Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• SK Hynix and Micron stocks were lagging TSMC and Nvidia as it took ~2 years for HBM to suck up enough Commodity DRAM capacity to stabilize the Commodity market
• That’s now done, we’re just at the beginning of spectacular HBM growth for at least 2 more years. The reasons are known: density increases, speed increases, dies thinner…
• Stocks: keep or buy Micron and SK Hynix. Samsung remains unattractive imo

• In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2025.
• The preferred companies’ share price discount (relative to the common shares) on the 27 pairs below was 36% at the end of September 2025.
• On a longer timeframe (3-5 years), this discount could narrow further to the 20-25% range, which provides additional opportunities for the Korean preferred shares to further make relative gains.

• New World announced FY25 results, market reaction was initially negative, due to losses to shareholders.  Stock was down 10% post open but rebounded quickly to recover all the losses
• However, we think the market has neglected the other positives: strong contract sales, resilient IP earnings, improved total debt, stabilized gearing and lower borrow cost
• Market is forward-looking, we think NWD, as a leveraged play, will benefit the most in rate cut cycle.  At current valuation (0.12x PB) – we continue to stay bullish

Molina Healthcare is a managed care organization specializing in Medicaid plans, with a market share of about 6% of the US population in Medicaid

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• OpenAI, Samsung & SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop
• MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients
• TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node 

• Despite its 96% price appreciation since our initiation, United Laboratories is still trading on a 8.7 FPE, and a 5.5 EV/EVITDA.
• A US FDA GLP-1 approval and a potential $ 1.8bn deal with Novo Nordisk demonstrates its successful diabetes and obesity strategy.
• With over 80 drugs in the pipeline to be delivered over the next five years, we believe that TUL is about to experience a very material increase in topline growth.

• ADF Foods is shifting from an agency-based distribution model to a brand-led, in-house manufacturing approach, focusing on the U.S. frozen food segment to improve margins and supply control.
• This strategic pivot enhances margin stability, mitigates raw material and geopolitical risks, and deepens market penetration in mainstream international retail, positioning ADF for sustainable long-term growth and profitability.
• Market focus should move from export volatility to ADF’s brand premiumization and successful US greenfield execution, the key drivers of sustainable growth and long-term re-rating.

• Vicor is a highly innovative designer and manufacturer of high-density, high-efficiency modular power solutions, positioning it as a key enabler for demanding applications in artificial intelligence (AI), high-performance computing (HPC), automotive, and aerospace.
• The company’s proprietary technologies and vertical integration provide a technological moat; however, the business faces significant risks from customer concentration, intense competition from larger semiconductor players, and market cyclicality.
• Financial performance has been volatile, with recent margin compression and analyst downgrades creating uncertainty, yet the company maintains a strong balance sheet and is poised to capitalize on long-term secular growth trends in electrification and data center power demands.

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• BigBear.ai is a specialized provider of AI-powered decision intelligence solutions, with a primary focus on the U.S. defense, intelligence, and homeland security sectors. Its established relationships and expertise in these niche markets provide a competitive advantage.
• The company is in a high-growth industry but faces significant financial headwinds. It has a history of substantial net losses and negative operating cash flow, indicating a high-risk profile. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with recent quarterly performance showing a year-over-year decline.
• Future success is heavily dependent on securing large-scale government contracts and successfully expanding into the commercial sector to diversify revenue. The company’s strong balance sheet, with a significant cash position, is intended to fund investments to capture these opportunities, but execution remains a key uncertainty.

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• Non-Operational Entity in Financial Distress: Mysore Paper Mills (MSPM) has ceased all core manufacturing operations, with paper production halted in 2015 and its sugar division in 2016. The company is characterized by a prolonged history of substantial financial losses, negative margins, and a complete erosion of net worth, rendering it a financially unviable entity in its current state.
• Government-Led Revival Efforts via Privatization: The Government of Karnataka (GoK), the majority shareholder, has deemed a public sector revival unfeasible and is actively pursuing leasing the company’s assets and operations to a private entity. However, multiple tender attempts since 2017 have failed to attract bidders, highlighting significant challenges and perceived risks by potential investors.
• High Uncertainty Against a Favorable Industry Backdrop: The company’s future is entirely contingent on the success of the government’s leasing strategy, which faces high uncertainty. This contrasts with the positive outlook for the broader Indian paper industry, which is experiencing robust growth driven by demand in packaging and education. Any potential value in MSPM lies in its physical assets and the speculative possibility of a successful operational turnaround under a new private operator.

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