud computing? Make informed choices for hardware and software advancements.
  • Taiwan’s LEO satellite program readiness questioned; virtual power plants used in Taiwan and Japan to mitigate earthquake risks; TPCA partners with Taiwanese industry association to boost talent and supply chains for Thai electronics manufacturing growth; Intel appoints new head of foundry services.

GHCL Textile Q4 FY24 Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • GHCL Textiles (GHCLTEXT IN)  Aiming 25-30% revenue growth along with 15-20% average margins significantly increase the profitability of the company.
  • Entering into value-added products like Functional fabrics and setting up their own manufacturing plant for fabric.
  • Management Guidance on yarn prices, capex and debt profile of the company.

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