In today’s briefing:
- Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s NBIO Was Rightly Rejected, but This Is Not Done Yet
- Pacific Current (PAC AU)’s Reverse Merger With River Riles Roc Capital
- India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (8 Sep 2026)
- Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish
- Pacific Current (PAC AU): A Strategic Review as Roc Partners Emerges as a Jilted Suitor
- Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) — Priced As If Today Lasts Forever?
- Uncovered Thai Stocks: PLAT (2Q26)
- Migalo Holdings (5535 Jp) – Await Re-Rating as Positive Catalysts Emerge
Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s NBIO Was Rightly Rejected, but This Is Not Done Yet
- Ingenia Communities (INA AU) has rejected a non-binding proposal from Warburg Pincus at A$4.75, a 30.1% premium to the last close and a 11.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The timing is opportunistic, and the offer is light as it implies no control premium and is below the 52-week high and sell-side price targets.
- The proposal is conditional on abandoning the Peet Ltd (PPC AU) offer, which is facilitated by a fiduciary-out clause. An offer around A$5.15 is needed to test the Board’s resolve.
Pacific Current (PAC AU)’s Reverse Merger With River Riles Roc Capital
- Back in 2023, asset manager Pacific Current (PAC AU) fielded Offers from Regal and GQG, neither of which gained traction: GQG Mulls Offer As Pacific Current Balks At Regal’s NBIO
- River Capital, which initially teamed up with Regal, steadily mopped up shares, and currently holds ~43%. Late-August, River and PAC announced a backdoor merger via new shares at A$13/share.
- ROC Capital pitched an Offer for PAC back in May. Apparently River sat in on negotiations. Roc reckons River used those discussions to its advantage. PAC sees it otherwise.
India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (8 Sep 2026)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlights: In India’s financial sector, currently two pair trade opportunities persist.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish
- Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31.
- MOO saw the most dramatic buildup – short interest tripled in seven days.
- At the other end, MSFT shorts nearly disappeared entirely, and GME saw rapid covering ahead of its September 8 earnings.
Pacific Current (PAC AU): A Strategic Review as Roc Partners Emerges as a Jilted Suitor
- In response to an AFR article, Pacific Current (PAC AU) belatedly disclosed that it rejected a non-binding proposal from Roc Partners in May 2026.
- PAC is currently undergoing a strategic review to consider River Capital’s proposal alongside a sale or delisting/liquidation of holdings.
- Both offers are unattractive. PAC is a cash box (A$9.23 per share) with the boutique portfolio providing option value (boutiques valued at FV P/NAV of 0.27x at last close).
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) — Priced As If Today Lasts Forever?
- Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) earnings engine remains intact—CASA above 85%, loans regaining share, and ROE near 22%—despite an NIM recovery that remains unproven.
- Our fair value range is Rp4,928–Rp7,965, with Base Case at Rp6,520 versus the Rp6,700 reference price—downside skews larger than upside.
- The 2024 peak price was supported by NIM expansion (+30bps) and CIR improvement (-2.6pp); today, NIM is 50bps lower and loan growth has slowed to ~8%, narrowing upside.
Uncovered Thai Stocks: PLAT (2Q26)
- The efficiency is very good when looking at the growth in sales relative to the growth in assets
- The company has delivered strong sales growth, which is essential for long-term value creation
- The stock trades at a very attractive valuation
Migalo Holdings (5535 Jp) – Await Re-Rating as Positive Catalysts Emerge
- On August 6, MIGALO HOLDINGS Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q1 FY2027 (April–June) earnings results.
- Net sales increased 4.0% YoY to JPY 14,840 mn, and operating profit decreased 0.2% YoY to JPY 973 mn.
- Across the Group, fixed costs increased as the Company strengthened its growth foundation—primarily through personnel investments.
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