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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Allied Blenders & Distillers, Games Workshop Group PLC, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Volkswagen , United Parks and Resorts, Manchester United and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Allied Blenders and Distillers – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation
  • Games Workshop Group – FY24 profit estimates beaten
  • Content of Disclosures Is Important, but the Focus Has Shifted to Whether the Goals Can Be Achieved
  • Volkswagen Ag (VWAPY) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024
  • United Parks & Resorts Inc (PRKS) – Thursday, Mar 21, 2024
  • Manchester United Plc (MANU) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024


Allied Blenders and Distillers – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY22.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about various aspects of the company. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and our thoughts on valuation.

Games Workshop Group – FY24 profit estimates beaten

By Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group’s FY24 trading update provided a nice surprise on the revenue side, broadly equally split between core and licensing, and an even nicer surprise for PBT, suggesting an improvement in gross margin. We have upgraded our FY24 estimates to be consistent with the indicated figures and marginally increase our estimates for FY25, which reverts to a 52-week period accounting period.


Content of Disclosures Is Important, but the Focus Has Shifted to Whether the Goals Can Be Achieved

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with higher foreign shareholdings have superior board practices, suggesting that overseas investor engagement played an important role in improving management that resulted in return on capital.
  • Clues to changes in management reform can be found in the percentage of independent board members, the percentage of female board members, and policy shareholdings/total assets.
  • While the substance of the goals is important, the focus has shifted to management’s strong will to achieve the goals to raise valuations and return on capital.

Volkswagen Ag (VWAPY) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Volkswagen’s US ADRs (VWAPY) have underperformed in the past 5 years, despite a 3% increase with dividends
  • Company’s growth guidance and margins are weaker compared to peers, leading to undervaluation of stock
  • Trading at low multiples of forward earnings and free cash flow, recent free cash flow guidance for 2024 was unimpressive; preferred shares receive extra dividends but no voting rights

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


United Parks & Resorts Inc (PRKS) – Thursday, Mar 21, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) is proposing a $500 million share repurchase authorization to decrease share count and float significantly at current prices.
  • The buyback, if approved, could be completed by the end of 2024 and potentially drive double-digit EBITDA growth, leading to an 80% increase in stock price to $100.
  • With a leverage of 2.5x EBITDA, the company may also be a candidate for sale or privatization, with Hill Path ownership increasing to 49% and potential for significant premium buyouts.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Manchester United Plc (MANU) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Manchester United is a well-known football club with a large fan base and diverse revenue sources
  • The club is controlled by the Glazer family through Class B shares but Sir Jim Ratcliffe acquired a 25% stake in MANU
  • Ratcliffe’s investment could signal a shift in control to SJR, making the stock appealing to investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 21st): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 21st): Tencent, Meituan, Aia
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 14th): BHP, Champion Iron, Woolworths


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 21st): Tencent, Meituan, Aia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 21st based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 14th): BHP, Champion Iron, Woolworths

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Champion Iron, Woolworths.

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Daily Brief ESG: Content of Disclosures Is Important and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Content of Disclosures Is Important, but the Focus Has Shifted to Whether the Goals Can Be Achieved


Content of Disclosures Is Important, but the Focus Has Shifted to Whether the Goals Can Be Achieved

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with higher foreign shareholdings have superior board practices, suggesting that overseas investor engagement played an important role in improving management that resulted in return on capital.
  • Clues to changes in management reform can be found in the percentage of independent board members, the percentage of female board members, and policy shareholdings/total assets.
  • While the substance of the goals is important, the focus has shifted to management’s strong will to achieve the goals to raise valuations and return on capital.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Not much has changed since our latest Int’l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled “Buy the Pullback.” 
  • We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
  • Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.

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Daily Brief ECM: Allied Blenders and Distillers – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Allied Blenders and Distillers – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation
  • Tianju Dihe Technology IPO: Limited Room For Multiple Expansion Despite Healthy Growth


Allied Blenders and Distillers – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY22.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about various aspects of the company. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and our thoughts on valuation.

Tianju Dihe Technology IPO: Limited Room For Multiple Expansion Despite Healthy Growth

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Tianju Dihe Technology, a provider of integrated API-enabled data exchange services in China, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$400M in June.
  • The initial public offering is expected to be priced at HK$83.33 per H share, valuing the technology company at ~HK$4.2B or $535M based on 50.1M outstanding shares.  
  • Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~3.8M H shares, representing 80% of the offer shares or ~8% of the total outstanding shares.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Samsung and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space…
  • Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/06/2024


Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space…

By William Keating

  • Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely trigger mainstream memory shortages by EOY 2024 
  • Both Nanya and Winbond are well positioned to benefit from any industry-wide shortages
  • If Samsung can sort out its HBM woes, it will be line for a re-rating

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

By Victor Galliano

  • Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion
  • We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group
  • We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/06/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C: target price of £0.65 per share: Flow rate of high impact horizontal well above expectations – The first CN Horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) from the Carrizales Norte B pad has been on production since 14 June at a rate of 3,150 bbl/d (~1.6 mbbl/d net) with less than 1% water cut while still recovering load fluid.
  • The flow rate is currently constrained with the ESP operating on the minimum setting.
  • The flow rate is above expectations.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Edelweiss: Co-Lending Led Credit Business Is Now Gaining Momentum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Edelweiss: Co-Lending Led Credit Business Is Now Gaining Momentum
  • MMG Rights Issue – Prospectus Issued
  • MMA Offshore Ltd – Increased Scheme Offer of $2.70/Share; Trading Update
  • Burford Capital Ltd (BUR) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024
  • IQVIA Deep Dive
  • Volkswagen Ag (VWAPY) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024
  • Games Workshop Group – FY24 profit estimates beaten
  • Migalo Holdings (5535 JP) – Full-Year FY2024/3 Earnings Review
  • Rent.com.au Ltd – Additional capital raised, RentPay customers up 64%
  • Baltic Classifieds Group (BCG LN) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024


Edelweiss: Co-Lending Led Credit Business Is Now Gaining Momentum

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Edelweiss reported a strong Q4FY24 led by robust performance across businesses. The asset management business continues to be the lead performer. Insurance businesses are also growing at an industry-leading pace.
  • Most notably, the credit business seems to be gaining momentum now, led by co-lending. MSME co-lending disbursements tripled while housing finance (HFC) co-lending disbursements doubled in FY24. 
  • To unlock value and reduce debt at the corporate level, Edelweiss is planning a minority stake sale in the Alternative Asset Management business.

MMG Rights Issue – Prospectus Issued

By Rikki Malik

  • The stock price has corrected to the anticipated level and rebounded
  • Dates announced for acceptance and payment for the rights issue
  • There may be more weakness once the rights shares start  trading

MMA Offshore Ltd – Increased Scheme Offer of $2.70/Share; Trading Update

By MA Moelis Australia

  • Cyan MMA Holdings Pty Ltd (Cyan) has increased its scheme consideration to $2.70 cash per share, up from $2.60 per share and has designated the offer as best and final.
  • A supplementary Scheme Booklet is expected to be released 21 June; scheme voting is for 1 July.
  • MMA Offshore Ltd (MRM) recently released a 2H24 trading update, noting earnings visibility and performance across the current half has continued to improve.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Burford Capital Ltd (BUR) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Burford Capital is a leading provider of litigation finance with a market capitalization of $2.5bn and strong revenue and profit figures
  • The company, led by innovative founders, has received positive assessments from customers, ex-employees, law firms, and peers
  • Burford has a proven track record of competitive advantage in revenue, market share, innovation, customer service, and underwriting skill, with potential for improved returns on capital and vast growth opportunities.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


IQVIA Deep Dive

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Back in 2016, IMS Health and Quintiles went through a merger of equals to form “QuintilesIMS” which was later renamed to be “IQVIA” in 2017.
  • “I” and “Q” stand for IMS Health and Quintiles respectively and “VIA” means “by way of”.
  • Since IMS and Quintiles both used to be separate public companies, let me discuss these two businesses separately at first before getting into the details of their post-merger status.

Volkswagen Ag (VWAPY) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Volkswagen’s US ADRs (VWAPY) have underperformed in the past 5 years, despite a 3% increase with dividends
  • Company’s growth guidance and margins are weaker compared to peers, leading to undervaluation of stock
  • Trading at low multiples of forward earnings and free cash flow, recent free cash flow guidance for 2024 was unimpressive; preferred shares receive extra dividends but no voting rights

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Games Workshop Group – FY24 profit estimates beaten

By Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group’s FY24 trading update provided a nice surprise on the revenue side, broadly equally split between core and licensing, and an even nicer surprise for PBT, suggesting an improvement in gross margin. We have upgraded our FY24 estimates to be consistent with the indicated figures and marginally increase our estimates for FY25, which reverts to a 52-week period accounting period.


Migalo Holdings (5535 JP) – Full-Year FY2024/3 Earnings Review

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On May 9, 2024, Migalo Holdings Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its full- year FY2024/3 earnings results.
  • Sales rose 14.5% YoY to ¥42,672 mn, and operating profit fell 14.4% YoY to ¥2,500 mn, largely in line with the Company’s full-year forecast calling for sales to rise 12.7% YoY to ¥42,000 mn and operating profit to drop 14.4% YoY to ¥2,500 mn.
  • The Company will pay a year-end dividend of ¥45 per share, including a commemorative dividend of ¥5 per share to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the founding of its predecessor, Property Agent, Inc.

Rent.com.au Ltd – Additional capital raised, RentPay customers up 64%

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update report on purpose-led proptech Rent.com.au (ASX:RNT) following its fully-underwritten entitlement offer to raise $2.5m at $0.02/share, with one quoted option for every two shares issued.
  • Separately and on June 3, RNT provided a trading update in which it announced that RentPay’s customers at the end of May were up 64% to 9,271.
  • We have incorporated the capital raise in our forecasts, but having already modelled an additional $2.5m raise in H2 FY25, the impact to our forecasts is only due at the EPS line.

Baltic Classifieds Group (BCG LN) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • BCG is the leading online classified group in the Baltics with 14 portals across three countries
  • Management team focused on improving monetization for high revenue growth
  • Expected significant value per share growth with exposure to high-growth Baltic markets and plans to increase take-rates, presenting an intriguing opportunity for investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #33 – Dazzling Positivity on the Horizon and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #33 – Dazzling Positivity on the Horizon


Crypto Moves #33 – Dazzling Positivity on the Horizon

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Today’s edition of Crypto Moves builds on this week’s Crypto Crisp, where we advocated a bullish outlook on the crypto market.
  • I have examined all of our charts to find every reason to maintain a long position in the current crypto market. Let us dive in.
  • From this week onwards, we anticipate a significant increase in liquidity over the next few months. This liquidity forecast model has been highly accurate in recent months.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just
  • CrowdStrike Joins S&P 500
  • EQD | The KOSPI 200 Is Ready to Pullback (Again)


CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just

By David Blennerhassett

  • At the AGM yesterday, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)‘s director Elizabeth Kan was re-appointed, but by a wafer-thin margin: 29.97% of shares out FOR, and 29.44% AGAINST.
  • Stripping out Victor Chu’s stake (~2%?) and China Merchant’s (27.6%), or collectively ~29.6% of shares out, it’s fair to say the remainder of the shareholder register wants her out. 
  • CMCDI is currently trading at a 55% discount to the latest NAV (as at 31st May 2024) of HK$30.42/share.  Argyle continues to add to its position. 

CrowdStrike Joins S&P 500

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On June 24, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) will officially join the S&P 500, which follows strong financial results and guidance. Investors anticipated this inclusion, driven by improved profitability and operational efficiency.
  • The volume traded has so far been on average 2x the 3-month daily average prior to the news. The enduring effect will be on liquidity (hedging basket for index exposure).
  • CrowdStrike’s inclusion in the S&P 500 index increases the representation of pure cybersecurity stocks. Median IBES consensus PT is $400 (7.5% upside).

EQD | The KOSPI 200 Is Ready to Pullback (Again)

By Nico Rosti

  • After 3 weeks up in a row the KOSPI 200 is ripe for a pullback.
  • The reversal is probably going to begin this coming week.
  • If the index goes higher, look at 391 resistance targets to initiate SHORT trades or to cover your LONGs.

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Daily Brief Macro: Liquidity Watch: The $ liquidity outlook remains solid for Q3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Liquidity Watch: The $ liquidity outlook remains solid for Q3
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Jun 2024
  • [ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues
  • UK: Retail Seasonally Recovers in Dry May
  • CX Daily: Rough Market Doomed Syngenta Listing Plans
  • HEW: Bias Determines Data Dependence


Liquidity Watch: The $ liquidity outlook remains solid for Q3

By Andreas Steno

  • The liquidity outlook always makes for interesting discussions and after a few minor hiccups in liquidity proxies both in the USD space and the GBP space, we are getting increasingly cautious central bank behavior to see in the liquidity space.
  • We therefore see generally benign liquidity conditions ahead for H2-2024 in sharp contrast to predictions from the nay-sayers!Let’s have a look at the details.
  • Liquidity conditions have generally improved since the drawdown during tax season in April/May and we are trending higher now.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Jun 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • China’s Economic Performance: Despite negative media reports, China shows strong year-on-year growth in industrial production and retail sales, outperforming other major economies.
  • Misreported Inflation: China meets the 2% inflation target better than most, with misconceptions about deflation being clarified in recent reports.

  • Japan’s Economic Struggles: Japan’s export growth appears positive in yen but declines in USD terms, reflecting weak domestic demand.


[ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues

By Suhas Reddy

  • The gap between OPEC and IEA’s oil demand forecasts widened: OPEC kept its 2024 forecast at 2.25m bpd, while IEA lowered its forecast to 960k bpd from 1.1m bpd.
  • Europe’s attempt to cut Russian LNG imports grows stronger, as the French Senate Committee recommends cutting Russian dependence.
  • Since 17/June, Energy majors began recovering. Berkshire increased its holdings in Occidental, while Shell expanded its LNG market access by acquiring Pavilion Energy.

UK: Retail Seasonally Recovers in Dry May

By Phil Rush

  • UK retail sales more than fully recovered from April’s crash in May, although neither move looks like a fundamental signal. The early Easter explains half the volatility.
  • A return to a seasonably average number of rainy days and warmth explains the other half of May’s resurgence and possibly most of the substantial surprise to the consensus.
  • Consumer weakness seems asymmetrically relevant to the dovishly biased MPC. The rebound will not prevent it from announcing a premature rate cut in August.

CX Daily: Rough Market Doomed Syngenta Listing Plans

By Caixin Global

  • Syngenta / In Depth: Rough market doomed Syngenta listing plans
  • Boeing / Boeing’s setbacks open the skies for China’s C919 to take off

  • Russia-North Korea / Russia and North Korea have ‘normal needs’ to develop their relationship, China’s Vice Foreign Minister says


HEW: Bias Determines Data Dependence

By Phil Rush

  • Services inflation exceeded expectations in the EA and the UK, leading to the BoE’s first rate cut from June to August. Retail sales also saw a resurgence.
  • Monetary policy decisions are due next week for Sweden, the Philippines, Mexico, and Colombia.
  • Data highlights for the upcoming period include inflation in the US, France, Italy, and Spain, along with the Euro area’s ESI.

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