Event-Driven Archives | Page 17 of 187 | Smartkarma

A little over a year ago, I wrote about Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)‘s overly complicated scrip Offer in Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Absorption Via Speculative Scrip. Avoid.
In summary, Yichang HEC shareholders were being offered 0.263614 “Offeror H shares”. These consideration shares are unlisted. The Offeror being Yichang HEC’s controlling shareholder (51.41%).
The Composite Doc and the Offeror’s Listing by Way Of Introduction Doc are out. The independent H-shareholder vote is the 21st July. Shareholders should vote this down.

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

Sabadell’s TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.
BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.
Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (May and June 2025)

In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in May and June 2025.
There were 24 companies in the Korean stock market that announced share buybacks in the past two months. On average, the share buyback announcements represented 1.7% of outstanding shares.
There were four companies with more than 100 billion won in market cap that announced share buybacks in May and June with at least 3% of outstanding shares.

Spectris Update: KKR’s Recommended Counter-Offer Displaces Advent

KKR’s £40/share offer is now board-recommended, displacing Advent’s prior bid; Spectris shares trade near offer price with minimal spread.
With full board support and limited regulatory risk, the market implies >99% deal certainty.
Advent must act swiftly or concede defeat; further bidding appears unlikely but not impossible.

Event Driven: Torrent Acquires JB Chemicals ~ The Second-Largest Pharma Deal in Indian History

By Nimish Maheshwari

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) is acquiring a controlling stake in J.B. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (JBCP IN) for INR 25,689 crore, marking the second-largest pharma deal in India’s history.
The acquisition strengthens Torrent’s market share in India, expands its therapeutic presence, and opens entry into the growing CDMO sector, diversifying its business model.
The merger is expected to drive revenue growth, improve margins, and provide operational synergies, with long-term gains in both domestic and international markets.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility
Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates
Domain (DHG AU): 4th August Vote On CoStar’s Offer. Clean Deal
Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios
Merger Between HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment
Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility

On 12 May 2025, Bain Capital announced a deal to buy Nissin Corp (9066 JP). The tender was VERY light in price (Bain’s borrowing more than adjusted EV at TOB Price)
And it was very long at 41 days. As of Day 1, they announced a long list of “irrevocables” – 16 holders with 5.75% – who had agreed to tender.
Since then Bain have made 7 separate amendment filings detailing additional irrevocables and one possible additional tender agreement to get to 11.30%. Now it’s extended.

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.

HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook

This event offers two arb plays—merger swap and appraisal rights—but there’s barely any juice left as pricing locked the market into an unusually tight range.
Yeah, it’s tight. Unless cancel risk flares up, the spread likely stays muted—major holder’s balanced stakes make vote pushback or ratio disputes pretty unlikely.
One angle to watch: passive flows. HCE likely joins KOSPI 200 post-merger, triggering index buys around Infracore’s halt on Dec 30—potentially a solid year-end positioning play.

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
1,389 new CGRs filed since 1 June 25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Next meeting is in a week. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow.

Domain (DHG AU): 4th August Vote On CoStar’s Offer. Clean Deal

Back on the 9th May 2025, Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) entered into a Scheme, at A$4.43/share (in cash), with CoStar, the same terms as the 27th March NBIO.
Apart from the standard Scheme vote, this needs FIRB to sign off. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) (60.05% shareholder) is supportive.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 4th August, and expected implementation on or before the 27th August. The IE (FGrant Samuel) says “fair & reasonable“.

Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Midea Group (300 HK) has received shareholder approval to spin off its technology-driven supply chain arm,Annto Logistics,for a separate listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Annto has demonstrated consistent profitability, with cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reaching RMB 883.42 million for 2022-2024.
Size to not exceed 20% of the enlarged share capital. The objective is to expand Annto’s financing avenues, accelerate growth, & bolster operational independence within the Midea ecosystem.

Merger Between HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment

After the market close on 1 July, HD Hyundai Infracore announced that it will be merging with HD Hyundai Construction Equipment.
The merger ratio is 0.1621707 common shares of HD Hyundai Construction Equipment for each common share of HD Hyundai Infracore.
We have Negative ratings on both HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment.

Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity

Direct Line–Aviva deal has cleared CMA and court hurdles; only procedural steps remain.
Implied value is 312.19p vs. 306.6p close — a 1.82% spread with 7-day horizon.
I recommend long arbitrage exposure below 307p. This is a textbook risk arb trade: liquid, near-fully de-risked, and short-dated.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May);
Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

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Jul 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
TalkMed (TKMED SP)’s Super Clean Scheme
Fortive or Its Spin-Off Ralliant – Which One Is a Better Buy?
Buy International Gaming Technologies
High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured
(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic
Weekly Update (AMRZ, UNTC, MEDXF, IGT)
SPACs, Strategic Reviews, and Acquisitions: Key Developments in Special Situation Investments
Yorkville Acquisition SPAC: Trump-Linked Ventures and Telecom-Digital Asset Focus

Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal

Nippon Concept (9386 JP) has recommended a J-STAR-sponsored MBO at JPY3,060, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
An attractive offer and irrevocables pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from July 1 to August 13, with payment due on August 20.

TalkMed (TKMED SP)’s Super Clean Scheme

On the 23 Dec 2024, tertiary health care provider TalkMed (TKMED SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Tamarind Health at S$0.456/share, a 20% premium to undisturbed.
Tamarind is a Singaporean-based, pan-Asian oncology-focused group. As part of the deal, Temasek-backed 65 Equity Partners will subscribe for new shares in Tamarind.
The Composite Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 15th July, and expected payment around the 29th August. The IFA (KPMG) says “fair & reasonable“.

Fortive or Its Spin-Off Ralliant – Which One Is a Better Buy?

By Garvit Bhandari

Fortive and Ralliant began when-issued trading on June 25, 2025 under the ticker ‘FTV WI’ and ‘RAL WI’.
The regular-way trading will begin on June 30, 2025. Ralliant will trade under the ticker ‘RAL’ and Fortive (ex Ralliant) will continue to trade under the ticker ‘FTV’.
As part of the transaction, FTV (ex RAL) will receive $1.15 billion in dividend from Ralliant Corp. RAL will assume debt to pay the cash dividend to FTV.

Buy International Gaming Technologies

By Richard Howe

International Gaming Technologies (IGT) is in the process of selling its Global Gaming and PlayDigital segments.
The merger arbitrage market implies a high likelihood that this deal closes soon ($14.23 share price for EVRI vs. acquisition price of $14.25).
Guidance is the deal could close as soon as July 1, 2025.

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.
At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.
Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic

For June 2025, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~39%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

Weekly Update (AMRZ, UNTC, MEDXF, IGT)

By Richard Howe

This week, I recommended a new idea: Buy International Gaming Technologies.
If you are interested in buying IGT, I would recommend doing so on Monday.
IGT is in the process of selling its Gaming division for $4BN, and the transaction could close as soon as Tuesday, July 1.

SPACs, Strategic Reviews, and Acquisitions: Key Developments in Special Situation Investments

Cantor Equity Partners III (CAEP) added to tracking portfolio, trading at $10.50/share, 5% premium to trust value.
Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) stock rose 150% on positive phase 2b trial data for atopic dermatitis treatment Rezpeg.
SmartPay Holdings (SMP:AX) definitive agreement to be acquired by Shift4 Payments at NZ$1.20/share, 7% spread remains.

Yorkville Acquisition SPAC: Trump-Linked Ventures and Telecom-Digital Asset Focus

YORKU units trade at $11, with each unit including common stock backed by a $10/share trust value and one-third of a warrant.
Yorkville Advisors, tied to Trump-related ventures, sponsors YORKU, with a 25% stake and a $150m IPO size.
YORKU targets telecom, media, and digital assets sectors, with management linked to Trump Media and potential speculative opportunities.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty
BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options
VIOL (335890 KS): VIG Partners’ Tender Offer And DMS’ Strategic Exit

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction

China Mobile (941 HK) has secured all PRC regulatory approvals for its HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is approval from the HK Communications Authority.
I Squared, while technically still in the race, is rapidly running out of time. It needs to announce an offer before China Mobile opens its offer for acceptance.
Despite the HKBN CEO’s comments that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, China Mobile has no pressing need to bump if a competing offer fails to materialise.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty

The precondition for Sunshine Lake Pharma’s privatisation of HEC Pharma was satisfied on 27 June. The offer is 0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC share and HK$1.50 special dividend.
The vote on 21 July is low-risk as no independent H Shareholder comes close to the blocking stake, which is 4.61% of the outstanding shares (6.20% of H Shares).
The appraised value is HK$19.36, but this is a finger-in-the-sky valuation as it marginally increased from HK$19.30 despite the offeror’s weak 2024 results and limited progress on commercialising its pipeline.

BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.
September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.

VIOL (335890 KS): VIG Partners’ Tender Offer And DMS’ Strategic Exit

VIG Partners, a PE-outfit, is seeking to delist VIOL (335890 KS), an aesthetic medical devices manufacturer, whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.
VIG first acquired 7% of DMS (068790 KS)’s 34.76% controlling stake in VIOL, following which, DMS contributed the remaining 27.76% in-kind to VIG’s SPV at a valuation of ₩12,500/share.
VIG’s SPV’s tender offer launched on 18th June, also at ₩12,500/share, and runs until the 7th July 7. The Offer is conditional on a minimum acceptance threshold of 20.76%.

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Jun 29

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm

Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post

Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is a pretty straightforward short term trade. Basically the second largest shareholder, Prakitchaiwattana, got margin called, and shares fell limit down. Twice.
South Korean private equity firm VIG Partners tables an Offer for beauty device company VIOL (335890 KS), whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.
Melco (200 HK)‘s 11.9% gain on the 26th June – on serious volume – was predicated on a short squeeze, just eight days after the fully-paid rights shares commenced trading.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm

I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Humm Group (HUM AU) and VIOL (335890 KS).
Key updates/news took place onSantos (STO AU), PointsBet (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), SmartPay (SMP AU), Dickson Concepts (113 HK), and SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP).

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Jun 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call
Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection
Taekwang Industrial: Issuing EB Worth 319 Billion Won Based on Its Treasury Shares [Poor Governance]

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call

Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana is the second largest shareholder in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), behind Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB).
He also holds stakes in XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB).
All four companies went limit down on the 23rd June. And again the next day. Both KTC and TPS say nothing has fundamentally changed. The cause? Margin calls.

Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection

Minority shareholders of Hanwha Corp preferred shares are demanding better protection (such as converting preferred shares into common shares) and are criticizing the potential delisting of its shares.
We provide four major scenarios that could occur for Hanwha Corp preferred shares (000885 KS) in the coming weeks.
The fact that Hanwha Group companies are on such positive momentum, it would be in the best interest for Hanwha to improve shareholder value of the Hanwha Corp’s preferred shares.

Taekwang Industrial: Issuing EB Worth 319 Billion Won Based on Its Treasury Shares [Poor Governance]

After the market close on 27 June, Taekwang Industrial (003240 KS) announced that it is issuing an exchangeable bond (EB) worth 319 billion won based on its treasury shares.
Taekwang Industrial announced it will issue EBs with the 271,769 treasury stocks representing 24.41% of the issued shares. This is poor corporate governance and not shareholder friendly.
Going forward, we believe its shares are likely to underperform the market in the next 1-2 years.

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Jun 27

Daily Brief Event-Driven: FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover
New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Firms A$0.057/Share Off-Market Offer
New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Raises to A$0.062, Next Move Kinterra
RLE REIT Liquidation Strategy: Potential Upside, Risks, and Market Conditions Impacting Asset Sales
Ain’s Purchase of Kraft a Sign of More Drugstore M&A to Come
Nanoco: Potential Upside Amidst IP Valuation and Cash Distribution Plans
Strategic Review Highlights GSF’s Potential Upside Amidst Discounted Valuation
Tritax Overtakes Blackstone in Warehouse REIT Showdown – Optionality Remains

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover

There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply?
And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE’s similar critical assets?

New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Firms A$0.057/Share Off-Market Offer

Kinterra has now firmed an off-market Offer for at A$0.057/share for copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
Kinterra’s Bidder’s Statement will be dispatched no later than the 10th July, at which time the Offer will open. A Target statement is expected 15 days later.
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has matchng rights. Expect those rights to be used.

New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Raises to A$0.062, Next Move Kinterra

After market close, CAML acquired a total of 253.0 million New World Resources (NWC AU) shares via off-market trades, representing 7.08% of the outstanding shares, at A$0.062 per share.
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN)’s scheme and takeover offer has increased to A$0.062, a 12.7% premium to CAML’s previous A$0.055 offer and an 8.8% premium to Kinterra’s A$0.057 offer.
CAML and Kinterra’s stake prevents the other from exercising compulsory acquisition rights. Despite CAML’s offer representing a 121.4% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war.

RLE REIT Liquidation Strategy: Potential Upside, Risks, and Market Conditions Impacting Asset Sales

RLE, a London-listed REIT, is undergoing a three-year liquidation with £122m in commercial property and £7m cash.
The portfolio’s occupancy is 82%, with a 6.92% net initial yield and a 9% reversionary yield.
Risks include potential delays in asset sales, cash burn, and dependence on UK real estate market recovery.

Ain’s Purchase of Kraft a Sign of More Drugstore M&A to Come

By Michael Causton

The merger of Tsuruha and Welcia got the green light in May and will further galvanise the sector to consolidate, especially in prescriptions due to the shortage of qualified staff.
Which is why Ain has confirmed the acquisition of Kanto-based prescription drug chains operated by Kraft.
The move will help maintain Ain’s dominance in the dispensing pharmacy sector and encourage further M&A.

Nanoco: Potential Upside Amidst IP Valuation and Cash Distribution Plans

Nanoco’s market cap is £19m, with £15.2m cash as of March 2025, and potential 50% upside from sale.
The company is pursuing a sale process, reaching out to over 200 targets, with non-binding bids expected.
Nanoco’s IP portfolio includes over 350 patents, valued at £46m on the balance sheet, with potential litigation proceeds.

Strategic Review Highlights GSF’s Potential Upside Amidst Discounted Valuation

GSF trades at a 36% discount with an 11% yield, despite being geographically diversified and least levered among peers.
Strategic review includes management termination fee removal, capital allocation advisement, and $80m ITC proceeds for dividends and debt repayment.
GSF’s EBITDA is expected to exceed £40m in 2025, with a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 7x.

Tritax Overtakes Blackstone in Warehouse REIT Showdown – Optionality Remains

Tritax’s 114.2p bid trumps Blackstone’s final 110.6p, offering shareholders equity upside, dividends, and strategic synergies.
Blackstone may re-enter despite finality; deadline for a counter is early September.
Shares trade above implied value, signalling expectations of a re-bid or improved offer, but spreads are tight and arb returns are fully compressed.

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Jun 26

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise
Block Deal Sale of 82 Billion Won of SK Eternix by Hahn & Co
New World Resources (NWC AU): A Brewing Bidding War
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Lockup Expiry Ahead. After 2000% Rally, Is There Still Shine Left?
Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s NBIO
Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s Low-Ball Non-Binding Offer
An Updated Progress on the Tender Offer and Delisting of Viol By VIG Partners
Key Trading Angles from Nextrade’s First Quarterly Reshuffle: Full List with Tickers (Excel)
BBVA/Sabadell: Trading Above Terms After Government Imposes Integration Freeze
Block Deal Sale of 1.9% of Shinhan Financial by Affinity Equity Partners (BLSH: Buy Low Sell High)

Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise

Xero Ltd (XRO AU) has entered into a binding agreement to acquire Melio Limited for an upfront cash consideration of US$2.5bn in cash and Xero Ltd (XRO AU) stock.
The cash consideration is being funded mainly through a fully underwritten A$1.85bn (US$1.2bn) institutional placement. There is also a non-underwritten Share Purchase Plan to raise around A$200m.
Given the large size of the institutional placement, there will be an increase in index shares and the passive buying that follows should mop up over 20% of the placement.

Block Deal Sale of 82 Billion Won of SK Eternix by Hahn & Co

On 25 June, Hahn & Co completed a block deal sale of about 9% stake in SK Eternix at 25,634 won (approximately 11% discount to the previous day’s closing price).
Despite the expected sharp growth in the company’s sales and profits next year, its valuations have reached very high levels.
Combined with the recent block deal sales at significant market discount, we believe this is likely to put a break on its share price in the next 3-6 months.

New World Resources (NWC AU): A Brewing Bidding War

New World Resources (NWC AU) is subject to a bidding war between Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) and Kinterra. CAML’s binding offer is A$0.055 while Kinterra’s non-binding offer is A$0.057.
At current terms, a binding Kinterra offer would be superior as the price increase more than offsets the reverse break fees and does not require regulatory approvals.
Despite Kinterra’s offer representing a 103.6% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Lockup Expiry Ahead. After 2000% Rally, Is There Still Shine Left?

By Devi Subhakesan

Laopu Gold (6181 HK)’s 365-day lockup on shares held by pre-IPO investors expires tomorrow (June 27), more than doubling its current free float.
Near-Term pressure on the stock is likely, given the sharp increase in tradable shares, mixed gold price outlook, and limited retail investor access after a steep rally.
A potential stock split could broaden investor participation, improve liquidity and serve as a catalyst for next leg of stock upside.

Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s NBIO

In December 2021, buy-now, pay-later outfit humm (HUM AU) announced approaches from third parties to acquire all/part of the company. This was discussed in BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals.
Six months later, a proposed sale of Humm Consumer Finance business to Latitude (LFS AU) was terminated, before the scheduled vote, due to opposition from founder/chairman Andrew Abercrombie.
Now the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, has tabled a A$0.58/share non-binding Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Abercrombie hold 26.6%.

Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s Low-Ball Non-Binding Offer

Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from The Abercrombie Group at A$0.58, a 34.9% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.43 (23 June).
The Board has granted a four-week due diligence period. The offer is unattractive on several metrics.
Unsurprisingly, retail is strongly opposed to the low-ball offer. The Board should negotiate for better terms.

An Updated Progress on the Tender Offer and Delisting of Viol By VIG Partners

This insight provides an updated progress on the tender offer and delisting of VIOL (335890 KS). The tender offer period lasts from 18 June to 7 July 2025.
Through this tender offer, VIG Partners plans to acquire full management rights of Viol and also take it private.
If the number of shares offered for the tender offer reaches the maximum target, SPC will secure a 98.84% stake in Viol.

Key Trading Angles from Nextrade’s First Quarterly Reshuffle: Full List with Tickers (Excel)

NextTrade’s Q3 reshuffle: 105 adds, 112 cuts, net -7. Total tradable names drop to 791. Turnover was more aggressive than expected.
Key NXT additions could see liquidity surge and short-term vol spike, especially with NXT still grabbing ~30% of turnover and no hard cap enforcement yet in place.
LG CNS, GS P&L, and SAMG Ent. are catching strong local trader interest, with setups building fast around these newly added NXT plays.

BBVA/Sabadell: Trading Above Terms After Government Imposes Integration Freeze

Sabadell trades above the implied offer value, signaling investor expectations of a revised bid or deal failure.
Government-Imposed integration freeze severely impairs BBVA’s ability to realize synergies.
Political dependence on Catalan nationalist parties complicates execution despite formal regulatory clearance.

Block Deal Sale of 1.9% of Shinhan Financial by Affinity Equity Partners (BLSH: Buy Low Sell High)

After the market close on 25 June, Affinity Equity Partners sold all of its 1.94% stake (9.742 million shares) in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS) in a block deal sale.
It was reported that the sale was made at around 59,475 won to 59,780 won, a 2.0-2.5% discount from the previous day’s closing price of 61,000 won.
This block deal sale of 1.9% stake in Shinhan could be viewed negatively as Affinity has decided to sell the shares at current levels rather than waiting for further upside.

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Jun 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fresh Low-PBR Policy Color Hitting the Local Tape Today and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Fresh Low-PBR Policy Color Hitting the Local Tape Today
Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year
SingPost (SPOST SP): More Non-Core Divestments – Slowly But Surely
Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion
Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Scheme Vote on 18 July for a Below Net Cash Offer
Dickson Concept (113 HK): 18th July Vote On Poon’s Low-Balled Offer

Fresh Low-PBR Policy Color Hitting the Local Tape Today

The ruling party’s KOSPI 5,000 task force is now eyeing low PBR names with talk of direct penalties — a sharper shift from the prior admin’s soft-touch value-up approach.
Low PBR penalties may bypass the Assembly, fast-tracked via KRX or enforcement rule tweaks — rollout could follow swiftly post commercial code passage, possibly within 2–3 months.
Market’s zeroing in on low PBR, high ROE large caps — with 0.8x flagged as the penalty line, 56 KRW 1T+ names screen as potential re-rating plays.

Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year

Gemlife (GLF AU) is looking to raise A$750m in a primary offering, valuing the company at A$1.58bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 3 July.
The Puljich family and Thakral Corp (THK SP) are escrowed on their shares till mid 2026 at the earliest.
Gemlife (GLF AU) could be added to global indexes in November and December this year, but S&P/ASX 300 Index inclusion could take place only in March 2026.

SingPost (SPOST SP): More Non-Core Divestments – Slowly But Surely

After selling its Aussie-based logistics ops earlier this year, Singapore Post (SPOST SP) continues to divest non-core assets and businesses.
The latest is the sale and leaseback of 10 Housing & Development Board shophouses, which could net S$50mn.
SPOST has declared a S$0.09/share special dividend from the Aussie sale. Shareholders will vote on the dividend at the AGM on the 23rd July.

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.
Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Scheme Vote on 18 July for a Below Net Cash Offer

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)’s IFA opines that the controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) at HK$7.20 to be fair and reasonable. The vote is on 18 July.
A low AGM minority participation rate and quiet retail forums are helpful. However, the offer is below the net cash, and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis.
Dickson shares traits similar to those of the Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks, which showed that low-ball offers can be blocked. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.

Dickson Concept (113 HK): 18th July Vote On Poon’s Low-Balled Offer

Back on the 29th April, Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)‘s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding (now) 65.77%, tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held.
The family offered HK$7.20/share (best & final). That compared to DC’s net cash (as at 31st Mar 2025) of HK$6.92/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$1.92/share.
The Scheme Document’s now out, with a Court Meeting on the 18th July, and expected payment around the 12th August. The IFA (Platinum) says “fair & reasonable”. It is not.

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Jun 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Holcim Spin-off (Amrize) Deep Dive and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Holcim Spin-off (Amrize) Deep Dive
A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 June 2025): Skew Move Continues as SB Buys But AH Premia Rise
Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Shift4’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.20
SPAC Opportunities, SAGE Takeover, NTGY Tender Offer and MYX Acquisition Developments
Latest Borrow (Net Short Interest) To Float Ratios — Screening a Starter Basket for Short Flow
New World Resources (NWC AU): On Kinterra’s A$0.057/Share NBIO
Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles
Takeover Doubts Grow: Break-Up Value Still Supports Re-Rating Case

Holcim Spin-off (Amrize) Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

Holcim will spin off its construction materials and solutions business into a standalone company, to be named Amrize on Friday, June 20th.
The first day of trading will be Monday, June 23, 2025.
Holcim plans to spin off Amrize, distributing one Amrize share for each Holcim share held.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 June 2025): Skew Move Continues as SB Buys But AH Premia Rise

AH premia bounce back last week but the “skew” of wide premia converging and narrow premia moving wider continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
The previous week smelled like an RMB counter trade was being set up, “confirmed” by a Caixin article the weekend. The HKEX “confirmation” this past week, well, maybe wasn’t one.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Shift4’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.20

Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Shift4 Payments (FOUR US) at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12), a 19.4% premium to the last close price of NZ$1.005.
The scheme is subject to shareholder and OIO approval. In the absence of a competing proposal, the offer is the best and final offer.
Microequities has provided an irrevocable, and the other substantial shareholders should be supportive as the offer is attractive.

SPAC Opportunities, SAGE Takeover, NTGY Tender Offer and MYX Acquisition Developments

Four SPACs, CCCM, PCAPU, MBAV, and TACO, are highlighted for their potential asymmetric trade opportunities in the crypto sector.
Sage Therapeutics announced a sale to Supernus Pharmaceuticals, with shareholders receiving $8.50/share in cash and a CVR.
Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette progresses with FIRB approval discussions, despite no strict obligation for Cosette to pursue it.

Latest Borrow (Net Short Interest) To Float Ratios — Screening a Starter Basket for Short Flow

Dropped an Excel below with all names showing borrow as of today’s close — includes short interest and borrow-to-float using latest float data.
Tables below flag names with borrow-to-float >4% (>3% for small caps) and plenty of unused borrow — solid candidates for potential short flow.
Not auto-shorts — still need basic checks. But with borrow rising, this set looks like a solid starter basket to watch for short flow.

New World Resources (NWC AU): On Kinterra’s A$0.057/Share NBIO

It was just a matter of time when Toronto-based PE outfit Kinterra Capital, with a (then) 11.99% stake, made a move on copper miner New World Resources (NWC AU).
After declaring it had increased its holding to 19.126%, Kinterra followed with an off-market NBIO at A$0.057/share. Presumably the Offer requires due diligence but the announcement is silent on this.
Separately, Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) announced after market last Friday, it had bought 178.8mn shares (5% of shares out) at A$0.055/share; and subsequently bumped terms to A$0.055/share.

Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.
The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).
Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.

Takeover Doubts Grow: Break-Up Value Still Supports Re-Rating Case