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Haier Electronics Group Co

Last Week in Event SPACE: Haier, NTT Doco, Tesla, Beijing Jingneng, China Biologics, HK IPO Lock-Ups

295 Views22 Nov 2020 07:29
SUMMARY

Last Week in Event SPACE ...

(This insight covers specific insights & comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)

M&A - ASIA

Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) (Mkt Cap: $13.9bn; Liquidity: $20mn)

The Scheme Document has now been despatched - all 1,052 pages of it. The Court Meeting/SGM will be held on the 9 December, with the expected listing of the Haier Smart Home (600690 CH) (HSH) H shares on the 22 December. The IFA (Somerley) considers the Offer to be fair & reasonable. The Valuation Advisor (Platinum Advisors) has, not surprisingly, bumped the mid-point of the Offer Consideration to $38.03, up from $31.51 in late July. HSH is up 51%/73% since the deal transaction was floated in December, and confirmed in July. HEG is up 62%/36% during the same time frame. Still, this mid-point assessment is just a valuer's opinion. There is no guarantee this is where the Hs will trade.

  • What is a "fair" discount for the Hs? The mid-point price from the independent valuer of $38.03 implies a 32% discount - H to the As. The average A/H premium for the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index was ~39%, or a ~28% discount.
  • Listed-peer Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) was trading at a 38% discount to Hisense Kelon Electrical-A (000921 CH). A basket of H shares currently has an average discount of 43% to their A-share counterparts. It was 41% when this deal was announced back in July, and 35% back in December when the transaction was first floated. A chart of the discount for H/As over the last 12 months is below:

  • The look-through ~34% discount (Hs vs As) - at the time of my insight - was tight relative to liquid A/Hs. This looked full and I would not get involved, and would only re-enter closer to 40%. Short interest has also recently spiked. Separately, HSH's implied stub remains highly elevated.

(link to my insight: Haier Electric (1169 HK): The "H-Share" Guessing Game)

NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) (Mkt Cap: $120bn; Liquidity: $321mn)

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) and NTT Docomo announced the results of NTT's Tender Offer for NTT Docomo, noting that NTT had purchased 815mm shares and as a result, their position would be 91.46% upon settlement. The Tender Result means that either a very large short position was created or significant portions of the TOPIX non-ETF position and the MSCI and FTSE position tendered. This result triggers a series of events.
  • MSCI and FTSE will likely announce the constituent deletion today for deletion Thursday 19 November at the close. There would be roughly $5bn of market buying to be done at the close. Nikkei will likely announce today or 18 Nov after the close that they will replace NTT Docomo in the Nikkei 225 at the end of November. Travis Lundy expects Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), Sharp Corp (6753 JP), Hoya Corp (7741 JP), Aisin Seiki (7259 JP), Shimadzu Corp (7701 JP), or possibly Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) as the best candidates to replace NTT Docomo.
  • NTT will ask NTT Docomo's board to approve a Demand for Cash Out scheme where NTT will buy all remaining shares by fiat, on an expedited basis. Travis expects that request on the 24th of November. That event - whether on the 24th or a later day - would trigger a designation by the TSE that NTT Docomo was a Security to be Delisted. Such a designation would trigger a deletion by TOPIX and the JPX Nikkei 400 3 business days later (perhaps the 27th of November). There would be roughly $9bn of market buying to be done at the close.
  • Travis expects the interesting trades are to take the other side of the reverse funding trades on the MSCI and FTSE deletion and the TOPIX deletion i.e. short low-liquidity names above market on the close of trading. One could also probably ride the buying wave a little bit. This is part of the Great Re-Allocation. IF people push up either Sharp or Renesas on an announcement of Nikkei 225 inclusion, one can short that briefly, but any pop will be small and short-lived.
  • UPDATE: Sharp was added to the Nikkei - see insights under "INDEX REBALS" below.

link to Travis' insights:
Surprising NTT Docomo Tender Result Accelerates Squeezeout, Great Re-Allocation, Nikkei 225 Change
The Great Docomo/TOPIX Reallocation Trade

Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) (Mkt Cap: $2.7bn; Liquidity: $2mn)

A voluntary conditional offer is now announced at HK$2.70/share from Beijing Energy Holdings (BEH), Jingneng's controlling shareholder, a 70.89% premium to the undisturbed price. The Offer price is final. No dividends are expected during the Offer period. Jingneng is incorporated in the PRC, and as such, there are no rights to compulsorily acquire shares or to require an Offeror do so. The only mechanism available to privatise is via a Merger by Absorption, incorporating a Scheme-like vote (≥ 75% for, ≤10% against). Additionally, as this is a "voluntary conditional offer", a tendering condition of 90% is also present.

  • BEH concert parties hold 46.81% of its H shares or 1.324bn shares. Therefore independent H-shareholders total 1.505bn shares, implying a blocking stake at the H-share Class Meeting of 150.5mn shares or 5.32% of H Shares out. SAIF IV GP Capital holds 173.5mn shares as at 30 August 2018. SAIF was a cornerstone investor in Jingneng's IPO in June 2011 - see page 266 of the Offer Doc. According to the HKEx - here and here - SAIF has made no changes to its holding since May 2013. The IPO price was $1.67/share. I expect SAIF to be onboard with the Offer.
  • The average premium for past Merger by Absorption deals is 47%, implying $2.30/share. The average EV/EBITDA and P/B for recent privatization of energy plays is 10.4x and 0.7x. The Offer terms back out a 6.5x and 0.9x. Optically, the Offer Price is close to a five-year high.
  • Precedents are a mixed bag on timing - but generally, they are wrapped up in around five months. There is a tendering condition which typically adds to the timetable. There is also a question mark over whether FY20 financials will need to be incorporated into the Composite doc, should it be delayed, which may push out the timetable.

(link to my insight: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Privatisation Offer From Parent)

Korean Air Lines (003490 KS) (Mkt Cap: $3.7bn; Liquidity: $89mn)

On November 16th, KAL stated that it will acquire Asiana Airlines (020560 KS) for ₩1.8tn ($1.6bn) that would create the 10th biggest airline by fleets in the world. In this deal, the Korean Development Bank (KDB) will help Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Won-Tae & related parties retain control of Hanjin Kal and the Korean Air.

  • But Douglas Kim reckons there is an increasing probability that the combined Korean Air and Asiana Airlines may require further financial assistance from the Korean government in 2021 and beyond. This could be due to a combination of factors including lack of a significant turnaround in global travel along with higher than expected interest rates which could add to the financial burden.
  • Perhaps the worst-case scenario is that the combined Korean Air + Asiana Airlines becomes another KEPCO, which would be culminated with KDB taking over this combined entity and appointing its own CEO. In this scenario, the minority shareholders of Korean Air could be big losers, as KDB may not be willing to inject additional large sums of capital without becoming the controlling shareholder of Korean Air.

(link to Douglas' insight: Korean Air + Asiana Airlines - Is This Becoming Another KEPCO?)

Pressance Corp (3254 JP) (Mkt Cap: $1.2bn; Liquidity: $5mn)

On Friday 13th November 2020, Open House (3288 JP) and 32%-owned affiliate Pressance announced a revision of their shareholder agreement and a quasi-MBO Partial Tender Offer and Capital Injection which would, as a result of both being successful, get Open House to 65% ownership and would get Pressance an additional JPY 5bn in capital. The Tender Offer Price set is ¥1,850/share, which is 6.25x trailing 12-month earnings and 6.9x March 2022e EPS, and about 6x EV/EBITDA (which is a faulty measure because the capital-recycling nature of the businesses).

  • Travis expects this price is viewed as cheap by its major institutional holders, but the question is whether growth will continue or it has seen its best days. Open House is obviously expecting to grow faster. Given they have gone big on this twice this year, and have their experience and Pressance's experience through covid, I expect they know what they are doing.
  • This is a VERY easy buy at this price if you think cross-holders will not tender. If you have a hankering to buy more and get long at a lower-than-undisturbed price, and particularly if you are a tax-exempt investor, buying a lot to tender everything and get long seems like a very good way of investing funds for the near-term.
  • If you like it, buy more, and either tender or not tender the increased stake. A growth-oriented company Open House is buying a growth-oriented company Pressance from its minority holders. It sees a good deal at ¥1,850/share. If you'd like to sell the ¥1,850/share price, do NOT sell your shares in the market at this price. Instead, wait and tender everything.

(link to Travis' insight: Pressance (3254 JP) Partial Tender - YUMMY!)

Regis Healthcare (REG AU) (Mkt Cap: $0.4bn; Liquidity: $1mn)

Washington H. Soul Pattinson And Co. (SOL AU) ("Soul Patts") has teamed up with Bryan Dorman, co-founder of aged-care provider Regis, in making a non-binding indicative proposal of A$1.85/share by way of a Scheme. The Offer implies an equity value of A$557mn and an enterprise value of A$773mn. The Offer Price is a 25% premium to the last close and a 64% premium to the three-month VWAP. Dorman, via Ashburn P/L, holds 27.2% in Regis. Ian Roberts, Regis' other co-founder, holds 27.2%. A scrip alternative into a newly incorporated company is also proposed, in which Dorman will hold 27.2%, and Soul Patts a maximum of 72.8%, before any additional scrip taken up by Regis' shareholders.

  • Prior to the Offer, Regis shares had declined 40% YTD in response to "challenging industry conditions" (in the face of COVID, especially in Victoria) and the sentiment fallout from the aged care royal commission.
  • After booking a 50.5% decline in net profit the 1H20, Net profit declined 54.4% to A$21.5mn. The company was hit by COVID-19, incurring various outbreaks at its nursing homes. COVID-19-related costs incurred were $3.465mn. Occupancy rates across residential aged care homes declined to 90.3% from 91.7% the previous year. In the Chairman's address on the 27 October, the company believed it was not prudent to put forward any earnings guidance.
  • There is an abundance of issues faced by Regis, and the aged care reform outlook is uncertain amid diminished public confidence. Yet the indicative Offer Price appears underwhelming. I would buy around here - ~2.8% gross spread to terms at the time - as a firm Offer is likely to unfold (with an estimate 3.5 months to complete), one in which there is considerable scope for a bump.
  • UPDATE: Regis' board has now rejected Soul Patt's Offer as it materially undervalues the company.

(link to my insight: Regis Healthcare (REG AU): Potential New Home For The Old)

Chemical Company of Malaysia (CCM MK) (Mkt Cap: $0.1bn; Liquidity: $1mn)

Malaysia-based manufacturer of chemicals and rubber products Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) agreed to acquire 56.32% of smaller local peer CCM from major shareholders PNB and Amanah Saham. This triggered the requirement to launch a Mandatory Offer for the remaining shareholders at the same price: RM3.10 per CCM share in cash. The Offer is not conditional on acceptance level. BAK intends to maintain the listing status of CCM.

  • The Offer Price translates to very attractive premia of +53.0%, +69.7%, +88.4%, and +107.43% to 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year VWAPs. The Offer values CCM at an EV/Revenue(LTM) and EV/EBITDA(LTM) multiples of 1.6x and 12.7x, respectively, both well above the acquirer's multiples of 1.0x and 7.2x.
  • CCM's shares were trading at RM2.99 which translates to a gross spread of 3.68%. Assuming the Deal would complete in ~4 months as planned, the annualized spread would be ~11.0%. This is a reasonably attractive spread given the low risk of deal break.

(link to Janaghan Jeyakumar's insight: Batu Kawan (BAK MK)'s Mandatory Offer for CCM: Low Risk Risk Arb)

Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) (Mkt Cap: $0.1bn; Liquidity: <$1mn)

A week ago, it was announced that Chairman Sagawa had proposed a Management Buyout at ¥7800/share and the Board had decided to accept and support the buyout. What is unusual is that the Tender Offer Price values the entire company at ¥6.115bn while the company has a portfolio of net cash + securities of ¥7.00bn as of end-September. ¥7bn of net cash + securities comes to ¥8,933/share. Tangible Book Value Per Share is ¥12,233. Independent shareholders need to speak up. If you do not, you tacitly approve.

  • This is an unpleasant MBO. It is yet another in a long line which makes MBOs look bad. The Chairman owns 0.5+%. Crossholders own 43%. They are counting on getting retail holders over the line, and are paying a whopping 0.87x net cash and securities, and getting the other third of the business assets for free (including all the cashflow which spins out from it). The buyers are getting a loan from one of the cross-holders for more than the purchase price. It's free explicitly.
  • The stock has traded almost 20% of the shares out since the announcement. All of that has traded above terms. It is unlikely that those shareholders would want to take ¥7800/share.
  • If you own it, make noise. If you do not, it is entertaining, and shareholders may get a bump, but the stock is so illiquid that it simply doesn't matter for most people other than as a curiosity. But those are often worth watching.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri discussed Gome Electrical Appliances (493 HK)'s buybacks in Gome Retail: Easy Prey.

On 16 November, Australia-based Childcare company Think Childcare (TNK AU) announced they had received a Non-binding Indicative Proposal from the PE arm of Australian investments firm Alceon Group. The Offer Price is A$1.35/share and the form of consideration could be either cash or a combination of cash and shares in an unlisted newly-formed entity. This Deal values the Target company at an enterprise value of A$300mn and a market cap of A$82mn. In Think Childcare (TNK AU) : Takeover Proposal From Alceon Group Seems Light, Janaghan recommended avoiding this Deal at least until it becomes binding.

It has been nearly 11 months since Delivery Hero SE (DHER GY) first announced that it will acquire Korea's Woowa Brothers (Baemin), which is the largest prepared food delivery service provider in Korea. Korea's FTC finally announced that Delivery Hero would need to sell Yogiyo in order to receive the final approval to acquire Woowa Brothers. Link to Douglas' insight: Korea's FTC Requires Delivery Hero to Sell Yogiyo In Order to Acquire Woowa Brothers

Bloomberg reported that Nissan Motor (7201 JP) is exploring the possibility of selling some or all of its stake in junior alliance partner Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP). While this rumour guarantees nothing, Mio Kato believes the continued earnings weakness from the alliance members increases rather than decreases the chance of a breakup. Link to Mio's insight: Mitsubishi Motors – Rumoured Stake Sale by Nissan Will Renew Alliance Breakup Concerns

Wal Mart Stores (WMT US) will sell 85% of its stake in Seiyu, the Japanese general merchandise store (GMS) chain to KKR & Co Inc (KKR US) and Rakuten Inc (4755 JP). The deal is a win for KKR of course, but much more interestingly, is a huge win for Rakuten. Links to Michael Causton's insight: The Walmart Japan Sell Off: A Huge Gain for Rakuten and Oshadhi's insight: KKR & Rakuten Join Hands to Acquire the Supermarket & Hypermarket Chain Seiyu

EVENTS

Will Index Providers Turn HK Into an Emerging Market?

Travis discussed an article titled "China's hostile meddling threatens Hong Kong market demotion" in which Mark Makepeace - previously the CEO of index provider FTSE Russell - opined that index providers "will be watching Hong Kong closely", warning that if things deteriorate, there may be pressure to classify Hong Kong as an Emerging Market.
  • With strong institutional infrastructure and generically sound legal bases, a strong currency system and freedom of exchange and lack of capital controls, and generally fair rules towards foreign investors, Hong Kong ticks all the boxes to be a Developed Market. The only way that Hong Kong might be turned into an "Emerging Market" is if capital controls are implemented making it significantly more difficult to
  • The only way Travis could imagine that happening in any "near-term" (here to 10-20yrs out) is if the Hong Kong Dollar is merged with the Chinese yuan. Given the lack of institutional infrastructure on the renmimbi, the fact that this would likely interfere with the tenets of the Basic Law, and would significantly impede the ability of Chinese companies with bases in Hong Kong to access international capital markets, he expects this is a non-starter.
  • If it were to happen, net flows would be less of a problem than the capital controls which caused the change, and Travis expects that if it were to happen, a number of companies which would be affected might move their legal jurisdiction to Singapore or elsewhere to avoid becoming "Emerging Market companies."

(link to Travis' insight: Will Index Providers Turn HK Into an Emerging Market? What Would Happen?)

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar discusses new anti-takeover rules introduced by the Spanish government in Enhanced Limits to Investments in Spanish Companies.

M&A - US

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) (Mkt Cap: $464bn; Liquidity: $24.3bn)

On 16 November, it was announced by S&P Global that Tesla Motors (TSLA US) would be added to the S&P500 after five consecutive quarters of profit, in a move which was widely expected. In an added announcement which was perhaps less expected was that S&P was conducting a market consultation to see whether it should be included one shot, or if the inclusion should be divided into two events (with three different possibilities suggested - 25/75 added 14 and 21 December, 33/67, or 50/50 added on those two dates. To reduce impact, the right answer is 50/50 or 33/67.

  • A lot of large "quick-to-buy and quick-to-sell" funds have increased their sizes in the last nine months as the S&P500 inclusion event became more likely. I expect some of those will sell. HOWEVER, Travis expects that most people did not expect the number to be $51bn, and I expect most people do not expect it to be higher than that. He would expect the number to be closer to 18-21% of float so another 10-30% on top of the "Calculated Funding Amount."
  • It is quite difficult to handicap how much has pre-positioned on the name or how much extra "non-float" capacity might be brought forth either in the form of an At-The-Market Offering to raise capital while the stock is strong, or in the form of insider/non-float selling.
  • The event is a One Time Event. This encourages those who have been waiting for it to sell, but it also means float is effectively irretrievably reduced, and the rest of the world who expects a certain amount of liquidity will not find it. To Travis this means that shorting the inclusion may not be a good long-term strategy despite the fact that the company has all manner of other issues facing it as more ably discussed elsewhere on this platform.
  • Travis would tend to want to avoid. But a priori, Travis expects the inclusion event to see a higher price than US$439/share because of the significant risk of tracking error on high volatility which could come if index funds don't buy. He would think about using short-dated options to gain my exposure towards inclusion.
Links to:
Travis' insight: The Great Tesla Ascension
China Biologic Products (CBPO US) (Mkt Cap: $4.6bn; Liquidity: $11mn)

14 months ago, almost to the day, CBPO announced the receipt of a preliminary non-binding proposal from Beachhead Holdings, CITIC, PW Medtech, Parfield International, Hillhouse, and V-Sciences Investments for US$120/share, in cash. CBPO has now entered into a definitive merger agreement, also at US$120/share. The merger is conditional on an affirmative vote from shareholders representing at least two-thirds of the shares out, and that the aggregate quantity of dissenting shares shall be less than 8% of shares out. As of the date of merger agreement, members of the Buyer Consortium (including Pw Medtech (1358 HK)) and the Rollover Management Members, beneficially own shares representing ~68.84% of shares out.

  • This 8% dissension condition attached to the Merger is akin to a 10% blocking stake in a Scheme. In my insights Trina Solar: Appraisal Rights Judgment Another Setback for Dissenters and Homecoming For Chinese Companies: Appraisal Rights & Fair Value, I discussed the five judgments to date handed down by the Grand Cayman Court to determine a fair value for dissenting shareholders. The uplift versus time value of money in four of the decided cases is less than ideal. To me, dissenters are not incentivized to pursue appraisal rights based on case law.
  • Using various Chinese ADR precedents, this could potentially be wrapped up by early-April or around 4.5 months. The Trade: I see the gross/annualised spread at 4.4%/11.7%. This looks like a pretty clean deal for around four-five months of work.
In Baidu: Acquisition of YY Live Is More Beneficial to JOYY than Baidu, Shifara Samsudeen discussed Baidu (BIDU US) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with JOYY (YY US) to acquire its domestic video-based entertainment live streaming business in China (known as YY Live). But then Muddy Waters waded into the discussion.

TOPIX INCLUSIONS!

Rarejob Inc (6096 JP) (Mkt Cap: $0.2bn; Liquidity: $3mn)

TSE Mothers-listed Rarejob announced after market-close on 13th Nov 2020 they had received approval to move to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 20th November 2020. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 29th December 2020.

  • Janaghan estimates the Inclusion quantity to be 610,000-732,000 shares. This translates to an estimated Inclusion Size of ¥1.34-1.60bn and an estimated Impact of 5-6 days of volume going by 3-month ADV.
  • This is a fast-growing business. Revenue and EBITDA CAGR are projected to be 18.5% and 45.8% respectively from FY19 to FY21E. It is currently trading at EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples of 3.6x and 21.1x, respectively, which are much higher than the estimated medians of 0.9x and 5.4x for peers (other ed-tech companies).
  • Janaghan would be LONG between now and the Inclusion Date (29th December 2020). He believes that the trading range of ¥2,000-¥2,750 already accounts for TSE1-promotion speculation and I do not expect the share price to deviate excessively from this range during this holding period

(link to Janaghan's insight: TOPIX Inclusion (6096 JP): Rarejob Inc)

I.K Co Ltd (2722 JP) (Mkt Cap: $0.1bn; Liquidity: $2mn)

IKC announced today after market close they had received approval (J-only) to move from the Second Section to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 4th December 2020. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 28th January 2021. Janaghan estimates the Inclusion Size to be ¥0.71 - 0.85bn and the Impact to be 3-4 days of volume going by 3-month ADV.

  • Revenue, EBIT, and NP CAGRs are projected to be 6%, 19%, and 16% respectively from FY20 to FY23E. On an LTM basis, I.K Co.,Ltd.'s EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, and PER multiples of 0.4x, 7.8x, and 13.0x are fairly inexpensive on a growth-adjusted basis and are very close to our estimated average for peers.
  • Janaghan would recommend avoiding this event. "Small Size Small Impact" (RED) category events exhibit extreme variance in outcomes and for that reason, he also recommends not shorting the stock until the Inclusion Event is complete. Given the very small market cap of this company, he would not recommend shorting the stock at all.

(link to Janaghan's insight: TOPIX Inclusion (2722 JP): I.K Co Ltd)

Gremz Inc (3150 JP) (Mkt Cap: $0.5bn; Liquidity: $6mn)

Gremz (pronounced "Grimss"), announced after the close on 16 November 2020 they had received approval to move to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 24th November 2020. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 29th December 2020.

  • The inclusion is a nice event, but between the tachiaigai bunbai and now, on 26 October, the company raised its H1 earnings forecast. It raised its revenue forecast by 1%, OP by 29.5%, and Net Profit by 36%.
  • On a fundamental basis, you could not pay Travis to be short this stock even if the TOPIX inclusion parameters were weak. He would recommend being long or staying long the stock

(link to Travis' insight: Gremz (3150 JP) - TOPIX Inclusion Announced - Up 35% So Far. More To Go?)

HONG KONG IPOs: LOCK UP EXPIRIES

The role of lock-ups in IPOs is, as one journal put it, a "commitment device to alleviate moral hazard problems". Lock-ups can be entered into and negotiated with underwriters, as is the case for secondary listings for NetEase (9999 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK), amongst others. For primary listings in Hong Kong, there are standard rules as to the lock-up duration. This is typically 6 months.

  • Every week in this Event SPACE wrap, I flag large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves that are often outside normal market transactions, as seen below. Large movement(s) concerning recently listed companies are likely lock-up related.
  • This insight looks at companies that have been listed for nearly six months or 12 months, as a guide to when insiders/controlling shareholders are permitted to sell, potentially depressing prices and creating an overhang.

(link to my insight: Hong Kong IPOs: Lock-Up Expiries)

INDEX REBALS

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance. Nikkei announced that Sharp Corp (6753 JP) would replace NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) with effect from the open of trading on 2 December. Sharp was deleted from the Nikkei 225 in August 2016 and now makes its way back into the index after 4 years. Links to Travis' insight: NTT Docomo Delisting; Nikkei 225 Replacement Is SHARP (6753) - With a Surprise, and Brian's insight: Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Sharp (6753) Replaces NTT DoCoMo.

Based on Sunac Services (1516 HK)'s offer price of HK$11.6/share, the net proceeds from the global offering are estimated to be HK$7,859.7m. The company will receive additional net proceeds of HK$1,182.5m if the overallotment option is exercised. Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) trackers will receive shares in Sunac Services by virtue of their holding of Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK). We estimate passive trackers will need to sell around 1.1m shares at the close of trading on 19 November, though some of the selling could be done prior to the close. Link to Brian's insight: Sunac Services (1516 HK) - Listing Tomorrow; Passives Need to Sell at the Close.

After the inclusion of Alibaba Group (9988 HK) in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) and FTSE China 50 indices, the big listing switch from Alibaba Group (BABA US) to Alibaba Group (9988 HK) in the FTSE and MSCI indices could be less than 6 months away. Link to Brian's insight: Alibaba (9988 HK): FTSE and MSCI Switch from BABA Coming.

FTSE GEIS Index Rebalance Preview. Stocks that listed recently and could be included in the index are Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) (3347 HK), Smoore International (6969 HK), Yeahka Limited (9923 HK), Dada Nexus Ltd (DADA US), Kingsoft Cloud (KC US), Li Auto Inc. (LI US), Agora Inc. (API US), Burning Rock Biotech (BNR US), Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US), Mindspace Business Parks REIT (MBP IN), SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS), Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB) and Modalis Therapeutics (4883 JP). Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) (3347 HK), Smoore International (6969 HK) and Kingsoft Cloud (KC US) are also inclusions in the MSCI China index and passive funds tracking the MSCI Standard indices will need to buy the stocks at the close of trading on 30 November. Link to Brian's insight: FTSE GEIS Index Rebalance Preview: IPOs and J-REITs.

Sensex Index Rebalance. In yet another pandemic induced change, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) has been added to the index and Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) has been deleted. Link to Brian's insight: Sensex Index Rebalance: Dr. Reddy IN, Tata Steel OUT.

M&A - EUROPE

In Nexi SpA (NEXI IM): The Nets Purchase Is a Good Deal... I See a Rerate in Short and Longer Term, Patryk Basiewicz discussed Nexi SpA (NEXI IM), the leading Payment company in Italy reaching an agreement to purchase Nets, a European peer, who has roots in the Nordics but recently has expanded into Central, Eastern and Southern Europe. It is an all-share deal, but with Nexi assuming EUR1.8bn of Nets' debt. The headline value of Nets is EUR7.8bn, but with an earnout component of EUR250, the headline value is closer to EUR8bn.

OTHER M&A & EVENT UPDATES

CCASS

My ongoing series flags large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves which are often outside normal market transactions. These may be indicative of share pledges. Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings.

Often these moves can easily be explained - the placement of new shares, rights issue, movements subsequent to a takeover, lock-up expiry, amongst others. For those mentioned below, I could not find an obvious reason for the CCASS move.

Name

% chg

Into

Out of

Summit Ascent Holdings (102 HK) 44.92%SunOutside CCASS
Fire Rock (1909 HK)32.81%MSOutside CCASS
CBK (8428 HK)10.00%KingswayOutside CCASS
Perennial International (725 HK) 75.00%UBSOutside CCASS
Oriental Payment (8613 HK)32.50%China MerchGayang
Source: HKEx

The following large movement(s) concern recently listed companies, and therefore are (likely) lock-up related.

Name

% chg

Into

Out of

IVD Medical (1931 HK) 15.68%Get NiceAMTD
Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) 13.23%HSBCOutside CCASS
Neusoft Education (9616 HK) 18.78%CLSAOutside CCASS
Venus MedTech (2500 HK) 11.26%CitiOutside CCASS
Source: HKEx
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